More than half of traders have a bullish
outlook for the first quarter – the highest level of bullishness
since 2021
Trader sentiment has turned bullish according to the latest
Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey, a quarterly study that
explores the outlooks, expectations, and perspectives of traders at
Charles Schwab. More than half of respondents (53%) report a
bullish outlook on the U.S. stock market – the highest level since
the survey began in 2021 and a significant increase from the 32%
who were bullish in the fourth quarter of last year. Additionally,
49% of traders believe it’s a good time to invest in equities, up
from 41% last quarter.
Traders’ outlook for the economy has also become more
optimistic. Nearly half (48%) of traders think the U.S. will likely
avoid a recession in 2024, up from 23% last quarter.
“As the economy continues to show signs of improvement, trader
optimism is on the rise with bullishness at its highest level since
we began the survey,” said James Kostulias, head of Trading
Services at Charles Schwab. “That said, there is still plenty of
uncertainty out there, from global conflicts to the upcoming
election to the path of inflation.”
Trader concerns and confidence
In the first part of 2024, geopolitical and global macroeconomic
issues emerged as the top concern weighing on traders’ minds (18%),
followed by the political landscape in Washington, D.C. (16%). This
represents a shift from recent months; in Q4 2023, the political
landscape dominated traders’ concerns. Worry over the potential for
a recession, meanwhile, has dropped steadily since its peak in Q2
2023.
Primary concerns around
investing
1Q ‘24
4Q ‘23
3Q ‘23
2Q ‘23
1Q ‘23
Geopolitical or global macroeconomic
issues
18%
5%
8%
10%
9%
Political landscape in D.C.
16%
21%
13%
13%
12%
Market correction
9%
8%
10%
7%
6%
Uncertainty/potential increase in market
volatility
9%
7%
7%
6%
7%
Potential of a recession
9%
11%
14%
18%
15%
Inflation
9%
11%
10%
8%
12%
Fed holding rates steady
6%
3%
1%
n/a
n/a
Traders point to the U.S. presidential election (42%), the
direction of the federal funds rate (37%) inflation (34%) and
geopolitical conflict (31%) as the factors that will have the
biggest impacts on the markets this year.
Concerns aside, traders’ confidence in their own
decision-making, similar to bullishness, hit the highest level
since Schwab began its survey at 68%. Additionally, the number of
traders who say they feel better off financially compared to a year
ago reached 54%, up 21 percentage points quarter-over-quarter.
“It’s encouraging to see that traders’ overall confidence in
their decision-making continues to grow,” said Kostulias. “Part of
that is market-driven, but it also aligns with what we’re seeing in
terms of trader clients’ interest and engagement with investing and
educational tools, content, and research. As traders utilize more
tools and resources, they are in a better position to vet ideas and
strategies and make informed trading decisions. That is why this is
such a big focus at Schwab, and a critical component of the Schwab
Trading Powered by Ameritrade ecosystem.”
Sector and asset class outlook
At the sector level, traders are most bullish on information
technology (55%), followed by health care (51%) and energy (46%).
They are most bearish about real estate (41%) and consumer
discretionary stocks (35%).
Traders are largely bullish on AI stocks (61%), as well as value
stocks (54%) and domestic equities (52%), while they are most
bearish on international stocks (35%), U.S. Treasuries (33%), and
cryptocurrency (32%).
Looking ahead to the next three months, about half of traders
plan to move money into individual stocks while nearly 40% plan to
move money into ETFs.
Portfolio Changes Planned in Next 3
Months
1Q ‘24
4Q ‘23
Move money into individual stocks
52%
45%
Move money into ETFs
39%
33%
Move money into fixed income
investments
27%
26%
Move money into cash investments
20%
23%
About the Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey
The Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey is a quarterly study
exploring the outlooks, expectations, trading patterns and points
of view of active traders at Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade –
defined as those making more than 80 equity trades, more than 12
options trades, or those who make futures or forex trades over the
course of the year. The study included 762 Active Trader clients at
Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade between the ages of 18-75 and was
fielded from January 12 - 27, 2024.
About Charles Schwab
At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help
individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of
challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that
benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them,
and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.
More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on
X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.
Disclosures
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only.
Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security,
strategy, or account type.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment
decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider
your individual financial position and goals before making an
independent investment decision.
All investments involve risk including the possible loss of
principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before
investing.
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. ("Schwab") and TD Ameritrade,
Inc., members SIPC, are separate but affiliated subsidiaries of The
Charles Schwab Corporation. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly
owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion
Bank.
0224-L9ZL
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240222851749/en/
Margaret Farrell Director, Corporate Communications (203)
434-2240 margaret.farrell@schwab.com
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW)
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