Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport
2023年11月22日 - 5:15PM
NEWSBTC
Matrixport, a leading digital finance platform, today, November 22,
released a comprehensive research note focusing on the significant
implications of yesterday’s developments in the crypto industry,
particularly regarding the prospects of a spot Bitcoin
Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States. Following the
guilty plea of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and the substantial
financial settlements involved, Matrixport suggests that the path
for approving a spot Bitcoin ETF might have become significantly
clearer. The note highlights the regulatory crackdowns and
compliance upgrades in the crypto sector, indicating a shift
towards greater regulatory alignment with traditional financial
(TradFi) systems. “Some would argue that the US agencies have
cleaned up the industry this year by dismantling the US
crypto-related banks, as two of them were running an internal
ledger that crypto companies could use 24/7 to transfer fiat.
Arguably, few (perceived) major actors are left, and with Bitcoin
only declining -3.4% during the last 24 hours, the market is
stomaching a major risk-off event,” Matrixport remarks. Spot
Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds At 100% Now? The company points out that
with stringent enforcement actions and enhanced compliance programs
becoming the norm among crypto exchanges, the differentiation
between regulated and non-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges may
become a key metric in 2024. This shift is seen as instrumental in
the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, a
development long anticipated by the industry. Related Reading: Spot
Bitcoin ETF Is ‘A Buy The News’ Event: Pantera Capital CEO “The
result will likely be that more exchanges will enhance their
compliance programs and become part of a surveillance-sharing
agreement, which will be instrumental in approving a spot Bitcoin
ETF in the US,” the firm stated, adding, “With this plea deal,
the expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF might have increased to
100% as the industry will be forced to follow the rules that TradFi
firms must follow.” The firm believes that this “whitewashing” of
the industry will not only enhance Bitcoin’s adoption by
institutional players but also position it as a safe-haven asset in
investment portfolios. “More importantly, this industry’s
whitewashing will strengthen the Bitcoin adoption case for
institutional players and will likely become a safe-haven asset in
investors’ portfolios,” Matrixport predicts. Related Reading:
Bitcoin ETF Hype: Bloomberg Intelligence Envisions $100 Billion
Market With Regulatory Approval The note also touches on the
anticipated sale of the FTX exchange and its potential relaunch
under a US securities law-compliant management team by Q3 2024.
Matrixport speculates that this could lead to significant inflows,
estimated between $24-50 billion, into any US-listed Bitcoin
ETF. They also note the increasing trend of crypto firms
making markets on CME-listed crypto derivatives, indicating a shift
from retail-focused, unregulated exchanges to those that are fully
regulated and cater to institutional clients. ‘Dark Cloud Has Been
Removed’ As ETF Makes Progress Analysts and industry experts have
echoed Matrixport’s sentiments. Will Clemente, a noted analyst,
stated, “With resolution on Binance, just a matter of weeks until
Bitcoin ETF approval now.” Tony “The Bull” Severino, head of
research at NewsBTC, commented, “A dark cloud has just been removed
from the crypto market.” Conversely, Scott Johnsson, a finance
lawyer at Davis Polk, offered a more cautious view, suggesting that
“It’s far more likely an ETF decision led the Binance resolution
than the other way around imo. And I’m not convinced either is that
likely.” Remarkably, there has been some movement in the spot ETF
approval process in the last few days. Ark Invest has kicked off
the third round of amendments to the S-1 filings, Grayscale had a
meeting with the US Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday
regarding its “uplisting.” At press time, BTC traded at $36,483.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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