Inaugural HKTDC Export Confidence Index: Rising expectations of export uptick
2024年3月27日 - 7:00PM
JCN Newswire
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) released its
inaugural HKTDC Export Confidence Index today.
An upgrade to the well-established HKTDC Export Index, the new
quarterly HKTDC Export Confidence Index will provide a more nuanced
and comprehensive overview of business sentiment among Hong
Kong-based exporters.
Derived from a survey of more than 500 Hong Kong exporters, the
Export Confidence Index comprises five sub-indices - Sales and New
Orders, Trade Value, Cost, Procurement and Inventory. These
findings are evaluated in terms of Current Performance (how they
represent present market sentiment) and Expectation (a measure of
exporter sentiment with regard to the coming quarter).
For the first quarter of 2024 (January-March), the overall
Expectation score was 47.4. This figure is close to the 50
benchmark (the dividing point between contractionary and
expansionary trends) indicating an improved near-term export
outlook. It was also notable that the Expectation scores for all
sub-indices comfortably exceeded the Current Performance reading of
39.6, which, again, suggests exporters are confident that better
times lie ahead.
Commenting on the thinking behind the new index, HKTDC Director of
Research Irina Fan said: "Multiple elements impact exporter
confidence and we now have an evaluation system that allows us to
factor them all in. This will ensure that our quarterly assessment
of this key component of Hong Kong's economy is more versatile,
more relevant and more insightful than ever before.
"The success of this initiative to date has allowed us to
confidently report a likely uptick in orders from Mainland China,
as well as a gradual overall recovery in exports that looks set to
be led by the electronics sector."
Optimistic prospects in Mainland China and US
Among the other key findings, the Sales and New Orders sub-index
highlighted rising confidence in export growth, with its 49.9
reading close enough to 50 to suggest a high likelihood of
stabilisation.
On the market front, exporters are generally more optimistic with
regard to Mainland China and the United States, with exporters
anticipating resumed growth in mainland orders in the second
quarter.
Of the six key export sectors, electronics enjoyed the most
positive outlook, followed by timepieces, equipment/materials,
clothing, toys and jewellery.
There are also signs of stronger procurement activity in the
electronics, toys and equipment/materials sectors as the
corresponding Expectation indices approach or exceed the 50
level.
Overseas markets to regain growth momentum
For survey respondents, economic risks remained the primary concern
among the external market issues that could potentially impact
exports over the next 12 months. For 83.3% of respondents, an
economic slowdown/recession in their primary markets was considered
the biggest potential obstacle to export growth.
Putting the findings into perspective, Cherry Yeung, the HKTDC
Senior Economist with oversight of the new Index, said: "Despite
such concerns, there are many positive takeaways from the Q1
survey. Some 70% of traders, for instance, are anticipating resumed
growth in their core overseas markets, while 37.1% are expecting a
rapid upturn in mainland market demand. Looking beyond that, 36.4%
of respondents are confident that e-commerce will provide new
impetus for many export businesses in the course of the coming
year.
"It is also reassuring that 55.9% of exporters believe their future
profitability will remain unchanged or actually improve, with 40.9%
expecting their profit levels to stay stable and 15% seeing an
upturn on the horizon."
References
HKTDC Export Confidence Index:
https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MTY0Nzc3MTE3OQ
HKTDC Research website: https://research.hktdc.com/en/
Photo download: https://bit.ly/3xfpjHJ
Media enquiries
Please contact the HKTDC's Communication and Public Affairs
Department:
Jane Cheung
Tel: (852) 2584 4137
Email: jane.mh.cheung@hktdc.org
About HKTDC
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body
established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's
trade. With 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China,
the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and
business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions,
conferences and business missions to create business opportunities
for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also
provides up-to-date market insights and product information via
research reports and digital news channels. For more information,
please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus. Follow us on Twitter @hktdc
and LinkedIn
Copyright 2024 JCN Newswire . All rights reserved.