Crypto Prices Go Up: A ‘Cautious Bullish’ Outlook Amid Fed Worries And Market Volatility
2024年10月15日 - 4:30PM
NEWSBTC
A recent report from centralized exchange (CEX) Blofin highlights a
cautiously bullish sentiment among crypto investors, even as
macroeconomic indicators and global market conditions continue to
inject a degree of precaution into the market. Market
Anticipates Limited Fed Rate Cuts According to the firm’s analysis,
one significant factor influencing market sentiment is the
surprisingly positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for
September, which has altered expectations regarding future interest
rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Currently, the
market anticipates that the Fed will implement a total of only 45
basis points (bps) in rate cuts for the remainder of the year.
Moreover, the options market suggests that there may be just one
additional rate cut in 2024, likely a 25 bps reduction, followed by
a pause in early 2025. Related Reading: Solana Extends Rally
By 4%, But This Factor Could Lead To A Top This outlook aligns with
prior analyses by Blofin, which indicate that the Fed’s capacity
for further cuts has diminished, indicating a shift from aggressive
liquidity injections to a more measured approach. However, the
recent CPI surprise has also intensified market uncertainty, as
reflected in the MOVE index, which tracks volatility in Treasury
yields. This index surged to its highest level since June
2024, signaling heightened apprehension among investors.
Concurrently, volatility indices for other assets have also
increased, highlighting a broader trend of rising uncertainty.
Despite these challenges, both the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US
equities have demonstrated resilience, maintaining strength even
amid shifting economic conditions. Yet, a notable decline in
equity risk premiums suggests a growing complacency among investors
or a diminished reward for taking on equity risk. This reduced
premium could expose the market to greater vulnerabilities in the
event of unforeseen shocks. Optimism Grows In Crypto Options Market
In the crypto space, recent price movements have been notable, with
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experiencing significant surges.
Analysis from GEX points out that there are currently no clear
resistance levels in the market, suggesting that price movements
might continue without substantial barriers. However, the
exchange noted that this lack of structural support also
underscores the market’s “inherent fragility.” They contend that if
investor sentiment were to shift, the current price levels could be
difficult to maintain. Additionally, the options market has seen a
shift in skewness toward a more optimistic position, though it
remains within a neutral range. This change indicates a growing
confidence among crypto investors, albeit without overwhelming
bullish sentiment. Notably, tail risk pricing has been on the rise
since the end of September. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst
Predicts ‘Giga Pump’ For XRP Price, Here’s The Target Overall, this
trend reflects investors’ concerns about potential “extreme
negative events,” underscoring that, despite the recent rally seen
in the crypto market, uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate
cuts and broader macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh heavily
on sentiment. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at
$65,970, up more than 5% in the 24-hour time frame. Featured
image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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