Pending home sales posted their biggest decline
in nearly a year, despite the median U.S. housing payment dropping
to its lowest level in five months
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Pending home sales fell 6.9% during the four
weeks ending August 25, the biggest annual decline in nearly a year
according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s despite the median
monthly U.S. housing payment falling to its lowest level since
February as weekly average mortgage rates drop to their lowest
level in 15 months.
Sales aren’t yet improving because many would-be homebuyers are
playing the waiting game. Redfin agents report that house hunters
are touring homes, but some of them are hesitant to buy right now.
Would-be buyers are waiting for one or all of the
following:
- Clarity on the NAR settlement. The new rules for how
agents, buyers and sellers negotiate agent fees went into effect on
August 17. Some would-be buyers and sellers are waiting to see how
these rules play out before getting into the market. “Some buyers
have likely been scared off by agents falsely claiming that the new
NAR rules require an exclusive buyer representation agreement just
to tour a home,” said Jason Aleem, Redfin’s chief of real estate
services. “At Redfin, we make sure buyers understand our fees
before they tour, but we would never lock you into working with us
before we’ve had a chance to win your business.”
- Lower home prices. Even though monthly payments are
declining, home-sale prices are just a few thousand dollars shy of
early July’s record high. That’s partly because inventory is losing
momentum; the total number of homes for sale posted its smallest
year-over-year increase in five months.
- Lower mortgage rates. Some homebuyers are hoping
mortgage rates will decline more than they already have after the
Fed cuts interest rates in September. (It’s worth noting that if
mortgage rates do drop significantly, it could lead to more
competition and higher home prices.)
- The outcome of the presidential election. Some house
hunters are hesitant to make a big purchase amid this year’s
political uncertainty, and believe the outcome of the presidential
election could change the course of economic, housing and other
policies that affect their decision to move.
“I expect more buyers and sellers to jump into the market in a
few months, once everyone has a better understanding of how the new
NAR rules will play out in actual real-estate deals,” said Fernanda
Kriese, a Redfin Premier agent in Las Vegas. “The election and the
drop in mortgage rates are also delaying buyers; a lot of them are
waiting on the sidelines until November, hoping to get a lower rate
and maybe more homes to choose from.”
Mortgage-purchase applications are up 1% week over week on a
seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting that at least some buyers are
coming off the sidelines, but applications are still down 9% from a
year ago.
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit
Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.37% (Aug. 28)
Near lowest level since spring 2023
Down from 7.29%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.46% (week ending Aug. 22)
Lowest level since May 2023
Down from 7.23%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of
week ending Aug. 23)
Down 9%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Touring activity
Up 6% from the start of the year (as of
Aug. 19)
At this time last year, it was up 2% from
the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 10% from a month earlier (as of Aug.
26)
Down 3%
Google Trends
We excluded Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand
Index this week to ensure the accuracy of our data. It will be back
next week.
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
August 25, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending August 25,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$389,975
3.6%
Up about $1,000 from a week
earlier, but $6,000 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks
ending July 7
Median asking price
$395,500
5.5%
Median monthly mortgage
payment
$2,568 at a 6.46% mortgage
rate
-0.4%
Lowest level since Feb.; $258
below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
79,279
-6.9%
Biggest decline since Oct.
2023
New listings
89,241
3%
Active listings
990,630
16.7%
Smallest increase since April
Months of supply
3.6
+0.7 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in
two weeks
35.8%
Down from 41%
Median days on market
35
+5 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
28.6%
Down from 34%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.8%
+1.4 pts.
Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.1%
-0.6 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending August 25, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Philadelphia (15.1%)
Milwaukee (10.8%)
Anaheim, CA (10.1%)
Nassau County, NY (9.7%)
Providence, RI (8.5%)
Austin, TX (-2.8%)
Fort Worth, TX (-1.5%)
Tampa, FL (-0.6%)
San Francisco, CA (-0.5%)
San Diego, CA (-0.3%)
San Antonio (-0.3%)
Nashville, TN (-0.1%)
Declined in 7 metros
Pending sales
San Francisco (9.1%)
Boston (8.2%)
San Jose, CA (7.1%)
Los Angeles (7%)
Riverside, CA (5.4%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.3%)
Atlanta (-15.8%)
Miami (-15.3%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (-15%)
Tampa, FL (-14.5%)
Increased in 11 metros
New listings
San Diego (15.2%)
Los Angeles (13.7%)
San Jose, CA (12.7%)
Phoenix (11.1%)
Montgomery County, PA (10.9%)
Atlanta (-16.7%)
Austin, TX (-8.9%)
San Antonio (-8.2%)
Newark, NJ (-7.2%)
Tampa, FL (-6.7%)
Declined in 14 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-pending-sales-housing-payments-fall
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240829589104/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Tana Kelley press@redfin.com
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