This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom
2024年8月15日 - 1:00PM
NEWSBTC
On-chain data suggests the Bitcoin price found its bottom following
the recent crash around this important investor cost basis level.
Bitcoin Found Its Bottom Near Active Investor’s Cost Basis
According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, Bitcoin
formed its recent bottom near the cost basis of the “active
investors.” To understand what this level represents, two other
indicators need to be looked at first: the Realized Price and the
Liveliness. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Are “Important, But Not
The Drivers,” On-Chain Analyst Argues The Realized Price refers to
the cost basis or acquisition price of the average investor on the
BTC network. The metric determines this by going through the
transaction history of each token in circulation to find what price
it was last moved at. It then works with the assumption that this
previous transfer was the last time that the coin changed hands and
so, takes the price at its time to be its current cost basis.
Finally, it averages this value out for the entire supply,
producing a price that’s often considered to be BTC’s “fair value.”
The other indicator, the Liveliness, basically keeps track of the
spending/HODLing behavior of the investors. This metric makes use
of the concept of “coin days” to calculate its value. A coin day is
a quantity that 1 BTC is said to accumulate after staying dormant
on the blockchain for 1 day. Thus, when HODLing occurs on the
network, new coin days are “created” each day, while when spending
occurs, coin days that had been accumulated earlier are
“destroyed.” The Liveliness measures the ratio between the
cumulative sum of coin days destroyed and the cumulative sum of
coin days created over the cryptocurrency’s history. As such,
whenever the market is showing a HODLing dominant behavior, the
metric’s value tends towards the zero mark, as a low amount of coin
days are seeing destruction. Similarly, it leans towards 1 when
distribution is high. Now, the actual indicator of focus in the
current discussion is the “Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio,”
also known as the Active Investor’s Cost Basis. This indicator adds
a weightage factor to Bitcoin’s Realized price (that is, its fair
value) using the Liveliness. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales
Participate In $588 Million Selloff: Is There More To Come? With
this modification, BTC’s fair value is estimated higher when
HODLing is dominant and lower when distribution is happening. The
below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized
Price-to-Liveliness Ratio over the past decade: As displayed in the
above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio is
currently at a value of $51,300. In The recent price crash, BTC
ended up finding a bottom not too far from this mark. “The Active
Investor’s Cost-Basis can be considered as a key threshold
delineating bullish and bearish investor sentiment,” notes
Glassnode. “Since the market managed to find support near this
level speaks to a degree of underlying strength, suggesting
investors are generally still anticipating positive market momentum
in the short-to-medium-term.” BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a jump of
almost 4% during the last 24 hours, which has taken its price above
$61,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from
TradingView.com
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