Bitcoin Set To Gain If Trump Wins, JPMorgan Cites ‘Debasement Trade’ As Key Factor
2024年11月1日 - 1:00PM
NEWSBTC
According to JPMorgan analysts, a win for the Republican US
presidential candidate Donald Trump could further fuel Bitcoin
(BTC) price momentum. Retail Investors Turn To Bitcoin For
‘Debasement Trade’ In a recent client note, analysts at
JPMorgan suggested that a Trump win might provide ‘additional
upside’ for both BTC and gold, as retail investors increasingly
view Bitcoin as a ‘debasement trade.’ Related Reading: Bitcoin
Makes ATH Against Euro Due To Change In Dollar Strength, Details
Inside In simple terms, a debasement trade is a strategy to protect
purchasing power against the steady erosion of fiat currencies due
to extensive money printing. Notably, the M2 money supply – a
measure of total money in circulation – sharply rose during the
coronavirus pandemic. This surplus in money supply led to
heightened inflation, forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to
raise interest rates to contain it. By purchasing BTC, retail
investors aim to maintain their money’s value, hoping Bitcoin will
act as a hedge against currency depreciation. The JPMorgan note
states: Retail investors appear to be embracing the ‘debasement
trade’ in an even stronger manner by buying bitcoin and gold ETFs.
The retail impulse is also seen in meme and AI tokens the market
cap of which has outperformed. Data from SoSoValue shows that
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) have attracted a whopping $1.3
billion in inflows over the past two days alone. As of October 30,
the cumulative net inflow to US-based spot BTC ETFs is $24.18
billion. October’s total ETF inflows alone amount to $4.4 billion,
marking it the third-highest month for BTC ETF inflows since their
launch earlier this year. However, institutional investors appear
to have slowed down on BTC futures activity recently, with analysts
noting that Bitcoin futures have entered overbought territory,
potentially introducing vulnerability for BTC’s near-term outlook.
The client note highlights that credit and prediction markets lean
toward a Trump win, unlike equities, foreign exchange (FX), and
rates markets. The analysts conclude: Overall, to the extent a
Trump win inspires retail investors to not only buy risk assets but
to also further embrace the ‘debasement trade’, there could be
additional upside for bitcoin and gold prices in a Trump win
scenario. Where Is BTC Headed? Analysts Share Their Outlook Bitcoin
is trading within 2% of reaching a new all-time high (ATH), driving
renewed optimism among crypto analysts. Related Reading: Bitcoin
Retail Demand Rises 13% In 1 Month: Time For Q4 2024 Rally? For
instance, crypto analyst Timothy Peterson recently posited that BTC
could surge to as high as $100,000 by February 2025. Meanwhile,
crypto options trading data indicates that traders remain confident
BTC will hit $80,000 by the end of November 2024, regardless of the
election outcome. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, however, has urged
caution, advising BTC bulls that a daily close above $76,000 is
critical for confirming a true breakout. At the time of writing,
BTC is trading at $71,798, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured
image from Unsplash, Charts from FRED and Tradingview.com
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