- U.S. home prices posted a 4.7% year-over-year gain in June,
with only one state posting double-digit gains.
- By summer 2025, prices are predicted to slow to 2.3% as home
price growth continues to slow
- In June, home prices were up only 0.3% from the month before,
half the rate of seasonal increase seen in June in the years prior
to the pandemic
- Miami once again usurped San Diego in June for the metro with
the greatest price growth.
CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and
data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home
Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2024.
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the full release here:
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Figure 1: HPI & HPI Forecast % Change
YoY (Graphic: Business Wire)
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down, reaching 4.7%
in June, falling further from the previous month’s 4.9% in what
will likely be a continual slide throughout the next year. Although
June marked the 149th consecutive month of annual growth, the rate
of growth is expected to decrease by more than half of its current
rate, with prices expected to grow by only 2.3% on a year-over-year
basis next summer.
Month over month, home prices rose just 0.3% from May to June.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that prices will repeat that
pattern, rising by 0.3% again from June 2024 to July 2024. In the
years prior to pandemic, monthly gains from May to July generally
saw stronger increases. The cooling of monthly gains during the
spring home-buying season reflects the impact of high mortgage
rates on home buyers’ budgets and constraint on affordability.
While no states posted annual home price declines in June, only
one – South Dakota – posted double-digit growth, coming in at 10%.
Behind South Dakota, the other states with the highest increases
year over year were New Jersey (9.3%), Rhode Island (9.2%),
Connecticut (8.5%), and New Hampshire (8.2%).
Home prices in the 10 select large U.S. metros from June 2023 to
June 2024 revealed that Miami posted the highest gain at 10% year
over year. San Diego and Las Vegas tied for second at 7.5%, with
Chicago coming in third at 7.2%.
The continued decline in the pace of appreciation can be linked
to elevated mortgage rates. Although the Federal Reserve Board is
anticipated to cut rates in September, high interest rates continue
to affect affordability, and several markets in the South continue
to see inventory increases that are pulling prices below last
year’s numbers.
Housing market activity essentially froze at the end of the
spring homebuying season as high mortgage rates continued to
compress affordability and dissuade potential homebuyers, said Dr.
Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The 0.3% gain in prices
from the month before was less than half the increase seen between
May and June prior to the pandemic, when the gains averaged 0.8%.
In addition, cooling home prices continued to spread across more
markets, and nine states reported a monthly decline, up from three
states last month. The April surge in mortgage rates notably
weighed on consumer sentiment, and consumers increasingly chose to
respond to the anticipation of a lower mortgage rate environment
later this year.”
Top Takeaways:
- U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales)
increased by 4.7% year over year in June 2024 compared with June
2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.3%
compared with May 2024.
- CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains
relaxing to 2.3% in June 2025.
- Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of
the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in June, at 10%. San Diego
and Las Vegas came in second at 7.5%.
- Among states, South Dakota ranked first for annual appreciation
in June (up by 10%), followed by New Jersey (9.3%) and Rhode Island
(9.2%), No state recorded a year-over-year home price loss.
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring July 2024 data,
is scheduled to be issued on September 3, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities
real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of
repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an
average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an
early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the
Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive
set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached
and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully
revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning
points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple
market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs.
non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is
available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including
non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based
on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income
per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers —
Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and
Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion
to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios
to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and
severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP
Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical
confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the
index.
About Market Risk Indicators
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics
solution that provides monthly updates on the overall health of
housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists
combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing
data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in
392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a
multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score
(from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a
>10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the
score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
About the Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market
Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and
identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued.
These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values,
which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets
are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed
their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where
the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than
10%.
Source: CoreLogic
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For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact
Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries,
visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data
provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and
innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by
putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and
technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered
experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses
and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more
information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
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Media Contact: Robin Wachner newsmedia@corelogic.com
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