Amarin Corp PLC (AMRN) オプション

Well unfortunately the reality looks pretty dim to me
Turning to the bottom line, we reported a GAAP net loss of $25.1 million for the third quarter of 2024 ...and this is after a $15m royalty payment from Edding ....without that, their loss for the Qt would have been around $40m ..( my quick take )

So Co is bleeding $ , facing a reverse split and IMHO offering key people huge options for free ....to prevent them jumping ship.
However after the tax loss selling late Dec , stock appears to be trending upwards recently ...despite their bleak revenue /margin numbers .
Is there any area in the world where they are actually making a profit ...Spain ?
Maybe they sell the UK / EU market to AZN who already have sales reps / marketing infrastructure , selling their own CV drugs .

Kiwi

I'm fine with a BP running such a trial. As a matter of fact, I think BP would have an easier time convincing the Germans to reimburse, with or without such a trial. Hard to see management accepting anything less than 1 billion, probably a little more.

But back to reality, there doesn't seem to be even the slightest stirrings of any rumors of any kind of BO here. Not even a decision by management to do a strategic review. My guess is they want to be in a much stronger position before seeking a sale.

Well AMRN's mkt cap is now only $227m
For a BP who is willing to run a small confirmation trial using high risk secondary prevent CAD patients in Germany ...with cooperation / buy in from the German Health dept ( please no eye rolling now ) .....make an offer $680m . ( roughly triple current PPS )
If you really believe in Vascepa for CV risk reduction ( and I do ) ....it's a good spec for a BP

Of course most here will say that Denner will never accept this .
Well by the size of the free options he's giving out ...he's pretty desperate to stop key guys jumping ship
Kiwi

Wow, Sage 5 year chart - stock down 92%. Amarin 5 yr chart - stock down 97%.

Their financials look worse than Amarin. Maybe there is hope yet. Thanks for the heads up.

Very unlikely it will be delisted . They will do a reverse split if necessary .
HOWEVER ...if you were to suddenly post you were buying AMRN hand over fist ...I'm sure the stock would be over $1 in no time ... well not really .
Co has to around May to get above $1 .
Theres always the outside chance a BP may swoop in with a crazy low offer ...see Sage today . Vascepa has a market ...at least in the UK / EU
Biogen proposes to buy remaining stake in Sage in $442 million deal
Kiwi

Well their existing options are probably worthless ....so if you want your key guys to stay ....offer them a deal they can't refuse .
Just my jaded opinion .
For the optimists here ....they issued them a bunch of free options so they can really cash in on the Buy Out some here expect ( not my opinion ...but to be fair and balanced .......... :--)
Kiwi

Amarin needs the US insurance industry much more that the insurance industry needs Amarin. Perhaps after HealthNet, they learned to not bite the hand that feeds them even if it's just scraps.

Defensive much about your yogurt consumption?

How many more days can this stay below 1 dollar before it is delisted?

DAR, I just think maybe they look at the cost-benefit of additional legal actions, and decide it's not worth it. But yeah, who knows.

I leave you all with this as Amarin has us sometimes stretched to the limit of understanding their motivation.
The story is as told by an old comedian Jerry Clower where a group of hunters were out at night on one of their regular coon hunts. Coon dogs were barking at the base of a tree, and the men couldn't spot a coon. The men were yelling but they couldn't get the coon to move and the dogs continued their barking. One of the hunters took the initiative to climb the tree to get the coon out. Well up into the tree the hunter actually came face to face with a big mean wildcat. Screams and wildcat growling, hissing and snarling continued as the battle for territory ensued. Finally the hunter yelled down to his fellow hunters and said 'shoot up amonst us. One of us has to have some relief'.
Reminds me of Amarin some days.
Have a great weekend.

Wow, they have never awarded options like this. They have always issued restricted stock (in much smaller quantities). Thats a shit-ton of options at rock-bottom price.

Thats very telling.

Well Denner is certainly determined to incentivize these guys ( or at least reduce the chance they jump ship )

2. On January 10, 2025, the Reporting Person was granted an option to purchase 663,878 Ordinary Shares under the Plan. The shares subject to this option shall vest and become exercisable over eighteen months, with 50% to vest on the first anniversary of the grant date and the remaining balance to vest eighteen months after grant date.

So can buy these shares for 55c a year from now ....and sell half them and collect whatever profit there is above 55c per share

My take anyway
Kiwi

JRoon, maybe picking their battle is good advice, but Amarin ? Sarissa has not appeared to pick any battle. (That we have been made aware of).
Hey, I'm a glass half full kind of guy, but they have certainly tested my resilience.

noelan, I hope you are right. I know they want to keep that info close to the vest until launch. But, if they are not close to a launch, then I look at it as what would 12-12 young lawyers cost? Surely $200K per would cover the nut so a $2M - $2.4M expense for a year or so doesn't seem bad.
It's just a thought, but none of us like the non-communication / non-action.

RMB, I wish I knew. All I can say at this point is, I hope they give us a little glimpse of some real actions at the upcoming CC. It will be such a letdown if we get another "business as usual" conference call. At the very least, they are going to need to address the stock price. By the time of the CC, we will only be a few months out from D-day. Not much time to get into compliance.

My guess is this is the primary reason they are not going to the Conference. They simply don't want to address the solution to the stock price issue in public yet.

Kube, I don't disagree. I would think cease & desist letters are a no-brainer at minimum. But maybe they have bigger fish to fry.

And I say that because if what many others are suggesting is true (that there is "something" coming), then maybe they don't feel that there is ANY need to spend resources (money, time, effort, focus, etc.) towards something that likely wouldn't bear fruit anyway.

Because at the end of the day, some little online pharmacy calling generic IPE "generic Vascepa" will not change the outcome for anyone (ie. insurers still cover what they cover). If this was owned by a BP, and they had a long runway ahead of them, then they would absolutely be all over this shit.

I guess the bottom line is "pick your battles"? I don't know. Amarin is such an enigma.

What quiet period? Today is Jan 10. they most likely are not suppose to report earnings unril Mar 10, 2025. So Mar 10-30 days = Feb 10, beginning of quiet period
when did they ever report 2 months and 10 days after Year end??? Do you know something we don't?

For publicly-traded stocks, the four weeks before the close of a business quarter is also known as a quiet period.

meowza, lose the carton. It's getting old.

Alwayswatching, maybe they're in a quiet period if they are working on a material announcement. There could be a few things in the works. The most obvious is that the share price is under $1 and out of listing compliance, so why waste precious dollars on a nothing burger? Too many unknown factors to risky since the conference is all about pitching to the investment community, no one will even stop at their booth.

I think there are a couple of distinctions to be made…

1) protecting the Vascepa brand

With today’s AI technology, they could easily issue cease and desist orders to all individuals who make claims of implying they are generic Vascepa.

2) protecting the label infringement

This is a more complex, expensive and time consuming legal journey that may or may not yield a return on investment.

At this point, AMRN seems to have some legal momentum that should stop competitors from claiming they are the generic equivalent to Vascepa.

If that were the case, and believe me I hope that it is. wouldn't you think
the share price would creep up at least a little? We can not even get to
60 cent never mind a dollar! )o:

Dar, just maybe the reason Amarin is not pursuing further legal action even though they seem obvious to us, is they know a knew formulation is on the way? No need to waste resources that will become moot. I remember our CEO mentioning a possible new formulation a couple of years ago during an earnings call but said they would not discuss it in the future for competitive reasons. 

Noel

Read thru the BS. Amarin not attending the healthcare conference is most likely our strongest indicator so far Denner and Sarissa probably have this sold to BP IMO

JRoon, I notice you used the word hope. I wish I knew more about the formulation, what it will take to get it approved, and if it truly will protect itself from infringement. I worry that if its benefit vs IPE is that you need to take half the number of pills, then maybe a number of actors (patients, docs, insurers) will be willing to take double the amount of Generic IPE to accomplish the same thing. Now if it is entirely a different entity that wouldn't happen, BUT by the same token, it would need an NDA wouldn't it.

Anyway, hopefully the company soon clues us in to all the dynamics of this.

But DAR, could they? We are on year 5 of the Hikma case, and this thing is just getting started. GSK has been fighting Teva on the same thing for 10 years, and that's not done. Most companies we would be fighting have deeper pockets and longer time horizons. So they can afford to drag this stuff out for years (decades!). We settled with Healthnet, and that did absolutely nothing.

So the question becomes, is it the best use of financial resources to fight something you might never win (at least not before the company is sold).

the_kube, and I could not agree more. At this stage of the game, hiring a bevy of young agressive attorneys to thwart the infringement would be much more effective than hiring 10X of sales personnel. Amarin has to stop the loss of their patented revenue stream for CVD. Then they could hire sales personnel. Or, just come out with the new product and leave the G's in the ffing dust.

Kube, as DAR alluded to earlier, part of the problem is likely that Amarin simply doesn't want to commit the financial resources to fighting brand infringement like this. They're not Pfizer. They simply can't fight everyone.

I think at this point, they are just focused on getting themselves out of this mess operationally. At least that's how it appears.

As I've stated many times, I hope a new formulation and authorized generic will get them out of this mess in the U.S., and they won't need to worry about infringement.

Competitors that claim to be generic Vascepa are infringing, in my opinion. Vascepa is a brand and has a U.S. patent that differentiates it from the rest of the IPE market.

Back in college, many, many years ago, we studied cases like the two examples below…

Example 1… the maker of Kleenex protected the brand by suing businesses who would substitute a different tissue brand for Kleenex. The generic term is tissue and not generic Kleenex.

Example 2…. Restaurants have been sued for providing Pepsi to patrons that asked for a Coke. The generic term is cola and not generic Coke.

I contend that there is no such thing as generic Vascepa. Competitors should refer to their product as IPE and avoid any reference to the Vascepa brand and AMRN should be much more aggressive in protecting their trademark brand, Vascepa, in my opinion.

Yes, fully agree that their plans going forward will carry by far the most weight. Need to convince the market in Amarin's future prospects. Would be great if we got some positive news about France and script uptake in the rest of the EU.

I must admit, 47 has his charms.

My, the body of evidence for statins and brain disease is growing rapidly!
There can't be a correlation between statins and brain disease!The brain can't directly uptake cholesterol anyway

Yeah, I'm not really expecting anything crazy - good or bad. I think cashflow will be modestly worse than last quarter, and revenue a tad lower. It's always a wildcard on costs, as most of their "downsizing" has already taken place. But they still seem to be trimming here and there (for example, I bet they don't replace the Controller who was promoted to CFO).

I'm more interested in the other stuff they discuss going forward, which we hopefully hear about at the CC at the end of February.

Possible but who knows.  For me it is more important whether it is better than expected or worse than expected.  

Last year, Amarin pre-announced Q4 results on January 10th. Will we see that again?

Last couple of weeks the market has given a bit of sheet kicking to many overvalued high flyers, but our little Amarin appears during that time to have become a little safe haven. Be nice if we slowly but surely keep rising and with some good news from the EU streak across that $1 mark.

Talshu…..Lr-EtEPA patent is getting ripe?..shouldn’t we be close to receiving examiners comments (if any)…also note new info re Amarin spending $100k last summer (while related Patent is still pending) on Kentucky research study on same topic…interesting commitment of capital…..”watch what they do, not what they say”….

Stockboy, I don't know the science of statins well enough to have an opinion. However, as an Amarin shareholder, you better hope you are wrong, and that Amarin management (and doctors) do not share your belief. Otherwise, Vascepa would be toast.

I will say, from everything I have read, that the "statins cause dementia" thinking has been pretty well debunked. In fact, I have read a lot about statins actually helping prevent dementia.

And I only say this because my family has a history of heart disease AND dementia, so I have spent a lot of time reading about it. But, as I said, I don't know ENOUGH about it to really have a strong opinion.

DAR, that makes a lot of sense. I knew that cases take forever, hence why something like GSK vs. Teva is still ongoing after 10+ years.

This is why I have little faith in our current lawsuit having any meaningful impact on Amarin. Maybe someday it will help the eventual buyer of Amarin. But I doubt it ever helps us shareholders. So I see focusing on it as just silly. I'm more concerned about what will impact our own share price now and in the future.

But you're also right about the lack of communication. We know approximately 0.1% of what is happening at Amarin. And I suspect most of us are wrong about Sarissa's strategy.

JRoon, most of us longs on this board have many ideas that should help Amarins position in the US market. While we think it would be 'obvious', we don't know if any of these ideas are being acted on. Literally no communications to SH which is what they ran their proxy vote on. So, my belief is they don't have enough attorneys to pursue. We have in-house legal and now outside counsel to persue the Hikma case. But they don't have the time to pursue ten's, hundreds, or thousands of situations to slow infringement. Or send the Cease and Desist.
I was speaking with an attorney here in Houston yesterday regarding a federal case. I asked why it takes so long to close or even get a case to trial. His response was that the courts across the country are overburdened. For example, Houston has the same number of federal judges that they had when the population was half the size. When an attorney asks for a 30 day extension to respond the opponent attorney agrees and the judge immediately approves. They just kick the can down the road due to their busy caseload.
The solution he said was simple. Hire more judges and move the cases through the courts.
So, having said that, Amarin could be more proactive and bring on a sense of urgency to stop the infringing if they hired more attorneys to attack the problem areas by educating the offenders to their error, be it lack of knowledge or blatant disregard of the law.
JMO

Residual Traditional Risk in Non-Traditional Atherosclerotic Diseases
Published: 10 January 2025
https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/26/2/535

Well Kiwi, your claim of have extended the life expectancy of millions ...including myself . ........ is just what you accused Stockboy of...... you don't know if Statins have extended your life expectancy ........... you are saying that because you take a statin that has reduced your LDL, that this has extended your life expectancy. Do you have proof that with all things being equal and if you did nothing else healthwise but take a statin, your life has been extended. You can't have proof and you don't have proof. I do wish you the best of health but Stockboys claims are just as relevant as your claims.

Good find ORBAPU....... I'm a fan of Zoe in that article...... they messed with the wrong woman and I hope she is successful in suing the pants off of that idiot journalist.

Re the brain needs cholesterol
The blood brain barrier effectively prevents uptake of lipoprotein-bound cholesterol from blood circulation. Accordingly, cholesterol level in the brain is independent from that in peripheral tissues.

Re being suicidal ...seek help ...even if its only with well qualified online chat groups
I'm sure everyone on this board would support you doing this .

Kiwi

https://stocktwits.com/SanDiegoLiving/message/599462683

Your posts are remarkable ...remarkable in that you have learnt so little about Cardiovascular disease despite your 200 odd post and time spent on this board .
Second to that is your ignorance re economics . The idea that Central America is a potential market for Vascepa !!! Have you even been there . Last time I was in Guatemala , half the population was just happy to get $100 US a month for food ... let alone paying whatever Vascepa Brand or generic would cost them .

Re " some of us become suicidal " which I assume includes yourself .
Statins have nothing to do with suicidal thoughts .
I'm sorry you are experiencing this if you are including yourself . Seek help . No one should feel embarrassed seeking help for mental health.

Re statin side effects . Yes they occur and are well documented . People often pursue alternatives such as Vascepa , better diet , more exercise , stopping smoking etc to lower their CV risk .
But about BP . Statins are generic . The large Bio Pharmas have little to zero income for the current Statin sales . Teva may be the largest seller of Statins and I haven't looked at their earning report recently to determine what % of revenue is from generic Statins .

Re heart attacks etc . I wish I was naive . Unfortunately I've had some first hand experience..... watching my parents trying to resuscitate my grandfather who had a fatal heart attack while in our house , listening to my wife trying to persuade one of her dialysis patients to go to the ER to get treated for high serum potassium .
This occurred over the holidays . She saw his labs online . Called him to go to the ER . He delayed but when he got there he went into a heart arrhythmia then fatal heart attack .
If he had gone right after her call to him he may still be alive ...but apparently waited until he was short of breath and not feeling well ( family report )

So please ...before you tell people not to take their statins ...try and understand why they were prescribed them in the first place .
And if you have suicidal thoughts ...seek help ..even online ...just do it
Good luck
Kiwi

ORBAPU, very timely, unfortunately, nothing will be resolved until RFKjr is in office. 47 is talking about dissolving PBM's so let's see how that process unfolds.

OT: Healthcare insurance company calls doc in mid- surgery trying to deny hospital stay:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealthcare-calls-doctor-mid-surgery-201800124.html

I get really tired of the 'one way or the highway' attitude so prevalent in mainstream conversation. Some of us just don't think like others nor invest like you. I'm an Amarin long-hauler, so I take my punches. I'm also statin-intolerant and became suicidal as all of my siblings are also statin intolerant, so I get weary of being labeled "dangerous" and name-called because I happen to be among a good percentage audience of people who can't take statins due to their side effects.

We're all on the same page about Vascepa, but I'm also not going to bend over to BP about statins. The correlation in brain diseases with the rise of statin prescriptions is undeniable. The brain needs cholesterol. Starved of it, all sorts of nasty things happen.

I am fine with what you think works for you, but your assertions are juvenile resorting to demeaning name calling. You're a typical puppet for the BP industry because there are many articles supporting my viewpoint, but they are continually buried by BP. People like you will never be convinced when some of us became suicidal, experienced extreme statin side effects, why? Because you are simply focused on yourself. You're naive.