BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Stage Late-day Surge On U.S.-China Trade Optimism
2019年1月18日 - 6:14AM
Dow Jones News
By Sunny Oh
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. officials were debating
rolling back tariffs on Chinese imports
Treasury yields rose Thursday as stocks mounted a late-session
rally after reports that the U.S. was debating ending tariffs on
Chinese imports helped ease fears around a potential trade war.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.8 basis points to 2.747%,
after briefly touching an intraday low of 2.699%. The 2-year note
yield picked up 1.9 basis points to 2.564%, from a session low of
2.520%, while the 30-year bond yield was mostly unchanged at
3.075%, around its highest levels since Dec. 18. Bond prices move
in the opposite direction of yields.
Stocks received a lift from a report by The Wall Street Journal
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weighs-lifting-china-tariffs-to-hasten-trade-deal-calm-markets-11547754006)
saying U.S. officials were considering rolling back import levies
on Chinese goods to calm markets and ease trade tensions. The U.S.
Treasury Department said that no recommendations on tariffs had
been made. Both Beijing and Washington are looking to resolve
current negotiations before a March deadline, when tariffs on $200
billion of Chinese imports are slated to rise to 25% from 10%
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/u-s-sets-new-march-2-date-for-china-tariff-increases-amid-talks-idUSKBN1OD2QL).
Bond yields rose as they took their cue from U.S. equities, with
the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting solid
gains
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-poised-to-open-lower-snap-2-session-rise-2019-01-17).
China's chief trade negotiator Liu He will go to Washington in a
few weeks for talks starting Jan. 30.
"There will be progress when a high-level Chinese delegation
visits Washington at the end of this month, but getting a deal
before an early March deadline is an uphill battle. An extension is
likely, which probably would delay the threatened U.S. 25% tariffs
on a wide range of Chinese products," said Greg Valliere, chief
global strategist at Horizon Investments, in a note.
Yet earlier in the day, investors were worried about
intensifying trade tensions after the Justice Department had
reportedly put Huawei under investigation for allegedly stealing
trade secrets from T-Mobile
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-launch-criminal-probe-into-huawei-over-alleged-trade-theft-2019-01-16).
The case comes in the wake of the arrest of the telecoms firm's
chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada in early December at
the request of the U.S. for alleged bank fraud.
Yields initially rose after the January reading for the
Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey jumped to 17.0 from 9.1 in
December
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philadelphia-fed-manufacturing-index-rebounds-in-january-2019-01-17).
The data helped to counter fears around tariff-related weakness in
U.S. factories, especially after sharp drops in other widely
followed manufacturing gauges.
"This report should lessen fears that growth is suddenly
weakening sharply," wrote Jim O' Sullivan, chief U.S. economist for
High Frequency Economics.
Political jitters from Washington showed few signs of
disappearing as the government shutdown resulted in federal workers
missing paychecks and a growing backlog of economic data that has
yet to be released. Analysts warn the data is likely to be
distorted once it comes out.
See: Why stock-market investors may soon need to worry about the
government shutdown
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-are-starting-to-worry-about-the-government-shutdown-2019-01-16)
Though, the coming data has been thinned out, investors had some
information on the economy's health to digest on Thursday.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined by 3,000 to
213,000
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-but-more-federal-workers-seek-aid-as-government-shutdown-drags-on-2019-01-17)
in the week ended Jan. 12, below the 220,000 consensus forecast
produced by a MarketWatch survey of economists.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 17, 2019 15:59 ET (20:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.