State Street Global Advisors, the asset management business of
State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT), today launched its 2024
Global Market Outlook: Positioning the Pieces outlining a mixed
outlook and key investment themes for the year ahead.
Following a year of market-moving surprises in 2023, including
persistent inflation, muted growth, an abrupt banking crisis, and
continued monetary policy tightening, State Street Global Advisors
anticipates this uncertainty will remain in 2024, with sub-trend
growth projected across the globe.
Although the path to a soft landing remains the firm’s base
case, investors should remain cautious amid the headwinds global
economies face as monetary policy tightening continues to work its
way through the system.
Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer, commented, “With
escalating geopolitical tensions, major elections, and monetary
policy reaching a critical juncture, the year ahead will be
challenging for investors. 2024 will require agility to respond to
market signals and multiple factors within the macroeconomic
environment. While pockets of opportunity can be found in equities,
we consider that fixed income offers better opportunity given
current rates and our expected path of growth and future
rates.”
US navigates a “soft” but fragile landing
“Over the past year, global economies have exhibited surprising
resilience in the face of the sharpest tightening cycle experienced
in decades, with the US economy showing impressive strength. While
many regions could be set to benefit from a soft landing, it will
depend heavily on central banks’ policies,” said Michael Arone,
Chief Investment Strategist for the US SPDR Business.
The firm’s base case is that central banks will move more
quickly to lower policy rates than markets are anticipating,
particularly in the US. However, the firm expects any soft landing
to be fragile and subject to the strategy of central banks,
particularly the Federal Reserve. If central banks continue with
their hawkish position, this soft landing could be jeopardized.
Escalating geopolitical conflicts also present a key risk. Going
into 2024, the shifting geopolitical landscape – from uncertainty
around international and trade relations, conflicts, and the
ability of upcoming elections to reshape political rhetoric – all
warrant close monitoring and agility in portfolio positioning.
Simona Mocuta, Chief Economist, added, “A world of sub-trend
growth and ongoing disinflation will continue to pose challenges
for investors since a soft landing is likely, but is not
guaranteed.”
Bonds take center stage
With a potential significant slowdown in economic activity, and
continued disinflation, State Street Global Advisors believes fixed
income is one of the best-positioned asset classes from a
risk/reward standpoint. In particular, it considers that sovereign
fixed income – US Treasuries specifically – may be an attractive
proposition over the medium term.
“With rate hikes still filtering through the global economy, we
believe an overweight duration position in sovereign debt, namely
US Treasuries, will enable investors to price in lower rates and a
bullish steepening next year,” said Matt Nest, Global Head of
Active Fixed Income.
Within fixed income, State Street Global Advisors expects a
slowing economy and advancing credit cycle to present challenges to
corporate income and balance sheets. Moreover, it expects there
will be more rewarding entry levels for credit investors in the
coming quarters.
Be selective with equities
State Street Global Advisors expects the outlook for equities in
2024 to be challenging. While the asset class performed better than
expected in 2023, its recent strength, together with rising bond
yields, have led to a reduced equity risk premium, which the firm
believes makes equites a less attractive prospect.
Altaf Kassam, EMEA Head of Investment Strategy & Research,
commented, “A more cautious and price-conscious consumer has
negative implications for corporate earnings, so investors need to
be especially cognizant of the risks to the asset class from
elevated real interest rates, a slowing money supply, and sluggish
economic growth expected in 2024.”
For applicable portfolios managed by it, State Street Global
Advisors will therefore be adopting a selective approach to the
asset class, with a focus on large cap and quality stocks that
display resilient balance sheets, strong market positions, and are
well-positioned to capitalize on policy initiatives to boost
growth.
The US market is currently preferred by the firm in this respect
due to its sector composition and the competitive advantage of its
companies, while it believes Japan may be a bright spot given
improving corporate governance and capital efficiency, evident in
increased share buyback activity which the firm believes can be
supported by the high levels of cash on corporate balance sheets.
The firm believes Europe will, however, face headwinds due to
challenging economic conditions, as monetary tightening has
impacted the economy more quickly than the US due to a less
supportive fiscal backdrop.
Emerging markets: a nuanced approach matters
Given the global backdrop, State Street Global Advisors expects
emerging markets to remain vulnerable – but with pockets of
opportunity – notably, hard currency debt and select emerging
market equities.
The evolving backdrop of heightened volatility and uncertainty
make hard currency sovereign debt look relatively more attractive
than local, as EM spreads still offer value and, in the absence of
a US recession, have the potential to tighten further.
About State Street Global Advisors
For four decades, State Street Global Advisors has served the
world’s governments, institutions and financial advisors. With a
rigorous, risk-aware approach built on research, analysis and
market-tested experience, we build from a breadth of index and
active strategies to create cost-effective solutions. And, as
pioneers in index, ETF, and ESG investing, we are always inventing
new ways to invest. As a result, we have become the world’s
fourth-largest asset manager* with US $3.69 trillion† under our
care.
* Pensions & Investments Research Center, as of 12/31/22. †
This figure is presented as of September 30, 2023 and includes
approximately $58.13 billion USD of assets with respect to SPDR
products for which State Street Global Advisors Funds Distributors,
LLC (SSGA FD) acts solely as the marketing agent. SSGA FD and State
Street Global Advisors are affiliated. Please note all AUM is
unaudited.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231205350358/en/
Michel Chau +44 7500 682982 mchau@statestreet.com
State Street (NYSE:STT)
過去 株価チャート
から 4 2024 まで 5 2024
State Street (NYSE:STT)
過去 株価チャート
から 5 2023 まで 5 2024