TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales to Hit 17M SAAR for First Time in 2019 While Automakers Continue to Pull Back on...
2019年3月27日 - 10:00PM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,570,365 units in
March, down 1.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of active selling days in 2018. This month’s seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an
estimated 17 million units for the month. Excluding fleet sales,
ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to
be 1,259,018 units, a decrease of 4.3% from a year ago, but an
increase of 30% from last month, largely due to seasonality.
“The declines we’re seeing at the start of 2019 are not
unexpected,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at TrueCar’s ALG.
“Tariffs and the rising interest rate environment have made
consumers a bit cautious; however, both the economy and the auto
industry remain strong despite uncertainty about the future.”
While automakers have historically raised incentives in times of
economic uncertainty, ALG expects OEMs to continue decreasing their
incentive spend. Average incentive spending by automakers should
reach an estimated $3,604 per vehicle in March down $191 or 5% from
a year ago, and up 0.1% or $5 from February 2019. For March, ALG
estimates ATP for new light vehicles was $34,213, up 2.8% from a
year ago while incentives as a percentage of ATP was at 10.5% down
0.9 percentage points year-over-year.
“Incentives are not as rich as they were last year,” said Eric
Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for TrueCar’s ALG. “That’s a sign of
balance in the automotive space as automakers are better aligning
production and incentive spend with consumer demand. GM’s Cadillac
and Chevrolet brands are showing the largest improvements in ALG’s
Retail Health Index leading the luxury and mainstream sectors
respectively in March.”
ALGs Retail Health Index (RHI) assesses whether OEMs are gaining
market share through consumer demand or through incentives.
Due to Tesla’s increased volume, ALG is now publishing a sales
forecast for the brand alongside its other automaker forecasts.
“The eyes of the automotive industry are fixed on Tesla now that
the brand is competing at a transaction price that is more in line
with mass market vehicles following the launch of the Model 3,”
said Lyman.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes
in retail market share relative to
changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge
whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Graphics accompanying this announcement are available
athttp://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/b0f527d8-407b-4b77-90d9-c77e5e1e1cc7
http://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/94ec9921-97ae-4c69-981f-c769c3599e61
Forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume:
Total Unit Sales (adjusted for same
number of selling days as 2018)
Manufacturer |
March 2019 Forecast |
March 2018 |
YoY %Change |
|
BMW |
32,382 |
35,958 |
-6.6 |
% |
Daimler |
28,096 |
31,484 |
-7.5 |
% |
FCA |
205,961 |
216,948 |
-1.5 |
% |
Ford |
224,389 |
243,021 |
-4.2 |
% |
GM |
274,801 |
296,138 |
-3.8 |
% |
Honda |
142,901 |
142,392 |
4.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
59,945 |
60,154 |
3.3 |
% |
Kia |
51,291 |
50,645 |
5.0 |
% |
Nissan |
141,365 |
162,535 |
-9.8 |
% |
Subaru |
57,765 |
58,097 |
3.1 |
% |
Tesla |
19,598 |
4,050 |
401.8 |
% |
Toyota |
214,076 |
222,782 |
-0.3 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
53,021 |
57,748 |
-4.8 |
% |
Industry |
1,570,365 |
1,653,529 |
-1.5 |
% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Incentive per UnitMarch 2019
Forecast |
Incentive per UnitMarch 2018 |
Incentive ChangeYOY |
|
BMW |
$5,689 |
$5,595 |
1.7 |
% |
Daimler |
$5,757 |
$4,775 |
20.6 |
% |
FCA |
$4,720 |
$4,579 |
3.1 |
% |
Ford |
$3,954 |
$4,167 |
-5.1 |
% |
GM |
$4,614 |
$5,667 |
-18.6 |
% |
Honda |
$2,235 |
$1,556 |
43.6 |
% |
Hyundai |
$2,510 |
$2,875 |
-12.7 |
% |
Kia |
$3,690 |
$3,858 |
-4.4 |
% |
Nissan |
$3,738 |
$3,772 |
-0.9 |
% |
Subaru |
$1,413 |
$1,199 |
17.9 |
% |
Toyota |
$2,255 |
$2,347 |
-3.9 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,460 |
$3,618 |
-4.4 |
% |
Industry |
$3,604 |
$3,795 |
-5.0 |
% |
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
March 2019Forecast |
March 2018 |
Feb 2019 |
YOY %change |
MOM %change |
BMW |
$56,533 |
$52,205 |
$55,335 |
8.3 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
Daimler |
$64,418 |
$60,752 |
$64,468 |
6.0 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
FCA |
$36,259 |
$34,090 |
$35,637 |
6.4 |
% |
1.7 |
% |
Ford |
$39,183 |
$37,404 |
$38,692 |
4.8 |
% |
1.3 |
% |
GM |
$35,911 |
$34,768 |
$37,299 |
3.3 |
% |
-3.7 |
% |
Honda |
$28,072 |
$27,991 |
$28,655 |
0.3 |
% |
-2.0 |
% |
Hyundai |
$22,901 |
$22,701 |
$23,684 |
0.9 |
% |
-3.3 |
% |
Kia |
$23,915 |
$23,027 |
$22,770 |
3.9 |
% |
5.0 |
% |
Nissan |
$27,404 |
$27,736 |
$27,884 |
-1.2 |
% |
-1.7 |
% |
Subaru |
$29,305 |
$27,918 |
$29,237 |
5.0 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Toyota |
$32,358 |
$32,309 |
$32,375 |
0.2 |
% |
-0.1 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$37,081 |
$36,289 |
$37,311 |
2.2 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
Industry |
$34,213 |
$33,280 |
$34,411 |
2.8 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is
not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For
more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on
Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
Dominique Koudsi dkoudsi@theoutcastagency.com
213.425.2359
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