OTHER FINANCIAL INFORMATION
RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS
Refer to Note 12 to the financial statements in this Form 10-Q for information pertaining to transactions with related parties.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
There have been no material changes to our critical accounting policies in the first nine months of 2017. Certain of these policies, such as long-lived asset impairment,
derivative instruments, provisions and contingencies for asset retirement, environmental and other obligations, and capitalization and depreciation of property, plant and equipment, involve critical accounting estimates because they require us to
make subjective or complex judgments about matters that are inherently uncertain and because of the likelihood that materially different amounts could be reported under different conditions or using different assumptions, particularly in the current
market environment. We expect to perform an assessment of certain aspects of our operations in the fourth quarter of 2017, the outcome of which could result in us not being able to recover all or a portion of our investment in certain assets
disclosed in Notes 13 and 19 of our 2016 AIR. See page 35 of this Form 10-Q for a discussion of an impairment of specialized phosphate assets. Impairment sensitivities relating to cash-generating units in our phosphate segment are described on
page 89 of our 2016 AIR.
We have discussed the development, selection and application of our key accounting policies, and the critical accounting estimates and
assumptions they involve, with the audit committee of the Board, and the committee reviewed the disclosures described in this Form 10-Q.
RECENT ACCOUNTING CHANGES
Refer to Note 1 to the financial statements in this
Form 10-Q for information on issued accounting pronouncements that will be effective in future periods and were effective in 2017. Information on the implementation of IFRS 15, Revenue From Contracts With
Customers and IFRS 16, Leases are described on page 89 of our 2016 AIR.
OUTLOOK
POTASH MARKET OUTLOOK
We continue to see strong customer engagement in all key potash
markets and expect robust demand to continue into 2018. We have maintained our anticipated global shipment range for 2017 at 62-65 million tonnes and, with Canpotex now fully committed for the remainder of the year, we expect this years demand
to eclipse the previous record.
In North America, demand continues to be robust as growers address nutrient needs and capitalize on strong affordability.
We expect total shipments to this market to approach the upper end of our 9.3-9.8 million tonnes range.
With its substantial agronomic need and favorable crop
economics, we anticipate deliveries to Latin America will remain on pace to surpass those of 2016, with our full-year shipment total unchanged at 12.0-12.5 million tonnes.
In China, we expect nutrient affordability will continue to drive strong consumption. We maintain our 2017 shipment estimate in the range of 15.5-16.5 million tonnes, a
potential record for this market.
We continue to see an improving demand environment in India, supported by significant agronomic need, higher minimum support prices
and a favorable monsoon. We now expect deliveries for 2017 near the upper end of our guidance range of 4.0-4.5 million tonnes, an increase from 2016 levels.
In Other Asian markets, we expect supportive palm oil prices and improved moisture conditions will support demand for the remainder of the year and are maintaining our
estimated shipment range of 9.0-9.5 million tonnes for the full year, above the 2016 total.
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
With greater clarity on potash markets through the balance of the year, we have narrowed our guidance range for potash sales volumes, to 9.1-9.3 million tonnes, and for
gross margin, to $750-$800 million.
In nitrogen, we expect markets to remain volatile in the fourth quarter and anticipate full-year gross margin will be
significantly weaker than in 2016. In phosphate, we expect challenging market fundamentals will continue to weigh on our realizations. With these factors in mind, and taking into consideration the third-quarter phosphate impairment charge, we have
lowered our combined nitrogen and phosphate gross margin range and now estimate $140-$190 million in 2017, trailing last years combined total.
We now
anticipate our effective income tax rate to be in a negative range of 2-4 percent, primarily due to discrete tax adjustments.
We have lowered the upper end of our
estimates for provincial mining and other taxes and now expect a range of 19-21 percent of potash gross margin for 2017. Further, we have lowered our range for selling and administrative expenses to $215-$225 million and increased our range for
finance costs to $230-$240 million.