Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) オプション

SMCI lower gap, iphone prices soaring seems

to have boosted sentiment today...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/tech/apple-iphones-cost-tariffs-impact-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-prices-trump-tariff-impact-cost-timeline-2025-4

been taking some big losses today

to trim down during the festivities...

good to know things are great again...

so we watch...LJ

Great reversal after the 90 days pause. He had no choice.

Not sure why our numbers would be different? If I go out to a monthly chart I can see a $29+ support I guess.
Support lines are support lines for a reason. I believe (and know) many big boys who use these as indicators, and I believe this is why they work. However, its important to use same technicals as they do.
Long ago I quit asking why they work so well and just accept them.
Now, if you want a crazy belief system!....a couple of years ago I did a private tour of Yellowstone and the guide was discussing these....


Yellowstone's hydrothermal ecosystems, like Grand Prismatic Spring, harbor unique life forms, including thermophiles (microorganisms thriving in hot temperatures) and plants like warm spring spikerush, which form floating mats in thermal waters.

Now, she was telling me these thermophiles have a brain and their movement is not just random.....Now THAT! Will blow your mind to think about.

On mine, I've got the weekly support on $29.47. I see that as a little more realistic in terms of where things have been lately. Kind of surprised its holding that right now honestly.

I focus on weekly charts, therefore to me, it all depends on where it finishes the week. I see support at $32.31 currently.
I think too many people here try to use very short term charts and therefore unreliable trends, supports, and resistances.
It also gives false chart patterns. I've seen too many people think they are seeing a cup and handle, where in reality it isn't even close to that.
Not that I'm saying you're wrong.

You want me to tag in as team leader?

Lots to worry about. Que sera sera!

Uncharted territory for market now...

23.88 is gap that is easy to remember

from memory...

another bottom test of 27 to 28 area would

need to hold to keep things more stable...

Too much up buying on Monday and Tuesday

raise the question...

Was too much spent by buyers at higher prices

and not leaving enough for bottom support?...

SMCI isn't alone in being volatile now...


so we watch...LJ

I did it on purpose so you can chime in.

Quite the whipsaw today.

LOL...sorry to laugh, but I found this funny...

Not saying it will happen, just an opinion

Ummm, that's kinda what an opinion is, saying something will happen.

I think you are spot on around the $27 range for now. This pop to $35 isn't going to hold into next week I don't think.

SMCI shows support in 27 to 28 range

to maybe day trade from until the

mess gets cleared up...

teens is just too low to imagine for most...

20% China tariff, sales tax increase, is already

in the system and will start affecting prices...

10% tariff on most imports started on Friday

will take a week to weeks to move into prices

depending on shipping distance from U.S....

It is all sales tax increase equivalent on

everyone in supply chain or buyer...

Either seller eats some of added cost or

passes it on to the buyers...

It is a total of 10% either way...

25% tariff on foreign autos imported...

25% on metal imported...is the local recycler

gonna give us 25% more on aluminum

cans now?...heck no...

Carrot of lower gasoline price being dangled

to get buyers to pay higher prices isn't likely

to change or increase...

It wasn't it Trump M.O. in past term...

A higher tax rate on big earning corporations

and wealthy wage earners should have been

done instead of tasking the lower and middle

class to pay higher costs for tariff collections

to fund an over spending U.S. Gov't...

SPY has room to drop, but there will be

some uneven losing on a negative trend...

Or all the tariff rift could get dropped and

in 3 to 6 months things could normalize...

Let us hope for better than worse...

so we watch...LJ

All valid points. Thanks for the insight.

I never said, in one whole day or week or month, so lets just assume some numbers, I believe S & P will hit 4000-4500 by August maybe even sooner, if Trump doesn't back out from the Tariffs, but you also have to consider if a war broke out between the US and Iran, which Trump absolutely will not shy away, if Iran doesn't listen to him, oil prices will rocket up to 100 dollars overnight and possibly over a span hit 150 dollars, that in itself is inflationary, plus the tariffs, it definitely doesn't look good, we haven't even seen the affects of the tariffs, you won't see those tariffs hikes of 20-25% until after 60-90 days, when it is transferred to the consumers, that's called inflation too. If S & P hit 4000, yes we could see high single to low double digits.

That's fair - it just seems like those conditions taking this down to single digits would be a doomsday scenario.

Not saying it will happen, just an opinion, waiting to see if the US and Israel going to bomb Iran and 3 month of wait to see how these tariffs are going to affect the consumers, other than that everything is based on assumption, just like I assumed this will play out like CARVANA and hit 200 dollars by August of this year, with the market meltdown and the World in chaos and possible war with Iran, it doesn't look good.

Okay, you showed that you can bounce,

but do you have the legs to

keep it up?...

cheerleader tryouts on 04/09/25...

so we watch...LJ

Single digits is quite bold..... That would be a major upset.

ns Fung, He's been SMCI biggest cheerleader. What's up with that Dino? Please share

Man, it is teetering! But our biggest cheerleader here is calling for single digits. That's brutal!!
Have I become the new head cheerleader?

Beat the overall market today but has done that before and then dived.

Not yet I'm afraid....but we could be headed there.
Right now there are too many people in the category of "we've seen corrections before. don't panic and if anything, buy more".
We are a ways away from "hunker down and pray" or "get yourself a good gun and watch out for your neighbors"

It's a dog eat dog eat World now, every man for himself.

Well, obviously I believe your single digit prediction is way off. But in a world where nothing is sacred, who the heck knows?!!!
Forget Trump, I've tried to warn people about the risk of having a President AND both sides of Congress majority of the same Party.

There are way too many nutjobs (like the poster on here), who blindly follow.

Anything is possible with this meltdown. Last I heard also, that Trump might make preemptive strike against Iran, if and when that happens, huge inflation on our way.

Single digits?

Yes it would. They will buy with two hands.

Experienced hands know this is how fortunes are made. Single digits would represent huge buying opportunity.

We manufacture the majority of our systems
at our San Jose, California headquarters. We
believe we are the only major server, storage
and accelerated compute platform vendor that
designs, develops, and manufactures a significant
portion of their systems in the United States.
Global assembly, test and quality control of our
servers are performed at our manufacturing facilities
in San Jose, California, Taiwan and the Netherlands,
with plans to expand manufacturing to Malaysia.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536525000004/smci-20240630.htm

SMCI shareholders are battle tested against

big short collusion on Wall Street...

Made in U.S. A. needs to prevail now despite

more short attacks from Wall Street...


so we watch...LJ

Huge market meltdown. S & P to 4000 is in the cards sooner than expected. SMCI will see single digits.

https://finance.yahoo.com

Manufacturing and Quality Control

We manufacture the majority of our systems at our San Jose, California headquarters. We believe we are the only major server, storage and accelerated compute platform vendor that designs, develops, and manufactures a significant portion of their systems in the United States. Global assembly, test and quality control of our servers are performed at our manufacturing facilities in San Jose, California, Taiwan and the Netherlands, with plans to expand manufacturing to Malaysia. In each of our existing facilities, a Quality and Environmental Management System has been certified according to ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and/or ISO 13485 standards. Our suppliers and contract manufacturers are required to support the same standards to maintain consistent product and service quality and continuous improvement of quality and environmental performance.

We use several third-party suppliers and contract manufacturers for materials and sub-assemblies. We believe that selectively using outsourced manufacturing services allows us to focus on our core competencies in product design and development and increases our operational flexibility. We believe our manufacturing strategy allows us to adjust manufacturing capacity in response to changes in customer demand and to rapidly introduce new products to the market. We use Ablecom Technology, Inc. (“Ablecom”) and its affiliate Compuware Technology, Inc. (“Compuware”), both of which are related parties, for contract design and manufacturing coordination support. We work with Ablecom to optimize modular designs for our chassis and several other components. Ablecom also coordinates the manufacturing of chassis for us. In addition to providing a large volume of contract manufacturing services to us, Ablecom warehouses multiple components and subassemblies manufactured by various suppliers before shipment to our facilities in the United States, Europe and Asia. We also have a series of agreements with Compuware, including multiple product development, production and service agreements, product manufacturing agreements and lease agreements for office space. See Note 10, “Related Party Transactions,” in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements and Part III, Item 13, “Certain Relationships and Related Transactions and Director Independence.”

We monitor our inventory continuously to be able to meet customer delivery requirements and to avoid inventory obsolescence. Due to our building-block designs, our inventory can generally be used with multiple different products, lowering working capital requirements and reducing the risk of inventory write-downs.



text source, SMCI 2024 10K Annual Filing...

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1375365/000137536525000004/smci-20240630.htm


so we watch...LJ

DJ Apple, 2 Other Stocks Are 'Worst Positioned' in Tech Hardware for Tariffs -- Barrons.com
11:37 AM ET 4/3/25 | Dow Jones


By Tae Kim

U.S. computer hardware makers face potentially "calamitous" damage from President Donald Trump's newly announced tariffs on dozens of countries, Morgan Stanley says.

Late Wednesday, Trump announced high so-called reciprocal tariff rates on Asian nations, including 34% on China, 46% on Vietnam, and 26% on India, effective on April 9. The aggregate rate for China could be as high as 79% when adding in tariffs Trump had already imposed on the country.

Technology hardware analyst Erik Woodring said Apple, Dell Technologies, and HP Inc. are among the "worst positioned" of the companies he covers because of their reliance on manufacturing and assembly in Asia.

"Reciprocal tariffs are calamitous to IT hardware given nearly all hardware products sold in the U.S. are now subject to 25%-54% import tariffs (including iPhones)," Woodring wrote Thursday in a note titled "Nowhere to Hide."

The analyst estimates the added cost of tariffs will cost Apple more than $33 billion a year, or 26% of its fiscal 2025 operating profits. He also says the tariff costs could equal almost the entire estimated net profit for Dell and HP this year.

Apple and HP didn't immediately respond to requests for comment on the report. A Dell spokesperson sent this statement: "We are reviewing and assessing the impact of the tariffs announced yesterday. Dell has a strong track record of leading through any environment with our globally resilient and agile supply chain."

In early trading Thursday, Apple, Dell, HP shares were down 9%, 16%, and 17%, respectively.

"Hardware companies have few mitigation tools at their disposal to offset these tariffs," Woodring wrote. He said he expects higher prices for customers as a result.

Most of the world's technology products are made in Asia, including smartphones, computers, videogame consoles, and big-screen TVs. Apple, in particular, relies on the contract manufacturer Foxconn to make the vast majority of its iPhones in China.

The only potential "silver lining" would be if the companies can convince the Trump administration to lower the tariff rates before they take effect, the analyst said.

Write to Tae Kim at tae.kim@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Barrons had a good article on new positioning

after tariff rift...

AAPL, DELL, HPE...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-hardware-stocks-risks-tariffs-9b478386?siteid=yhoof2

San Jose, Ca. is in U.S....

If you have a lower cost than competition

after it starts, then you are better positioned...

If someone could post the text...

Very simple peon thesis on this...

so we watch...LJ

200 target without the market meltdown. As it seems, lying Clown in Chief, loves Tariffs and hates Taxes and going to stick with the tariffs. The only way this tariff will get stopped is the Congress, but that will take time. No way, 200 now with this market meltdown, economic collapse to epic proportions, like we have not seen in 2 decades, it will probably be worse that the Great Recession. Yes I will consider this in the teens and maybe even wait for single digits.

I married my spouse because she is a wonderful person. This does not mean she is always right or I always agree with her.

Learn to separate the person from all their decisions.....many thought Hitler was wonderful in 1932 also.

Okay, if you have all the answers, run……

for President.

He won. He didn’t get his money because he went to Washington like so many have.

I have far more confidence in him than the career politicians that have been their for decades, and that goes for Sen’s McConnell, Graham, Blackburn, as well as Schumer, Durbin, Sanders, etc. This has been a bipartisan disaster. I can name others.

SMCI had accounting issues and though it took a minute, they resolved the issues. Things happen. I get that.

There’s over $9T in debt that matures later this year and the debt ceiling HAS to be raised or we risk default.

We’ve gotta get this crap under control.

SS is by definition a Ponzi scheme since inception. New contributors are paying current benefits. There is no surplus, and the average ROI is around 2%.

You cut out the fraud and the money goes further. I only brought up SS because you had some drama Queen comment about how President Trump hates old people.

Some act, and some take action. A career politician doesn’t have the balls to attempt what President Trump is doing.

No freakin way!

SMCI 40 billion revenue target, 17 billion market cap...

could easily be at $60 now in

a downturn...

no tariffs on chips from Taiwan...

AI servers and equipment made in San Jose,

U.S.A. won't have any tariff costs for

buyers of those...zoom, zoom...

Flipped script for better is how it appears now...

Biggies will let us all know what it's worth

after they have finished reloading...


so we watch.LJ

Everyone wants to predict the worst case. Markets crashing! Look out below! It almost never works out, though sometimes some people end up being right, but not because they knew any more than anyone else.

It might go to the teens, maybe single digits, but it might stabilize right here and go sideways, or go to $48. I expect at some point the market will spike up and leave some folks behind. This tariff thing will not last that long.

Says me!

No social security won't work. And you are the one assuming Trump has a viable master plan.
Based on today's reality, he is failing terribly.

Just say that you want to buy folk's

shares cheap now...

You don't have to be so reckless with

nutty numbers...

200 target then teens...whoops...

SMCI has reversed the hindenburg crap

with the tariff reset on DELL now...

wake up, lighten up, or light up less...


so we watch...LJ

SMCI may be positioned better against competition

now after tariff rift if it lasts...

lol, at what level of field is why the double

bottom test came again on Friday...

the real Trashy double bottom test area...

they just threw everybody out with the baby

in the bathwater this week...

maybe someone can get text from article and

post the info from it...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tech-hardware-stocks-risks-tariffs-9b478386?siteid=yhoof2

so we watch...LJ

Yeah, screw them. I guess that's why he......

ran on no tax on SS benefits.

He's heartless!

And you're amusing!

Have a great weekend!

You think that was an analysis? Nope, just a fact due to the current decisions of one man. I'm sure his approval rating is rising.
Screw all those seniors who saved all their lives and invested conservatively. Who cares about that small group of people known as Baby Boomers.
Who cares that many of them voted for you because you were going to strengthen the economy.

I'm about 85% in money market..........looking

for to bottom fish. It can be converted to cash easily.

The 10 yr is good for a certain mortgage company that has been a "rocket" (rkt) the past couple of days. That's my best girl at the moment.

I held my Energy Transfer which has gotten its ass kicked.

I got a few small positions, but that's about it.

Thanks for your analysis. I was waiting for it on the edge of my seat for it!

Will we get more BLOOD IN THE STREETS next week?

Whatever it takes to get them to the table.

Again, Happy Friday!

I saw the 10 year earlier. Just great for any senior looking for safe income.
Apparently you don't have much money in the market.
Wall Street as a whole is less impressed then you are, but what do they know.

I think things are going as planned.......maybe

better.

See my earlier post from today, and the one I responded to.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=176018806

Also, oil dropping means spending less on the depleted reserves.

AND LOOK AT THE 10 YEAR!

Happy Friday!

Whatcha think? Happy with how things are going the last couple of days? Think maybe he overplayed his hand a bit?

I don't have an issue with Elon.....yet. I think the guy sees the world on a different plane than the rest of us. I've known guys like him before and I really believe he views talking to us is equivalent to us talking to our dogs. However, I don't think he's necessarily out for the good of all mankind.
Trump fired General Haugh yesterday....Are there any advisors Trump will listen to?
BTW, Musk saving money for tax payers is a fine idea. There is no doubt there has been stupid government waste for years. I doubt anyone would deny this, but we also don't know the ramifications yet.
BTW, I think buying all electric is gonna come back and bite you. The last regime allowed the Russians and Chinese to buy up a lot of rare earth mines in the US.
Again, ramifications.

Heck, I even loved Elon before he joined the MAGA movement, my family owned 3 teslas, we sold them with a loss and bought a Rivian instead. I was all for cutting waste and fraud, but not that approach.