Pending home sales are falling despite
declining housing payments because some homebuyers are hoping
mortgage rates fall further before they make a move, and others are
waiting for clarity on the new NAR rules
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. monthly housing payment fell to
$2,534 during the four weeks ending September 1, the lowest level
since January and down nearly $300 from April's all-time high,
according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage. Housing payments are
falling because even though home prices remain near record highs,
weekly average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in
a year and a half.
But declining housing payments have yet to improve home
sales. Pending homes sales fell 8.4% year over year, the
biggest decline in nearly a year. Some would-be homebuyers are on
the sidelines because they’re still priced out of the market, and
are waiting for mortgage rates to fall further. Redfin agents are
also reporting that some buyers are waiting for more clarity on
what the new NAR rules mean for real estate agent fees, and others
are waiting to buy until after the presidential election.
“There is demand for desirable, move-in ready listings, but some
house hunters are in a holding pattern because the industry is in
flux,” said Van Welborn, a Redfin Premier agent in Phoenix. “Some
buyers are waiting to see how the NAR rules shake out before they
get serious. Others believe rates will come down more substantially
after the Fed cuts interest rates later this month, and they’re
waiting for that to happen before they buy.”
Mortgage rates may not come down much more than they already
have. That’s because markets have already priced in
interest-rate cuts from the Fed, starting in September and going
through 2025. If the cuts are smaller and slower than expected,
mortgage rates would rise from where they are today. If the Fed
cuts faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to decline
further. If rates do fall substantially more than they already
have, that could push up demand, competition and home prices.
There are some signals that more prospective buyers are
touring homes and prepping to purchase, even if they’re not yet
buying. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week over
week. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of tours and other
buying services from Redfin agents–is up 4% from a month ago, and
is near its highest level since May.
The supply of homes for sale is increasing modestly. New
listings of homes for sale are up 3.7% year over year, on par with
increases over the last few months, and total listings are up
16.6%. Total supply is rising partly because some homeowners who
had been locked in by their relatively low mortgage rates are
selling now that rates have come down a bit. Also, sluggish
homebuyer demand is causing unsold listings to pile up.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit
Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.38% (Sept. 4)
Near lowest level since spring 2023
Down from 7.06%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.35% (week ending Aug. 29)
Lowest level since May 2023
Down from 7.18%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Increased 3% from a week earlier (as of
week ending Aug. 30)
Down 4%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 4% from a month earlier; near highest
level since May
(as of week ending Sept. 1)
Down 7%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of
tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Down 4% from the start of the year (as of
Sept 3)
(Down mostly due to Labor Day)
At this time last year, it was down 4%
from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 6% from a month earlier (as of Aug.
26)
unchanged
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
Sept. 1, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending Sept. 1, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$389,500
3.9%
About $5,000 below all-time high set
during the 4 weeks ending July 7
Median asking price
$393,700
5.3%
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,534 at a 6.35% mortgage rate
-1%
Lowest level since January; $291 below
all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
78,666
-8.4%
Biggest decline since Oct. 2023
New listings
87,132
3.7%
Active listings
993,565
16.6%
Smallest increase since April
Months of supply
3.6
+0.8 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered
balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
35.3%
Down from 39%
Median days on market
36
+6 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
28.1%
Down from 33%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.6%
+1.3 pts.
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.1%
-0.5 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending Sept. 1, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Philadelphia (11.9%)
Milwaukee (11.4%)
Nassau County, NY (10.1%)
Providence, RI (8.8%)
Newark, NJ (7.8%)
Austin, TX (-4.5%)
Fort Worth, TX (-1.7%)
San Francisco, CA (-1.2%)
Tampa, FL (-1.1%)
San Antonio (-1%)
Oakland, CA (-0.9%)
Houston (-0.3%)
Declined in 7 metros
Pending sales
San Francisco (7.1%)
Boston (6%)
San Jose, CA (4%)
Los Angeles (3.9%)
Riverside, CA (3.5%)
Miami (-17.4%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-17%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-16.9%)
Atlanta (-15.1%)
Houston (-12.8%)
Increased in 16 metros
New listings
San Diego (17.4%)
Las Vegas (15.4%)
Phoenix (14.2%)
Anaheim, CA (13.8%)
Houston (12%)
Atlanta (-15.6%)
San Antonio (-13.4%)
Newark, NJ (-10.7%)
Austin, TX (-10.6%)
Chicago (-6.7%)
Declined in 13 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-dropping-sales-declining
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240905109222/en/
Contact Redfin Redfin Journalist Services: Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
過去 株価チャート
から 8 2024 まで 9 2024
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
過去 株価チャート
から 9 2023 まで 9 2024