trunkmonk
1日前
by the time the epicenter of wave 3 is complete, the ratio will be about half, silver will be at 500 or so, gold >25,000. its not just technical, statistical, analytical, its gonna happen. A friend said a couple days ago he was gonna sell some of his silver, I suggested he wait a while.
silver_bars
3日前
Gold & Silver Stocks Scan-Screen for Tuesday, April 15 2025, After Market Close ...
The grid-view image above shows the top 24 results from a scan-screen from a list of aprox. 500 Small Cap Gold & Silver stocks, that ...
- shows the results for after market close Tuesday, April 15, 2025 ...
- shows just the top 24 results sorted by relative strength (RSI) in descending order - from the highest RSI ranking ...
- shows the results in a condensed grid format called "candle-glance" view ...
- each mini chart shows; candlesticks for past 60 days, price, RSI, volume, 20 & 50 day moving averages.
This daily "candle-glance" grid style chart view format sorted by strongest relative strength (RSI) is helpful for quickly identifying potential shorter term trading opportunities for a small-select group of stocks currently posting stronger than average strength-momentum indicators out of a much larger group of approx. 500 stocks from the same sector.
The majority of the companies in the scan-screen list are TSX & TSXV listed stocks ... and many of these stocks also have a corresponding US listing.
***** DISCLAIMER .....
- I may have positions/trades on some stocks featured in the stock scan,
- i am not an investment advisor ... and i'm not employed in the securities industry,
- i am not being paid a fee to post-publish info about any stocks featured in the scans.
DiscoverGold
3日前
Gold Bulls Hold Control After Channel Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025
🔸 Gold’s bullish posture remains intact following two key breakouts, as buyers defend support and prepare for potential gains toward $3,298, $3,335, and $3,355.
Gold retained a bullish posture on Tuesday as it consolidated within Monday’s price range with a high of $3,233 and a low of $3,208. Monday’s high reached a new record high of $3,246, which was only slightly above last week’s high of $3,245. Notice that support was seen today and yesterday at a top trend channel line (blue). A breakout of the channel triggered on Friday, and it was confirmed by both a daily and weekly close above the line.
Earlier last week there was a confirmed breakout above a larger trend channel that is marked with purple lines. The confirmed breakouts of the channels showed strength in demand for gold, while the subsequent test of the top line, which previously represented resistance, is another step towards the potential continuation of the bull trend.
Short-term Weakness Below $3,194
Nonetheless, a drop below today’s low will show short-term weakness and further still on a decline below Monday’s low of $3,194. However, Fridays low of $3,173 is a better judge of support for the three-day price range. And it can be considered along with the April 3 high of $3,168. That was the most recent trend bull breakout level. Both the top purple channel line and the 20-Day MA, now at $3,086, are key potential support areas to watch.
Higher Targets Start at $3,298
On the upside, a decisive breakout above $3,246 has gold heading towards higher potential targets. First, there is a price zone from $3,298 to $3,306, identified from relatively short-term Fibonacci measurements. Subsequently, there are two higher targets at $3,335 and $3,355. The first higher target is a 261.8% extension of the decline from the 2011 peak. Given its very long-term nature, that price level may have greater significance. The next price level is a 200% extended target from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 low.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart
There is also a bullish pattern on the weekly chart (not shown) as last week completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with a new record high closing price. Given the reaction so far this week, the bulls remain in charge. Confirmed breakouts of two rising channels provide a similar bullish assessment of current demand.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3日前
Precious Metals Sector Update - Big Golds Major Breakout...
By: Clive Maund | April 14, 2025
The main purpose of this update is to make the point that for the first time since this major bull market phase began early last year, investors are starting to take a serious interest in Precious Metals’ stocks with major breakouts in a range of large and mid-cap gold stocks last week. This means that the sector advance has much further to go, a point that is rammed home by the almost tragic reading of the silver / gold ratio which we will have a look at in this update. We’ll start by swiftly reviewing the latest gold charts, then silver, then the revealing ratio charts, then Precious Metals’ charts (GDX) and lastly take a quick look at the dollar index.
We will begin with a 2-year chart for SPDR Gold Shares which is a reliable proxy for gold and the reason for using this chart instead of the gold chart is that it shows volume, which is important at this juncture. We are looking at a 2-year chart because it shows all of the bull market from when it broke out of its giant Cup & Handle consolidation pattern to begin this major bull market phase. On this chart we can that it has arrived at the upper rails of two channels in an overbought state, and with volume having become heavy, it looks like it is in need of a rest. However, it may not get much of one given the likelihood of an attack on Iran in coming weeks. At the time of writing on Monday morning it is reacting back and it is entitled to, and dips may be bought. Note that the uptrend may be becoming steeper, hence the steeper channel drawn on the chart.
On gold’s 6-year log chart we see that it has risen to the upper rail of its orderly strong uptrend, hence this morning’s creation. So it could use a rest here, although as mentioned above, given what’s going on in the world it may get much of one and before long this uptrend could accelerate and get even steeper. It’s worth observing on this chart that gold was not bothered at all by the recent selloff in the stock market (S&P500 index is shown at the top) – on the contrary, it rose.
The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that gold is advancing away in an orderly uptrend from a Cup & Handle continuation pattern that is so gigantic it can clearly support a bull market that will take it much higher than the current price.
Silver meanwhile continues to “drag its feet” like an unwilling child being taken for a walk by gold and it’s remarkable to see on its 2-year chart that it is no higher than it was 11-months ago. This is actually normal early on in a growth phase for the sector and it’s what you want to see, for its a reliable sign that the sector is going much higher.
On its 7-year log chart it is again remarkable to see that silver is still only a shade higher than its mid-2020 and early 2021 highs. However it is “slowly getting with the plot” and is actually in position to slingshot higher which would certainly catch a lot of people by surprise.
The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that silver is just starting to advance out of a gigantic Cup & Handle base that is similar to the gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that launched gold higher and a base of this magnitude can clearly support a massive bull market. So there is everything to go for with silver which is viewed as the best investment of all at this time, although gold is where the action is right now.
Now we will look at a couple of ratio charts and start by looking at what is probably the most important chart in this update, which is the long-term chart showing the silver to gold ratio. The rationale behind interpreting this chart is this; when there is a lot of speculative interest in the PM sector, investors favor silver over gold, because it has the capacity to make bigger percentage gains faster – this is what we saw when the sector peaked in 2011 with silver hitting $50 in the late Spring of that year and gold topping out later in the year in September which is why the silver over gold ratio hit a peak. When, on the other hand, the silver over gold ratio is at a low level it means that speculative interest in the sector is at a low ebb, investors have no interest in it, which is very bullish as it means that there is the potential for it to go much higher. This is what we saw at the ratio lows in 2003 before the sector headed much higher, at the lows of the 2008 broad market crash which dragged the PMs down with it (that won’t happen this time as we have seen in recent weeks) and at the time of the Covid Crash in the Spring of 2020 when we saw a freak low as the Goyim thought that the world was coming to an end. As we can see on this chart the ratio dropped to a very very low level just last week as gold soared and silver didn’t do much, not so far from the Covid Crash freak lows. This sort of low reading means that there remains very little retail interest in the sector – this is very bullish for the sector and for silver in particular which is regarded as a “steal” at these prices. As Mike Maloney pointed out in a recent video “I’m Saddened…Whales Are Scooping Up Gold and Silver Not the Middle Class “ Big Money is mopping up gold and silver as fast as it can while the middle class are for the most part just standing around gaping like frightened rabbits.
Now to our other ratio chart that we have been tracking for a while the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index which shows that gold’s big rise over the past year has “barely moved the needle” on the long-term chart compared to the broad US stock market against which it is still at a low historic valuation. This started to change just this year…
On the shorter-term 2-year chart for the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index however we can see that there has been a dramatic shift just this year in favour of gold and while there may be some rebalancing of this ratio as it is so overbought short-term, it is expected to continue to much higher levels as implied by the long-term chart above.
Now we come to the main subject of this article which is the sudden increase in interest in the Precious Metals sector, and it’s about time, considering how much gold has risen.
We can see this sudden increase in interest on the year-to-date chart for GDX on which we can observe that, after trending steadily higher from the start of this year, it suddenly zoomed higher last week in a straight up move, which was the result of a number of major breakouts by large and mid-cap gold stocks. Whilst it is clearly overbought here with the gap up on Friday suggesting temporary exhaustion and a possible reaction, the move itself has strongly bullish implications.
The 6-year chart for GDX is most illuminating as it reveals that the PM sector has only just started to advance in a serious manner following its recent breakout from a giant Bowl pattern that has been forming from mid-2020 and is only just completing now. A Bowl of this magnitude can support a major bull market and it is clear, looking at this chart, that a major bull market has only just begun and also that there is plenty of scope for the sector to accelerate away to the upside from here…
Lastly, the 5-year chart for the US dollar index shows us a big reason why the Precious Metals are likely to accelerate away to the upside. Last week the dollar broke down from a large top area and having done so is vulnerable to a severe decline. This is hardly surprising given that the rest of the world is looking to ditch the dollar after Trump’s tariff rampage of the past several weeks and bearing in mind that trillions more dollars are set to be spirited into existence to effect a massive bailout of failing hedge funds.
As mentioned above, one of the reasons for the strong performance by GDX last week was that several gold stocks are breaking out of giant base patterns. An example is IAMGOLD which was recommended for purchase on the site in February at $6.24. Here is the chart for IAMGOLD posted on the site last Friday showing how it is on the point of breaking out of the top of a giant Double Bottom base pattern and once it succeeds in breaking clear out of it, it should rise very rapidly as indicated and of course many large golds will probably do likewise. If we do see it slip back into pattern on a minor sector reaction it will provide an excuse to buy more.
So, in conclusion, it looks like we are still in the early stages of what should prove to be an epochal bull market for the Precious Metals sector, that could dwarf all previous ones.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3日前
Gold Continues to Look Bullish
By: Christopher Lewis | April 15, 2025
🔸 The gold market continues to see a lot of buying pressure, as we are levitating to high levels again. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see “buy on the dip” mentality.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied slightly during the trading session here on Tuesday in the early hours, but we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out. This looks like a market to me that is doing everything it can to build up a little bit of consolidation, maybe digesting some of those massive gains that we had previously. Regardless, it’s obvious that you cannot be a seller of gold. Most of the selling in gold at the moment is probably more along the lines of profit taking, which makes sense because we had a $250 move in just three trading sessions.
Gold, of course, has seen the 3000 level be fairly important and now we have the 50 day EMA sitting there as well. So, I think all things being equal, it’ll be an interesting setup, but I do believe that gold will continue to be one that you’re looking for dips in order to take advantage of. When you look at the bullish flag that we had been in previously, the measured move was for $3300. And at this point in time, there’s literally nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests we can’t get there.
Ultimately, I don’t even think we can reach the $3000 level to find that support, at least not unless something drastic happens out there because, quite frankly, markets have been so bullish for gold that I just don’t see how that changes. With this, the market is likely to continue to see more of that sudden pullback, a sudden rally type of situation on shorter term charts.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
4日前
Gold Continues to Levitate
By: Christopher Lewis | April 14, 2025
🔸 The gold market looks as if it is getting a bit tired in the early hours of Monday, but at this point, it is obviously in a massive uptrend. Any pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold markets have been back and forth in the early hours on Monday, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we are so extended at the moment. After all, the market had shot straight up in the air during the last three sessions, gaining a passive amount of real estate, about $250 in the second half of last week. That being said, I do anticipate that there will be a little bit of a pullback sooner or later. And quite frankly, I think that pullback will be a buying opportunity for those looking to find value in a market that has basically run away from us.
There will continue to be major reasons for gold to continue going higher, not the least of which will be the uncertainty involving tariffs, but also the uncertainty involving how global growth may or may not occur from here. After all, the tariffs are coming on the back of what looks to be a slowing US economy anyway, and when the US slows down generally, that means everybody else does as well.
Even though Germany is actually coming out of a recession there are a lot of questions out there when it comes to geopolitics as well. And that, course, helps gold go higher. Also, a shrinking US dollar only adds more fuel to the fire, but that may be coming to an end as we are getting a little exhausted at this point, shorting the US dollar.
Maybe that’s what causes the gold market to pull back. I believe there’s a hard floor near the $3,000 level that you will have to pay close attention to as it has a lot of psychology attached to it and now has the 50 day EMA and a recent bounce from that area backing up that idea.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
5日前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025
🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 200.7k, down 37.7k.
Gold shot up another 6.6 percent to $3,237/ounce this week. It has now rallied for 13 out of the last 15 weeks. The metal bottomed December 30th last year when it ticked $2,608. Between then and now, gold has posted one after another record, breaking down one after another resistance.
Its most recent breakout came on March 13th when it busted out of $2,950s, where it went sideways for a month. This Monday, this is where gold bugs showed up, as the session touched $2,957 intraday; earlier, gold came under slight pressure after rising to $3,168 on the 2nd this month. The next time the yellow metal comes under pressure, bulls and bears are likely to lock heads at/around $3,160s.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 32446 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32630 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28663. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 31620.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 31602.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 7th at 32630, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32630 to 29704. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32630 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 32630. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29774 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
7日前
Gold Three White Soldiers Signal Powerful XAU Rally Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | April 11, 2025
🔸 Gold surged to a new record high, breaking multiple trend channels and forming bullish candlestick patterns that signal potential continuation toward the $3,300 level.
Gold’s advance continued into its third consecutive day of strong gains on Friday, reaching a new record high of $3,245 before stalling its ascent. The rally triggered a decisive breakout above a top channel line (blue), which followed a second breakout attempt of a larger trend channel on Thursday (purple). Since Thursday’s session closed above the purple channel line, the breakout was confirmed.
The breakout of the blue channel looks likely to be confirmed today with a daily close above the line. Trading continues in the top third of the day’s trading range at the time of this writing, with a likely similar strong close for the day and therefore the week. The week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern on that higher time frame as the body of the candle (open to close) covers the full range from Thursday. Furthermore, there may be added significance to the week beginning bearish with a decline and test of support around the prior trend high of $2,955.
Three White Soldiers Form
The three-day advance took the form of the three white soldiers candlestick pattern, which primarily are part of a bullish reversal. Three tall green candles with a closing price near the highs, small or no tales, and sequential higher daily highs and higher lows define that pattern. It reflects strong demand during the three-day advance, with a likely upside continuation breakout. When combined with the breakouts of the two trend channels, the potential is heightened. Whether the bullish implications occur quickly or take a little time, however, remains to be seen.
Pi Ratio Reached
Resistance for the day was seen just shy of the 3.414% (pi) extended retracement of the short-term pullback that began from the February interim swing high of $2,956. Also, there is a long-term 250% extended retracement of the decline from the September 2011 high at $3,232, and it looks like gold may end the day very close to that long-term target. Nevertheless, since it is derived from a long-term pattern, it has potential significance, particularly when joined by other target levels.
Breakout to New High is Bullish
A decisive breakout above today’s high of $3,245 triggers a potential bullish continuation for gold. The next upside target is then around $3,300. At the same time, resistance could be seen either before or after a new high. Today’s low of $3,173 is the obvious near-term support level watch so far.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Hits New High, Eyes Breakout Above $3,175
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025
🔸 Gold's surge continues, reaching $3,175 and triggering another breakout attempt; traders eye $3,205 and higher, while preparing for a possible pullback if strength diminishes.
Gold continued to strengthen on Thursday, reaching a slightly new record high of $3,175. The prior high was $3,168 and the highest daily closing price for gold was $3,131. This means that today’s closing price will likely be the highest ever, further confirming the strength of the trend. Trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and gold looks likely to end the day in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range.
Two Strong Up Days
Today is the second sequential strong up day for gold as represented with the wide range green candles. Might a similar third day of gains be possible or will potential resistance lead to a pullback before gold attempts to go higher? Since three strong moves following a bearish pullback would provide a three white soldiers candlestick pattern, the possibility of a third strong up day needs to be considered. But, of course, a decisive breakout above today’s high would need to occur to signal that possibility. Otherwise, today’s high, which reached a potential significant resistance area, may lead to a pullback into Thursday’s trading range.
Higher Target Starting at $3,199
The next higher target above the prior record high was $3,170 and it slightly exceeded today. That price target is noted given how close it is to the top rising trend channel (blue) covering the advance from the December lows. A more significant potential target is up around $3,199 to $3,205. Since the market seems to be recognizing that top channel line, it can be watched along with the higher target zone. Following the $3,205 target are higher targets of $3,232 and 3,250.
Second Chanel Breakout Attempt
In addition to signs of strength noted above, today’s advance triggered a second breakout attempt from a larger long-term rising parallel trend channel (purple). The first breakout last week failed but this second attempt may have greater success. If the breakout is sustained, then bullish continuation within the smaller trend channel parameters becomes more likely.
Potential Support on Pullback
Therefore, the top purple channel line is potential support and is currently around $3,126 but since the line is rising the price will change. There are also prior weekly highs at $3,087 and $3,058 where support could be seen. Since this week established a wide trading range, a bearish pullback could result in volatility being higher than normal pullbacks.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Continues to See Strength
By: Christopher Lewis | April 10, 2025
🔸 The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at the end of the day, the market probably sees more of a “buy on the dips” attitude in this asset. Gold remains attractive to most traders at this time from what I see.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold markets have gapped higher to kick off the Thursday session and then ran much higher as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the global economy. Despite the fact that we had the tariff announcement during the trading session on Wednesday where the US would pause tariffs for 90 days, the reality is that gold had been in a long-term uptrend to begin with, and now that the stock market rallied a bit, gold rallied as well because the forced liquidation of hedge funds who had massive losses elsewhere in the gold market seems to have ended.
If that’s of course the case, then it’s likely that the market could continue running toward the $3,200 level. But I’d like to see a little bit of a pullback because, quite frankly, if you are not already long in this market, you don’t really want to chase this type of move if you can avoid it, as there will be a pullback.
Using the bullish flag that we formed a couple of weeks ago, it does suggest that we are going to get to the $3,300 level. And I think that’s a reasonable expectation considering how the markets have behaved. It’s also worth noting that the $3,000 level offered support as well as the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to outperform most others. It has been a good year, year and a half now, and I don’t think it will change anytime soon.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Rebounds Sharply, Bulls Reclaim Key Technical Levels
By: Bruce Powers | April 9, 2025
• After bouncing from $2,956 support, gold surged past technical levels, confirming bullish momentum with potential to test the $3,168 high and beyond.
Gold triggered a one-day bullish reversal on Wednesday following initial weakness near the start of the trading session. Subsequently, a bullish outside day has formed with gold reaching a three-day high of $3,099 and it continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. During the advance, an uptrend line and 20-Day MA were reclaimed following a couple days trading below those lines.
Gold continues to trade above the 20-Day line, now at $3,043, and it looks likely to close above it. Also, there is a prior minor swing high of $3,058 that was exceeded during today’s rally. That high was also a weekly high from three weeks ago. A daily close above that high will also provide confirmation of strength.
Relatively Quick Recovery
Although gold fell below potential trend support represented by both the trendline and 20-Day MA on Monday, the quick recovery shows the bulls back in charge and the integrity of the short-uptrend intact. A daily close above the 20-Day MA will confirm strength indicated by today’s bullish reversal. Monday’s corrective low of $2,956 established a higher swing low and completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an internal upswing and a successful test of support near prior resistance that marked the most recent bullish breakout at $2,956.
In addition to finding support around two key price levels, the 50-Day MA was slightly below that price area as well. The 50-Day line continues to rise and has reached $2,953 currently. The 50-Day MA now represents a key trend support area moving forward.
Rally Follows Minor Pullback
Gold’s sharp advance following a relatively minor retracement is bullish but needs further signs of strength to indicate whether it can continue to rise in the near-term. Certainly, a minor pullback may occur before an attempt is made to challenge the recent new record high of $3,168. Potential support levels to watch include the 20-Day MA, Tuesday’s high of $3,023, and the uptrend line. Once today’s advance is further established, the rising trendline will move to this week’s low.
First Upside Target at $3,177
If the record high is approached there is a top trend channel line (blue) slightly above the level and a short-term rising ABCD target a little higher at $3,177. That channel line represented resistance recently and it may do so again. Further up is the confluence of two indicators at $3,199.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Holds Above Key Support Amid Ongoing Downward Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025
• Gold consolidates after falling from record highs, testing support near the 50-Day MA, with both bullish and bearish scenarios hinging on upcoming price action.
Gold consolidated within a range of $2,975 to $3,023 on Tuesday and traded for a second day below the 20-Day MA, now at $3,036. An inside day will complete today reflecting consolidation following a $2.11 or 6.8% decline from the recent $3,168 record high to Monday’s low of $2,956. That drop broke below an internal uptrend line but found support around a prior trend high of $2,955 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,961. And gold remains above the 50-Day MA trend indicator, at $2,937 currently.
Inside Day Consolidation
The inside day pattern may complete as a bearish doji shooting start candlestick pattern. Although that pattern is typically more reliable at market tops, it still reflects sellers being in control for the day, as the day’s closing price is set to be near the lows of the day. Therefore, a decline below $2,975 will trigger a breakdown of the inside day shooting star pattern.
Shows Relative Strength
Gold has held up better than many assets during recent global market volatility as it has only fallen by 6.7% and it remains above the 50-Day MA. Although dropping below the rising trendline and 20-Day MA are signs of weakness, the relationship to the 50-Day line is now key support. If gold remains above the 50-Day MA, it has a chance for the advance to continue. But a decisive decline below the 50-Day line could change that.
50-Day Moving Average Support is Key
Lower potential support levels that are below the 50-Day line, include a 78.6% retracement level at $2,904, a 50% retracement of a larger swing at $2,875, and a prior interim swing low at $2,833. Those price areas can be watched for possible support along with the next lower long-term uptrend line (purple). If the 50-Day MA fails as support, the next trend indicator is the purple uptrend line, and therefore it has a good chance of being reached if gold drops below and then stays below the 50-Day MA.
Upside Breakout Faces 20-Day Moving Average
On the upside, a one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3,023 may lead to a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA at $3,036. Then there is Monday’s high of $3,055. Gold would need to trade above and stay above $2,023 before it has a chance to challenge recent highs.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Cycle Update
By: Jim Curry | April 6, 2025
For the short-term picture for Gold, as mentioned in my last article from 3/23/25, the 10 and 20-day cycles were headed lower, though a move which was anticipated to end up as countertrend - to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up.
Here is the smaller 10-day wave in the Gold market:
As mentioned, the last 10-day cycle downward phase was expected to end up as a countertrend affair, to be followed by higher highs on the next swing up - which we did see. That rally took Gold up to a high of 3201.60 for the June, 2025 contract.
Going further with the above, at the most recent peak, Gold was on the lookout for another short-term correction with our 10-day wave, which was confirmed to be in force with the reversal below the 3128.00 figure (June, 2025 contract).
With the above said and noted, the metal has seen a decline of nearly 100 points through our downside reversal point of 3128.00, an action which favors the downward phase of our larger 34-day cycle to be back in force.
Shown below is that 34-day cycle in Gold:
Going further with the above, taking out the 3031.00 figure (June, 2025 contract) to the downside will favor even more short-term weakness with this 34-day wave, which is next projected to trough around mid-to-late April.
With the above said and noted, we expect the next swing low to form with our 34-day wave in Gold, into the mid-to-late April window, before turning higher again into May - with our larger 72-day cycle, which is shown again on the chart below:
With the recent decline, there is some potential for our 72-day cycle to have topped, though this has yet to be confirmed. With that, the ideal path is looking for only a countertrend correction with the smaller 34-day cycle, before turning back to make another stab at the highs - before actually peaking this 72-day component.
Stepping back further, once the 72-day wave does top out, then the probabilities will favor a bigger percentage decline into what looks to be late-June, plus or minus.
In terms of price, the 72-day moving average should act as the magnet to the next correction phase of our 72-day wave into June, though with the potential for a larger decline to unfold, due to the extended position of our bigger 310-day cycle:
This larger 310-day cycle sets the direction for the mid-term trend in Gold prices, with the current upward phase of this wave seen as very extended. This wave was originally projected to trough this Spring, though with the detrend now projecting it to bottom out around the late-June window - which is where our next 72-day trough is also due.
For the bigger view, the next mid-term buy for Gold should come at or near the lower four-year cycle channel (in red) and/or the 310-day moving average. Having said that, a drop back to that range could come from higher highs first, such as with our 72-day wave into May - following the completion of the current short-term decline phase with the smaller 34-day component; stay tuned.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 5, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 238.4k, down 11.4k.
Gold has been rallying since December 30th last year when it ticked $2,608. Going into this week, it had rallied for 12 out of 13 weeks. If this week’s highs held, the positive momentum would have extended to 13 out of 14, but that was not to be. The yellow metal reversed lower after tagging $3,164 on Thursday, and the reversal took place in a risk-off week. For the week, it fell 1.4 percent to $3,040/ounce and was up 2.6 percent at Thursday’s fresh all-time high.
Before this week’s reversal, gold has remained extended on nearly all timeframes. It just about went parabolic for over a year. In February last year, the yellow metal touched $1,984. Unwinding probably lies ahead.
In the event of selling pressure, a lot depends on if gold bugs will be able to defend $3,000 and $2,940s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 5, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30354 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Up to now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32016 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28663. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 31503.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30475 and support forming below at 30082. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 31st at 32016, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32016 to 30327. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32016 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 27200 and 30882. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 32016. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30827 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 29231 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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