Matrixport Co-Founder Says Crypto Market Mirrors Early June: What This Means
2024年7月3日 - 2:00AM
NEWSBTC
In a recent commentary on X, Daniel Yan, co-founder of Matrixport
and CIO at Kryptanium Capital, offered a detailed comparison
between the current crypto market dynamics and those observed in
early June. His insights are especially relevant as the market
approaches several key economic releases that could significantly
influence the trajectory of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin
(BTC) and Solana (SOL). History Repeating For The Crypto Market?
Yan’s analysis began with an overview of the current market
recovery, noting that both BTC and SOL are “grinding at key
technical levels nicely now,” suggesting a potential setup for a
breakout similar to the situation in early June. During that
period, Bitcoin was challenging a major resistance level at
$71,500, influenced by positive Personal Consumption Expenditures
(PCE) data and weaker-than-expected ADP employment change numbers,
which fueled optimism about a potentially dovish stance from the
Federal Reserve. Related Reading: Circle Awarded Europe’s First
Stablecoin License Under New MiCA Crypto Rules However, Yan drew
attention to the volatility that followed, when a stronger than
expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reversed the bullish
sentiment, causing Bitcoin to plummet from highs of $72,000 to
around $58,000 within two weeks. He highlighted this pattern to
caution investors about the potential for similar market reactions
in the current context. Looking forward, Yan expressed a generally
bullish outlook for Q3 2023, citing improving liquidity conditions
and the resolution of the Mt. Gox case, which has loomed over the
market for years. Yet, he remains wary of the short-term impacts of
the upcoming NFP release, scheduled for this Friday. “I’m getting
cautious going into the NFP Friday – a similar first half of the
pattern may happen,” he warned. Yan also pointed to the CPI release
as the next crucial data point, with the Cleveland Fed providing
modest estimates for June but less favorable projections for July.
He emphasized the impact of summer energy prices on inflation
metrics, noting that rising crude oil and gas prices since early
June are likely to influence both headline CPI and PCE directly,
and core inflation numbers indirectly. “A 0.3% MoM Core CPI
expectation is already bad, imagine it realizes worse,” he
remarked, underscoring the potential for these figures to exceed
expectations to the upside, further complicating the Fed’s
inflation management efforts. Related Reading: Buy Crypto Now:
Lekker Capital CIO Spotlights Prime Opportunity The immediate focus
for Yan and many in the crypto community is Federal Reserve
Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech tonight at the European Central
Bank. His comments are highly anticipated for hints on how the Fed
views the current macroeconomic conditions and its potential policy
actions in the near term. “Let’s see what he thinks of the current
macro situations,” Yan stated, indicating the significant
market-moving potential of Powell’s address. Bitcoin Breakout Needs
Confirmation Matrixport released a “Chart of the Day” featuring
Bitcoin’s price movements from June 2 to July 1, highlighting the
cryptocurrency’s recent break from a short-term downtrend. After
signaling a bottom on June 25 on their Matrixport Greed & Fear
index—a tool often used to predict potential reversals—Bitcoin
showed signs of an oversold condition, which typically precedes a
price recovery. Indeed, Bitcoin’s price began to rebound tactically
over the weekend, overcoming some of the immediate technical
hurdles. While the market appears to be setting up for a potential
rally, Yan’s analysis and the impending economic updates suggest
that investors should brace for possible fluctuations. As these
events unfold, the crypto market’s response to economic indicators
and central bank communications will be pivotal in shaping its
short-term direction. At press time, BTC traded at $62,802.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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