Bitcoin Bull Run Tied To Economic Echoes Of The 1930s-1970: Arthur Hayes
2024年7月2日 - 5:15PM
NEWSBTC
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has
recently offered a comprehensive analysis in his latest essay,
“Zoom Out,” drawing compelling parallels between the economic
upheavals of the 1930s-1970s and today’s financial landscape,
specifically focusing on the implications for the Bitcoin and
crypto bull run. His in-depth examination suggests that historical
economic patterns, when properly understood, can provide a
blueprint for understanding the potential revival of the Bitcoin
and crypto bull run. Understanding Financial Cycles Hayes begins
his analysis by exploring the major economic cycles starting from
the Great Depression, through the mid-20th century economic booms,
and into the stagnant 1970s. He categorizes these transformations
into what he terms “Local” and “Global” cycles, central to
understanding the broader macroeconomic forces at play. Local
Cycles are characterized by intense national focus where economic
protectionism and financial repression are prevalent. These cycles
often arise from governmental responses to severe economic crises
that prioritize national recovery over global cooperation,
typically leading to inflationary outcomes due to the devaluation
of fiat currencies and increased government spending. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Price Blasts Past $63,000: Top 3 Reasons Global
Cycles, in contrast, are marked by periods of economic
liberalization, where global trade and investment are encouraged,
often leading to deflationary pressures due to increased
competition and efficiency in global markets. Hayes carefully
examines each cycle’s impact on asset classes, noting that during
Local cycles, non-fiat assets like gold have historically performed
well due to their nature as hedges against inflation and currency
devaluation. Hayes draws a direct parallel between the creation of
Bitcoin in 2009 and the economic environment of the 1930s. Just as
the economic crises of the early 20th century led to transformative
monetary policies, the financial crash of 2008 and subsequent
quantitative easing set the stage for the introduction of Bitcoin.
Why The Bitcoin Bull Run Will Resume Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s
emergence during what he identifies as a renewed Local cycle,
characterized by the global recession and significant central bank
interventions, mirrors past periods where traditional financial
systems were under stress, and alternative assets like gold rose to
prominence. Expanding on the analogy between gold in the 1930s and
Bitcoin today, Hayes elucidates how gold served as a safe
haven during times of economic uncertainty and rampant
inflation. He posits that Bitcoin, with its decentralized and
state-independent nature, is well-suited to serve a similar purpose
in today’s volatile economic climate. Related Reading: Mt. Gox’s
Bitcoin Dump: How Will The $9 Billion Sell-Off Affect BTC’s Price?
“Bitcoin operates outside the traditional state systems, and its
value proposition becomes particularly evident in times of
inflation and financial repression,” Hayes notes. This feature of
Bitcoin, he argues, makes it an indispensable asset for those
seeking to preserve wealth amidst currency devaluation and fiscal
instability. Hayes points out the significant surge in the US
budget deficit, projected to reach $1.915 trillion in fiscal 2024,
as a modern indicator that parallels the fiscal expansions of past
Local cycles. This deficit, significantly higher than in previous
years, marking the highest level outside the COVID-19 era, is
attributed to increased government spending akin to historical
periods of government-induced economic stimuli. Hayes uses these
fiscal indicators to suggest that just as past Local cycles led to
increased valuation for non-state assets, the current fiscal and
monetary policies are likely to enhance the appeal and value of
Bitcoin. “Why am I confident that Bitcoin will regain its mojo? Why
am I confident that we are in the midst of a new mega-local,
nation-state first, inflationary cycle?” Hayes asks rhetorically in
his essay. He believes that the same dynamics that drove the value
of assets like gold during past economic upheavals are now aligning
to bolster the value of Bitcoin. He concludes, “I believe fiscal
and monetary conditions are loose and will continue to be loose,
and therefore, hodl’ing crypto is the best way to preserve wealth.
I am confident that today will rhyme with the 1930s to 1970s, and
that means, given I can still freely move from fiat to crypto, I
should do so because debasement through the expansion and
centralisation of credit allocation through the banking system is
coming.” At press time, BTC traded at $62,649. Featured image from
YouTube / What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com
Quant (COIN:QNTUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 9 2024 まで 10 2024
Quant (COIN:QNTUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 10 2023 まで 10 2024