LONDON, July 5, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- New forecasts from Omdia predict a continuous rise
in global retail-music sales, with growth this year marking the
tenth consecutive annual increase. By the end of the forecast
period, the number of years of growth will equal the total of
annual declines seen in the early 2000s. Global sales are expected
to reach $43.9bn by the end of 2024,
surpass the $50bn mark in 2027, and
reach $53.4bn by 2028. Omdia's
figures include consumer spending on physical and digital formats
and services as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance
rights, and synchronization. Subscriptions, including platforms
like Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music are projected to drive
much of this growth increasing 10.4% this year, to $26.8bn from $24.3bn in 2023. Subscription revenue is expected
to exceed $34.4bn by 2028 with a
forecasted CAGR of 7.2% over the period.
Advertising is set to grow faster than physical sales over the
next five years (5.7% CAGR versus 2%), but physical sales will
remain the second biggest recorded-music revenue source. Although
growth is forecast for the next five years, the rate of annual
rises will slow, to just 0.2% in 2028 when physical sales will be
worth $7.3bn. Combined audio and
video advertising will rise 8.1% this year to $5.3bn from $4.9bn
in 2023, reaching $6.5bn by 2028.
Omdia is expecting China's
ascent in the global rankings over the next five years driven by a
significantly higher CAGR compared to Europe's two leading markets: the UK and
Germany. China is expected to surpass Germany by 2026 and the UK by 2027. Although
Japan will remain Asia's leader and the world's second largest
recorded-music market by the end of 2028, it is projected to be
overtaken by China, as early as
2029. Omdia forecasts that China's
retail sales will go beyond $2bn this
year, increasing by 22.1%, to $2.4bn
from $1.97bn in 2023. Sales are
expected to reach $3bn in 2026 and
$4bn in 2028.
"Music companies should be buoyed with the latest figures from
Omdia numbers" according to Simon
Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. "Global retail
sales will have risen for 14 consecutive years by the end of 2028.
Each year will mark a new record with previously piracy-affected
countries now contributing to recorded-music revenue. China is the one to watch as sales in the
country are expected to more than double in just five
years," Dyson added.
ABOUT OMDIA:
Omdia, part of Informa Tech, is a technology research and
advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets combined with
our actionable insights empower organizations to make smart growth
decisions.
Fasiha Khan
Fasiha.khan@omdia.com
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SOURCE Omdia