Semiconductor Industry Still At Risk If No Wider Econ Recovery
2009年10月15日 - 1:58AM
Dow Jones News
There are growing signs of a sustainable recovery in the
technology sector, driven by Chinese demand and the launch of new
netbook computers and Windows software, but the recovery must be
backed by a broader economic revival, industry experts said
Wednesday.
Shares in the sector soared across the world after chip maker
Intel Inc. (INTC), PC maker Acer Inc. (2353.TW) and ASML Holding NV
(ASML.AE), which makes the machines that produce chips, all said
demand in the sector was rising after a year of decline. The Stoxx
Europe 600 technology index ended 1.7% higher, and broader equities
markets also soared as investors' appetite for risk rose to the
highest level in three years, according to a survey of fund
managers conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
However, ASML Chief Financial Officer Peter Wennink warned that
demand may not be sustained into the second half of next year
unless there is a broader economic recovery.
Citing ASML's order backlog, Wennink said the first half of 2010
will look good. "What we need for the second half to be as good is
for the world economy to pick up," he said.
Economists say the risk of a slight recovery followed by another
contraction seems to be receding, but with incomes flat,
unemployment rising and credit still tight, any recovery is likely
to be a slow, drawn-out affair.
Still, Intel reported third-quarter results that were well above
the upbeat projections it issued several weeks ago and predicted
business conditions will improve even more in the current quarter,
with its closely watched gross profit margin expected to rise to
the highest level since late 2005.
Intel executives said they saw signs of strong buying of laptop
PCs, led by back-to-school purchases in the U.S. and demand from
consumers in China.
European rivals such as ARM Holdings (ARM.LN) of the U.K. and
France's STMicroelectronics (STM) saw their shares rise sharply on
the Intel outlook, but they declined to comment on their own
prospects ahead of earnings releases in the next few weeks.
The Intel view was backed by ASML, which produces the
lithography machines that make chips for Intel and rivals including
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930.SE) and Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Co.(TSM).
Reporting its first net profit for a year, the world's largest
maker of lithography systems - which map out tiny electronic
circuits on silicon wafers - said it was confident about the first
half of next year because of its EUR1.35 billion order backlog.
About 77% of the backlog is for memory chip makers and contractors
that produce chips on behalf of other companies. These chips are
used in PCs, cameras, MP3 players and smartphones, and increasingly
in laptops and the lighter netbooks.
Taiwan-based PC maker Acer, meanwhile, said it expects revenue
to be steady this year as demand from China and elsewhere in Asia
offsets declines in other markets. It is also predicting it will
overtake Dell Inc. (Dell) as the world's second-biggest personal
computer maker by shipments some time in the next two quarters.
"The life cycle of products is getting shorter, with people
quicker to change [PCs] than before," said Acer President
Gianfranco Lanci.
"People have been underestimating demand for a long time," said
Unni Narayanan, chief executive of Primary Global Research. Among
other things, he said, PC makers are placing orders on the
expectation that Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows 7 operating
system - to be released Oct. 22 - will prompt extra demand.
"In the semiconductor industry the capacity utilization rate is
high, and more capacity could be needed shortly," said Commerzbank
analyst Thomas Becker. Unicredit's Guenther Hollfelder said
relatively low chip inventory levels limit the risk of a
setback.
However, while there a lot of consumer electronic products in
the pipeline, "they have to be bought by consumers," said
Becker.
-By Archibald Preuschat, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 211 13872 18;
archibald.preuschat@dowjones.com