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1日前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 5, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 32394 and is trading up about 34% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into October reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33225 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28010. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's close of 31458.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 32145 and overhead resistance forming above at 32590. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 30th at 33225, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 33225 to 31155. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33225 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 27092 and 32484. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 30th reaching 33225 has exceeded the previous high of 30545 made back during the week of August 26th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Silver COMEX Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 28720 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1週前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31816 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 33020 intraday and is still trading above that high of 30545.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 31755 and overhead resistance forming above at 32600. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 33020, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 33020 to 30670. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 33020 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 27043 and 32425. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 23rd reaching 33020 has exceeded the previous high of 30545 made back during the week of August 26th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in September, this market has held above last month's low of 26505 reaching 28010.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1月前
Silver Tests Key Support, Eyes Potential Bullish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | September 2, 2024
• Following a pullback to 28.33, silver tests its 20-Day MA for support, potentially setting up a bullish reversal towards a 32.05 target.
Silver dropped to a retracement low of 28.33 on Monday and thereby completed a 50% retracement of the most recent advance. Support was subsequently seen leading a bounce intraday. Nevertheless, the drop today took silver below the 20-Day MA (purple), and it may close near it today. At the time of this writing silver is trading around the 20-Day line, currently at 28.63.
The relationship to the 20-Day line may provide clues relative to changes in supply and demand for silver. A daily close above the 20-Day MA, currently at 28.63, would indicate stronger demand than a close below the line. It may be significant because it is a clue that the price of silver may continue to head in the direction indicated by the daily closing price.
20-Day MA Should Be Watched
Notice the recent sharp rally and breakout through both a lower trend channel line and the 20-Day MA. That advance peaked last week at 30.19 and was followed by the current pullback. Therefore, the 20-Day line is given added attention because silver traded below it for around 20 days. Today’s pullback is the first test of the line since the bull breakout of the 20-Day MA on August 15. Therefore, if it holds as support and leads to a bullish reversal, the developing uptrend can continue higher to challenge last week’s high.
Potential Breakout of Falling Channel
If today’s low is sustained it may end up as a higher swing low relative to the August 8 bottom at 26.47. That would make the low the C point of a rising ABCD pattern with an initial target at 32.05. The target provides a guide as to what might be possible as ABCD patterns have a habit of reaching a key pivot once there is symmetry between the price change in two sequential swings in the same direction.
Watch 27.89 For Lower Support
Regardless of the potential for a bullish reversal off today’s lows, silver may yet pullback further. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 27.89 along with top of a lower channel line point to the next likely support area if silver falls below the day’s low of 28.33. Strength indicated by the rally from the August low point increases the chance for a second enthusiastic advance once a retracement is complete.
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1月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2024
Next Monday is Labor Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29143 and is trading up about 20% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 29080 and overhead resistance forming above at 29700. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 5th at 26505, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 8th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of August 5th, which has been a move of 15.24%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has held above last month's low of 26505 reaching 26505.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1月前
Silver Continues to See Volatility as We Drop on Wednesday
By: Christopher Lewis | August 28, 2024
• Silver continues to be noisy, as the market fell hard on Wednesday in the early part of the session. However, this is a market that a lot of people are going to see as a “buy on the dip” scenario going forward.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has plunged pretty drastically during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. That being said, I think we’ve got a situation where traders will look at this through the prism of trying to find value. Quite frankly, the US dollar was oversold, so it’s not a huge surprise to see precious metals dropping in the morning as the dollar recovers. But ultimately, when you look at the silver market, it’s also worth noting that the $30 level has caused a little bit of a headache. Obviously, there will be a lot of options players interested in this big figure as per usual.
All things being equal though, I do think that there will be plenty of buyers in this general vicinity and most certainly down near the 50 day EMA. So, it’s probably only a matter of time before value hunters come in and pick up a bit of cheap silver. I have no interest in shorting this market, at least not until we break down below the $28.50 level. Something that I don’t think we’re going to see in the next 24 hours, but it is worth noting that the overall attitude of silver has been bullish, but extraordinarily choppy. I don’t know what changes anytime soon. And the only way that you really can deal with it is by keeping a reasonable position size because the volatility in silver can really cause problems, and protecting your account is paramount.
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1月前
Silver Bull Run Continues, Targets 30.62 Amid Strong Demand
By: Bruce Powers | August 26, 2024
• Silver continues its upward momentum, breaking 30.10 with strong demand. The next target is 30.62, with dynamic resistance approaching near the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
Silver continued its ascent on Monday, reaching a new high for the rally of 30.10. The advance showed continued strength in demand for silver as it rose further above the 50-Day MA. Last Friday the 50-Day line was broken to the upside with a daily close above the line at 29.21. That was the second attempted upside breakout of the 50-Day MA, and it followed a failed attempt to maintain support around the 50-Day line on Thursday.
Today’s price action shows sustained demand for silver following a quick one-day pullback last Thursday. A daily close above today’s high will confirm a continuation of the bull trend and keep silver in a position to test higher price targets.
Target Exceeded
The most recent target of 29.74 was reached last week and exceeded to the upside today. It was marked by the combined completion of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the target from a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% ratio. The next upside target for the precious metal is the 78.6% retracement at 30.62. Depending on when it is reached, the 78.6% retracement level will start getting closer to the top downtrend line, which represents dynamic resistance for the trend. Before silver can challenge its recent swing high at 31.76 and the recent peak of 32.52 from May, it needs to first get above the downtrend line.
Weekly Bullish Signal Today
Today’s advance is not only a continuation of the daily chart, but it is also a bullish continuation on the weekly chart. Last week’s high was 29.97 and silver is set to close above that high today and confirm the strength of the weekly breakout. It looks possible that silver tests resistance around the 78.6% retracement area and the downtrend line in the current rally.
There have been two short pullbacks on the way up. Each time the recovery was quick as the bulls took back control leading to higher prices for the trend. Given the additional sign of strength yesterday, with a decisive rally above the 50-Day line, strength should be able to be maintained on the way up.
Key Near-Term Support Around 28.79
Nevertheless, if weakness does occur before new trend highs the recent pullback level at 28.79 is key support. A decline below that price level will likely lead to a deeper retracement. Unless that happens, the odds look to favor higher prices for silver.
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1月前
Silver Continues to Look For Higher Prices
By: Christopher Lewis | August 26, 2024
• The silver market has been all over the place in the early hours of Monday, as we are trying to now reach well above the $30 level, an area that obviously has a lot of psychological influence in this market.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially pulled back just a little bit during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to break above the $30 level. We have since seen a bit of trouble above the $30 level. So, it does make a certain amount of sense that the market is going to continue to be noisy. There isn’t a whole lot out there as far as news is concerned over the next day or two. So, we’ll see whether or not this is going to be more of a risk on the market. There probably won’t be too many headlines to have it overly concerned. So that is something worth paying attention to.
With that being said, I would like silver for a move up to the $31.50 level, but it’s going to take some time. Short-term pullbacks are most certainly possible with the 50-day EMA near the $28.90 level and rising. Obviously, a lot of this is influenced by the US dollar weakening, and if it continues to do so, that should, at least in theory, push silver much higher over the longer term.
I have no interest in shorting this market, but you do have to be very cautious with your position sizing because of the inherent volatility of this market. The central bank in America, the Federal Reserve, is likely to cut rates in September and beyond. And I think that’s part of what we are banking on here in the silver market as the negative correlation between silver and the USD is well-known.
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1月前
Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will Dovish Fed Signals Push Silver to New 2024 Highs?
By: James Hyerczyk | August 25, 2024
Key Points:
• Fed Chair Powell signals potential September rate cut, boosting silver’s appeal amid dollar weakness.
• With a 67.5% chance of a rate cut, silver could see further gains; $31.76 is the next target for bullish traders.
• Silver rallies 2.73% for the week to $29.83 as Fed hints at rate cuts; can the metal break the crucial $30 resistance level?
Silver Market Recap and Forecast
Silver (XAG/USD) demonstrated significant strength last week, settling 2.73% higher at $29.83. The precious metal’s performance was supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields, reflecting investors’ increased appetite for the metal amid shifting monetary policy expectations.
Key Influencing Factors
The primary catalyst for silver’s upward movement was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Powell’s remarks signaled a potential interest rate cut in September, stating that “the time has come” for policy adjustment. This dovish stance led to a 1.68% decline in the dollar index and a drop in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, enhancing silver’s appeal to international investors.
Market Expectations
Traders have priced in a 67.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 32.5% chance of a more substantial 50 basis point reduction. This anticipation of lower interest rates has bolstered silver’s attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. Market participants are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed communications for further clues on monetary policy direction.
Technical Analysis
Weekly Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver has maintained a bullish bias, trading above its 50-day moving average of $29.22. The metal faces immediate resistance at $29.97, with support levels established at $29.50 and $28.22.
Demand Factors
India’s silver imports are projected to nearly double this year, driven by increasing demand from solar panel and electronics manufacturers. This surge in industrial demand, coupled with silver’s role as a safe-haven asset, provides a solid foundation for price support.
Short-Term Outlook
The near-term outlook for silver remains cautiously optimistic. With the current price at $29.83, market analysts are closely watching the psychologically important $30.00 level. A sustained break above this level could potentially accelerate the upward movement. In this scenario, silver could target the next significant resistance level at $31.76. This forecast is supported by the current price levels, recent market reactions to Federal Reserve communications, and the overall bullish sentiment in the market.
Risks and Considerations
While the overall sentiment is bullish, traders should remain vigilant to potential volatility. Any unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed or stronger-than-anticipated economic data could lead to short-term price corrections.
In conclusion, silver’s near-term path appears poised for further gains, supported by dovish Fed expectations and strong industrial demand. However, market participants should closely monitor upcoming economic releases and Fed communications for potential shifts in sentiment. The metal’s performance around the $30.00 level will be crucial in determining its short-term direction.
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1月前
Silver Market Update - PERFECT BUY SPOT AHEAD OF MASSIVE UPLEG...
By: Clive Maund | August 19, 2024
The purpose of this update is to bring to your attention that silver is on the verge of commencing a massive unprecedented bull market which will “officially” kick off with it breaking above the key $30 level, which is important for reasons that will soon become apparent when we consider the charts and this could happen very soon. Gold’s massive unprecedented bull market has already begun and where gold leads, silver will follow.
The reasons for silver’s bull market will be the same as for gold and are well set out by Doug Casey with the link to his recent article Gold’s Next Explosive Move, that is included in the parallel Gold Market update, repeated here for convenience. See also Surging Silver Demand Depleting Global Inventories. In the Gold Market update we deduced that, taking inflation over the years into consideration, gold has essentially been stuck in a giant trading range since its 2011 peak, that it only succeeded in breaking out of in the Spring of this year, with this trading range being comprised of an equally gigantic Cup & Handle continuation (consolidation) pattern.
The big difference here between silver and gold is that, while gold has already broken out and is forging ahead, silver has so far only managed a “preliminary” breakout that was followed by a reaction back into pattern, but with gold striding ahead this is not a situation that can be expected to last much longer and it is already starting higher. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT SILVER AND ALL THINGS SILVER ARE A TERRIFIC BARGAIN HERE WITH THESE SORTS OF PRICES NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER, AND MAY NEVER BE SEEN AGAIN. That the giant Cup & Handle base shown on our long-term chart for silver going back to 2000 is valid is made clear by two important technical factors. One is the strong volume on the rally to form the right side of the Cup in 2020 (and on the attempted breakout this Spring) which is a sign that the pattern is genuine and the other is the strong On-balance Volume line which has been marching steadily higher. Thus the reaction back into pattern of the past couple of months is seen as presenting the perfect “buy spot” for silver and all things silver ahead of a genuine breakout leading to a vigorous bull market especially given the serious escalation of military conflict in different theaters around the world that we are now right on the verge of.
Zooming in now via a 7-year chart, which shows the right side of the Cup and the subsequent “Handle” in much more detail, we can see that the Handle has been comprised of a Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern with the price staging a clear breakout from it in April, in sympathy with gold’s advance, and this breakout has been followed by a normal reaction back to a classic “buy spot” at support at the upper boundary of the H&S pattern and although it is starting to advance again, we are clearly in a very good buying area here with silver still oversold on its MACD. After the price broke out in April it drove through the key $30 level, but due to overhead resistance – recall that silver got as high as $50 in 2011 – and due to it having become overbought, it reacted back below it again. However, this was not in any way a negative development as it was simply a normal post-breakout reaction back to test support and the foray about $30 drained off some overhanging supply thus clearing the way for the next upleg to make more progress.
Lastly on its 6-month chart we can see how silver is perfectly positioned for renewed advance following a normal correction back to support in the vicinity of its rising 200-day moving average. We don’t often attempt to employ Elliott Wave Theory because it can be complicated and tricky and has a tendency to work very well in retrospect but on this occasion we see that silver has exhibited a near-perfect 5 waves up in the direction of the primary trend followed by a 3-wave correction which are believed to be waves 1 and 2 of a larger order uptrend. If so then big wave 3 is imminent which is likely to be substantial.
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1月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29820 and is trading up about 23% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in August is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 26505 intraday yet it remains trading back above that previous low of 28938 implying near-term strength.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 29255 and overhead resistance forming above at 29940. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 5th at 26505, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 8th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of August 5th, which has been a move of 13.31%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has fallen to a new low reaching 26505.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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2月前
Silver Breakout Above Key Resistance Confirms Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | August 19, 2024
• Silver continues its bullish momentum, breaking above the 50-Day MA, confirming a breakout and setting the stage for further gains toward key resistance levels.
Silver continued to show strength on Monday as it rallied above the 50-Day MA and is poised to close strong, above that price level. That would confirm the breakout. A strong daily close for silver will set the stage for a continuation higher. Also, the rally today took silver above the interim swing high of 29.23 from August 2, providing an additional signal of strength. Monday’s advance reached a high of 29.47, a little shy of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target at 29.74. It points to the next higher target zone.
Up 11.3% From Recent Low
Nonetheless, silver was up by as much as 11.3% in the seven days since rallying off the 26.47 swing low. The swing low also completed a successful test of support around the 200-Day MA, which was a little lower at 26.08. That was the first test of support around the 200-Day line since silver rallied above the line in early-March, leading to a strong multi-week advance. Therefore, the expectation is that that correction is done.
Watch for Support at 20-Day MA on Weakness
Regardless, short-term weakness may occur at any moment as today is the third straight day up. If a pullback occurs, watch for support first around the 50-Day line at 29.20. Then there is the 20-Day MA at a price of 28.11. Notice that it was tested as support on Friday with the low of the day. A rising ABCD pattern has been added to the chart (purple) from the recent swing low (A). Initial targets have already been exceeded, leaving a 161.8% extended target at 29.74. That is a match with the 61.8% retracement and therefore highlights the potential for a strong pivot in that price area.
Bullish Weekly Signal in Play
Silver triggered a bullish reversal on its weekly chart last week and today’s advance validates the breakout. This provides one more piece of evidence for the likely continuation of the developing bull trend. Keep in mind that last week was the first week of a weekly bullish signal. So, the rally may still be in the beginning of its early stages that eventually should lead to an advance above the most recent trend high of 32.52 from May.
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2月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 17, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 28849 and is trading up about 19% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in August is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 26505 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 28938.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28560 and overhead resistance forming above at 31070. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 5th at 26505, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 8th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 5th, which has been a move of 9.771%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 27555. Resistance is to be found starting at 30620. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has fallen to a new low reaching 26505.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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2月前
Silver Continues to Threaten The Same Region
By: Christopher Lewis | August 16, 2024
• The silver market has rallied again in a volatile week, showing a proclivity to grind higher overall. That being said, we are testing the $28.50 level, an area that has been important multiples times in the past, and therefore should be an area that causes a lot of attention to be paid to this market.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a bit during the course of the week, slamming into the $28.50 level, finding resistance. All things being equal, if we can break above that level, then it’s likely that we can take off to the upside, and I think that’s what the market is trying to hint at. That being said, the other side of the equation is perhaps we go sideways for a while, and that would make a certain amount of sense as well, with the $26.50 level offering massive support.
Market participants are likely to see this as a back and forth sideways type of scenario, but more importantly, it’s worth noting that the 50-week EMA has come into the picture to offer support, and we fell in that so-called golden pocket between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Because of this, I think if we do break above the $28.50 level for a sustained move on at least the daily chart, then I think you will see buyers coming back into the market and trying to pick up silver and run to the $31 level with it. A lot of this will come down to the Federal Reserve and whether or not they are going to be cutting rates and as things stand right now, it certainly looks as if they are going to.
Keep in mind that risk appetite has its part to play with the silver market as well, as silver is extraordinarily volatile, so it can be somewhat dangerous to jump in with a huge position. But as things stand right now, it looks like we’re either going sideways or higher.
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2月前
Silver Continues to Show Volatility
By: Christopher Lewis | August 13, 2024
• The silver market pulled back a bit in the early hours on Tuesday, as the markets are digesting a bit of the gains over the last few days. Ultimately, this is a market that has a few major levels to watch, as they could give you a “heads up” as to where we are going.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior and I think that given enough time we will more likely than not try to reach the $28.50 level. At this point in time the 200-day EMA underneath is probably going to continue to offer support right along with the $26.50 level.
In general, I think you’ve got a scenario where the market is going to continue to be very volatile, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that silver is inherently volatile. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the market is likely to see a lot of noise out there when it comes to interest rate policy coming out of the central banks, and furthermore, the overall industrial demand, because remember, silver is an industrial metal as well as a precious one, and probably more so industrial than precious.
So, with that being said, it does tend to generally follow the gold market, but not necessarily tick for tick. I think at this point in time, it is a little bit of a laggard, but that does make a certain amount of sense, considering that the global economy seems to be slowing, so the demand for silver could drop, at least in that part of the equation. If we were to break down below the $26 level, then I think the market completely folds apart. If we can break above the $28.50 level, then I think silver really starts to take off to the upside.
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2月前
Silver Advances to $28, Eyes 20-Day MA for Next Move
By: Bruce Powers | August 12, 2024
• Bullish momentum pushes silver to $28.00, with key resistance levels ahead. A close above $29.23 could confirm a developing uptrend.
Bullish momentum continued in silver on Monday as it advanced to a new high for the bounce of 28.00. Demand remains strong at the time of this writing, with trading continuing near the highs of the day. Silver reached a retracement low of 26.47 last Thursday before buyers stepped up with enthusiasm.
A key reversal day was completed on that day. It may mark the end of the bearish retracement, but further confirmation of strength is needed. The next upside target is around the 20-Day MA at 28.49. Also, some signs of resistance may be seen earlier around the downtrend line. It is currently estimated at 28.13 today.
Targets 20-Day MA at 28.49
Keep in mind that silver remains in a downtrend. It needs to first close above the 20-Day line and then above the most recent swing low at 29.23 before it is cleared to continue higher. In addition to the above notes, there are other signs that the bearish correction may be over. Last week’s decline reached an extended target for a descending ABCD pattern at 26.74. Support was seen just below there at the week’s low of 26.47. In other words, support was seen around a pre-determined price target. That low, if it is retained, provides a new higher swing low for the developing uptrend price structure.
Weekly Resistance at 28.67
Before the 29.23 price level is encountered there is potential resistance around last week’s high of 28.67. A bullish advance above that price level will trigger a bullish reversal on the weekly chart. Subsequently, a daily close above that price level will confirm the weekly reversal. That will provide another clear sign of strengthening for the price of silver and will put it in a strong position to potentially breakout above the 29.23 swing high. And the that swing high is also a weekly high.
50-Day MA at 29.36 is Higher Target
The 50-Day MA is at 29.36 currently but remains slanted down. It may converge with or around the 29.23 swing high before it is reached. Nevertheless, it represents another price level to watch for potential resistance. Also, as with any pivot, a breakout above the line will further confirm strength of the developing uptrend. The next key higher price zone of concern would then be around the prior swing high of 31.86 from July (C).
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2月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 10, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 27588 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Immediately, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in August is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 26505 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 28938.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27670 and support forming below at 26700. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 4 weeks reaching a high during the week of July 8th at 30620. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 17.21% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has fallen to a new low reaching 26505.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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2月前
Silver Price Forecast: Bearish Correction Targets 200-Day MA Support
By: Bruce Powers | August 5, 2024
• Silver's bearish correction continued, eyeing the 200-Day MA at 26.02 as a crucial support level amid a broader market decline.
Silver triggered a continuation of the bearish correction on Monday on a drop below the previous swing low of 27.31. It hit a price low of 26.50 for the day before bouncing. However, the 27.31 has not been recaptured and silver is on track to close below that price level. Support for the day was seen around an extended declining ABCD pattern target. The 127.2% extension pivot from the pattern was at 26.74. Silver has corrected by 18.5% from the May peak as of today’s low.
Looks to be Heading Towards 200-Day MA
Given the sharp decline today, along with the wider markets, silver looks poised to eventually test support around the next targeted price zone. It includes and is anchored by the 200-Day MA at 26.02. However, other indicators point to the same price area and strengthen the potential for support to be seen around the 200-Day line.
The price zone begins with 26.14, the swing high from early-May 2023. Then there is the completion of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 25.98. Also, there was an interim swing low at 26.02 from early-May. Finally, 25.91 is marked as it was clear resistance at the early-December 2023 swing high and it may now mark support.
200-Day Zone Also Marked by Other Indicators
The 200-Day MA is significant by itself and should be given more weight as possible support given that it lines up with other indicators. Nevertheless, how the price of silver behaves around the price levels should provide clues as to what may be coming next.
The current decline would be the first test of the 200-Day MA as support since a sharp breakout rally began from a March 4 bullish breakout. Such first tests of support at the 200-Day line are frequently met with support. Given the multiple other indications for support, it wouldn’t be surprising to see support that holds and leads to a bullish reversal, around the 200-Day line.
Bottom Line Target if 200-Day Line Fails
A failure of 200-Day MA to hold as support would put silver at risk of eventually falling to test the lower uptrend line for a rising parallel trend channel. If hit today the line would be at approximately 23.53. Since the line is rising, it will represent a higher price in the future. Such a drop doesn’t look likely, but it is possible.
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2月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 3, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 28392 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 28938, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in August is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28560 and support forming below at 28220. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 4 weeks reaching a high during the week of July 8th at 30620. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 14.25% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in May at 32750. After a three month rally from the previous low of 26255, it made last high in May. Since this last high, the market has corrected for three months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has held above last month's low of 27450 reaching 28060.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2月前
Silver Has a Brutal Week Again
By: Christopher Lewis | August 2, 2024
• Silver has fallen during the back half of the week, as traders around the world continue to see a lot of “risk off” behavior. Silver continues to be very noisy, and I think this will be the case going forward as well.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The silver market has been rather noisy during the course of the week, as the market had originally broken above the $28.50 level only to turn around and show signs of negativity. By doing so, the market now looks as if it is going to be a situation where we are trying to determine whether the uptrend can stay intact. From a longer term standpoint, it’s the $26.50 level that I feel and believe is the major support level that has to hold. We are crashing towards it, but we’ve done this before. So, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Keep in mind that silver is not gold, it’s an industrial metal as well as a precious metal.
So, you will have to recognize that it behaves a little bit differently than gold. But at the end of the day, if the US dollar starts to sell off and it looks like it’s going to, we could see silver perhaps get a little bit of a bid. I just don’t think you get it up here I think you need to look at this through the prism of a market that is pulling back from an extreme high.
Again, I think it’s all settled right around the $26.50 level. If we can hold that region as support, this could be a big sign of strength, so it will be interesting if we get down to that level over the next few weeks, which looks very possible to say the least.
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2月前
Silver Continues to See Bullish Pressures on Dips
By: Christopher Lewis | July 31, 2024
• The silver market rallied a bit in the early hours of Wednesday, breaking above the crucial $28.50 level. This is an area that I think will continue to be important, and of course the Federal Reserve announcement later in the day is a big mover as well.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
Silver rallied a bit during the early hours on Wednesday, breaking above the $28.50 level. Breaking above here is a bit of a victory, but we also have to worry about the Federal Reserve coming out later in the day, and that obviously will have a major influence on the US dollar interest rates and therefore the silver market as well. Nonetheless, it does look like we are trying to recover, and it’s worth noting that the last couple of days have been strong, so I still think that the overall proclivity of the market is to rally, but you may be looking for short-term dips in order to take advantage of.
To the upside, we have the 50 day EMA right around the $29.38 level. If we can break that, I think that brings in more FOMO. It’s probably worth noting that we pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level before bouncing, so that’s a healthy sign as well. Whether or not that holds, we’ll have to wait and see, but I do think this is a scenario where traders begin to dip their toe in the water.
If the Federal Reserve is more dovish than anticipated, that probably sends silver much higher. If they’re hawkish or suggest that rate cuts are not coming, it’ll be interesting to see what that does. That will almost certainly cause some type of pullback. Either way, the trend is still up. It’s been a very noisy couple of months now, but when you look at it from the beginning of the year, we are still significantly higher than we were and now have gained about $5 an ounce, even with the massive correction that we had seen.
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2月前
Silver Poised for Bullish Reversal from Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | July 29, 2024
• Silver shows signs of a bullish reversal, rallying above 28.08 and testing key support levels, with potential resistance at 28.57 and higher.
Silver is set to complete a bullish reversal day on Monday. A bullish signal was indicated earlier in the session as silver rallied above Friday’s high of 28.08. Subsequently, sellers took back control and drove the price to a new retracement low of 27.31 before there were signs of support leading to a bounce. At the time of this writing, it looks likely to close relatively strong, in the top half of the day’s trading range. It may also set up a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. The low traded price for the day successfully tested the 50% retracement zone as support.
Bullish Reversal Above 28.20
Heading into Tuesday’s session, a bullish reversal will be triggered on a decisive rally above today’s high of 28.20. Notice that support was found the past few days around the top downtrend line. It previously represented resistance and now support.
Each of the past few days closed at or above the line, even though intraday silver fell below the line. Also, notice that support has been seen around the completion of a falling ABCD pattern (D) and along with the trendline the past few days closed at or above the 27.81 target for the pattern. This is further technical evidence for a potential bounce.
A rally above today’s high would open the door for an advance to test potential resistance at higher prices. The first target would be around 28.57, which was the prior swing low support until it was busted Thursday during a sharp selloff. Higher up is last week’s high of 29.45. The 50-Day and 20-Day MAs are at 29.92 and 30.02, respectively.
Lower Price Levels Start with 26.74
On the downside, silver is at risk of reaching lower support levels if today’s low of 27.31 fails to remain support. A 127.2% extension for the falling ABCD pattern completes at 26.74. Further down is a support zone identified by several indicators. It starts with a 26.14 swing high from May 2023 and ends at the 200-Day MA at 25.89. Moreover, also included within target range is a 25.91 swing high from December 2023 and a swing low of 26.02 from May. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement completes at 25.98.
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2月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 27, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 28020 and is trading up about 16% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. Presently, this market has been declining for 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 28730 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in July is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32015 and it has broken last month's low falling to 27555 while it is still trading below last month's low of 28730.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28825.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 4 weeks reaching a high during the week of July 8th at 30620. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 13.93% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2月前
Silver Continues to See Selling
By: Christopher Lewis | July 26, 2024
• This week has been rough on the silver market, as we have plunged below the crucial $28.50 region. Now that we are below here, we are watching the next massive support level below to see if the buyers will return.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The silver market has plunged lower during the course of the trading sessions that make up this past week, as we are now well below the $28.50 level. At this point, we are starting to pay attention to whether or not the support underneath gets tested with the $26.50 level coming into play. That was an area that had massive resistance previously, so one would assume that a bit of market memory is probably found here. If we can turn around and break above the $28.50 level, then it’s likely that the market will go looking to the $31.50 level over the longer term.
Keep an eye on the US dollar because if it starts to strengthen, that could work against the silver market. And of course, pay attention to gold. While gold isn’t necessarily the same market, it does tend to eventually move in the same direction with silver and of course, vice versa. Interest rates of course come into play as well and if they start to drop, then it makes metals a little bit more attractive.
But again, that’s more of a gold story than it is silver. Remember, silver is also an industrial metal, so you have to be very cautious and recognize that industrial and commercial demand comes into play as well and can cause a bit of noise occasionally. However, I believe at this point in time you are better off watching the gold market, and occasionally look at this market for any real shot at turning things around.
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2月前
Silver Reaches Support Yet Remains at Risk of Deeper Correction
By: Bruce Powers | July 22, 2024
• After hitting a low of 28.75, silver bounced, testing a key support zone. If the bounce holds, it may signal a bullish reversal.
Silver dips to a new retracement low to test support at 28.75, the low for the day. That price level was swing high resistance from May 2021. It was also an area of support in June during the retracement. Today, silver hit it exactly and then bounced. If strength from the bounce can hold into today’s close, silver will be on track to end today’s session with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern at a key support zone.
Today’s 28.75 Low Retests of Key Support
The key support zone begins with today’s low of 28.75 and goes down to the most recent swing low of 28.57. If the price of silver does not fall below 28.57 and stay there, the potential for a bullish reversal from the support zone exists. Otherwise, silver is at risk of a larger bearish correction from the May trend high of 32.52. Notice that the purple 20-Day MA has now crossed below the orange 50-Day MA for the first time since early-March.
Lower Swing High is a Concern
The June 11 swing high of 31.76 is a lower high than the May high. Once there is a lower swing high the potential for retracement below the 28.57 swing low exists as it sets up a potential ABCD correction as highlighted on the chart. An initial target from the pattern is at 27.81. However, extended targets are down at 26.74 and 25.37.
There are a couple additional price zones that can be watched for support on the way down. The 50% retracement is at 27.23 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 25.98. However, the 61.8% price level takes on greater significance given the confluence with prior price structure. There is a May 2023 swing high at 26.14 and a December 2023 swing high at 25.91. Finally, the 200-Day MA is at 25.75. Together these price targets generate a potential support zone from 26.14 to 25.75.
Bounce Likely Tests 30.10 or Higher
If silver bounces from current support, the first sign of strength would be on a rally above today’s high of 29.43. That would put silver in a position to likely test resistance around the 20-Day and 50-Day lines. They are at 30.10 and 30.21, respectively.
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3月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 20, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 29299 and is trading up about 21% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 29560, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32015 intraday while it is still trading above last month's close of 29560.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 29490 and support forming below at 28730. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 30620. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28855. Additional support is to be found at 28730. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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3月前
Silver Traders Should Stay Focused On Gold/Silver Ratio
By: Vladimir Zernov | July 19, 2024
Key Points:
• Unlike gold, silver has no support from central banks.
• As a result, additional demand for silver depends on speculative traders and investors.
• The analysis of gold/silver ratio dynamics is increasingly important for success in silver trading.
Gold markets have recently tested historic highs, but silver failed to gain sufficient upside momentum and did not manage to get to the test of the highs that were reached back in May.
The fluctuations of gold/silver ratio served as the key catalyst for recent weakness in silver markets. At the end of May, gold/silver ratio reached a low of 72.74 and then stabilized near the 77.50 level. In recent days, gold/silver ratio gained strong upside momentum and moved above the 82 level, which was bearish for silver markets.
What’s driving gold silver ratio? At this point, silver markets are mostly driven by speculators, as industrial demand is stable. Unlike gold, silver does not enjoy support from central banks, which means that silver markets must attract speculative investors to make a strong move.
As a result, silver traders are closely watching dynamics of gold markets and start buying silver when gold is moving higher. If these traders believe that gold is about to face resistance, they sell silver. This type of behaviour causes wild fluctuations of gold/silver ratio, which serves as a key indicator for silver traders.
This year, gold/silver ratio was moving between the highs at 92.10, which were reached in January, and the above-mentioned lows at 72.74. Gold/silver ratio has recently moved above the strong resistance near the 80 level and continues to move higher, putting additional pressure on silver markets.
In case gold markets continue to move away from historic highs, silver may find itself under more pressure, as gold/silver ratio could move closer to yearly highs.
When demand for gold starts rising again, silver could outperform as gold/silver ratio will likely decline. In this scenario, speculative traders would rush to buy the relatively cheap silver to capitalize on the upside moves in gold markets. Thus, watching gold/silver ratio dynamics is extremely important for success in silver trading in 2024.
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3月前
Silver Continues to Look For Momentum
By: Christopher Lewis | July 18, 2024
• The silver market rallied a bit in the early hours on Thursday, as the market is trying to recover from the massive selloff on Wednesday. This is a market that will remain volatile, so make sure that you keep your position size reasonable.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but quite frankly, we’ve got a situation where we had sold off so viciously on Wednesday that I think you’re probably better off waiting to see whether or not we can turn things around. After all, as we head into the New York session, we have given up half the gains.
That doesn’t mean that the Americans won’t pick this market up and continue to drive it higher. It just means that the market is more likely than not going to continue to be a little on edge, I do believe that the $30 level is crucial, and it certainly has shown itself to be so during the day on Wednesday, but even if we broke down below there, it doesn’t necessarily change the trend. It just shows that we are going to remain very choppy and volatile.
The 50-day EMA sits just below there, and I think that is also something worth paying attention to as well. With all of that being said, silver is most certainly a market that you’re going to have to be cautious with because it’s volatile under the best of circumstances, but it’s also driven mainly most of the time by interest rates, but it can also be driven by risk appetite, geopolitics, those types of things.
So, you also have to be aware of that. Ultimately, I think you continue to see a lot of noise, and I think silver continues to be a bit of a wild animal that you have to be very cautious with your position sizing more than anything else. It does favor the upside, so that is, I think, the most important thing to pay attention to.
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3月前
Silver Continues to Look “Buy on The Dip”
By: Christopher Lewis | July 16, 2024
• Silver continues to look bullish, but at the end of the day, the market got a little stretched. At this point, I am looking at the $30 level with a lot of interest, and I think the rest of the market is as well. Ultimately, we are in a big uptrend.
Silver Markets Technical Analysis
The silver market initially tried to rally during the session on Tuesday, but it looks as if it is going to struggle a little bit ultimately, and I think this is a market that will eventually try to sort itself out and rally.
But the retail sales coming in hotter than anticipated in the United States has yields rising. So, it’s working against silver a little bit. That’s actually not a bad thing because the market is a little overdone. A little bit of a pullback offers value and I do think that the $30 level is more likely than not going to attract a certain amount of buying.
Furthermore, we have the 50 day EMA racing towards that level. So that’s also something worth paying attention to as the market does love its large, round, psychologically significant figures. We’ve seen action at the $30 level before, so would not be a huge surprise to see it come into the picture again as a potential area of support.
Above, we have the $32 level offering a ceiling, that’s a large round figure that has been resistant. I think that’s eventually where we go, but we may have to pull back just a little bit to offer enough value and entice enough traders into the market. All things being equal, silver, of course, will run on interest rates, industrial demand and to a lesser extent, geopolitical tensions as it is a precious metal.
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3月前
Silver Consolidates Near Highs, Poised for Potential Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | July 15, 2024
• Silver has been consolidating near recent highs, with a breakout above 31.76 signaling bullish continuation. Key support around 30.14-29.80 underpins the near-term bullish outlook.
Silver has been consolidating for the past six days, since reaching a high of 31.49 on Friday July 5. A subsequent higher rally high of 31.76 was reached last Thursday. An advance above that high will trigger a bullish continuation of the rising trend. Key near-term support is close by around 30.14 to 29.99. It starts with a swing high from February 2021, followed by the 20-Day MA at 30.07 and the 50-Day MA at 30.00.
Another swing high, this time from April 12, shows at 29.80. Together, these price levels can be considered as a range from around 30.14 to 29.80. A near-term bullish outlook is maintained if silver stays above that price zone during weakness.
Bullish Reversal on Channel Breakout
On July 3, silver triggered an upside breakout from a bearish retracement channel. The breakout was decisive, completing a wide ranged green candle with a close near the highs. In addition to the channel breakout through a downtrend line, a bull breakout of both the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA was also triggered. Notice that during the recent decline the 20-Day line approached the 50-Day line, but it did not drop below it. As prices reverted towards the mean, the two moving averages converged towards each other.
Low Volatility Has Higher Volatility on Deck
Lower volatility typically leads to higher volatility, and that looks to be what silver is preparing for. Declines towards support are likely to be used by investors to build a position at somewhat lower prices than seen recently. That support area should be strong enough to lead to a bullish rally that sees silver exceeded the recent 31.76 swing high. A pullback before an upside breakout refreshes the situation and better prepares silver for a sustained rally towards previous highs from 32.30 to 32.52.
50-Day MA Trend Support is Key
Since trend support was reestablished recently around the 50-Day MA, it should continue to represent a key trend support area as prices further appreciate. The recent attempt to fall below the 50-Day MA was eventually met with support and a recapture of the line. Given the subsequent bullish recovery, another test of support may occur, but the 50-Day line should stay strong and stop an additional decline in prices. Let’s also keep in mind that a bullish signal triggered on the July monthly chart this month. It sets up the potential for bullish follow through on that time frame. Therefore, the shorter time frame patterns should keep in mind the larger developing monthly bullish pattern.
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3月前
NY Silver COMEX Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 13, 2024
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 31162 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 24086. This price action here in July is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32015 intraday and is still trading above that high of 31670.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Silver COMEX Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2015 and 2001. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2011 and 1998.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Silver COMEX Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Silver COMEX Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30785 and overhead resistance forming above at 31435. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 8th at 32015, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 10th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32015 to 30620. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 8th reaching 32015 failed to exceed the previous high of 32750 made back during the week of May 20th. That rally amounted to only seven weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 24044 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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3月前
Silver Continues to See Volatile Moves
By: Christopher Lewis | July 12, 2024
• The silver market has been all over the place during the week, but it still remains a very bullish market. Keep in mind that inflation is still an open question for a lot of traders, and of course we’re not sure what the Federal Reserve will end up doing.
Silver Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, and of course that is mainly driven by the central bank expectations, and on Thursday, the CPI numbers in the United States came out at half of what they were supposed to. But on Friday, the PPI numbers came out four times hotter than they were supposed to. So, with that being said, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but clearly the Federal Reserve has a lot to think about still.
And that is the one thing it seems that is really keeping silver from truly just launching. That being said, silver is a very thin contract at times, and it also is a huge contract. So, you need to be very cautious. And therefore, I think a little bit of a pullback is probably a good thing, especially when you look at the candlestick from last week.
Yes, it’s a positive market and I certainly would not short silver. But I think at this point in time you have to look at it through the prism of a market that you’re trying to find value in. The $30 level would be very intriguing to me if we could find it. And then after that you have $28.50. Anything below there becomes a potential warning sign. But right now, I think this is a market that you’re looking for value to ride out the upward momentum and hopefully break above the $32 level cleanly, which would allow silver to go much higher.
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