Monthly housing payments have dropped to their
lowest level in four months, but homebuyers and sellers aren’t yet
reacting. In addition to pending home sales falling, new listings
posted their smallest increase in three months.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. monthly housing payment was
$2,667 during the four weeks ending July 28, its lowest level since
March. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com),
the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Payments are declining because mortgage rates and sale prices
are falling: The weekly average mortgage rate is 6.78%, down from
May’s five-month high of 7.22%. The median home-sale price is
$392,563, down nearly $4,000 from its early July peak (that’s a
typical seasonal decline and not a signal that prices are falling
unexpectedly).
Despite improving affordability, pending home sales are down
5.7% year over year, the biggest decline in nine months, and
mortgage-purchase applications are down 14% (purchase applications
are down 2% week over week). That’s largely because even though
it’s more affordable to buy a home now than it was in the spring,
prices and payments are still near record highs. Additionally,
Redfin agents report that some prospective buyers, wary of
political uncertainty, are waiting until after the presidential
election to purchase a home.
Another reason for dwindling sales is a lack of desirable
listings. New listings are up 4% year over year, but they’re losing
momentum; that’s the smallest increase since November. And nearly
two-thirds of homes for sale have been sitting on the market for at
least 30 days without going under contract, indicating that many of
today’s listings don’t match the wants and/or needs of house
hunters. Much as pending sales are declining partly due to new
listings losing steam, the slowdown in new listings is partly due
to limited demand.
But Redfin agents report that there is plenty of demand for
turnkey homes in desirable neighborhoods, and some expect sales to
pick up soon as mortgage rates come down.
“Local buyers are still worried about affordability, especially
since wages haven’t caught up with home-price growth and inflation
has cut into their budgets. But now that rates are declining, some
fence-sitters are getting off the fence,” said Boise, ID Redfin
agent Nicole Stewart. “I’m working with some buyers who need larger
homes to accommodate growing families, some who are relocating from
California, Washington or Oregon, and some who are taking advantage
of all the new builds in our area.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit
Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.78% (July 31)
Lowest level since February; down
from 7.14% a month earlier
Down from 7.04%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.78% (week ending July 25)
Down from 7.22% in early May
Down slightly from 6.81%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Decreased 2% from a week earlier
(as of week ending July 26)
Down 14%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Essentially unchanged from a
month earlier (as of week ending July 28)
Down 14%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a
measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from
Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 16% from the start of the year
(as of July 28)
At this time last year, it was up
10% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring
technology company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of
July 29)
Down 19%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July
28, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending July 28,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$392,563
4.1%
$3,912 below all-time high set
during the 4 weeks ending July 7
Median asking price
$400,225
5%
Median monthly mortgage
payment
$2,667 at a 6.78% mortgage
rate
4%
Lowest level since March; $168
below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
79,855
-5.7%
Biggest decline in nearly 9
months
New listings
90,940
4%
Smallest increase in nearly 9
months
Active listings
989,047
18.7%
Smallest increase in 3 months
Months of supply
3.8
+0.8 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in
two weeks
37.6%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
33
+5 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
30.8%
Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.8%
+1.8 pts.
Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.4%
-0.5 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending July 28, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Detroit (17.2%)
New Brunswick, NJ (15%)
Providence, RI (13.6%)
Milwaukee (13%)
West Palm Beach, FL (12.8%)
Austin, TX (-2.3%)
Dallas (-0.4%)
Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales
San Francisco (7.1%)
Newark, NJ (6.9%)
Los Angeles (4.1%)
San Jose, CA (3.3%)
Boston (2.7%)
Providence, RI (2.6%)
Cincinnati, OH (0.7%)
Houston (-30.5%)
Atlanta (-16.1%)
Minneapolis (-15.2%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-14%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-13%)
Increased in 7 metros
New listings
Las Vegas (17.5%)
San Jose, CA (17.3%)
Jacksonville, FL (16.1%)
Miami (15.4%)
San Diego (15%)
Atlanta (-16%)
Houston (-12.9%)
Warren, MI (-8.5%)
Portland, OR (-7.6%)
Chicago (-7.1%)
Declined in 13 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-monthly-payments-down
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240801617669/en/
Contact Redfin Redfin Journalist Services: Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
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