rosemountbomber
17時間前
Kiwi, I am not sure but here is the one thing that might be impacted with an authorized generic. You and others can school me on this but do PBMs or insurance companies only permit one generic version for their coverage/formularies? I swear that I have gotten various manufacturers of GV over the last 2 years all while having the same insurance and PBM. So if they do not single out a particular generic manufacturer, this is what I am thinking.
My insurance a couple of years ago aborted covering V altogether. Now this past July CVS stopped covering it for their commercial plans. Not sure how many other PBMs/ insurers have curtailed covering brand V. But, they all cover GV. So my thought is that an authorized generic V would fall into that generic category wouldn't it and hence be covered. Now, do all the GVs offer their product to the PBMs at the same price, I don't know? How do patients request an authorized generic instead of a non-authorized generic? But otherwise I would have to agree with you PBM go with what makes them the most money.
Chromosome
18時間前
As an aside, I have been thinking about the China NRDL situation. This may have been mentioned elsewhere. As an example, Keytruda (Merck) and (Opdivo (BMS) opted not to participate in the NRDL process in China as they did not want to compete on price. I don't know what the list price of these drugs are in China (around 300K in the US per year), but regardless of that they have close to 10% market share in China. So sure, its great to have NRDL for high volume, but with the growing middle class willing and able to pay out of pocket for cancer drugs, I would imagine the OOP segment, even at 1% of the 300 million paying list price can generate some good revenue. Just my opinion.
Whalatane
18時間前
Re the China market ...from Bloomberg
So why will Chinese looking to lose weight be paying so much less for Wegovy than their counterparts in the US, where health-care costs can be notoriously sky-high?
Let’s start with the obvious: As many as 95% of China’s 1.4 billion people get basic health insurance through a government agency that controls which drugs get reimbursed. Every year, domestic and foreign drugmakers gather in a nondescript building in Beijing to meet with authorities from this agency to negotiate prices of their drugs. It’s a grueling exercise that ultimately determines whether they earn a spot on the coveted National Reimbursement Drug List, or NRDL.
The agency is known to drive a hard bargain. In 2023, drug companies slashed prices by an average of nearly 62% to get their medications on the NRDL, in a bet that the sales volume it unlocked would be worth the price cut.
It’s common for foreign drugmakers to cut prices in the lead-up to the negotiations, in anticipation of further cuts. Even those who choose not to engage would need to face competitors, including local companies who are increasingly capable of developing me-too versions of their drugs.
And unlike the US, China doesn't have complicated systems for rebates, meaning drug companies don't have to bake in as big of a cut for middlemen.
Wegovy’s $193 price tag in China is likely to fuel more complaints about high drug costs in the US, where Senator Bernie Sanders has accused Novo’s chief executive officer of prioritizing profits over American lives.
Chinese authorities have made clear they don’t intend to reimburse for Wegovy use, meaning most patients will pay out of pocket unless they have commercial insurance. Still, keeping the treatment affordable will likely help Novo make inroads among the 140 million Chinese adults estimated to live with obesity by 2030.
Kiwi
JRoon71
21時間前
Triple, they are very limited in how much they can buy each week anyway, so even if they DID start the buyback, we're only talking about a couple hundred thousand shares per day, at most.
Think about the math...they are allowed 25% of the average daily volume. Right now, the average daily volume (30-day) is 890K shares. 25% of that is 223K. Call it 250K. At the current share price (call it $0.50), that's $125K per day. There's roughly 21 market days in a month. That's $2.6M a month in purchases. So, VERY low need for cash liquidity right away. Even if you double the share count (due to increased average volume), or double the share price (because the BB will pump the price), you are talking $5M a month. Double volume AND price, and you are still only talking $10M a month.
This is also why this is very confusing. For a very small cost of cash, they could begin executing the BB.
I do still believe that they think either (1) the price can go lower, or (2) they want to time their purchases more strategically.
Denisk
22時間前
Re buyback acquisition & price movement in the stock
IMO any buyback will not happen anytime soon as the must strive to maintain their cash position of ( 300K) for a long as possible in the event of possible erosion of the gross profit margin & revenue downside. Also, One must notice that between the second & 3rd quarter, they have moved close to 60 million of their cash to short term investment, with the hope to garner additional income & possibly cash from these investments. That would also confirm that they do not intend to drain their cash in the short term via a Buyback.
With reference to a possible improvement in the share price in the short term: They recently filed for an extension to May 2025 on the delisting issue. Therefore I am inclined to think that they do not foresee the price going to $1.00 in the next 3 to 4 months. Aside from some unexpected new reimbursements in EU countries , unusual high increase in EU scripts in EU or a favorable legal decision vs Hikma case, It is hard to fathom the share price getting close to $1.00 in the next three months.
As for the acquisition: No one, I think expect a BP to take interest in this company based on the current revenue level & share price of the stock. Until there are major improvement in the EU sales and ROW (China included), I doubt any of them would venture in a possible acquisition of the company.
JRoon71
24時間前
DAR, I have thought through that possibility. As you said, they would be subject to filing, so we would know about it. And they are also subject to quarterly 13f's regardless. I have been tracking the 13f's, and no entity of Cantor (they have several) has filed for even 1 share of AMRN (through Q3).
I have not been able to confirm if that would even be legal (for them to "wink-wink" buy for their own accounts, with the eventual plan to sell to Amarin) for them to do, and not have Amarin file that. Since Amarin already filed to say taht Cantor is doing this.
Not to say it's NOT possible somehow. I just don't know how. And if it's sketchy, not sure Denner wants to go back to the well just after getting nabbed for failure to fulfill his fiduciary duties.
rosemountbomber
24時間前
Could, I guess I threw out the acquisition idea mostly to highlight that they aren't doing much with that pile of cash. I would be worried about two things with them trying to acquire an accretive asset. First, I see so many deals where the buyer overpays and gets screwed. Secondly, since they have mismanaged the golden goose they have, no reason to believe they would do any better with another.
I guess I was thinking of saying that maybe Denner should invest that cash with Sarissa's team or another firm, but thought it was too crass to say, but the point would be to show that the reason we invest in these companies is that they are supposed to do better for us than us simply putting our miney in a money market fund or online savings account.
Of course we don't know everything and just speculating as to why they haven't started the BB, so there could be some valid reason for their reticence. We usually find out in the end