India Inflation Eases, Industrial Production Growth Beats Expectations
2019年2月12日 - 5:54PM
RTTF2
India's consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed in January,
mainly due to a fall in food prices, while industrial production
grew at a faster-than-expected pace at the end of last year.
The consumer price index rose 2.05 percent year-on-year
following a 2.11 percent climb in December, which was revised from
2.19 percent, figures from the Central Statistics Office showed on
Tuesday.
Economists had expected 2.54 percent inflation. In January 2018,
inflation was 5.07 percent.
Food inflation remained in negative territory in January, at
-2.17 percent versus -2.65 percent in December.
Vegetable prices tumbled 13.32 percent and prices of fruits
decreased 4.18 percent. Egg prices fell 2.44 and prices of pulses
and products declined 5.50 percent.
Core inflation remained high, above 5 percent in January.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut the key
interest rate and shifted its policy stance to "neutral" from
"calibrated tightening."
"We maintain our view that that elevated core inflation is a
reflection of the recent strength of the economy, and expect it to
remain high as long as the economy is growing fast," Capital
Economics economist Shilan Shah said.
"With little spare capacity remaining in the economy, looser
monetary policy runs the risk of triggering a sharp inflation
rebound," Shah added.
The RBI lowered the path of CPI inflation to 2.8 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2018-19, 3.2-3.4 percent in the first half of
2019-20 and 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019-20, with risks
broadly balanced around the central trajectory.
The outlook for food inflation appears particularly benign and
the unusual pick-up in the prices of health and education could be
a one-off phenomenon, the bank said. The oil price outlook
continues to be hazy, the RBI added.
Separate data from the statistical office on Tuesday showed that
industrial production rose 2.4 percent year-on-year in December,
which was faster than the 1.5 percent gain economists had
forecast.
Manufacturing output grew 2.7 percent and electricity generation
rose 4.4 percent. In contrast, mining production decreased 1
percent.
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