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15時間前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 16, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 284.5k, down 18k.
Gold’s upward momentum continued this week, but not before showing signs of fatigue. Up 0.5 percent this week to $2,901/ounce, it has rallied for seven consecutive weeks. The metal ticked $2,608 on December 30.
The yellow metal essentially went parabolic for a month and a half. This likely is coming to an end – not the move itself but the parabolic side to it. This Tuesday – a spinning top session – gold rallied as high as $2,969, but the bulls failed to keep the gains. As a result, a shooting star developed on the weekly. Weakness lies ahead.
Gold remains overbought on several timeframes. Ahead lies a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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2日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 28637. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.50%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. At the moment, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 28045 settling at 29454. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 29045 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 28637. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 29045
Previous... 28045
Tomorrow... 28637
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 29685. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28761 and overhead resistance forming above at 29070. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 29685, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29685 to 28799. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29685 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25596 and 29060. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29685. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 29346 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26970 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Forecast: Gold & U.S. Stock Cycles Update
By: Jim Curry | February 9, 2025
As we move into the year 2025, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the configuration of the time cycles, for both the Gold market - as well as for U.S. stocks.
Gold, Short-Term
For the very short-term, until proven otherwise the upward phase of a dominant 10-day wave is seen as in force in the Gold market, with that cycle shown below:
In terms of time, this 10-day wave is next projected to bottom in the coming days, with any reversal below the 2874.20 figure (April, 2025 contract) being the best confirmation it has peaked. In terms of price, that action would put the 10-day moving average as the ideal magnet, though with the potential for additional weakness through the same.
Stepping back further, of more key focus now is the bigger 72-day wave. As per my last article back in December, this 72-day cycle was confirmed to have bottomed out back in mid-November of last year, and with that was favored to push higher into the mid-January to early-February timeframe - which we are now into.
Here again is our 72-day cycle in Gold:
Once this 72-day wave tops out, its next bottom (as projected by our 72-day detrend indicator) is due around the early-April window, plus or minus. In terms of price, our downside 'reversal point' for this 72-day cycle is currently set at the 2795.80 figure (April, 2025 contract).
With the above said and noted, any push below the 2795.80 figure - if seen at any point going forward - would confirm this 72-day wave to have topped, thus putting the 72-day moving average and lower 72-day cycle band as the expected magnets. This downside reversal point number is moving up every few days, with the most current number always posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.
With that, a countertrend correction with the 10-day cycle - if seen - would be expected to give way to a push back to or above whatever high that forms on the current upward phase. In terms of time, that would be favored to play out into mid-to-late February, which would then be the odds-on favorite to peak our larger 72-day component.
In terms of price, any short-term decline (such as with our aforementioned 10-day cycle) would need to remain above the 2795.80 figure, in order to keep the upward phase of the bigger 72-day cycle intact.
The Mid-Term View for Gold
From the comments made in my last article back in late-December, the assumption had been that the upward phase of our 72-day cycle would end up as countertrend, against the 2825.90 swing top from back in early-October. That peak was seen as our last top for the bigger 310-day wave, which is shown again on the chart below:
With Gold having taken out its early-October peak on the upward phase of our 72-day wave, that action now negates the downward phasing of our 310-day cycle. In other words, this particular cycle either bottomed very early - back in mid-November - or else is seeing some very extended upward phase, something of a rarity.
Adding to the notes above, if we look at our detrend that tracks this 310-day wave, we can see a good divergence having formed, which would support the idea of an extended cycle. Either way, prices can continue to extend higher for now, though - with the position of our smaller 72-day wave - any confirmed turn with that cycle would have decent odds of turning the bigger component.
For the bigger picture, I think the next mid-term buy for Gold will still come from a late-Spring, 2025 bottom, ideally made as close to the lower four-year channel as possible. In terms of patterns, that decline would be favored to end up as countertrend, before giving way to another 20%+ rally into later this year.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the mid-term picture in U.S. stocks, as mentioned in some of my prior articles, the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region.
Here is the smaller 180-day cycle on the SPX:
In terms of time, the next trough for our 180-day wave is projected for April, which is also the general timeframe for a bottom with the 310-day cycle in Gold. In terms of price, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in stocks will take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - and may also provide key mid-term support for the SPX.
The Presidential Cycle
Going further with the above, we are currently in 'post-election' year with the presidential cycle, which suggests a late-February low - followed by another low around the early-April timeframe - which is in line with our assessment with the 180-day time cycle. Here is a chart of the post-election year path:
From a Springtime bottom, the post-election year pattern turns higher into mid-to-late Summer - a rally which could be as much as 17-20% off the Spring bottom, based upon an average rally with our 180-day time cycle. From a July/August peak, the post-election path shows weakness into early-Autumn, before turning higher again into year-end. More on all as we continue to move forward.
Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader
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1週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 302.5k, up 3.1k.
Gold tried to unwind the overbought condition it was in by beginning with Monday’s intraday weakness ticking $2,802, and that was bought. This was a successful test of the prior highs of $2,802 posted on October 30 and $2,803 on January 29. By Friday, the yellow metal ticked $2,911 intraday – a fresh high – to end the session at $2,888/ounce. For the week, it jumped 1.9 percent. This was a sixth consecutive weekly gain.
Momentum is strong, although the daily remains extended. Should weakness develop, gold bugs will be tested if they can defend $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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1週前
NY Gold Futures - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28876 and is trading up about 9.33% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29106 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 28771.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 3rd at 29106, which was up 12 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29106 to 28022. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29106 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29106. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 28456 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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2週前
Gold Retreats After Hitting $2,882 Record High
By: Bruce Powers | February 6, 2025
• Gold retreated after reaching $2,882, signaling a potential pullback as it nears resistance, with $2,790 identified as key support in case of further weakness.
Following a new record high of $2,882 hit during Wednesday session, gold pulled back on Thursday and will likely leave a lower daily high and lower daily low for the day. Yesterday’s high follows the completion of an extended upside target from a rising ABCD pattern where the CD leg of the advance was 161.8% (golden ratio) of the first leg up, labeled AB.
Therefore, the advance in the price of gold during the second leg up has a harmonic relationship with the price change seen in the first leg. Once that happens, a potential pivot level has been identified. Given the subsequent bearish reaction following the $2, 882, it looks like the market recognized the area around the price target. Although it was not a direct hit, as the target was at $2,889, it was close enough given the bearish reaction.
Consolidation or Pullback May be Next
Moreover, the next potential resistance level on the chart is $2,940. That leaves a bit of a gap above the $2,889 price level to the next target. Gold will be in a better position to fill that gap and make a run for the next higher target price once there is a rest of some degree, either taking the form of a deeper pullback or consolidation. Gold has had a strong run rising as much as $300 or 11.6% since completing a swing low at $2,582 (C) in December.
On a relative performance basis, that is the strongest upswing of the prior eight and reflects strong underlying momentum. But it also indicates that at least a temporary high may have been reached, for now. The full upswing, beginning from the November swing low at $2,537 (A), had a gain of as much as $345 or 13.6%.
Further Weakness Indicated Below $2,834
A drop below today’s low of $2,834 will signal further weakness and increase the chance for a deeper pullback. The recent breakout level and prior trend high at 2,790 becomes a potential support area and has a good chance of being tested, at a minimum if a pullback deepens. If support is tested around that price level and it is followed by a bullish reversal, that will be a sign of strength and could end the correction, if it comes.
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2週前
Gold Extends Rally, but Overbought Signals Hint at Pullback
By: Bruce Powers | February 5, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $2,882 before resistance emerged, with overbought conditions signaling a potential pullback. Key support lies at $2,790 and $2,772.
Gold’s bull trend continued to rise on Wednesday as it hit a new record high of $2,882 before encountering resistance. Following that high gold began to pull back intraday and is currently trading near the midpoint of the day’s trading range, which is at 2,861. During Wednesday’s advance gold exceeded potential targets at $2,856 and $2,874, before stalling a little below the next higher target at $2,889.
That price level is the 161.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began from the recent swing low at $2,537 (A). It shows a harmonic relationship between the first (AB) and second (CD) upswings. Once that occurs, the possibility of encountering resistance increases.
Price Reaching Overbought
Certainly, the price of gold looks to have gotten extended and is due for a correction of some degree. Both the intraday pullback today and the completion of an ABCD pattern target, point to that conclusion. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator reached an overbought of 76.50 today, like the 77.24 overbought reading listed at the minor interim swing high from late-September 2024.
Resistance Seen Following Day’s High
Overall, gold showed strength during Wednesday’s advance as it rose beyond lower targets, as noted above. Nonetheless, prices can go only so far before they are due for a price correction in a retracement. To what degree that might occur remains to be seen. And there is little sign of it yet. The upswing from the $2,582 swing low (C) completed a $300 or 11.6% rally as of today’s high at $2,882.
That level of performance exceeds the previous six rallies, which peaked at 8.6%. However, it is interesting to note that as gold was rising out of a base following the October 2023 lows, it did see similar stronger rallies, from 10.6% to 17.8%. Does the current 11.6% advance point to further strong momentum as the next leg up in the long-term bull trend begins?
Key Support Starts at $2,840
Further weakness is likely if there is a drop below today’s low of $2,840. The recent new trend high breakout level at $2,790 will then provide the first more significant potential support area. Also, this week’s low at $2,772 is a potential support level, assuming it is not broken before this week ends.
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2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 1, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 299.4k, down 1.4k.
One more week and one more new high for the yellow metal!
Friday, gold peaked at $2,863 intraday before weakening to close the session at $2,835/ounce, up two percent for the week.
Gold has now rallied for five consecutive weeks. Last week, with Friday’s intraday high of $2,795, gold bugs seriously went after $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). A breakout seemed imminent, and this has happened.
The daily is extended. Immediate support lies just north of $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28350 and is trading up about 7.34% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27948.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 27th at 28629, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28629 to 27320. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28629 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25218 and 28632. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28629. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27678 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Tests Resistance – Will Bulls Push to New Highs?
By: Bruce Powers | January 29, 2025
Gold remains in a tight range near highs, with a breakout above 2,773 signaling strength. Key support lies at 2,702, while targets extend to 2,823.
Gold remained within a small developing consolidation range near the highs of the trend on Wednesday. It also established a higher daily low and a slightly higher daily high for the day, reflecting support, and attempted a breakout above Tuesday’s high at 2,765. Tuesday was an inside day. Nonetheless, today’s price range is relatively narrow, between 2,745 and 2,766, and additional market activity would be useful.
Rise Above 2,773 Shows Strength
Another rise above 2,765 that is followed by an advance above today’s would show strength. But a breakout above Monday’s high of 2,773 would indicate greater confidence that the price of gold may be able to continue strengthen. Of course, the recent high of 2,786 would trigger a continuation of the near-term bull trend with the record high at 2,790 a target. If that high is exceeded, there is a higher target around 2,823. There are two indicators marking that price.
First, it completes a 261.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the October 2023 lows. Further, a more recent ABCD pattern (purple) reaches its 127.2% extended target. After that, the next level indicated as possible resistance is up at 2,856.
Monthly Bull Breakout Set to Confirm
Since the month of January is almost complete, the monthly chart can be considered. A breakout above the December high of 2,726 triggered this month and gold remains above it. Moreover, November’s high of 2,762 also exceeded this month. Therefore, if January ends above that high a bullish breakout on the monthly time frame will be confirmed. That, by itself, provided a strong bullish signal as patterns in the longer-term time frame monthly influence the shorter time frames.
Below 2,731 Could Lead to Test of 20-Day MA
Nevertheless, gold is showing signs of resistance that could yet lead to a pullback. A key level to watch for support in that case would be around the 20-Day MA at 2,702. If that fails, then the 50-Day MA is down at 2,666. Note that a retracement down to the 50-Day line would keep gold above this month’s low of 2,615. The integrity of the bullish monthly signals would remain valid in that case.
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3週前
Gold Key Levels to Watch as the Bull Trend Remains
By: Bruce Powers | January 28, 2025
• Gold trades near record highs, with a breakout above $2,790 targeting $2,823, while support lies at the 20-Day MA at $2,696.
Gold continued to show signs of strength on Tuesday as it traded inside Monday’s price range following a dip on Monday. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade near the highs of the day, currently 2,765, and it is on track to close in a bullish position, in the upper third of the day’s trading range. This could lead to either a deeper pullback or a continuation higher to challenge resistance around the record high of 2,790. Regardless, a bullish trend continuation signal triggered last week on a rally above the prior swing high at 2,726 (B).
Deeper Pullback Would be Health for Trend
Resistance was seen at 2,786 last Friday, which led to yesterday’s pullback to a low of 2,731. Therefore, a drop below that low signals weakness and could lead to a deeper pullback. In that case, the price zone around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,696, is a key trend support indicator. Notice that it recently converged with a small rising trendline, giving it a little added significance.
The 20-Day MA was last reclaimed on January 7 and it was followed by further strength. Since there has not yet been a test of the 20-Day line as support, the 20-Day line becomes a target. But only if there is a signal pointing to likely further selling. A drop below Monday’s low of 2,731 would provide a signal. If the 20-Day line fails, the lower 50-Day MA at 2,663 becomes a target.
First Higher Target at 2,823
On the upside, signs of strength are indicated on a rally above 2,773. Then, a bull trend continuation signal is generated on a breakout above the trend high of 2,786. Subsequently, a decisive breakout above the 2,790 record high points to a first upside target at 2,823. That is the 127.2% extended target for the rising ABCD pattern shown in purple on the chart. A little higher is the 127.2% extended retracement for the most recent correction that ended at the November swing low (A).
Highest Weekly Closing Price Ever
It is important to consider that last week ended with gold closing at its highest weekly closing price ever. This is bullish and is supporting evidence for an eventual continuation to new record highs. Given the significance of resistance around the current record high, it would be healthy for gold to pull back a bit more first. Let’s see what happens.
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3週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 25, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 300.8k, up 21.4k.
Gold bugs are hammering on $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). This Friday, the metal rallied as high as $2,795, subsequently closing at $2,779/ounce, up 1.7 percent for the week. This was the fourth up week in a row.
When gold reached its peak last October, it came in a gravestone doji week. This was then followed by two weeks of downward pressure during which the metal dropped to $2,542 by November 14. This time around, gold is hanging on to its gains – most of it anyway. This bodes well for a breakout in due course.
For now, if the bulls lose $2,750s, there is trendline support from last November’s low at $2,650. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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3週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 25, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27789 and is trading up about 5.22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27948 while it is still trading above last month's high of 27613.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27620.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 20th at 27948, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27948 to 27156. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 25415 made 10 weeks . The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 20th reaching 27948 has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Rallies Toward Record Highs Amid Breakout Potential
By: Bruce Powers | January 24, 2025
• Gold tested its $2,790 record high Friday, with potential pullback risks ahead, but a breakout could target $2,823 and $2,874 in the near term.
Gold continued to move higher on Friday as it rallied to test the record high from late-October at 2,790 before backing off. At the time of this writing the day’s high was 2,786 and trading continues above the prior trend high at 2,762. Nonetheless, the strength or weakness of today’s closing price relative to the day’s trading range should provide a clue as to whether buyers can retain control of the bull trend heading into next week. The low for the day was 2,752 and the halfway mark for the range is 2,769. Otherwise, resistance may continue, leading to a pullback.
Risk of Being Overbought
Keep in mind that gold has been advancing in the current upswing (CD) since the 2,582 (C) swing low. At today’s high gold had advanced by 203.63 points or 7.9% from 2,582. On a percentage basis that gain is slightly above average for five prior sequential upswings that occurred since the beginning of May 2024. Those are measured moves that had gains ranging from 7.08% to 8.65%.
On that basis alone gold may continue to see short-term resistance that leads to a pullback before it clears above the current high. Nonetheless, if a breakout above 2,790 occurs prior to a pullback gold is at risk of losing steam shortly thereafter as upward momentum began to accelerate following the minor interim higher swing low in January and the subsequent reclaim of the 50-Day MA.
Breakout Above 2,790 Targets 2,823
A sustainable rally above 2,790 has a chance of reaching the next higher target that looks to be around the 127.2% extension of the current rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 2,823. The 100% target was hit today at 2,772 and gold plowed right through it. Further up is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the February 12 swing low (also part of a small triangle price structure).
That price area can be watched for signs of resistance along with the 2,874 target that completes a 227.2% extension of an advancing ABCD pattern that starts from the September 2022 swing low. Since the higher price level is derived from a larger pattern (covers more time) it has the potential to be more significant.
Bearish Correction Could Test Support at 20-Day MA
If a correction occurs before new record highs, then key near-term support is at the minor swing low of 2,736 from Thursday. A correction to test support around the 20-Day MA is possible while retaining the bullish price structure. Notice that an uptrend line and the 20-Day line have converged and are marking the same price today at 2,682.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold Record High in Sight as Bullish Momentum is Sustained
By: Bruce Powers | January 23, 2025
• A rally above $2,772 could confirm gold’s bullish trend, though resistance at this level may cause consolidation before targeting the record high at $2,790.
Larger trends and price patterns impact trends and patterns in shorter time frames. Gold broke out above December’s monthly high on Tuesday with a decisive rally above 2,726. That was an inside month breakout reflecting consolidation on the monthly chart.
The long-term bullish monthly trend continuation signal was then further confirmed on Wednesday with another monthly breakout above November’s high of 2,762. Therefore, the market seems to be signaling the demand is improving to the point that the record high of 2,790 may be challenged in the foreseeable future.
Next Target is 2,772
Nevertheless, gold is getting close to reaching its next identified target at 2,772. That price will complete an initial target for a rising ABCE pattern (purple). Both the AB and CD legs up match the price change at that target. Once there is symmetry in price between the two upswings, there is the possibility resistance. Also, a decisive advance above that target would provide a new sign of strength and increase the chance for a continuation of the immediate rally.
Early Session Selloff Brushed Off
On Thursday gold dipped slightly below Wednesday’s low to hit a low for the day at 2,736. Subsequently, buyers took back control leading to an intraday rally. At the time of this writing, gold is set to close strong, in the upper third of the day’s trading range, and near the opening price. There is the possibility of today’s candlestick pattern completing a bullish doji hammer. That would be a bullish pattern following the failed attempt to go lower earlier in the session. It will leave gold in a solid position to push higher.
Bull Signal Above Today’s High at 2,759
A rally above today’s high of 2,759 will trigger a bullish continuation of the trend that then needs further confirmation of strength on a rally above the current trend high at 2,763. Given the potential resistance around the 2,772 target it could stall there and lead to a pullback or consolidation.
If, on the other hand, buying strength remains strong and the 2,772-price level is exceeded with enthusiasm, the record high at 2,790 is at risk of being broken to the upside. It would be healthier for the trend to have a little pullback or consolidation before there is a breakout above the record high. Otherwise, a breakout to new highs risks losing momentum shortly thereafter.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold Bull Run Gains Momentum Amid Monthly Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | January 22, 2025
• With 2,763 high and monthly trend reversals, gold continues its bull run. A pullback may precede a breakout above the record 2,790 price level.
Gold’s bull trend continued Wednesday with a new short-term trend high of 2,763. The day looks likely to end in the green and strong, in the top third of the day’s trading range. It follows a monthly bullish trend reversal signal that triggered yesterday on a rally above the 2,726-daily swing high and monthly high from December.
Yesterday’s closing price was the fifth highest daily closing price historically and the highest close since the 2,790 high from late-October. These are signs of improving demand that could lead to a new record high breakout for gold.
Next Target – 2,772
Nonetheless, gold is fast approaching a higher risk zone that could lead to a retracement given the gains from the 2,582 low (C). It would be healthy for the advance to take a rest and pullback or consolidate in preparation for a breakout attempt above 2,790. The next target zone is derived from a rising ABCD pattern that reaches its first target at 2,772. At that high gold will be up by 194.3 points or 7.5% from the 2,582 low.
This would put the performance of the current upswing around the average of the prior five upswings. The relationship between swings shows price symmetry or similarity. In other words, the chance of hitting resistance that leads to a stall or pullback increases once a similar target distance is approached. Those numbers are approximate and may vary somewhat by price or percentage, depending on the swing.
Double Monthly Bull Breakouts
Tuesday’s rally triggered a breakout of an inside month on the monthly chart as December’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. Moreover, today’s advance took back the 2,762 monthly high from November. Each rise above a prior monthly high is further evidence supporting the bull trend. Having breakouts of two monthly highs in two days shows the strength of demand behind this rally. A daily close above 2,762 will provide further bullish evidence.
The stronger the demand the greater the chance that the long-term bull trend can continue to advance by exceeding the current record high of 2,790. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mean the trend goes straight there. That is why it is important to watch price behavior around key price levels to gauge degrees of supply and demand and potential significance of a price level or range.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold Monthly Breakout Eyes Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | January 21, 2025
• Gold surged above $2,726, confirming a bullish reversal and setting the stage to challenge $2,790, with extended targets pointing toward $2,846 and beyond.
Gold strengthened on Tuesday as it broke out above the 2,726-swing high from December 12 and advanced to a high of 2,746 before stalling. The advance triggered a bullish trend reversal as the December lower swing high was exceeded. Also, gold is on track to end today’s session above that price, at the time of this writing.
If it does so, that will be a stronger close than a close below 2,726. In addition, gold looks likely to end the day strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. Either way, today’s bullish price action sets the stage for gold to challenge the record high of 2,790 that was hit at the end of October. In addition to a swing high breakout, the 78.6% retracement at 2,734 was also breached during today’s rally.
Heading Towards 2,772
The next higher target from chart analysis looks to be around 2,772. That is the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern (purple). At that price the two upswings in the pattern would match and generate a potential pivot. A pullback could follow or a breakout through that price zone if buyers remain in charge. Notice the acceleration in momentum as the angle of ascent for the near-term uptrend increases, along with today’s wide range green candle.
This reflects improving demand that may continue to improve. That could lead to an acceleration in the advance as market participants jump on board following the bullish reversal signal above a prior swing high.
Above Record High Points to 2,846
If gold can get above and stay above the record high of 2,790, it heads towards a target zone at 2,846, which is the 127.2% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern beginning from the February 2024 swing low of 1,984. It is quickly followed by the 227.2% extended target at 2,874 for a rising ABCD pattern that began from September 2022 low. It is also worth watching the rising trendline connecting the August swing low. In junction with other indicators, it can help provide guidance if approached.
Monthly Bullish Reversal Triggered
Finally, today’s bull breakout triggered a monthly reversal as last month’s high of 2,726 was exceeded. December was an inside month. Since the longer time frame takes precedence, a bull trend continuation signal was generated today, which increases the chance of gold reaching new record highs.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.
Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
1月前
Gold Holds Gains Amid Consolidation, Testing Key Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | January 14, 2025
• Despite recent pullback, gold maintains a rising trend, supported by strong demand, key MAs, and potential breakout above swing high resistance at 2,698.
Gold pulled back on Friday after reaching a swing high at 2,698. Resistance was seen following that high, which occurred after a bull breakout above a trendline and the completion of a 78.6% retracement. Despite Monday’s potential bearish reversal day and a weak close, gold held above Monday’s low of 2,657 on Tuesday and consolidated in a relatively narrow range. The high was 2,675 and the low 2,659, at the time of this writing.
Consolidation Day
Since sellers did not retain control today, there is no follow through to Monday’s selling. Overall, price action remains near the highs of a rising trend and testing resistance around a trendline. Until there is bearish follow through the potential for an upside breakout remains. Although a rise above today’s high may show strength, it may not signal enough demand to take gold higher. That should be clearer on a rise above Monday’s high at 2,698, and further still above the swing high at 2,698.
Above 2,698 Shows Strength
If gold is to make a bull breakout attempt above the 2,698-swing high, then a deeper pullback first may assist in strengthening demand around key support levels. Both the 50-Day MA at 2,645 and the 20-Day MA at 2,637 identify possible support. And, although a decline below the lower 20-Day line would be bearish, that would really depend on what happens next around the small uptrend line. That line also represents possible support levels and can be used as a guide for identifying signs of strength or weakness.
Weekly Bullish Sentiment
Bullish patterns in the weekly chart (not shown) support an eventual resolution to the upside for gold. Last week’s advance triggered a breakout to a four-week high. The week ended strong, with gold ending near the highs of the week’s trading range and at a seven-week weekly closing high. Moreover, last week’s strength followed a successful test of support around the 20-Week MA over several weeks.
It shows strong underlying demand for gold and retention of the rising trend beginning from October 2023. That was when the 20-Week MA was last reclaimed. In general, once price is rejected to the upside from the price zone of the 20-Week MA there is an increased chance for a decisive advance. Similar behavior was seen following the February 2024 swing low and August 2024 swing low, as well as the November swing low.
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