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21時間前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 25, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 300.8k, up 21.4k.
Gold bugs are hammering on $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). This Friday, the metal rallied as high as $2,795, subsequently closing at $2,779/ounce, up 1.7 percent for the week. This was the fourth up week in a row.
When gold reached its peak last October, it came in a gravestone doji week. This was then followed by two weeks of downward pressure during which the metal dropped to $2,542 by November 14. This time around, gold is hanging on to its gains – most of it anyway. This bodes well for a breakout in due course.
For now, if the bulls lose $2,750s, there is trendline support from last November’s low at $2,650. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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1日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 25, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27789 and is trading up about 5.22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27948 while it is still trading above last month's high of 27613.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27620.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 20th at 27948, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27948 to 27156. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 25415 made 10 weeks . The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 20th reaching 27948 has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2日前
Gold Rallies Toward Record Highs Amid Breakout Potential
By: Bruce Powers | January 24, 2025
• Gold tested its $2,790 record high Friday, with potential pullback risks ahead, but a breakout could target $2,823 and $2,874 in the near term.
Gold continued to move higher on Friday as it rallied to test the record high from late-October at 2,790 before backing off. At the time of this writing the day’s high was 2,786 and trading continues above the prior trend high at 2,762. Nonetheless, the strength or weakness of today’s closing price relative to the day’s trading range should provide a clue as to whether buyers can retain control of the bull trend heading into next week. The low for the day was 2,752 and the halfway mark for the range is 2,769. Otherwise, resistance may continue, leading to a pullback.
Risk of Being Overbought
Keep in mind that gold has been advancing in the current upswing (CD) since the 2,582 (C) swing low. At today’s high gold had advanced by 203.63 points or 7.9% from 2,582. On a percentage basis that gain is slightly above average for five prior sequential upswings that occurred since the beginning of May 2024. Those are measured moves that had gains ranging from 7.08% to 8.65%.
On that basis alone gold may continue to see short-term resistance that leads to a pullback before it clears above the current high. Nonetheless, if a breakout above 2,790 occurs prior to a pullback gold is at risk of losing steam shortly thereafter as upward momentum began to accelerate following the minor interim higher swing low in January and the subsequent reclaim of the 50-Day MA.
Breakout Above 2,790 Targets 2,823
A sustainable rally above 2,790 has a chance of reaching the next higher target that looks to be around the 127.2% extension of the current rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 2,823. The 100% target was hit today at 2,772 and gold plowed right through it. Further up is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the February 12 swing low (also part of a small triangle price structure).
That price area can be watched for signs of resistance along with the 2,874 target that completes a 227.2% extension of an advancing ABCD pattern that starts from the September 2022 swing low. Since the higher price level is derived from a larger pattern (covers more time) it has the potential to be more significant.
Bearish Correction Could Test Support at 20-Day MA
If a correction occurs before new record highs, then key near-term support is at the minor swing low of 2,736 from Thursday. A correction to test support around the 20-Day MA is possible while retaining the bullish price structure. Notice that an uptrend line and the 20-Day line have converged and are marking the same price today at 2,682.
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2日前
Gold Continues to Shine
By: Christopher Lewis | January 24, 2025
• The gold market has been very bullish, as the markets continue to see a lot of bullish momentum in this area. The geopolitical issues continue to cause massive headaches, and of course people are worried about the overall tariff situation in the US.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday in the early hours and now it looks like we are doing everything we can to perhaps try to break out above the $2,800 level. The market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think short-term pullbacks probably attract a lot of buying pressure, as the $2,700 level should now offer support. The gold market, of course, is being supported by geopolitical issues, concerns about tariffs, slowing down global growth, and quite frankly, just momentum. The trend has been strong for some time now, as you know.
When you look at the chart, you can see that we are very much in an upward trend and I don’t think that has changed any time over the last couple of months. I just think we were working off some of the excess froth. Now you can look at this as a huge, mutated W pattern, which typically means that we are going to go higher, but we have not broken to a fresh new high quite yet.
If and when we can leave the $2,800 level behind, the market is going to continue to really take off to the upside and I think you’ll be looking at 2,900, and then eventually based on the measured move all the way up to the $3,000 level, which has been my target for a while. Although it looks like we took a little bit of a detour along the way.
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3日前
Gold Record High in Sight as Bullish Momentum is Sustained
By: Bruce Powers | January 23, 2025
• A rally above $2,772 could confirm gold’s bullish trend, though resistance at this level may cause consolidation before targeting the record high at $2,790.
Larger trends and price patterns impact trends and patterns in shorter time frames. Gold broke out above December’s monthly high on Tuesday with a decisive rally above 2,726. That was an inside month breakout reflecting consolidation on the monthly chart.
The long-term bullish monthly trend continuation signal was then further confirmed on Wednesday with another monthly breakout above November’s high of 2,762. Therefore, the market seems to be signaling the demand is improving to the point that the record high of 2,790 may be challenged in the foreseeable future.
Next Target is 2,772
Nevertheless, gold is getting close to reaching its next identified target at 2,772. That price will complete an initial target for a rising ABCE pattern (purple). Both the AB and CD legs up match the price change at that target. Once there is symmetry in price between the two upswings, there is the possibility resistance. Also, a decisive advance above that target would provide a new sign of strength and increase the chance for a continuation of the immediate rally.
Early Session Selloff Brushed Off
On Thursday gold dipped slightly below Wednesday’s low to hit a low for the day at 2,736. Subsequently, buyers took back control leading to an intraday rally. At the time of this writing, gold is set to close strong, in the upper third of the day’s trading range, and near the opening price. There is the possibility of today’s candlestick pattern completing a bullish doji hammer. That would be a bullish pattern following the failed attempt to go lower earlier in the session. It will leave gold in a solid position to push higher.
Bull Signal Above Today’s High at 2,759
A rally above today’s high of 2,759 will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend that then needs further confirmation of strength on a rally above the current trend high at 2,763. Given the potential resistance around the 2,772 target it could stall there and lead to a pullback or consolidation.
If, on the other hand, buying strength remains strong and the 2,772-price level is exceeded with enthusiasm, the record high at 2,790 is at risk of being broken to the upside. It would be healthier for the trend to have a little pullback or consolidation before there is a breakout above the record high. Otherwise, a breakout to new highs risks losing momentum shortly thereafter.
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surfer44
3日前
Barrick’s Twiga Partnership Drives Sustainable Value Creation in Tanzania’s Economy
January 23 2025 - 7:20AM
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD) (TSX:ABX) has injected over $4.24 billion into the Tanzanian economy since establishing the Twiga joint venture with the government in 2019, contributing $888 million in 2024 alone. Twiga comprises the North Mara and Bulyanhulu gold mines.
At a media briefing here today, Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said the Twiga partnership remained a leader in Tanzania’s extractive industry, creating thousands of jobs, supporting local businesses and funding critical community projects.
“We spent $573 million on national suppliers and service providers last year, representing about 83% of our total spend in-country. Additionally, 75% of all our payments to suppliers and service providers went to indigenous companies, exceeding our target of 61%,” Bristow said.
Thanks to Barrick’s policy of local employment and advancement, 96% of its 6,185-strong workforce are nationals with 53% coming from the communities neighbouring the mines. Barrick also invested over $5 million during the year in potable water, healthcare and education, taking the total investment in community projects to $15.8 million since Barrick formed Twiga partnership with the Government and assumed operational control of the Tanzanian mines in 2019.
Bulyanhulu and North Mara production guidance for 2024 exceeded 500,000 ounces maintaining the status as a Tier One1 complex and, additionally, both mines achieved a full year without a Lost-Time Injury.
Buzwagi made significant progress with its closure implementation and environmental management and monitoring progressed with a focus on water management and vegetation maintenance. A Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is in the advanced stages of development, attracting interest from investors, with one already obtaining Export Processing Zone registration.
The Barrick Academy, which opened at Buzwagi in 2024, is making significant strides in developing talent for Barrick. With a focus on training foremen, supervisors and superintendents, the Academy has already trained 1,700 individuals and is on track to exceed its target of training over 2,800 people by the end of 2025.
Conversion drilling at both mines has again replenished their reserves after depletion and, on the exploration front, Barrick continues to consolidate a highly prospective footprint in the Nzega District, adding over 2,000km² of new areas to support mineral reserve growth and replenishment at North Mara and Bulyanhulu. This expansion is also key to Barrick's long-term strategy to identify Tier One1 systems in the region.
Twiga received numerous accolades in the past year, including recognition for its safety, top employer, environmental performance and community engagement. In 2024 North Mara was recognized as the largest economic contributor in Tanzania’s extractive industry and received several awards for its commitment to occupational health and safety, corporate social responsibility, and local content compliance.
“Barrick’s work in Tanzania is a model for sustainable mining that balances economic, environmental, and social responsibility,” said Bristow. “The recognition we have received, speaks to our commitment to excellence and the value we bring to our host countries.”
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4日前
Gold Bull Run Gains Momentum Amid Monthly Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | January 22, 2025
• With 2,763 high and monthly trend reversals, gold continues its bull run. A pullback may precede a breakout above the record 2,790 price level.
Gold’s bull trend continued Wednesday with a new short-term trend high of 2,763. The day looks likely to end in the green and strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. It follows a monthly bullish trend reversal signal that triggered yesterday on a rally above the 2,726-daily swing high and monthly high from December.
Yesterday’s closing price was the fifth highest daily closing price historically and the highest close since the 2,790 high from late-October. These are signs of improving demand that could lead to a new record high breakout for gold.
Next Target – 2,772
Nonetheless, gold is fast approaching a higher risk zone that could lead to a retracement given the gains from the 2,582 low (C). It would be healthy for the advance to take a rest and pullback or consolidate in preparation for a breakout attempt above 2,790. The next target zone is derived from a rising ABCD pattern that reaches its first target at 2,772. At that high gold will be up by 194.3 points or 7.5% from the 2,582 low.
This would put the performance of the current upswing around the average of the prior five upswings. The relationship between swings shows price symmetry or similarity. In other words, the chance of hitting resistance that leads to a stall or pullback increases once a similar target distance is approached. Those numbers are approximate and may vary somewhat by price or percentage, depending on the swing.
Double Monthly Bull Breakouts
Tuesday’s rally triggered a breakout of an inside month on the monthly chart as December’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. Moreover, today’s advance took back the 2,762 monthly high from November. Each rise above a prior monthly high is further evidence supporting the bull trend. Having breakouts of two monthly highs in two days shows the strength of demand behind this rally. A daily close above 2,762 will provide further bullish evidence.
The stronger the demand the greater the chance that the long-term bull trend can continue to advance by exceeding the current record high of 2,790. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mean the trend goes straight there. That is why it is important to watch price behavior around key price levels to gauge degrees of supply and demand and potential significance of a price level or range.
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5日前
Gold Monthly Breakout Eyes Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | January 21, 2025
• Gold surged above $2,726, confirming a bullish reversal and setting the stage to challenge $2,790, with extended targets pointing toward $2,846 and beyond.
Gold strengthened on Tuesday as it broke out above the 2,726-swing high from December 12 and advanced to a high of 2,746 before stalling. The advance triggered a bullish trend reversal as the December lower swing high was exceeded. Also, gold is on track to end today’s session above that price, at the time of this writing.
If it does so, that will be a stronger close than a close below 2,726. In addition, gold looks likely to end the day strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. Either way, today’s bullish price action sets the stage for gold to challenge the record high of 2,790 that was hit at the end of October. In addition to a swing high breakout, the 78.6% retracement at 2,734 was also breached during today’s rally.
Heading Towards 2,772
The next higher target from chart analysis looks to be around 2,772. That is the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple). At that price the two upswings in the pattern would match and generate a potential pivot. A pullback could follow or a breakout through that price zone if buyers remain in charge. Notice the acceleration in momentum as the angle of ascent for the near-term uptrend increases, along with today’s wide range green candle.
This reflects improving demand that may continue to improve. That could lead to an acceleration in the advance as market participants jump on board following the bullish reversal signal above a prior swing high.
Above Record High Points to 2,846
If gold can get above and stay above the record high of 2,790, it heads towards a target zone at 2,846, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern beginning from the February 2024 swing low of 1,984. It is quickly followed by the 227.2% extended target at 2,874 for a rising ABCD pattern that began from September 2022 low. It is also worth watching the rising trendline connecting the August swing low. In junction with other indicators, it can help provide guidance if approached.
Monthly Bullish Reversal Triggered
Finally, today’s bull breakout triggered a monthly reversal as last month’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. December was an inside month. Since the longer time frame takes precedence, a bull trend continuation signal was generated today, which increases the chance of gold reaching new record highs.
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5日前
It’s a Buyer’s Market for Bullion
By: Clint Siegner | January 21, 2025
Most of the past five years in the retail bullion markets were a sellers’ market. Buyers faced hefty premiums and demand outstripped supply.
Over the past few months, that dynamic turned 180 degrees in the U.S. retail market.
A whole lot more people are inclined either to sell the metal that they have – or simply hold.
Ask premiums – the amount buyers pay in addition to the metal value for coins, rounds, and smaller bars – are at the lowest levels in years.
That is good news for buyers, but lower premiums aren’t the only reason that now could be a good time to buy.
The market is showing some tightness where it really matters in terms of metal prices. There aren’t enough COMEX deliverable bars at the moment, at least not inside the U.S. The potential for a short squeeze exists, driving spot prices higher.
Over the past week, the premium for “registered” bars in a COMEX vault has ranged from 50 cents to a dollar per ounce for silver. At the same time, premiums for deliverable gold bars made a big move higher, topping $40 per ounce.
So far, these premiums haven’t shown up in the retail physical market. They are primarily being paid by shorts who have to deliver actual metal in Comex deliverable bar form.
The difference between COMEX futures prices and the price of physical metal will eventually either push spot prices higher or futures prices lower as arbitrageurs play the spread.
Readers may remember the “Silver Squeeze” in 2021. It was a grassroots effort by retail investors to create a short squeeze in the futures markets and force prices higher.
While the effort was certainly successful in driving demand for retail bullion products, it did not drive futures higher. Thousand-ounce silver bars and kilo gold bars remained plentiful and the market price never really took off.
The current situation is different. The shortage in COMEX bar inventory available for delivery is having an impact behind the scenes and may soon burst into the public markets.
The trigger for the recent events is tariffs. President Trump is expected to levy tariffs on a variety of imports, including potentially precious metals. This threat has caused a global scramble to get gold and silver inside the United States before any tariffs take effect.
Vault inventories in London and elsewhere are not exactly plentiful. They’ve actually been declining for years.
A lot of the reported London inventory is allocated to gold and silver exchange traded fund (ETF) holdings. Some of what remains is held in “strong hands” – owned by investors who aren’t willing to sell at all, or who are holding out for much higher prices. It isn’t clear how much of a “free float” of bars is available for export.
There is also a supply deficit in silver. While mine output for gold has risen recently, silver production is expected to decline and remains 200 million ounces short of annual demand.
Producers have yet to respond to somewhat higher prices with more production. That means traders who need physical silver to cover a short position won’t be the only ones bidding for the available above-ground supply.
For anyone planning to buy physical gold or silver, now could be the best opportunity in years. Considering premiums by themselves, it definitely is.
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5日前
Gold News: Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Prices Higher Amid Trade Uncertainty
By: James Hyerczyk | January 21, 2025
Key Points:
• The breakout above $2,726 suggests bullish momentum, with gold poised to test its all-time high of $2,790.
• Gold prices surge to $2,733, a 2-month high, fueled by a weak dollar and safe-haven demand amid trade policy uncertainty.
• Falling Treasury yields and a risk-off sentiment bolster gold, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.
• Trump’s tariff threats on Mexico, Canada, and China drive safe-haven buying as geopolitical tensions rise.
• Support levels at $2,693 and $2,645 could provide buying opportunities if gold retraces from current levels.
Gold Prices Hit 2-Month High as Dollar Weakens
Daily Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold prices advanced on Tuesday, reaching $2,733.06, their highest level since November 24, before trimming some gains later in the session. The rally saw gold surpass the December 12 peak of $2,726.30, which acted as a key resistance level. The breakout signals strong momentum, with room for prices to climb toward the all-time high of $2,790.17, last reached on October 31.
Traders are eyeing immediate support at $2,693.40, with further downside levels at $2,663.50, a significant 50% retracement level, and $2,645.78, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. Any pullback into these zones could provide buying opportunities.
At 12:04 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2723.29, up $15.39 or +0.57%.
Weaker Dollar Fuels Gold’s Strength
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6% on Tuesday, trading near a two-week low. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to foreign investors, as bullion becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Later in the day, the dollar regained some ground as President Donald Trump floated the possibility of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. While this prompted a temporary rebound in the greenback, gold’s safe-haven appeal remained intact, supported by lingering concerns over trade policy uncertainty.
Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold Higher
Gold’s role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty has been a driving factor in its recent performance. Trump’s comments about potential tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China heightened fears of global trade disruptions, prompting investors to shift capital into safe-haven assets like gold.
In addition, U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as markets absorbed the economic implications of Trump’s policy announcements. Investors showed risk-off sentiment following his signing of more than 40 executive orders, which has added to uncertainty surrounding his administration’s economic agenda.
Market Forecast for Gold Prices
Gold’s upward momentum and the breakout above $2,726.30 suggest a bullish outlook for the near term. If prices continue to rise, the market could test the all-time high of $2,790.17. However, resistance could emerge if the U.S. dollar strengthens further or if markets anticipate prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, including housing statistics and PMI releases, as well as any developments in Trump’s trade policies, which could provide additional catalysts for gold prices.
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6日前
Gold Market Drifts Higher in Holiday Trading
By: Christopher Lewis | January 20, 2025
• The gold market managed to drift a little higher in the shortened holiday session on Monday, as Martin Luther King Jr Day had the futures markets closed for about half of the session. At this point, the market will look like it will break out of consolidation.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold markets have been a little bit choppy in the early hours of Monday, but keep in mind, it’s also Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the United States and therefore, you’ve got a situation where the liquidity in the futures market would have been limited not only by volume, but also by time, as it wasn’t open for the entire session. So, with that, you can only read so much into this. But it does look overall like the market’s trying to get above the $2,725 area, which if it does, it allows gold to continue going much higher.
Short-term pullbacks, albeit likely, should be thought of as potential buying opportunities as long as we can stay above the 50-day EMA. If we were to break down below there, then it could open up a move down to the $2,600 region, which has been support so far. There are plenty of reasons to think that gold goes higher, not the least of which is that we have massive amounts of debt around the world that is a major problem, but we also have plenty of geopolitical concerns as well.
I mean, those really haven’t gone anywhere. So, with that being said, it looks to me like a market that is trying to digest a lot of the gains from last year as it drifts sideways and overall, I do think that eventually it takes off to the upside. But the question is, how long does it need to work off the froth? The answer is, of course, you never really know. But there’s nothing on this chart that suggests that you should get short of this market anytime soon.
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surfer44
7日前
How one man took China’s gold
Jan Skoyles - The Real Asset | September 26, 2013 | 5:01 pm Precious Metals China Gold
The story of China and their obsession with gold has been revived this year as monthly data shows the phenomenal volumes imported through Hong Kong and being traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
However, given how much we gold commentators report on China’s inherent love for gold, it’s surprising that very few realise that less than one-hundred years ago the country lost thousands of years’ worth of reserves.
Whilst the 1930s saw the Shanghai Gold Business Exchange as one of the biggest gold centres in the Far East. China’s love for gold left them vulnerable to two separate accounts of looting. The first was in 1937 when Japan invaded China, thus helping themselves to 6,600 tonnes of gold from the then capital Nanking.
However we now turn our attention to a lesser reported looting. The gold that was smuggled out of China to Taiwan between 1948 and 1949 by the soon-to-be-ousted Nationalist party.
In 1948, President of the Kuomintang (KMT) government, Chiang Kai-shek was losing the civil war in north-east China against the Communists. He began planning a retreat to Taiwan and he intended to take the gold reserves with him.
The 1949 retreat of Chiang Kai-shek’s government to Taiwan is a key point in China’s recent history. Not only did it signal a dramatic change in the country’s political and social future but it also left the country with little gold bullion to support any sound money they might have wanted.
Estimates of how much was moved differ between sources, ranging from between 3 million – 5 million taels (113.6 tons – 115.2 tons). In The Archives of Gold published in 2010, Dr Wu Sing-yung, outlines how his father (head of finance for the KMT government) helped to mastermind the operation that saw over 4 million taels of gold be moved from Shanghai to Taiwan. One tael is 37.2 grams.
Central bank governor Yu Hung-chun and the head of finance were ordered by the President to transport the country’s gold from Shanghai to Taiwan.
Covert operation
The first of the gold was moved on December 1 1948, 2 million of the 4.6 million taels held by the Treasury were shipped on the Hai Xing to Keelung in northern Taiwan. The coast guard cutter was escorted by the Mei Ching, a naval vessel. (The Mei ching later defected to the Communist side highlighting the risk of transporting such precious cargo and making Chiang paranoid about who was involved).
By sheer luck a British journalist recorded these first gold reserves leaving Shanghai. When George Vine looked out of his fifth-floor office window he saw manual labourers padding in and out of the central bank, in single file, carrying two parcels on a bamboo pole. From there they walked their parcels up a gangplank onto a freighter that had been moored up outside the ‘Peace hotel’ (according to author William J. Gingles).
Realising the significance of what he was seeing, Sterling Seagrave writes (in The Soong Dynasty) that Vine telegraphed his London office with the not-so cryptic message of ‘all the gold in China was being carried out away in the traditional manner – coolies.’
Later Vine wrote, “I could hardly believe what I saw. Below was a file of coolies padding out of the bank. I could even make out their hats . . . and their uniforms of indigo tunic and short baggy trousers,” as they carried “the wrapped parcels of gold bullion on either end of their bamboo poles” to load onto a ship bound for Taiwan.
Many refused to believe that Chiang could order such a thing but the report by the British journalist still prompted a nationwide bank run.
Just 30 days later the same coast guard cutter used to transport the first 2 million taels, was used once again, this time to transport between 600,000 and 900,000 taels of gold (22-34 tons) and a large amount of silver.
Over the next twelve months the Nationalists moved millions of taels of gold, silver and foreign exchange by both air and sea to Taiwan.
Precious air-freight
Following the December shipments, more of the Treasury’s gold was transported by air. This was after Chiang had received official word that he had lost the mainland. Sources report that in February 1949, nine C-46 military planes each flew 14,600 pounds of gold (6.6 tons) to Songshan airport in Taipei.
The Captain who led the mission had no idea about his precious cargo until he was told by a central bank official who was waiting for him on his plane. The Captain and two other colleagues are both cited as recalling three separate missions similar to that described above. It is estimated that 667,902 ounces were smuggled out of Shanghai in this fashion.
The news of the first of these air-borne missions was leaked to a Hong Kong newspaper. In light of this Chiang ordered that the subsequent two gold transport missions take place in the immediate 48 hours following the first.
A well-kept secret
How did this go on for a year without anyone knowing? Dr. Wu writes that “the movement of gold was entirely controlled by one person, Chiang Kai-shek…Even the finance minister had no power to transfer it. Chiang conveyed his orders verbally, leaving no written record. Only he and my father knew about the movements.’
What happened to the gold?
It is a widely held belief that China’s gold was used to establish the Taiwan we see today. Just six months after the gold operation began, the New Taiwan dollar was launched. It replaced the old Taiwan dollar at a ratio of one to 40,000. It is estimated that 800,000 taels of gold (and US$10 million brought from Shanghai) provided the stability to a country which had suffered hyperinflation since 1945.
The remainder of the gold is believed to have been used to resettle the 1.5 million soldiers and civilians who had fled from China, following Chiang.
The KMT have since confirmed that 2.27 million taels of gold were taken to Taiwan but dispute that this was used as the foundations of Taiwan. However, Chiang’s son, Chiang Ching-Kuo later wrote, ‘if we had not had this gold in the early period of moving the government to Taiwan, it is unimaginable what would have happened. How would we have the stability of today?’
One wonders if the Chinese are now learning from their history. Following the theft of their gold the country became hostage to paper money. Whilst the government of today and the KMT are clearly at polar opposites, when it comes to the respect for gold and the strength it gives an economy, one wonders if they are so different after all.
fink
7日前
"Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form."
That's the big shoe to drop.
There is not enough physical silver mined in a year to cover this short.
If they get called, citi bank could go insolvent. JP Morgan too.
$200oz silver is not out of the question in the short term. Next 18 months.
To throw into the mix, war will end under Trump, but nations will run to rebuild their war capacity and will take massive amounts of silver.
And don't forget Samsungs silver battery.
That alone can be a massive silver rush. If that cat gets out of the bag, I don't know how they can artificially continue to keep silver low for industry. If Elon makes a bid to buy Samsung, it's game on. This battery can be the wet dream EVs need. It's way more sling in development than the graphene battery.
We might see a day where we stop making fun of EV drivers.
I think this is why China has told its people to stop buying gold and load silver. That cursed them back in the day when all nations were loading gold. China took it up the butt hoarding silver. That and opium has had them sucking wind in the world stage untill now. Now that they own the US congress..
And I'd love to see all the paper gold called too. That's almost as bad.,
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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1週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.
Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Continues to See a Barrier
By: Christopher Lewis | January 17, 2025
• The gold market has pulled back a bit in the early hours of Friday in order to confirm the top of the overall consolidation area that we have been in for a while. At this point in time, the market is likely to continue to find buyers on dips.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold has pulled back just a bit in the early hours of Friday as we are testing the top of a larger consolidation range. The $2,720 level is a significant barrier that we need to pay close attention to. If we can break above there, then the market is likely to go looking towards the $2,800 level again. However, I think we’re probably more likely to see a short term pullback and really, that’s not a bad thing. I think it gives you an opportunity to take advantage of cheap gold and buy the dip.
After all, we had been in a very bullish run for some time and therefore, the sideways action, I think, is likely to continue to have to work off some of this froth from what was a really big move during the year 2024.
The bottom of the range extends all the way down to at least the $2,600 level, if not a little bit lower than that. So, I think really, it’s almost impossible to short gold at this point, even if you knew it was going to fall for a couple of days. All things being equal, gold will have to deal with interest rates, but it also will have to deal with geopolitical issues around the world. So, I think there are a lot of things going on at the same time, and that’s part of why we are taking this break here. Nonetheless, when you look at the chart, it is most certainly in an upward trajectory, and therefore gold remains bullish longer term.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Unusual Situation in Gold & Silver Market May Spark Big Price Moves
By: Money Metals Exchange | January 16, 2025
The monetary metals pulled back sharply yesterday but have entered Tuesday on stable footing. Silver is trading at $29.90 –and gold is $2,674.
The ongoing volatility is a reflection of uncertainty in the gold and silver markets globally, including fears of import tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
If Trump slaps a tariff of, say, 10% on precious metals coming into the U.S., that would have a huge impact. 10% on silver would amount to $3 per ounce!
As a result of this worry, the price of gold and silver – as traded on the New York futures market – has risen sharply above the prices for the same metals seen simultaneously in other markets across the globe.
In silver, for example, the spread between London spot and New York futures has recently reached as high as $1 per ounce!
This spread has also created a big incentive for parties all over the world to get their gold and silver into the U.S. before any tariffs are imposed.
Traders are buying metal in London, simultaneously selling in the NY futures market (and pocketing a tidy profit), withdrawing the metal from London vaults, and transporting the metal to the U.S. to deliver onto the exchange to close out the futures position.
This dynamic is having the effect of draining London vaults of gold and silver at an unusually fast rate –and at some point, these lower levels of vaulted metal in London could create price dislocations in that major market too.
Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form.
This situation could lead to big price swings and even a major short squeeze event in gold and/or silver, so you can be confident we'll keep our customers updated at MoneyMetals.com.
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2週前
Gold Holds Gains Amid Consolidation, Testing Key Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | January 14, 2025
• Despite recent pullback, gold maintains a rising trend, supported by strong demand, key MAs, and potential breakout above swing high resistance at 2,698.
Gold pulled back on Friday after reaching a swing high at 2,698. Resistance was seen following that high, which occurred after a bull breakout above a trendline and the completion of a 78.6% retracement. Despite Monday’s potential bearish reversal day and a weak close, gold held above Monday’s low of 2,657 on Tuesday and consolidated in a relatively narrow range. The high was 2,675 and the low 2,659, at the time of this writing.
Consolidation Day
Since sellers did not retain control today, there is no follow through to Monday’s selling. Overall, price action remains near the highs of a rising trend and testing resistance around a trendline. Until there is bearish follow through the potential for an upside breakout remains. Although a rise above today’s high may show strength, it may not signal enough demand to take gold higher. That should be clearer on a rise above Monday’s high at 2,698, and further still above the swing high at 2,698.
Above 2,698 Shows Strength
If gold is to make a bull breakout attempt above the 2,698-swing high, then a deeper pullback first may assist in strengthening demand around key support levels. Both the 50-Day MA at 2,645 and the 20-Day MA at 2,637 identify possible support. And, although a decline below the lower 20-Day line would be bearish, that would really depend on what happens next around the small uptrend line. That line also represents possible support levels and can be used as a guide for identifying signs of strength or weakness.
Weekly Bullish Sentiment
Bullish patterns in the weekly chart (not shown) support an eventual resolution to the upside for gold. Last week’s advance triggered a breakout to a four-week high. The week ended strong, with gold ending near the highs of the week’s trading range and at a seven-week weekly closing high. Moreover, last week’s strength followed a successful test of support around the 20-Week MA over several weeks.
It shows strong underlying demand for gold and retention of the rising trend beginning from October 2023. That was when the 20-Week MA was last reclaimed. In general, once price is rejected to the upside from the price zone of the 20-Week MA there is an increased chance for a decisive advance. Similar behavior was seen following the February 2024 swing low and August 2024 swing low, as well as the November swing low.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Shakey Gold Shakeout! Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | January 13, 2025
Gold is getting beat up this morning as concerns about weakness in the stock market is shaking out some of the bullishness it seems we’re getting a little bit of a risk off in the gold’s this morning in the dollar continues to surge perhaps rising energy prices is one of the concerns and the possibility of course that investors are going to need cash to meet margin calls on their stock positions. The strong jobs report also reduced the chances of fed rate cuts which is causing the dollar to soar. A surge of buying in the dollar index is not helpful to gold.
Yet the Kitco Metals scurvy looks very bullish. The Kitco News Top Metals 2025 Survey showed retail traders continue to believe in gold’s ability to outperform in an unstable world, while industry experts also see potential for silver prices to play catch-up in the second half of the year.
Kitco News gathered the votes of 208 retail investors this week for the Kitco News Top Metals 2025 Survey, and the results showed that over half of Main Street expects gold will outgain all other metals once again in 2025 ,106 retail traders, fully 51%, expect the yellow metal to lead all others this year. Another 36%, or 74 Main Street investors, predicted silver would be the top gainer in 2025, while 8%, or 17 participants, expect copper to post the strongest performance. The remaining 11 retail traders, representing 5% of the total, think platinum and palladium prices will outperform other metals in 2025.
Industrial metals the copper is doing much better.
Obviously, the sad fires in California mean we’re going to need a lot of industrial metals to rebuild.
Peter Grandich who is part of a financial planning group in Wall, NJ, blogger and podcaster said “Not only has copper shown strong support around $4 but has now broken the downtrend of lower highs. There is chatter of a short squeeze but sooner see just a slow but higher overtime move that sees $5 by year-end.
In the short term we’re going to see a lot of volatility but the infrastructure in California is going to have to be rebuilt. The demand for copper, aluminum and steel will be very strong.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 11, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27150 and is trading up about 2.80% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26810.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 5.325%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold On Track for Highest Weekly Close in Seven Weeks
By: Bruce Powers | January 10, 2025
• Gold's advance toward a trend high of 2,698 highlights bullish sentiment, with short-term support and weekly strength suggesting potential for further upward movement.
Gold busted above a short trendline on Friday to reach a high for the day and new high for that trend at 2,698. The advance completed a 78.6% retracement at 2,695, which is just above the trendline. Now, the question is whether gold can continue to strengthen to a new trend high or whether selling pressure stops the ascent and turns gold back down for either a retracement or consolidation.
Trendline Breakout
It looks like the trendline is being recognized by the market as gold is currently set to close at or near resistance at the line. That is the top boundary line for a declining trend channel. Although today’s high was above the line, the trend needs further signs of strength to indicate it might go higher in the short term. A subsequent breakout above 2,698 will not only signal a continuation of the near-term trend, but also provide a second breakout signal from the falling channel.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
The long-term weekly chart (not shown) is bullish as gold broke out to a three-week high this week and is set to have its highest weekly closing price in seven weeks. In addition, the week is set to end strong, with gold likely closing in the top third of the week’s price range. This is a sign of strength that could be a precursor to continued strengthening.
Reaches Key Pivot Area at Top of Channel
Today’s low of 2,661 is short-term support, while the 50-Day MA is at 2,649 and the 20-Day MA sits at 2,637. Potential support around the recent interim swing low of 2,615 has significance as it is a higher swing low. But it is not as significant as support at the swing low of 2,596 from late last year, given its location in the price pattern. Since the 2,615-swing low gold has risen for four days.
However, the previous rally from the November swing low at 2,537 peaked after five days. It remains possible that time symmetry will be seen with the current advance hitting another new high for the trend before stalling. That would complete a series of five consecutive days of higher daily highs and higher lows.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Has a Strong Week
By: Christopher Lewis | January 10, 2025
• The gold market has had a strong week over the last five sessions, but it also it in consolidation, so it is important to think about the fact that the market needs to work off some of the froth that we have seen in it over the last year or so.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the early part of the week only to turn around and show signs of strength again. At this point, it looks like the $2,600 level underneath is a bit of a floor, while the $2,700 level continues to cause headaches.
With all of that being said, I think we’re just simply going sideways, trying to kill off some of their momentum as we had shot straight up in the air for a while. And I think ultimately, this is a situation where you are looking at a market that’s trying to catch its breath after a huge run higher. And as long as we can stay above the $2,600 level, I don’t know if that much will change.
Keep in mind that interest rates, of course, are going to be crucial to pay close attention to. With that, I think we have a scenario where you have to believe this is a market that will eventually break to the upside. There are plenty of reasons for gold to do so. But right now, I think it’s still just trying to find out where to go.
We ended the week with a stronger than anticipated jobs number, which oddly enough did not push gold down, which would have been the expected move on my part, but we still haven’t broken out, so I don’t know that much has changed. I do like buying dips. I recognize from a longer term standpoint we’re in an uptrend, and I just don’t see that changing anytime soon.
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3週前
Gold Bullish Short-term on Rise Above to New Trend High
By: Bruce Powers | January 8, 2025
• Gold advanced to 2,670, testing Fibonacci resistance, with bullish momentum stronger on a daily close above 2,652 or the prior high of 2,665.
Gold advanced to a new short-term trend high of 2,670 on Wednesday before encountering resistance that led to an intraday pullback. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,671. So, arguably the retracement was completed today. Gold is set to provide a new bullish signal with a likely daily close today above the 50-Day MA at 2,652. There has not yet been a daily close above the 50-Day line since the recent higher swing low from mid-December was established at 2,582. A stronger bullish indication would be seen on a daily close above the prior trend high and last week’s high at 2,665.
Short-Term Trend Advances
The advance above the 2,665 high today triggered a continuation of the short-term rising trend. However, the new high breakout needs to be confirmed with a daily close above that high. Notice that the 61.8% retracement level is not far below the downtrend line, another area of potential resistance. The big question is whether demand in gold can continue to strengthen enough that it can break out above the downtrend line. If it does rise above it and stay above it, gold then has a shot at taking out the recent swing high for the current correction at 2,726. That is a lower swing high, and a bullish reversal signal would trigger with a rise above it.
Rising in Bearish Channel
Until then, gold continues to trade within a bearish declining trend channel. This means that there remains the potential for the current advance to hit resistance and turn back down. However, the higher swing high in mid-December provides one clue supporting an eventual bullish resolution. Nonetheless, if today’s high is exceeded to the upside, potential resistance is around the downtrend line. The 78.6% retracement is also nearby at 2,696 and it can provide another guide.
Interim Swing Low Support at 2,615
Potential support areas to consider start with the nearby 50-Day MA at 2,652. Today’s low is at 2,645 and the 20-Day MA is at 2,640. An interim higher swing low and successful test of support at the prior declining trendline (dotted) was established on Monday at 2,615. That swing is part of the near-term uptrend price structure. A narrow trendline was added to the chart connecting that low. It shows an increase in momentum as the slope of the line has increased relative to the lower rising line connecting the December swing low. Therefore, a drop below 2,615 would be more significant than higher price levels. Once that price level fails the 2,582-swing low is at risk.
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3週前
Gold Bullish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | January 7, 2025
• Gold's breakout above Monday's high hints at a bullish continuation, with resistance at 2,665 in site and potential for further gains if 50-Day MA can be reclaimed.
Gold triggered a minor daily bullish reversal on Tuesday as it broke out above Monday’s high and rose to the day’s high of 2,664 before encountering resistance. A daily close above Monday’s high of 2,649 would confirm strength indicated by the breakout. Although gold showed strength today by rising above the 50-Day MA for the second time in three days, it was unable to reach the recent minor trend high at 2,665, also last week’s high. The 50-Day line is currently at 2,654.
Where gold ends the day will be telling as it has a chance to close above the 50-Day MA. If it can do so, which it has failed to do since December 12, it has a chance to go higher. Particularly since the 50-Day line has marked a resistance area the past few days.
Strength Returns
A higher daily high and higher low will complete today and put gold in a position to continue to advance a small rising counter trend that began from the December swing low. It is interesting to note that prior dynamic resistance (dotted line) indicated by the internal declining trendline was successfully tested as support yesterday.
The low for the day was close to it before buyers took back control and the price of gold strengthened. That is a bullish sign given that the line was previously resistance. Next, a rally above the 2,637 high would be needed to signal a bullish continuation of the trend. Potential resistance would then be around the top trend line of a declining channel.
Bearish Below 2,633
Weakness would be indicated with a drop below today’s low of 2,633. If that occurs, then Monday’s low of 2,615 may be retested as support. And that would also put the 2,615 low at risk of failure. Key support would then be around an internal uptrend line, which is estimated at 2,604 today.
Downward Pressure from Declining Channel
Since gold is strengthening within a larger declining bearish trend channel, it is anticipated to continue to rise and test potential resistance around the top of the channel. The 78.6% retracement at 2,695 can also be used as a guide. Until there is a new lower swing high, the downtrend price structure is retained due to the lower swing high of 2,726 from December 12.
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3週前
Silver Dollar. Manic Metals Report
By: Phil Flynn | January 7, 2025
Believe it or not the price of silver futures in the last couple of days has been stronger than gold.
Perhaps silver is trying to get more in line with the historical relationship between gold.
The Gold silver its ratio has been out of whack mainly favoring the gold side of the equation.
Gold course must try to keep up as an alternative investment to Bitcoin that once again has surged over $100,000 per coin. Or perhaps silver out did gold after Goldman Sachs Group said on Sunday that it no longer expects the gold price to reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s shallower rate cut path pushing the forecast to mid-2026.
Gold was whipsawed yesterday after the Washington Post reported that the Trump administration officials were talking about backing off some of the tariffs on other countries. The Washington Post reported that Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but would only cover critical imports.
That caused the US greenback break hard and caused commodities to rally.
Yet later President Trump denied the Washington Post story. That caused gold prices to come back down but not after doing some significant technical breakouts on the upside.
Renewed Chinese buying by central banks is out in the open previously China was buying some gold for the central bank on the black market and not reporting it to the market that was an attempt to keep prices low but according to Bloomberg China’s central bank expanded its gold reserves for a second month in December
Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose to 73.29 million fine troy ounces in December, from 72.96 million in the previous month, according to data released Tuesday. The central bank resumed adding to its gold reserves in November after a 6-month pause.
Bloomberg says that the purchase shows the PBOC is still keen to diversify its reserves even with gold at historically expensive levels. The metal’s rally to a record in 2024 was supported by monetary easing in the US, safe-haven demand, and sustained buying by global central banks.
We think Goldman Sachs should have stayed with its call and we still think that gold will hit $3000 an ounce this year.
It appears that copper prices also are showing signs of finally bottoming. A recent demand surge in China is suggesting that perhaps the weakness and copper has ended.
The fundamental outlook for copper is extremely bullish long term and we could see a surge here over the next couple of months. We would be looking to buy brakes or put on strong option strategies at this point aluminum futures continue to be stuck in a bit of a rut look to sell rallies and buy brakes on the aluminum platinum is also looking very strong as its edging higher.
Buy platinum when it’s creeping and sell it when it’s leaping.
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