Cyclical Recovery from the 'Great Recession' But Secular Issues Remain, Virtus Strategist Says
2009年10月23日 - 3:00AM
PRニュース・ワイアー (英語)
Bublitz sees need for active portfolio management as trends take
hold SAN FRANCISCO and HARTFORD, Conn., Oct. 22
/PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- There are two prevailing schools of
thought emerging from the global economic recovery, according to
the latest commentary from Max Bublitz, chief strategist and
portfolio manager at SCM Advisors LLC, an affiliated investment
manager of Virtus Investment Partners (NASDAQ:VRTS). One side is
convinced that global markets and economies have successfully
transitioned into a sustainable recovery; the other camp believes
that the foundations of the current recovery are illusory and the
recent bounce is little more than a natural snapback from
unsustainable extremes. (Logo:
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20090105/NEM020LOGO ) Which
side is right? The answer to that question, Bublitz writes in his
latest quarterly market commentary, There's Battle Lines Being
Drawn, may depend on one's belief in the government's role in
policy stimulus. Bublitz notes that hardliners expect the economy
to self-correct without government "meddling," while others believe
the "constant tinkering by enlightened policymakers" is needed to
save the economy. But neither theory is supported by history, he
says, noting that "recovery from the damage inflicted by what some
have taken to calling the Great Recession will take a lot more
time." "Nevertheless, we can be certain of one thing: this is an
environment that will provide plenty of opportunity for active
managers." Bublitz expects the GDP in the second half of 2009 to
reflect "measurable, if only temporary impact on domestic demand"
from the stimulus efforts and from a rebuilding of
recession-depleted inventories and net exports. But, he warns that
domestic consumption will be weighed down by the housing market and
that the deteriorated U.S. job market will continue to be a drag on
the recovery. Americans should brace for an unemployment rate that
could approach 11 percent by mid-2010. Bublitz also cautions that
the economic benefits from the initial fiscal stimulus efforts will
begin to wane in the fourth quarter and into 2010, which could lead
to negative GDP by late next year. Additionally, the need for
ongoing stimulus may require the Fed Open Market Committee to
remain "accommodative until deep into 2010 or even in 2011." "These
changing times demand that our investment decisions be built on a
solid foundation of fundamental research. They demand that we be
prepared to take advantage of opportunities that inevitably arise
when price deviates from fundamental value." About SCM Advisors LLC
SCM Advisors LLC, an affiliated investment manager of Virtus
Investment Partners, is an independently-managed investment firm,
based in San Francisco, CA, that provides asset management services
to corporate, government and multi-employer pension funds, as well
as foundations, endowments and high net worth private clients. SCM
Advisors specializes in fixed income and equity strategies for its
diversified client base. Visit SCM Advisors at
http://www.scmadv.com/. About Virtus Investment Partners, Inc.
Virtus Investment Partners (NASDAQ:VRTS) is a distinctive
partnership of boutique investment managers singularly committed to
the long-term success of individual and institutional investors.
The company provides investment management products and services
through its affiliated managers and select subadvisers, each with a
distinct investment style, autonomous investment process and
individual brand. Virtus Investment Partners offers access to a
variety of investment styles across multiple disciplines to meet a
wide array of investor needs. Additional information can be found
at http://www.virtus.com/.
http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20090105/NEM020LOGO
http://photoarchive.ap.org/ DATASOURCE: Virtus Investment Partners,
Inc. CONTACT: Matthew Kirdahy, , or Andrew Healy, , both of
Middleberg Communications, +1-212-812-5665; or Joe Fazzino of
Virtus Investment Partners, +1-860-263-4725, Web Site:
http://www.virtus.com/
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