China Economic Data Offers Mixed Picture

China's official data painted a mixed picture for growth in November as industrial production posted a faster expansion and house prices fell at slower pace, while retail sales growth softened highlighting the need for additional stimulus to retain sustainable growth.

Industrial production expanded 5.4 percent from the previous year, which was slightly faster than the 5.3 percent increase in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Monday. The rate came in line with expectations.

By contrast, retail sales growth weakened more-than-expected to 3.0 percent in November from 4.8 percent in October. Growth was seen at 4.6 percent.

During January to November, fixed asset investment showed an increase of 3.3 percent from the previous year. This was slightly weaker than the 3.4 percent expansion posted during January to October.

The NBS said the job market remained generally stable in the first eleven months of 2024. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0 percent in November. Further, the statistical office said the fall in commercial residential homes in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased at a slower pace in November.

The deceleration in November will probably prove temporary with growth likely to pick up again over the coming months as policy support continues to be stepped up, economists at Capital Economics.

Nonetheless, economists said they doubt that stimulus can deliver anything more than a short-lived improvement, not least because the current strength of export demand is unlikely to last once President Trump starts to put some of his tariff threats into action.

Although the overall activity data unsurprisingly remained sluggish, it provided a positive signal that the property market could be bottoming out, ING economist Lynn Song said. With only one month of data still to come, China will likely manage to complete its "around 5%" growth objective for 2024, the economist added.

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