LONDON, Oct. 18,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The percentage of UK small
business predicting growth for the final three-months of 2024
remains at the two-year high of last quarter (35%) - with
significant upturns in growth forecasts across the North, the
Midlands and among younger
businesses - according to new research from Novuna Business
Finance.
The quarterly tracking research from Novuna, now in its tenth
year, goes beyond an attitudinal snapshot of business confidence
and instead tracks the percentage of business owners that forecast
actual business growth each quarter. The last quarterly cycle of
Novuna research, conducted immediately after July's General
Election, revealed a two-year high for the percentage of
enterprises that predicted growth (35%). The new Q4 figures – 35%
again - suggest this summer bounce-back was not a flash in the plan
but could be the start of a new, sustainable, period of growth
outlook for UK small businesses.
The Novuna Business Finance study indicates that, since the
General Election, the Quarter-on-Quarter upturns in small business
growth forecasts are happening in the North and the Midlands, rather than the South East or South
West. In the North East, small business growth forecasts have
jumped from 19% to 36% since the eve of the General Election.
Novuna's research noted similar rises in the North West (up from
23% to 34%), the East Midlands
(27% to 37%) and West Midlands (up
from 29% to 40%). Conversely, whilst growth outlook is usually
disproportionately strong in Central
London (57%), small business growth outlook has become
subdued in the South East and South West, with no meaningful
seasonal rises for Q4 (35% and 23% respectively).
In addition to evidence of resurgent small business confidence
in the North and Midlands, younger
businesses (those trading for less than five years) have seen
growth forecasts improve over four consecutive quarters during
2024. In contrast, among older businesses (those trading for more
than 20 years), growth outlook has fallen this year. The smaller
size and digital agility of younger businesses has, perhaps, made
them more able to adapt to change this year.
Jo Morris Head of Insight at
Novuna Business Finance comments: "Whilst there is a lot
of speculation on what lies ahead for businesses in the Autumn
Budget, the last four months have been a period of relative
positivity and consistency for UK small businesses. For the last
two consecutive quarters, 35% of small business owners have told us
they forecast growth, which represents a marked upturn from 30%
before July - and the years between Covid and the cost-of-living
crisis, which was a period stagnation in terms of small business
growth forecasts.
"As the Government pledges to create equity of opportunity more
broadly across the UK, it is noteworthy from our data that small
business growth is on the rise across the Midlands and the North. There are challenges
ahead this autumn, as eyes turn to the Autumn Budget and the
economic ramifications of the US Presidential election result, but
UK small businesses go into Q4 in their most buoyant mood for two
years – and we at Novuna Business Finance will be supporting mature
businesses to help them invest in future growth initiatives and to
realise their full potential."
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