DiscoverGold
22時間前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 5, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 238.4k, down 11.4k.
Gold has been rallying since December 30th last year when it ticked $2,608. Going into this week, it had rallied for 12 out of 13 weeks. If this week’s highs held, the positive momentum would have extended to 13 out of 14, but that was not to be. The yellow metal reversed lower after tagging $3,164 on Thursday, and the reversal took place in a risk-off week. For the week, it fell 1.4 percent to $3,040/ounce and was up 2.6 percent at Thursday’s fresh all-time high.
Before this week’s reversal, gold has remained extended on nearly all timeframes. It just about went parabolic for over a year. In February last year, the yellow metal touched $1,984. Unwinding probably lies ahead.
In the event of selling pressure, a lot depends on if gold bugs will be able to defend $3,000 and $2,940s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
22時間前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 5, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30354 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Up to now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32016 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28663. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 31503.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30475 and support forming below at 30082. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 31st at 32016, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32016 to 30327. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32016 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 27200 and 30882. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 32016. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30827 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 29231 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
2日前
Gold Faces Bearish Reversal After Record High, Key Support Tested
By: Bruce Powers | April 4, 2025
• Gold’s rally reversed sharply, confirming bearish signals and testing key support levels, with the potential for deeper declines if the 20-Day MA fails to hold.
Gold was not immune to growing uncertainty related to the developing trade war. On Friday, it continued to decline following a new record high of $3,168 that was hit on Thursday. Thursday concluded with a bearish reversal candle exhibiting a broad range. Given bearish follow-through today, that pattern proved to be prescient. Sellers dominated throughout Friday’s trading session and remained in charge at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the lows of the day, which is currently $3,106.
Will 20-Day Moving Average Support Hold?
So far, support has been seen near the lows of the day but there is no sign of strength that could lead to a rally. However, the day’s lows are around potential support represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3,028. If support around the 20-Day line continues to hold, there is the potential for at least a bounce. Today is the first test of support around the 20-Day MA since it was reclaimed on March 12.
That first test can result in a reversal. However, A failure of the line to hold as support would provide another bearish signal. The next key potential support area is a little below the moving average at $2,999. That price range is derived from a previous higher swing low and the 50% retracement level. Moreover, there is a rising trendline around that price zone as well.
Resistance Holds at Top of Channels
Gold failed to break out above two rising parallel trend channels recently, one outlined on the chart in purple and the other with blue lines. Thursday’s rally was a new trend high and the fourth day that resistance was seen near the top line of the small blue channel. Also, today’s decline saw a definitive breakdown below the top purple channel line. A failed breakout through the top of the channel could eventually lead to a test of support near the lower end of the channel.
Downside Risk Dominates
Regardless of whether gold swings that far, the potential for further downside from current levels due to the signs of a bearish reversal from of two channels, raises downside risk. But first gold would need to fall below the 20-Day MA, then the 50% retracement. After that it should head towards the $2,961 price area, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Since gold would be below a rising trendline at that point, the 50-Day MA at $2,938 could surely be approached as well. Finally, this week is set to end with a potential bearish weekly shooting start candlestick pattern. A drop below $3,016 would be needed to trigger the pattern.
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DiscoverGold
4日前
Gold XAU/USD Remains Near Highs – Will Bulls Extend the Rally?
By: Bruce Powers | April 2, 2025
• Despite forming a potential reversal pattern, gold holds key support. A breakout above $3,153 could extend gains, while a breakdown may target $3,077.
Gold maintained signs of upward momentum on Wednesday, as the risk of a bearish pullback increased at the same time. A new record high of $3,149 was established on Tuesday, with the day ending with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. But the pattern is not valid until there is a drop below the Tuesday’s low of $3,101.
That did not happen today as Wednesday’s price range at the time of this writing was $3,108 to $3,136, which is an inside day. It is interesting to note that there is the possibility that gold closes the day’s session at its highest daily closing price ever. That would happen with a daily close above Monday’s closing price of $3,124.
Retains Channel Breakout
Notice that there is a higher daily low today and that support for the past two days was at a prior top trend channel line (purple). That line is the top of a long-term channel starting from February 2024. Signs of support at a prior resistance line is a sign of strengthening.
Nonetheless, what happens next is what matters. Is the bull channel breakout sustained or is it followed by a decline back into the channel. There is also a smaller rising parallel trend channel (blue) on the chart marking resistance around Tuesday’s high. That high also completed a 261.8% retracement of the bearish correction begun in the second half of February at $3,153.
Above $3,153 is $3,170
Especially if gold can stay above the top purple channel line, it has a chance to continue towards higher potential targets. Above the 261.8% retracement level is a small target range from $3,170 to $3,177, consisting of the 250% retracement of the October 2024 decline, and the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern, respectively.
Bearish Shooting Start Triggers Below $3,101
On the downside, a drop below Wednesday’s low of $3,108 puts Tuesday’s low of $3,101 at risk of failing as well. Gold would then be back below the top channel line and likely heading towards a test of support around the prior pivot around $3,077, and the recent high at $3,058. Further down is potential support at the 20-Day MA, now at $3,012.
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DiscoverGold
5日前
Gold Record High Challenges Resistance, Bearish Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | April 1, 2025
• Gold’s rally stalled at key resistance near $3,153. A bearish shooting star pattern suggests a pullback unless support holds, with upside potential extending to $3,170.
Gold extended its bull trend on Tuesday to reach a new record high of $3,149. Subsequently, resistance was seen, leading to an intraday pullback. At the time of this writing, gold is trading weak, in the lower half of the day’s $3,101 to $3,149 trading range. And it may end the day in a similar position. If it does, a bearish shooting start candlestick pattern will be formed, leaving gold prone to a deeper pullback. However, it is not a valid pattern unless there is a breakdown below Tuesday’s low of $3,101.
Price Vibrates Within Trend Channels
Is there significance to the day’s high of $3,149 that is supportive of a pullback? That high happens to be near resistance represented by a top parallel trend channel line (blue) and a $3,153 target, The target is the 261.8% extension of the retracement from the February decline (BC). Although the top blue channel line was initially exceeded earlier in the day’s trading session, the subsequent bearish reaction indicates that resistance has been seen around that price area.
The blue channel line represents a rising channel that is the second and shorter of two channels that are outlined on the enclosed chart. The larger channel is outlined with purple lines and the shorter with blue lines. A rising parallel channel can help spot potential support or resistance as a trend progresses higher.
Weakening Momentum
Yesterday, the upper boundary of the larger channel was exceeded to the upside, establishing today’s support level at that line. In other words, prior resistance has been recognized as support, which can be a bullish sign. That advance also triggered a potential bull breakout of the larger channel. It is a potential breakout as it needs to be sustained and followed by further signs of strength. So far, that is not the case and therefore today’s bearish behavior may lead to a failed channel breakout. If the bearish shooting star triggers, initial potential support areas look to be around $3,077 and $3,058.
Bullish Continuation Targets $3,170
There remains a possibility that the larger channel breakout is retained by support continuing around or above the top purple line. However, the breakout of the channel is a sign of potential overbought conditions, along with the overbought position of the relative strength index (RSI). If that is the case then a more specific test of the $3,153 target could occur, gold extends higher towards the next target of $3,170.
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DiscoverGold
7日前
GLD SPDR Gold Trust completed a long-term cup and handle breakout, hitting its measured move near $283...
By: TrendSpider | March 30, 2025
• Gold has surged past $3,000 as central banks accelerate reserve buying, global tensions escalate, and the dollar softens. On the chart, GLD completed a long-term cup and handle breakout, hitting its measured move near $283. At the same time, the RSI Ensemble Indicator is flashing overbought conditions, hinting at a possible short-term pause. Still, with demand strong and uncertainty rising, gold's rally may be far from over.
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DiscoverGold
7日前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 29, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 25, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 249.8k, down 8.1k.
As unreal as it may sound, gold has now rallied for 12 out of the last 13 weeks. This week, it added a couple of percent to $3,082/ounce, closing near Friday’s session high $3,086. The yellow metal has been rallying since ticking $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, gold is extended on nearly all timeframes. It has just about gone parabolic for a year now. In February last year, the yellow metal touched $1,984. Gold bugs have done an excellent job of sustaining the up momentum, aided by breakouts followed by successful retests. This Friday, gold broke out of short-term resistance at $3,050s. In the event of selling pressure near term, this is the one to watch for now. After that lies $3,000 and $2,960s-70s.
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getmenews
1週前
Here's the problem with a short call at this stage,
For every $4,000 value per ounce, it can erase 1T of debt, "Gold is only $3118 today 3/30325",
Current Debt is 36T x the above number would value Gold at?
If I'm a foreign debt holder, BTC isn't even on my radar, if so, is BTC headed to 16K before it can stabilize?
At time of printing, looking at SLV, it appears it is undervalued by at least 100%,
Nice day
DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Extends Gains, Eyes $3,125 Amid Strong Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | March 28, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $3,087, confirming strong bullish momentum, with investors eyeing resistance levels at $3,125 and $3,177 for potential further gains.
Gold continued its advance on Friday, reaching a new record high of $3,087. Therefore, a target zone around $3,080, derived by the confluence of several Fibonacci price levels, was exceeded, but only slightly. A daily close today above that price level will be slightly more bullish than a close below it. At the time of this writing gold continues to trade near the highs of the day and looks likely to close in a bullish position, in the upper third of the day’s price range.
Higher Targets in Sight
A decisive rally above today’s high will trigger a continuation of the bullish trend. Gold would then be heading up into potential resistance indicated by a top trend channel line. However, other than the trendline, the next higher target shows around $3,125. It is derived from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the December interim swing low. A little higher from there is the 261.8% extension of the bearish correction begun from the late-October swing high. That price area is followed by a minor confluence zone around $3,169.
Third Weekly Bull Pattern
This week is the third consecutive week of higher weekly highs and higher lows, that began after two weeks of consolidation and the breakout of an inside week. The high prior to consolidation ended seven consecutive weeks of higher highs and lows. Adding a rising ABCD pattern to the low of December 16 and including the low of the most recent pullback low on March 11, estimates a potential initial target from the pattern at $3,177. Keep in mind that as the bull trend continues to advance there is the potential for an eventual runaway move.
Bullish Monthly Close Likely
Since the month of March has only one more trading day, it looks likely that it will leave gold in a very bullish position on the long-term time frame. Is this a prelude of what is to come or a sign that the price of gold has gone too far, too fast? For now, the expectation is for higher price. Therefore, intraday weakness will likely be used by investors and traders to add to positions or open new positions in the precious metal. However, a sustained drop below today’s low of $3,054 could start to change that.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 29, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 31143 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Factually, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 31244 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 30550.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 24th at 31244, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 31244 to 30077. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 31244 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 31244. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 30548 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Precious Metal Poised for Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | March 27, 2025
• Gold's surge to a new high of $3,060 underscores its bullish momentum, with a close above $3,058 confirming a trend continuation.
It looks like gold is ready to head higher rather than establishing a deeper bearish correction first. Gold rallied to a new record high of $3,060 on Thursday and it is set to close in a bullish position, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range. The rally followed the low for the day at $3,033. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the highs of the day. A daily close above the prior high at $3,058 will confirm the trend continuation breakout signal and more so if the week completes with gold above that price level.
Pointing Higher
The next higher target for gold is at $3,079, defined by the confluence of several Fibonacci levels. And it certainly can keep rising given today’s trend continuation signal. Following that price zone there is an early 78.6% target for the CD leg of a rising ABCD pattern at $3,125. Otherwise, watch the area around the rising trend channel line as it may mark a resistance area. After that the next confluence zone is around $3,148 and $3,154.
Top Channel Line May Be Tested
Gold’s behavior around the lower top trend channel line should be telling as it represents the top of a large ascending parallel trend channel from a low in October 2023. The larger the pattern, the more significant the price level may be. There is also a shorter and current trend channel on the chart highlighted in green. The top line from that channel is higher than the larger channel line. Notice that the $3,125 price level could be reached even if resistance was seen at the initial channel line. It will depend on how the angle of ascent for the advance.
Daily Close Above $3,057 Confirms Breakout
Regardless of the above bullish signs, a daily close above $3,057 is needed to confirm the breakout. Gold would need to fall below today’s low of $3,018 before giving a bearish signal. The 20-Day MA marks a key trend support area and will continue to do so if gold continues higher. Despite the possibility that the price is getting more extended, a projection from the closest ABCD pattern (not shown) has an initial target at $3,177.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Consolidates Near All-Time High, Key Support Levels Eyed
By: Bruce Powers | March 26, 2025
• Gold continues consolidating near record highs, with support at $2,999. A breakdown below key levels could shift momentum toward further downside.
Gold consolidated for a third day in a row on Wednesday and it will likely end the session with a relatively narrow inside day. The consolidation range runs from last Friday’s low of $2,999 to Tuesday’s high at $3,036. Each day’s price range for this week has been inside the range from last Friday.
This reflects continued demand as the consolidation pattern as the price of gold has held up not much lower than the recent all-time high at $3,057. On the weekly chart, a relatively narrow inside week has formed, reflecting consolidation on that time frame.
Weekly Bull Pattern
Last week’s low was $2,982 and it is part of the trend structure of higher weekly lows, and therefore a potential support area. If the current weekly uptrend pattern of higher weekly lows is to be retained, support for the pullback would need to be seen at or above that price area. Nevertheless, there is potential support a little lower starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,971.
Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising, and it rose above the prior trend high of $2,956 today. The 20-Day line represents a key potential support zone following the reclaim of the line on March 12. It is now at $2,959. This pullback would be the first test of the 20-Day MA as support since then. Since it is also associated with other key initial price levels, there is a good chance that support is seen.
Intraday Pattern is Bearish
Although the short-term consolidation may continue to evolve a while longer, a drop below $2,999 will signal a continuation of the decline. Further insight is provided by the 1-Hour intraday chart (not shown). It shows a breakdown from a head and shoulders topping pattern last week, followed by two successful tests of resistance around the neckline of the pattern this week.
And there is a parallel trend channel or bear flag type pattern below the neckline. Lines for both the neckline and bottom of the channel can be seen on the enclosed daily chart. Therefore, a dip below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 may provide a sign of weakness that could lead to a drop below $2,999.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Short-Term Strength Tested Amid Key Fibonacci Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 25, 2025
• Gold hit resistance at $3,036 and reversed intraday, suggesting uncertainty between a bullish breakout above $3,047 or a deeper correction below $2,999.
Gold rallied into resistance at $3,036 on Tuesday as it retraced the recent small decline. A 61.8% retracement was completed at $3,043 before resistance was seen and gold turned back down intraday. The low for the day was $3,007 gold is set to establish a higher high and higher low for the day. At the time of this writing, gold is at risk of closing in a relatively weak position, below the halfway point for the day’s trading range. That would be at $3,021.64.
Tuesday’s Price Range Has Key Price Levels
Following a new record high of $3,058 reached last Thursday, gold dropped to a low of $2,999 on Friday. That remains the low of the bearish pullback so far, which is not much. Near the record high for gold is the 200% extended retracement of the late-October bearish correction at $3,043. There looks to be two basic scenarios now developing in gold.
Either the bull trend continues towards a higher target, or a bearish correction continues. A higher daily high and higher low today showed short-term strength following a very minor decline. But a bearish reversal intraday at the 61.8% retracement and subsequent decline intraday suggests the possibility that a continuation of the pullback may follow.
Above $3,058 Targets $3,080
A rise above today’s high of $3,036 will show strength but gold would need to get above last Friday’s high of $3,047 before there is an indication that gold may challenge the recent high before a deeper pullback. If gold can subsequently exceed the record high it should have a chance to approach the next higher target around $3,080, which shows confluence of a couple Fibonacci levels. In addition, there is a top trend channel line (green highlight) that may present resistance a little above the higher price target.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day MA Support
On the downside, a drop below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 indicates a likely deeper pullback while that is signaled on a drop below Friday’s low and the weekly low at $2,999. Downside initial targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,972 and the prior trend high at $2,956. Notice that the 20-Day MA has converged with that prior high and it continues to rise. The 20-Day line is at $2,955 and it also presents an important short-term pullback target.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Cycle Update: U.S. Stocks Forming Key Low
By: Jim Curry | March 23, 2025
As mentioned in a prior article, the last correction of significance was due to play out with our 72-day time cycle, which ended up confirming a very early low - doing so with the late-February tag of 2844.10 (April, 2025 contract). With that, this wave is now seen as pushing higher overall into May, but with an in-between dip currently in force, coming from the smaller-degree cycles.
Gold, Short-Term
For the short-term picture, the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles are seen as heading slightly lower, with the next smaller-degree trough expected to come from these two waves. Shown below is the smaller 10-day component:
In terms of price, there is the potential for a drop back to the 10 and 20-day moving averages in the coming days, as these waves bottom out - with the lower 20-day average seen as key short-term support.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
Stepping back, the upward phase of our larger 72-day cycle is deemed to be in force, ideally pushing higher into May, plus or minus. Shown below is that 72-day wave:
If the upward phase of this 72-day cycle is to remain intact, then the next short-term decline with the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles would be favored to end up as countertrend, holding above the 2882.50 figure (April, 2025 contract) - their most recent bottom.
Stepping back then, a countertrend dip with the 10 and 20-day waves would be favored to give way to higher highs on the next swing up. In terms of price, the 3100 figure (April, 2025 contract) would be an ideal magnet to the next rally phase of these waves, with the same acting as a key resistance level, plus or minus.
Going further, adding weight to the idea of 3100 as a potential magnet - and a key resistance level - is the intersection of the extrapolated 34 and 72-day upper cycle channels, shown on the next chart:
Adding to the notes above, support to the current short-term downward phase with the 10 and 20-day cycles would be at or near the rising lower 34-day cycle channel - which is currently around the 2960's - not too far from the aforementioned 20-day moving average for Gold.
Stepping back further, as mentioned in our Gold Wave Trader report, a statistical analysis of the bigger 72-day cycle suggests the potential for an eventual push up to 3185-3240 into May, though an in-between correction could come from that 3100 figure.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day cycle in Gold, there is a larger 310-day wave, which sets the direction for the mid-term trend:
With the January break to higher highs for the bigger swing (i.e., taking out the October, 2024 peak), the upward phase of this 310-day wave is seen as extended, though does have some potential to peak with the current upward phase of the smaller 72-day cycle.
In terms of price, we do have a key number with this 310-day cycle, which is the 2844.10 swing low from February. This number needs to hold any near-term downside going forward, in order to keep the 310-day cycle's extended upward phase intact.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the U.S. stock market, as mentioned in some of my prior articles the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region - before topping, and giving way to a sharp decline into this Spring.
Here again is the smaller 180-day cycle on the S&P 500:
In terms of time, the trough for our 180-day wave has been projected for April of this year, but with a larger plus or minus variance in either direction - due to the size of the 180 and 360-day waves.
As mentioned in prior articles, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in U.S. stocks would take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - which has obviously been met with the sharp decline off the mid-February peak. Since we are now below this 200-day moving average, it will also act as a first level of resistance.
With the above said and noted, the next low (and rally) of significance is expected to come from the 180 and 360-day waves in U.S. stocks, which are projected to bottom this Spring (i.e., April, plus or minus). Shown below is a combination forecast, from these 180 and 360-day cycles:
From a statistical inference with our smaller 180-day wave, there is the potential for a rally of some 17-20% off the next 180 and 360-day low, playing out into later this year. However, this will depend on whether the current correction phase of these waves ends up as countertrend, holding above the 5119.26 SPX CASH figure - the August, 2024 low - the last trough for our 180-day cycle.
In terms of price, it is too early to confirm an upside reversal point for these 180 and 360-day cycles, though one should ideally develop at some point. If triggered, it will be noted in our Market Turns report, which tracks the U.S. stock market; stay tuned.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 257.9k, up 21.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal. Gold added another 1.3 percent this week to $3,021/ounce, with Thursday registering a fresh intraday high of $3,057. This was an 11th up week in the last 12. Gold touched $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, the metal remains overbought. In the event unwinding of this condition begins, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling. Gold struggled at that range for two weeks last month before slightly coming under pressure and then bottoming on February 28th. The resistance was taken care of seven sessions ago.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30214 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 30652 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30171 and overhead resistance forming above at 30475. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 17th at 30652, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30652 to 29914. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30652 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30652. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30405 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27917 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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BottomBounce
2週前
The ongoing gold price rally represents a dire warning for the future position of the U.S. dollar in international markets, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Former CEO of PIMCO and current president of Queens’ College, Cambridge.
“I think the gold issue is really important,” El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC rate announcement. “You've heard me argue here [that] people cannot escape the dollar as a reserve currency, but they can start slowly doing two things. One is building pipes around it, and two, changing the asset allocation to include a little bit of other things. And gold is one of the other things.”
“This should be flashing yellow in Washington here, that if gold continues to go up, regardless of all this, it's broken down all its historical correlations,” he added. “There's something going on about the dollar internationally, and that's something that they have to take really seriously.” $GLD
DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Rally Slows as Overbought Risks Emerge
By: Bruce Powers | March 20, 2025
• Gold’s strong weekly close suggests continued bullish momentum, but short-term risks remain if support at $3,026 fails.
Gold showed signs of slowing momentum on Thursday following a new record high of $3,058. And it has established another new daily high and daily low thereby keeping the daily uptrend structure intact. It showed strength by reaching a new record high and rising further above a price resistance zone that ended at $3,043. But it is at risk of completing the day in the red, below the opening price of $3,058, and at a lower daily closing price.
Pattern of Rising Closing Prices
Since the current leg of the rally began following a minor pullback to $2,880, now an interim swing low, each new day ended higher than the closing price of the prior day, except for one. That is a pattern that might change if Thursday’s trading session ends at a price below Wednesday’s closing price of $3,023. Nonetheless, the pattern of higher lows takes precedence, and it remains along with the pattern of higher daily highs.
Parallel Channels
There are two rising parallel trend channels shown on the chart. One is highlighted and the other shown with two rising blue parallel lines. The top of the channels provides an approximation of where signs of resistance may be seen. The top line of the larger channel is now lower and therefore would be approached next. Notice that it is crossing a small confluence zone around $3,080 today. That confluence zone marks the next higher target area. The lower channel line adds to its potential significance as a resistance zone.
Near Term Support at $3,026
Irrespective of the possibility of gold reaching higher targets before a pullback, a drop below today’s low of $3,026 might change that. It would be a sign of short-term weakness, but what happened next would be more important. For example, is the decline continuing or is there a quick recovery and rising prices? The price channels can assist in identifying oversold and overbought areas. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator is in overbought condition as a top channel line is approached.
Likely Bullish Weekly Pattern
With one more day to the week, gold is on track to end the week in the top quarter of the period’s trading range. That would show strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame than the daily. If this occurs, then it would seem the next higher target zone may have a better chance of being reached next week.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Hits Another Record High
By: Bruce Powers | March 19, 2025
• Gold surged to a new record high, breaking key resistance at $3,043, but may face overbought conditions that could lead to a pullback.
Gold reached its fourth new record high in five days on Wednesday, rising to $3,052. A new higher daily high and higher daily low will be established and a relatively narrow range day. The low for the day was $3,023. Strength will be confirmed by the closing price for Wednesday. At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it is on track to have its highest ever daily closing price today. That will leave it poised for a possible continuation higher.
Resistance Zone Busted
In addition to continued bullish performance, today’s advance busted through a potential resistance zone that ended around $3,043. A daily close above that price level would provide another piece of bullish evidence for the trend. Once one price pivot is busted the next level becomes a potential target. The next higher price zone on the chart shows a potential price target around $3,078. That target is the 261.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began in November of last year. Notice that the target is also around potential resistance near two top trend channel lines. They can be watched as well since the $3,078 price level is nearby.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
Regardless of the potential for bullish continuation in the near-term, the price of gold is getting extended and due for a pullback or rest day or two, if not more. It remains to be seen whether a breakout through the $3,043 price zone will prevail or whether resistance will be seen before much more of an advance is seen. This week is set to be the third consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low, thereby establishing the weekly uptrend. Since last week’s high was $3,005, a weekly closing price above that high will confirm a bull trend breakout on the weekly time frame.
Support Levels
Today’s low of $3,023 is near-term support and weekly support is $2,982. A move through either of today’s price levels should help determine the next direction for gold. Rising trend channels are shown on the chart as they can assist in identifying when an asset may be overbought or oversold and targets. As with many consolidation patterns, once price is rejected from one boundary line of the pattern there is the possibility that price will eventually test the other side. Since the top two rising trend channels show upper boundary lines higher than current prices, the top lines become potential targets.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Hits Record High, Eyes $3,043 Resistance Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | March 18, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $3,038, maintaining strong momentum. A breakout above $3,043 could push prices higher, while below $2,999 signals potential weakness.
Gold ascended to a new record high of $3,038 on Tuesday. It continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and could easily go higher before the end of the day’s trading session. Nonetheless, it is on track to close in a bullish position, near the highs of the day. A potential resistance zone was entered earlier in the day, but gold busted right through all potential resistance levels and is now challenging the top area of the price range that goes to $3,043.
If that price level is exceeded with conviction, gold will have a chance to reach the next higher target zone around $3,078. Notice that there is also a top trend channel line above current prices and on the way to the next potential resistance zone.
Strong Upward Momentum
Strong upward momentum was exhibited today by the relatively wide trading range and full green candlestick pattern. Buyers took control at the opening of the day’s session, and they remain in charge as the end of Tuesday’s session approaches. This doesn’t mean that gold will keep rising before a pullback, but it certainly could. As noted, a rise above today’s high will need to contend with potential resistance around the top of a previously identified price range at $3,043. If that high is not exceeded either a rest day that takes the form of an inside day could occur, or the beginning of a bearish pullback could begin.
Near-term Support at $2,999
A drop below today’s low of $2,999 would signal weakness and a likely deeper pullback to test support levels. Key potential support levels are at the prior high of $2,956, followed by the 20-Day MA at $2,931 along with a previous interim swing high at $2,930. Since two indicators are marking a similar potential support area, that area should be given added significance if it is approached.
Bullish on All Time Frames
Gold is bullish on all time frames and there is uncertainty in the global economic backdrop. Nonetheless, despite being overbought on the RSI gold could certainly go higher if additional bullish signals are triggered. Moreover, there is the possibility of an accelerated rally at some point given growing economic uncertainly. With that in mind, the top trend channel line noted above may provide added insight if it is approached.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold $GLD - $3000 Magnet Hit. Now stretching for my $3,050. Target...
By: Sahara | March 18, 2025
• $GOLD $GLD - $3000 Magnet Hit
Now stretching for my $3,050. Target...
Streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is climbing out of the gate this morning, up 4.3% at $957.12, after landing an upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" at MoffettNathanson. The brokerage also hiked its price target by $250 to $1,000, an 8.9% upside to Friday's close of $918, citing the company's ability to enhance engagement monetization.
Over the past 12 months Netflix stock has climbed 55%, though its shorter-term performance has struggled. Since the start of 2025 the equity has inched 5% higher, with its most recent pullback captured by the ascending 120-day moving average. Today's pop puts the shares even closer to their Feb. 14 record high of $1,064.50, and on pace for their best day since Jan. 22.
Heading into today analyst sentiment was split. Despite a prolific market cap, there is still ample room for further upgrades, with 13 of the following analyst sporting a tepid "hold" or "sell" recommendation. Bull notes from a renewed bounce off the aforementioned trendline could keep the wind at the equity's back.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Three Reasons to Consider Gold
By: David Keller | March 14, 2025
• Gold has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in 2025.
• Gold prices remain in a primary uptrend, with our Market Trend Model reading bullish on all time frames.
• Gold stocks are outperforming physical gold, and could represent a "catch up" trade going into Q2.
Even with an impressive run of relative performance thus far in 2025, some investors still remain skeptical of gold's uptrend. Let's look at the performance of gold through three different angles, all using the best practices of technical analysis.
Gold Has Dramatically Outperformed in 2025
Whether you think gold has merit as a store of value, as a safe haven, or for no reason at all, there is no denying that gold has registered much stronger returns than stocks so far in 2025.
The S&P 500 index is now down about 4.0% for the year, even with Friday's strong finish to the week. The Roundhill Big Tech ETF (MAGS) is down 12.4%, while the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 is down about 6.2%. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), meanwhile, is up another 13.7% in 2025 after an exceptionally strong 2024.
There have been a number of times over my career where people have pushed back when gold is doing well. They have claimed that it's just an anomaly, or that it shouldn't go higher because of some particular reason. My answer is always to bring up the chart and remind us both, "The market doesn't care what we think!"
Gold Prices Remain in a Primary Uptrend
Let's break down gold's outperformance in greater detail using a daily chart of GLD. At a time when many stocks and ETFs have broken below moving average support, gold stands out as remaining above two upward-sloping moving averages.
GLD has featured two clear consolidation phases since the end of 2023, one from April to July of 2024, and the other from October through December 2024. In both cases, the ETF bounced off price support a number of times before eventually resolving these patterns to the upside. Consolidations are very common in long-term bullish phases. What's important is that the uptrend continues after the price exits the range, as we've often seen recently with GLD.
We can also apply our proprietary Market Trend Model to gold prices, which can help us to better compare the trend in gold to other ETFs and indexes. We can see that the GLD is currently bullish on all three time frames, compared to the S&P 500, which is now bearish on the short-term and medium-term time frames. When stocks are in a confirmed downtrend, I prefer to look for things that remain in primary uptrends, and gold fits the bill.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 15, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 11, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 236.1k, down 7.2k.
Gold bugs forced another breakout on Thursday. The metal struggled at $2,960s-70s for two weeks before coming under pressure a tad. This Thursday, gold broke out of this hurdle to cross $3,000 intraday. Come Friday, in a long-legged doji session, it printed a new intraday high of $3,017 before closing at $3,001/ounce. For the week, the yellow metal added three percent. Since ticking $2,608 on December 30th, this was the 10th up week in 11.
In the sessions ahead, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 30171. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 10 trading sessions and there is a potential to move up for another 9 days. This market is trading above our normal trading envelope which resides at 29845 suggesting it is strong and still in a breakout position. Additionally, this market is very strong while our projected overhead resistance stands at 30263 and 30394.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Wed. Jun. 4, 2025. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 29704.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 10th at 30171, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30171 to 28825. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30171 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30171. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 28842 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Continues Its Strong Rally for the Week
By: Christopher Lewis | March 14, 2025
• The gold market continues to look very strong, as we have now touched the $3000 level. This is a market that continues to see a lot of interest at the moment, as the world worries about geopolitical issues, and of course, tariff wars.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold markets initially pulled back just a bit during the early part of the week to break down below the $2,900 level but have since shot straight up in the air. This was a breakout of a small bullish flag that suggests that we could go as high as $3,300. And I do think that is more likely than not going to be what happens. That being said, we are hanging around the $3,000 level. So don’t be surprised at all if we see a little bit of a pullback in the short term in order to collect profit, that type of thing. Also, there are typically a lot of options traders in this general vicinity, and many traders have been involved in gold for some time now.
So, this is a scenario where there are plenty of value hunters underneath willing to take advantage of it. And I do think that the geopolitical and trading concerns around the world continue to make the gold markets very attractive to protect wealth. So, I’m looking to buy on dips, but if we were to break above the $3,010 level, then I think we’re just going to continue ripping to the upside to the $3,300 level. The $3,300 level, of course, will be attractive as a target for those who were paying close attention to this bullish flag. I have no interest whatsoever in shorting gold anytime soon as the longer-term trend is very obvious at this point in time.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold Hits Record High, Eyes $3,004 on Strong Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $2,985, signaling strong bullish momentum. A close above $2,982 could drive prices higher, with $3,004 as the next target.
Bullish momentum in gold accelerated on Thursday as it broke out to a new record high of $2,985 before stalling. Trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and gold could go higher before the end of today’s trading session. An initial new high target zone from $2,978 to $2,982 was reached and exceeded slightly, a sign of strength.
A strong daily close in the upper third of the day’s trading range will keep gold in a position to continue higher. The start of the initial target zone at $2,978 was derived from a rising ABCD pattern, while the 127.2% extended target for the pattern is higher at $3,004. Nevertheless, there is an interim target at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish correction begun from the February peak.
Multiple Bullish Indications
Keep in mind that targets are all potential prices if certain things happen. For gold, a daily close above the $2,982 level shows strength that could lead to further upside in the near term. Today’s bull breakout was decisive and showed strong upward momentum. Moreover, a bull breakout of an inside week triggered this week, as well as a bullish monthly signal.
The last advance following a bull breakout of monthly consolidation in March of last year, was followed by a seven month advance until the recent $2,790 high. Although that might not happen this time, it shows the potential for higher prices. Also, bullish indications show the potential for a new phase to the uptrend. This means that pullback lower could lead to new entry setups to take advantage of the continuation of the rising long-term trend.
If Pullback, Could Test $2,956 Support
The reclaim of the 20-Day MA yesterday and successful test of support of the line with the low of the day, prepared the launch. A new high breakout just began and a new rally above the 20-Day line. Further, during the recent bearish correction the 20-Day went flat over the past week or so, but it did not turn down. It is now starting to turn up again. If a decline comes before new highs, key potential support levels, marked by the confluence of price levels on the chart, are around $2,956, $2,945, and a range from $2,936 to $2,930.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold Breaks Above $2,930, Eyes New Record Highs
By: Bruce Powers | March 12, 2025
• Gold’s rally positions it for a record high attempt, with $2,990 in sight, yet bearish divergence in RSI suggests caution as underlying momentum slows.
Gold retained its upward momentum on Wednesday and triggered a breakout above a lower swing high at $2,930. The advance also broke out above the 78.6% retracement level, also at $2,930, where gold had been stalled for about six days. Moreover, the 20-Day MA at $2,913 was reclaimed and tested as support with the day’s low of $2,906. This shows the progression of a strengthening trend.
The high for the day is $2,940, at the time of this writing and a daily close above that high will confirm the strength of the breakout. Currently, trading continues above that price level and in the upper third of the day’s trading range. This puts gold in a position to possibly close at the second or third highest daily closing price ever.
Potential Challenge to Record High of $2,956
The recent bearish retracement to a swing low of $2,833 and subsequent rally puts gold in a strong position to potentially break out to a new record high. A new record high of $2,956 was established in late February, putting it in sight of the current advance.
The first new high target at $2,978 is established by a rising ABCD pattern that looks for price symmetry between the two recent upswings. It can be considered along with another target close by at $2,982. The next higher target above that price zone is at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the recent bearish correction at $2,990.
Weekly Breakout Confirms Strength
It is also significant that today’s bull breakout triggered a weekly breakout above last week’s high, which took the form of an inside week. A daily close this week above last week’s high of $2,930 will confirm the breakout on the weekly time frame.
Bearish RSI Divergence a Concern
Despite the bullish indications noted above, there is a concern about a bearish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI). It shows diminishing bullish momentum. In addition, last month ended with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. So far, trading in March has been contained inside the $2,772 to $2,956 price range from February. As gold approaches the peak of last month’s price range it is at risk of losing momentum before a new record high. Selling pressure indicated by the monthly shooting star candle pattern shows the potential for increased selling pressure as the $2,956 record high is approached.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 243.3k, down 18.4k.
Last week, after rallying for eight weeks in a row – since it ticked $2,608 on December 30th – gold dropped 3.6 percent. This week, the uptrend continued, as the metal added 2.3 percent to $2,914/ounce, which is well under the all-time high of $2,974 from the 24th last month. Sellers showed up at the highs as gold bugs struggled at $2,960s-70s for several sessions.
For now, gold could go either way – toward its record high or toward $2,800, which it broke out of on January 30th.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29141 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28961 and overhead resistance forming above at 29398. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 15 weeks reaching a high during the week of February 24th at 29740. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 3.621% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 25415 as it has fallen back reaching only 28663 which still remains 12.77% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23793 and 31883. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 24th has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 25415 made the week of November 11th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28799. Additional support is to be found at 27320. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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