Ardea Resources Ltd (PK) (ARRRF) 銘柄情報

It's funny, about 4 months ago I was up this stock several hundred grand. I had bought a ton, and pushed it up from 80 cents, where I started buying all the way up to 1.60 u.s., something like that, and like a fool, i did not sell. I ended up, in just a matter of a week or so, selling out almost 1 million shares at an average price of around 1.24 u.s., and ended up with a net loss of around 30 grand, probably more, as I hate to look at my loses, but that is close...........I knew it was so very dicey, a popcorn stock with a story, as many have..........And now we have the report that came out, and it turns out, the project itself is very dicey, which puts the company and its stock price way WAY DOWN UNDER...where the property is.
So the takeaway here for smart investors is this: WHEN NOT ONE BUT TWO MAJORS PASS ON A PROPERTY, AND SIMPLY GET RID OF IT, never ever ever EVER consider it as a suitable investment. Those companies have top tier science people and engineers and they know what they are doing, and if you think you know more, kindly send your resume to these 2 companies, see if your credentials stack up with their own experts, that you think were so wrong, who said the property was not worth it at all to go farther with, and to dump it, to a popcorn start up, which is what arrrf is.

classic buy on the rumor - or in this case expectation of a favorable pre-fease result - and sell on the late march news.
now the question is whether and when to get back in.
when is the next catalyst.
will a buyer with deep pockets and/or favorable debt capacity and/or highly valued stock step up and acquire ardea.
mkt cap approx A$110mm - give or take - depending on what you're using for f/d shares, down from peak A$265mm.
seems pretty inexpensive given the pea #'s.
https://ardearesources.com.au/

Ardea Delivers Outstanding Pre-Feasibility Study for the Goongarrie Nickel Cobalt Project with Significant Expansion Potential
Study into the production of high quality nickel and cobalt sulphates has confirmed the economic viability of this scalable, multi-decade production opportunity in Western Australia.

1.0 Mtpa base case over an initial 25-year mine life is readily capable of expansion to reflect the orebody’s larger production potential.
95.5 % cobalt recovery and 94.5 % nickel recovery (life of mine).
Strong financials for both the base 1.0 Mtpa and 1.5 Mtpa cases.
Case Pre-tax NPV8 Post-tax NPV8 IRR Payback

1.0 Mtpa A$1.43 billion A$1.04 billion 25 % 5.3 years

1.5 Mtpa A$1.93 billion A$1.40 billion 25 % 5.6 years

1.0 Mtpa base case production.
5,500 tpa of cobalt sulphate (1,180 tpa contained cobalt).
41,500 tpa of nickel sulphate (9,300 tpa contained nickel).
Capital cost of A$599 million including A$77 million contingency.
Competitive industry C1 cash cost of US$0.42/lb nickel metal (after cobalt credits).
Strong interest from potential EPC and offtake partners.
Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) programs underway.
Upside options being assessed, including higher throughput/shorter autoclave residence time, multiple parallel trains, mineralised neutraliser optimisation, and scandium production.
Goongarrie reserve is less than 5 % of the total Kalgoorlie Nickel Project (KNP) resource, confirming the project’s potential scalability.

Resource Update at KNP Cobalt Zone delivers over 100 million tonnes
Significant increase in resource defined in preparation for the PreFeasibility Study mining schedule

An updated KNP Cobalt Zone resource has increased markedly to 108.3Mt at 0.10% cobalt and 0.79% nickel
Includes over 108,000 tonnes of contained cobalt metal and over 856,000 tonnes of nickel metal
Increased tonnages are from Goongarrie area:
Reflects revenue-driven cobalt and nickel focus for mining schedules defined for the PFS on the Goongarrie Nickel Cobalt Project with increased inclusion of nickel blocks
Reported resources are captured within conceptual PFS pit shells
Shallow, lateritic, cobalt-nickel mineralisation is up to 16 km long and 1 km wide.
PFS finalisation progressing
Finalisation of the PFS is progressing and the Company looks forward to reporting to shareholders once this process is complete.

Just took a small position in this stock.

Had a large gain on one of my Lithium stocks, so I took that profit and put it here for exposure to Cobalt & Nickle.

Would have liked to get in cheaper, but I still like the chart - nice cup base.

My nose just got up for a bit of air....

Finally, a little upside. Only $8.91 to go to that $10 target. I need about another 25c to get my neck above the water line.

I'll drink to that - $10 and beyond....

Ha, thanks. See you at the finish line -- $10?

You may be 'on your own', but you're not alone. Here because of Casey Report recommendation for cobalt, some DD (company website has a lot of info), and tootalljones

I appreciate I am on my own here. Hey, only 12k. I might get lucky. Well, my wife is in CA today, so I probably won’t get “lucky.’

I have sold most of Ardea. I have a habit of jumping into a story and then the more I learn, the more I get queasy. This has cost me as sometimes I have sold out, and the stock went up, and sometimes it went down. Bad investing, poor DD on my part.

One of the few bright spots on a dismal day. Staying for now. I knowit’s a risky play.

yep. I have cut down here due to chart, will rebuy lower much back. if that happens Phoucked up here truth be told, o well. Hope U are making bundles Tre. ttj

Gap closing a bit.

I dunno. nutty;. looking at the gap below. yikes

some 245,000 shares 'sold' at 1.16 in about 20 min but bid remained at 1.16 throughout.....

BTW, Ardea was recommended as an 'interesting cobalt speculation' by Casey Research in August and they just reiterated it as a buy in their November letter.

I just moved the needle from 1.16 to 1.17. Enjoy.

I tink this is the bottom. last night the australian market was firming up nicely. From here on out, the next 6 months should be up, my 2c
Cobalt looks very good, surging basically..
just goog cobalt price
cteqf showing the path forward today

someone is dumping some serious shares today. 120k on the ask. I might buy when it goes back under a dollar

The Squash says 3Kt operation.
.....ARL is simply the monster of all cobalt plays - our high grade zone alone is a beast and on the high grade zone alone we are undervalued next to peers. 81kt of cobalt and more to come - we will have enough for 3kt/cobalt/pa IMO just from the high grade.

The retail market has not grasped this from what I can tell reading across HC, but the institutions should soon, and they will be looking for big, long term positions as we go from PFS to DFS and this story unfolds......

Nov 17, 2017 7:49 AM
I love seeing these 3 headlines among the first I see on my stock news service this morning: *
Reuters details that Volkswagen (VLKAY) is considering a new EUR 70 bln spending plan. .
Reuters discusses that Daimler (DDAIF) plans to invest over $750 mln in electric cars (TSLA, KNDI).
Economic Times discusses that Toyota (TM) plans to introduce electric car models in India in 2020. Economic Times Report.
Mercedes Has the Horsepower for Tesla Battle
https://bloom.bg/2AXry0K
Daimler fans shouldn't be too downcast.

they are all charging into the EV battery market.
for instance:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-17/vw-is-said-to-budget-85-billion-for-five-year-investment-plan

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/gm-forecasts-1-million-electric-car-sales-by-2026-as-costs-drop

By Stock - Largest cobalt resource
{excellent poster below on Hot Copper an aussie, Squash, fyi}

16/11/17
Time:
19:57:52
Post #:
28868618
Folks just here for the record, the market is asleep on the question of ARL v AUZ deposits.

ARL has over 80kt contained cobalt avg grade .13% in the KNP high grade zone... so far.
Only two of four deposits re-modelled so there is more to come. See https://www.ardearesources.com.au/downloads/announcements/arl_2017062801.pdf

How much does AUZ have at average grade above .1%? About 15-20kt in Sconi - that is a full 4x smaller than ARL high grade zone.

How much does Sconi have with avg grade of 0.06% (half the ARL grade)? 54kt in Sconi. Still well short of ARL contained cobalt at less than half the grade - it is all here - http://www.metallicaminerals.com.au...16/09/JORC-2013-Sc-Co-Ni-Resource-Upgrade.pdf

Yet AUZ investor presentations imply an ARL feed grade will be 0.07% and AUZ of .11%. Go figure...

AUZ also calls Sconi a 89Mt deposit. Well, it is, if you use a low nickel cut off grade of 0.07%.

The same low Nickel cut off grade for ARL gives the full 750Mt+ monster deposit. But putting that side by side in an investor presentation would not look so hot.

don't forget to read the references folks. All IMO. DYOR and all that jazz.

Disclosure ARL now my biggest small cap holding by some margin

Get this ridiculous mispricing, as of now this moment, these two comparators in Australia, (their currency which is a little above u.s.$):

ARL
ARDEA RESOURCES LIMITED Mkt cap $140.4M
(20 min delayed) $1.65 5.17%
OPEN
$1.76
$1.65 11935
(LAST 12:54) $1.664.87%

VS.

CLQ
CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS LIMITEDMkt cap $927.7M
(20 min delayed) $1.53 4.69%
OPEN
$1.55

$1.53 9444 10
(LAST 13:00) $1.524.60%
_____________________________________
I view these two companies to have equivalent resources, and while clean has a higher grade of deposit, their entire one to Ardea's MASSIVE entire one, the ARDEA CORE Zone which is in part the object of Ardea's work, and that of its predecessor, is in fact significantly higher than Clean's.
Indeed, Ardea is now enlarging that area with a huge drill program, some 40,000 meters. It has already been upgraded some, per recent news release. The over all size of the larger deposits shows Ardea's to be 4X as large. An astounding figure, So we shall see.

I cannot speak to the nickle and scandium other than to say that Ardea has a huge nickle resource, and per recent NR, obviously meaningful scandium, which it is just investigating. It could be hugely meaningful (we do not know but in their NR they are not shy about their thoughts quite obviously trying to convey something important to Mr. Market)... as they are simply reassessing the core drill receipts from the prior operator, a Major, from 6 years ago. The first target reassessment returns were outstanding. So who knows where this goes, but their nickle is very real and substantial and very valuable to say the least.

All in all, it is my view that these two should be valued about equal, so far, and Clean is a year ahead of them, but that should not account for this ridiculous disparity. Which it is.

Too, remember time is on Ardea's side. The higher the price of cobalt goes, and it will, the more of the massive deposit that they have, can be reclaimed and become economic. If they can add even 25%, due to nothing other than the rise of cobalt, this would be a tremendous motherlode windfall. Think 25% MORE of their overall deposit becoming economic, which it will.

We shall see but at 50 dollar cobalt, it ALL BECOMES ECONOMIC, or most of it, I would speculate, given that cobalt is in shortage about now, and the coming cobalt crunch is guaranteed, which is why the metal is rising........AND THEY HAVE THE LARGEST DEPOSIT IN THE WORLD, OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, BY FAR.

Conclusion: Mr.Market will have every opportunity over the next several years to correct this current market cap mispricing, and the fact is, both will go up, as they are wonderful investments.

Key takeaway from this article: "Demand for cobalt in electric vehicle batteries is expected to grow fourfold by 2020, and eleven-fold by 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie." THE COBALT UNDERSUPPLY WILL MAKE THE MINERS EXPLODE. This will ramp up prices and make our deposit hugely valuable, far more than the company has projected to date.

"October 16, 2017, London, the financial times"
https://www.ft.com/content/ebf70f78-b014-11e7-aab9-abaa44b1e130

Electric Vehicles
Cobalt stand-off key to future of electric vehicles

Tussle between cobalt producers and Volkswagen highlights a key battle

A handful of cobalt nuggets at a mine in Zambia. Car companies are trying to sew up sources of the metal, a key component in electric car batteries © FT montage; Bloomberg

OCTOBER 16, 2017 Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume
Volkswagen’s attempt to secure at least five years’ supply of cobalt highlights the challenge facing the world’s biggest carmakers as they attempt to secure the materials needed for their push into electric vehicles.

Last month’s tender comes as other carmakers such as BMW and Tesla Motors also try to lock-in stocks of the metal. That could test to breaking point a niche market that is heavily dependent on a handful of mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the most impoverished and politically volatile countries in Africa.

Demand for cobalt in electric vehicle batteries is expected to grow fourfold by 2020, and eleven-fold by 2025, according to Wood Mackenzie. If supply cannot be nailed down, that could threaten carmakers’ aggressive plans for launches of new EV models. At the Frankfurt auto show this year VW pledged to spend €70bn to electrify 300 car models by 2030.

“The question some are now asking is: could a lack of cobalt impact the EV revolution? Be it through surging prices slowing the battery cost reduction trend, or a physical shortage of metal impacting automotive output,” says Gavin Montgomery, director of metals market at Wood Mackenzie. "While it may sound alarmist, it is by no means impossible.”

Cobalt is critical for the current generation of electric vehicle batteries, used by Tesla, Nissan and Chevrolet. But over the past year it has jumped more than 80 per cent in price, more than any other battery metal, just as carmakers look to reduce costs to make electric vehicles competitive with the internal combustion engine.


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Last month VW sought to sign a long-term offtake agreement that would guarantee fixed pricing of cobalt for a minium of five years. Unsurprisingly, miners are reluctant to sign long-term supply deals in a rising price environment with a single customer.

Nick French, a veteran cobalt trader, says: “You might argue how far it will go up and about substitute technology in the long term, but in the immediate to medium term, the direction appears to be up and nobody is going to have difficulty selling what they have in the next few years.”

Carmakers will probably have to strike deals for a set amount of cobalt volume at floating prices. Indeed, VW is open to discussing “potential forms of co-operation,” from long-term offtake agreements to “further strategic models”, according to a copy of its tender document seen by the Financial Times.

Complicating issues is the fact that future cobalt supply is dependent on a handful of mining companies including Glencore, China Molybdenum, and Eurasian Resources Group, which are all operating in the DRC.


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Glencore, which alone accounts for about a quarter of the cobalt market, is set to increase production at its Katanga mine in the DRC, which will reopen next year after an upgrade. That will add roughly 6,000 tonnes of supply to a refined market of 97,000 tonnes.

ERG, which was formed out of miner ENRC, is also working on a project in the DRC that will bring 14,000 tonnes of cobalt to the market by the end of 2018, which it estimates is enough to build up to 1.5m electric vehicles.

“There is some uncertainty around this growth as both projects are in the DRC which is politically unstable and has challenges with power disruptions and infrastructure,” according to analysts at UBS.

The political situation in the country is also fraught with the country’s president refusing to step down last year and pushing back elections until April 2018.

Recommended

VW fails to secure long-term cobalt supply for electric vehicles
Latest commodities data from the FT
Get the best of the FT’s markets coverage on WhatsApp
Miners will be privately hoping that cobalt prices do not go too much higher, however, for fear of killing off electric vehicle demand. In 2010 a rapid price rise in rare earths, which are used in a range of technology applications, led companies to search for substitute raw materials.

Cobalt is trading at about $30 a pound. That could rise to between $40 to $45 a pound, but any higher could incentivise the development of new battery technology and chemistries, according to Anthony Milewski, the chief executive of Cobalt 27, a Canadian-listed company that has stockpiled more than 2,000 tonnes of cobalt.

UK chemicals company Johnson Matthey claims to have developed a low cobalt battery electrode that offers a cost advantage through the “efficient thrifting of cobalt” without sacrificing power. Carmakers have also said they are shifting to higher nickel batteries that use less cobalt over the next decade

“The tightness in the cobalt market today is accelerating the search efforts to find a substitute,” says Adam Collins, analyst at Liberum.

But Mr Milewski thinks common sense will ultimately prevail and producers will look to work with the big carmakers to make sure EV’s achieve widespread consumer adoption. “Ultimately people are going to be sensible and try to do deals on supply,” he says.

a huge tsunami...https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-cobalt-evs-exclusive/exclusive-vw-moves-to-secure-cobalt-supplies-in-shift-to-electric-cars-idUSKCN1BX1RE

limitless demand for "clean" cobalt from secure sourcing.
https://qz.com/1087495/cobalt-miners-are-leaving-dr-congo-for-canada-and-europe-to-meet-demand/

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4118944-ev-company-news-month-october-2017

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-autos-emissions/eu-plans-credits-fines-to-boost-low-emission-car-production-idUSKBN1D8183
Cobalt is the critical requirement, AND there is utterly no way current cobalt production can keep up.
Prices must and will continue to rise.

chris1983 said: ?
Thanks for highlighting those drill results at Goongarrie, I didn't not them previously but what monster intercepts they are of .1 Cobalt or greater!

U are a walking breathing diversified fund of very special companies. lol

viper if you can please tell JB about this one...he is great and you are making all the right moves to become rich and famous. Specially famous which will entitle you to the sleaszes of hollywood..

I like your style and playing along. Still holding ivpaf and cteqf with smaller positions in nsrpf and pvg. I dont need to cash out for 10-15 years and trying to build. Between you, JB, and a few others i've been fairly lucky to let the winners run and cut loses asap. took a position in NAK today and entered ARRRF a little late.

Viper, I am so reminded of my late 1990s, as I posted earlier. Things were a little crazy. Stocks were going so nutty higher, and that was 20 years ago. I have other stocks I am crazy about now, in this sector, but ARDEA is such an obscene undervaluation, I cannot buy them.....None offer the next 90 day reward in share price appreciation, that Ardea does,.....that is the way it was in the internet MANIA.....as the mania went bonkers, ...I was like, why should I leave and sell my dell computer stock, or my microsoft, they are going up like 35% per year, like clockwork, splitting ever 2 years, give or take?....and the answer for people like me at that time was, HEY BUBB, HARDWARE STOCKS ARE FUN AND ALL, BUT WE HAVE INVENTED THIS THING CALLED THE INTERNET.......
and so i had to move my money, just had to do it, being perceptive, trying to anticipate the World and Its Movements and really, the War of the World, to AOL and then Yahoo and dozens of others, all of which were bought out, in the frenzy, and then the next leg began, within two years...AS the wave moved from Consumer internet to Business to Business ("B to B') internet stocks, and they simply went banannas, ...

thanks again Viper, and I do have a next pick. I am just standing on the backs of giants with these, real studs, one a billionaire, but it is hard for me to rec anything now except this badboy. Ardea.

Imho, at some point this will retrace a tad, but not because of the valuation discrepancy WHICH STILL EXISTS AS OF THIS MOMENT AND MUST BE CURED, and the only way this can be is for this stock to ascend.....where the retracement is, who knows, 2 bucks, 3 bucks?.....it is human nature and the mysteries of Mr. Market that a stock like this will temporarily retrace, letting the herd out, those who have made good serious money and want to get off the train, for whatever reasons....AND ONCE THAT MONEY DROPS OFF, THE TRAIN WILL ACCELERATE...IT WILL RUN OVER THEM....LOL

Viper thank you, most sincerely! Hoping so much that YOU YOURSELF are getting in. It is hard to press the buy button I realize given the run but this is so friggin early. Sometimes you gotta SIMPLY BE SPONTANEOUS.

Yesterday I bought another who knows how much, like 45K shares.....so I am walking the walk. (I won't be buying at 10 bucks in 2 years, lol)......It is passing strange about this stock, how it ever got to be fifty cents, which it was several months ago, and I have tried to explain it in some of my earlier posts on this thread, i.e. how it ever came to be so low. But that doesn't matter. The only friggin thing that matters is our value, relative to CTEQ's, and the dynamics of the EV and coming cobalt panics......

Filled Buy 3950 ARRRF Limit 1.52 -- -- 14:18:59 11/09/17


Filled Buy 8050 ARRRF Limit 1.52
Filled Buy 4000 ARRRF Limit 1.52 -- -- 12:03:19 11/09/17
Filled Buy 9900 ARRRF Limit 1.52 -- -- 11:45:55 11/09/17
Filled Buy 3700 ARRRF Limit 1.50 -- -- 10:21:36 11/09/17
Filled Buy 10000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:46:19 11/09/17



Filled Buy 5000 ARRRF Limit 1.53 -- -- 09:44:39 11/09/17



Canceled Buy 5000 ARRRF Limit 1.50 -- 11/09/17 09:44:29 11/09/17


Filled Buy 2000 ARRRF Limit 1.48
Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.52 -- -- 09:38:10 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:15 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:16 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:17 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:17 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:17 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:18 11/09/17


Filled Buy 500 ARRRF Limit 1.54 -- -- 09:38:18 11/09/17


Filled Buy 1000 ARRRF Limit 1.54

ETCETERA ETCETERA.....LOL

you've outdone yourself. we'll be expecting nothing less on the next pick. lol great job

As of this moment, with cteqf down 4 cents to 1.26 (down 3%) and arrrf up 4 cents (in u.s. currency) up 4.%, when one looks at these two sister stocks, it is still clear that arrrf is still less than 25% of cteqf's market cap. This situation is totally ridiculous and the market is in the process of adjusting it. I do not think cteqf will come down. If fact I think it will go up, but in no ways like arrrf will do, which must rocket higher, as the market discovers it.

cteqf $1.25[ ] $1.26 $1.26 -0.04 -3.08%
arrrf $1.58[ ] $1.59 $1.58 0.0623 4.1% [t][/t]

one shareholder's take on scandium PR last night:
schmunzel75712 posts.
10/11/1708:57:18Post #: 28670052
What another genious strike Matt Painter!!!!
Re-assaying old pulp samples for scandium plus another 68 minerals. He truely looks after us shareholders by unlocking incredible value left; right and centre. ARL is more than a 10 trick pony with a management like ours. They know what they are sitting on through years of work at Heron. Now it all comes to surface, literally and figuratively.
The PFS and DFS with the flow sheet for cobalt, nickel and sccandium with atmospheric heap leach will set SP on fire. Wait until BHP our South32 knocks on the door....I don.t think we will see an 'orphan' period for ARL SP during the financing of mine built. The size and quality of resource plus ethical mining and political stable lication puts a big cross hair on us. Thanks to small and tight registry (another genius move) we are fairly protected against a hostile T/O where trading 1Mil shares (1%) of a 110Mil registry bump up SP by 24%.
Awesome times ahead.
GLTA

http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/09/india-closes-down-6000-schools-because-of-air-pollution/

a double from today's close. Which will be 1.52. Remember the price is actually set for this stock on the australian exchange, sort of like Ivanhoe, where the canadians set the price and we own the little satellite called IVPAF. To follow the real action, if it is stock action, and actually a great website, it is Hot Copper, and Andrea trades down there under the symbol Arl. It is red hot down there. I would be shocked (i realize that is a large word) if this stock was not 3 bucks in a year. I think it will be far higher. I am still buying, btw, and I paid 1.52 today, another nice chunk today. I posted actually my first post there yesterday on HOt Copper, a serious content based post for our aussie friends....stock today is up 20 percent, and down there last night it closed up 22 percent. Coincidence? I don't think so but who knows....It trades very heavy down Under, so this is actually a very liquid stock

Buy more Mike, you won't regret it. Cobalt reminds me of the internet stocks I owned in the late 1990s that went crazy to the upside. I moved from Dell and Microsoft back then (computer hardware), which were going up 50% per year, to the consumer internet stocks, to AOL back then specifically, which was merely going up 100 percent per year, to Yahoo,which was going up even higher, and finally to the internet B to B stocks (business to business) as soon as they came out, which went insane. I remember one that went up like 70 points in a single day. I think Cobalt is like that. A feeding frenzy over the next 3 years.... ...read my posts here please.
delighted you are making serious coin~ ! have great day....spread the word to avxl and other investors. I would be shocked if we are up just a hundred percent in a year from now. A Congo Copper stock has been a ten fold bagger the past year, symbol: KAT.....

so kindly spread the word. As you know I am very very good at stocks. I see the world as it is, not how we want it to be, .......
"WAKE UP NEO..." Click this: sad americans must escape their delusions. Freedom a great thing.

Yo totall,
Followed your little snipit from the Avxl board the other day over to here. Took up a 7k position thus far in Arrrf. Read up on cobalt and can see its potential. Any guesses on sp a year from now? Most of my funds still tied up with the afore mentioned. Thanks for the tip.
LQmike

ps: seeing lots of snipets from smallish explorers wanting to get into the cobalt game. However, these are very young companies, many years away from proving up what appears to be a deposit, and we all know that the overwhelming vast majority (who knows, 98%?) will fail. Ours is a massive, DEVELOPED world deposit, the largest BY FAR in the developed world and one of the world's very largest, bar none. Plus, we "stole" this deposit from two majors (and Heron) which had put in over 50 million in superb drilling works. .....so while we are not as close as CTEQ, our future is much brighter, provided cobalt (and nickle) continue to rise, which they will. The economics of the EV revolution are utterly clear, say what you will.
My take is that while cteqf will continue to rise and be brilliant, it will pale over the price rise of Ardea Resources. I have explained in earlier posts the reasons for the current discrpency in market caps, which is enormous, and which the Market over the next year or so, will even out. my 2c............and hey, cteqf will be a fabulous investment as well going forward.

douginil, remember this recent upgrade is just a portion (what they call the Black Rock subsection) of a far more massive cobalt and nickle deposit, which the company is now drilling and aiming to upgrade.

The formal title to this resource is The Kalgoorlie Nickle Project (the KNP which the company says is "one of the largest cobalt projects in the world and certainly the largest in the developed world." (their phrase).

So they are upgrading this, and the news release of my earlier post is just a portion of their current work.

They are improving it in chunks. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THIS, I SAY THIS BECAUSE AS COBALT HAS BLASTED HIGHER MUCH MORE OF THIS MASSIVE, DEVELOPED WORLD RESOURCES COMES INTO PLAY AND BECOMES ECONOMIC...

At Cobalt priced at 5 to 10 bucks, it is not economic, but at cobalt priced at 27 or 28 bucks, today's price, (and exploding far higher), so much more of their massive resource can come into play.

From the Appendix 1 below:

"The global resource for the KNP is 805.3 Mt at 0.048 %
cobalt and 0.70 % nickel (Table 2 below) which equates to over 386,000 t of contained cobalt metal.
Table 2 – KNP Resources breakdown
Resource Category Quantity
(Mt)
Co
(%)
Ni
(%)
Measured 9.6 0.081 1.02
Indicated 244.0 0.052 0.75
KNP Total Measured and Indicated 253.6 0.052 0.76
Inferred 551.7 0.046 0.68
KNP Total Resources 805.3 0.048 0.70
Recent recalculation of these resources with a focus on cobalt rather than nickel concentrations shows
that the KNP is one of the world’s largest cobalt resources, and certainly the largest in the developed
world.
The KNP Cobalt Zone
A cobalt-rich subset of the KNP, known as the KNP Cobalt Zone, contains a significant cobalt and nickel
resource in its own right. The KNP Cobalt Zone contains 49.7 Mt at 0.12 % cobalt and 0.86 % nickel
(Table 3) for a total contained cobalt metal of just under 60,000 t. Our aim is to substantially increase
upon this initial resource through exploration of known outlying cobalt occurrences and drill intercepts, and
through reinterpretation of the resource based on cobalt cut-off grades rather than the current 0.5 % nickel
cut-off.

[COMPARISONS]:

Table 3 – KNP Cobalt Zone, Resource Statement from RMRC consulting group
Area Prospect Resource
category
Cutoff
(% Co)
Size
(Mt)
Cobalt
(%)
Nickel
(%)
Goongarrie Goongarrie
South
Measured 0.08 3.4 0.14 1.19
Indicated 0.08 11.2 0.11 0.92
Inferred 0.08 1.4 0.11 0.76
Big Four Indicated 0.08 4.5 0.11 0.89
Inferred 0.08 0.2 0.11 0.95
Scotia Inferred 0.08 2.9 0.14 0.88
Goongarrie subtotal 23.6 0.12 0.94
Siberia Black Range Inferred 0.50(Ni) 20.1 0.10 0.75
Yerilla Aubils Inferred 0.08 6.0 0.15 0.90
KNP Cobalt Zone total resources 49.7 0.12 0.86
KNP Cobalt Zone pre-feasibilty study underw

--------------------------------

See Appendix 1 which begins on page six of this presentation from earlier this year:
https://www.ardearesources.com.au/downloads/announcements/arl_2017022401.pdf

Key cobalt EV info from genius John Patterson, Seeking Alpha
tootalljones Sunday, 11/05/17 06:32:33 PM
Re: None
Post #
44
of 57 Go
There will be a "feeding frenzy" for cobalt producers. Cobalt production must increase "by 1928%" to support EV revolution. China now has locked up 60% of global production. Cobalt prices must go through the roof. There are almost no major deposits, and with the Congo/China tandem have a huge grip on this desperate market, the price will go through the roof. TRIPLE DIGITS.

It is all here, in this article and the many comments.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4110450-cobalt-cliff-will-crush-teslas-business-may-restore-sanity-ev-industry

Brilliant John Patterson's recent conclusion is this:

"With an average cobalt content of 8 kg per car, the 41,200 tonnes available for EV batteries in 2025 will only support the manufacture of 5.15 million EVs, a little over half of the aspirational totals set forth above.
.....At this point I have to believe the EV revolution has entered a melee phase where there won’t be enough cobalt to satisfy everybody’s needs and anyone who wants to play the game will have to stand toe-to-toe and compete for cobalt supplies with China Inc. and six of the world’s ten largest automakers."

Some of the raw data Patterson shares in his seminal article dated september 29,2017:


In the last 18 months, several events, developments and reports have corroborated, ratified and reinforced my original thesis, including:

Market Price

Cobalt prices have soared from $10.50 per pound in March 2016 to a recent high of $28.35 per pound.

Major Mine Purchase

In May 2016 China Molybdenum bought a 56% stake in the DRC’s Tenke Fungurume Mine from Freeport McMoRan for $2.65 billion and gained control over 10% of global cobalt production in a single transaction.

In July 2017, China Moly facilitated BHR Partners’ purchase of a 24% stake in the Tenke Mine from Lundin Mining for $1.14 billion.

China Dominates Cobalt Refining

Between the Tenke purchase and contracts to finance the Eurasian Resource Group’s Roan Tailings Project, Chinese interests will control at least 60% of the world’s refined cobalt production for the foreseeable future.

Updated Chinese Subsidy Regime

In January 2017, China updated its subsidy regime for new energy vehicles to favor higher energy densities and longer travel ranges while permitting the use of nickel-cobalt battery chemistries. As a result, a significant portion of the China market that was previously dominated by cobalt-free batteries is likely to change chemistries.

Bernstein’s 2017 Black Book

In March 2017 Bernstein released the latest version of its EV Black Book which devotes 60 of its 271 pages to cathode powder formulations, raw material requirements and the principal players in those markets.

In their slow adoption scenario, Bernstein expects the battery market for passenger EVs to exceed 360 GWh per year by 2025, which implies an annual cobalt demand of roughly 55,000 tonnes.

Interestingly, Bernstein also forecast a mining industry capital spending requirement of $350 to $750 billion to support a full transition to EVs and noted “the lead time required for conversion of exploration success into an operating mine has lengthened considerably and now stands at ~30 years.”

Ultimately, Bernstein’s battery materials discussion concludes, “Either the world must do without EVs or it must pay more for the commodities it consumes, the choice really is as simple as that.”

UBS Bolt Teardown

In May 2017, UBS published the results of their teardown analysis of a GM Bolt EV and estimated that global cobalt production would need to increase by 1928% to support an annual EV build of 100 million units. My estimate of a mere 900% global cobalt production growth requirement pales in comparison.

Morgan Stanley Cobalt Report

In June 2017, Morgan Stanley issued a 25-page commodity report on cobalt that surveyed planned capacity additions and forecast primary refined cobalt supply growth from 94.4 tonnes in 2016 to 148,300 tonnes in 2025.

On the demand side, Morgan Stanley forecast that in 2025, 59,600 tonnes of cobalt would be used for non-battery applications, and 47,500 tonnes would be used for consumer products batteries, which would leave 41,200 tonnes for use in EV batteries.

VW's Glencore contract

In July 2017, we learned that Contemporary Amperex Technology and its customer Volkswagen signed a four year 5,000 TPY cobalt offtake agreement with Glencore last fall.

VW's Contract Solicitation

In September 2017, we learned that VW is soliciting 10-year requirements-based cobalt offtake commitments for 16,000 to 24,000 TPY and wants contracts in place this year.

Until recently, I wasn’t completely convinced that leading automakers were truly committed to their EV initiatives. While the Chinese are deadly serious about promoting new energy vehicles as a mean of reducing pollution in their mega-cities, Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), Tesla, GM (NYSE:GM) and BMW were the only western automakers with credible EV programs. That dynamic changed after dieselgate when VW came to the EV party with a vengeance, partly as penance for past sins and partly in response to Germany’s increasing political support for electric drive.

In its “Global EV Outlook 2017” the International Energy Agency summarized the electric car ambitions of the world’s automakers as follows:

BMW

100,000 electric car sales in 2017; and
15-25% of the BMW group’s sales by 2025.

Chevrolet

30,000 annual electric car sales by 2017

Chinese OEMs

4.52 million annual electric car sales by 2020

Daimler

100,000 annual electric car sales by 2020

Ford

13 new EV models by 2020

Honda

Two-thirds of the 2030 sales to be electrified vehicles
(including hybrids, PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs)

Renault-Nissan

1.5 million cumulative sales of electric cars by 2020

Tesla

500,000 annual electric car sales by 2018; and
1 million annual electric car sales by 2020

Volkswagen

2-3 million annual electric car sales by 2025

Volvo

1 million cumulative electric car sales by 2025

With an average cobalt content of 8 kg per car, the 41,200 tonnes available for EV batteries in 2025 will only support the manufacture of 5.15 million EVs, a little over half of the aspirational totals set forth above.

TTJ Thanks for posting this link

Robleeway said: It's on. The market is getting tighter.
https://www.ft.com/content/297d7d4a-b002-11e7-aab9-abaa44b1e130

VW fails to secure long-term cobalt supply for electric vehicles

Producers shun carmaker’s tender for five years’ worth of the battery raw material

Financial Times
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/largest-cobalt-resource-with-lowest-valuation.3254804/page-34#post-28604490

Nice:https://www.ardearesources.com.au/downloads/announcements/arl_2017103101.pdf

Johnnyola1 (I am Johnny but the Aussie is real, lol)
image: http://www.stockhouse.com/Stockhouse/images/stars-mask.png

Post# 26916038
Honestly, this from a smart Aussie, fyi...
and I believe this smart Aussie much understates his argument, but for now, it will do.:
Posted tonight
Date:
07/11/17

New
Neoarchean said:
This invalid comparisons continue. In any comparison, it is essential that one compare similar things, including stocks.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/phony-clq-vs-arl-vs-auz.3816291/?post_id=28538109#.WgEgBLaZNAY
I suppose a few other things to mention when comparing ARL and CLQ.

CLQ has market cap of $900m. ARL $125m or so.

CLQ market cap now exceeds the NPV on its key project. How much upside from here?

My observation is most mining companies lose value as they start the process of building their mine.

I notice coverage from brokers on CLQ - range of price targets $1.60-$2.10.

ARL contained metals in its high grade zone actually stack up pretty well compared to Syerston.

Did you notice the palladium and platinum alongside the scandium we've found?

I wonder what happens when you include the low grade zone ARL has, that we can mine once the high grade stuff is done?

I wonder what happens when you include Lewis Ponds?

Let's not fall for the pissing contest. All good, and better than good cobalt deposits will do well in Australia over the coming decades. But I think it takes a special leap of imagination to suggest or imply that CLQ and ARL have the same upside from here...
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ARL (ASX)
Price at posting: $1.59

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