Rental prices should stay flat while wages
increase, improving affordability for renters, as the cost of
buying a home rises
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Redfin’s economists expect there will be more
home sales in 2025, largely due to pent-up demand. But some
would-be homebuyers will still be priced out, with home prices
climbing and mortgage rates remaining near 7%. That’s according to
annual housing market predictions from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Prediction 1: Home Prices Will Rise 4%
Redfin expects the median U.S. home-sale price to rise steadily
throughout 2025, ending the year 4% higher than it was in 2024.
Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of
2024 because there will not be enough new inventory to meet demand.
Rising prices are one factor that will keep homeownership out of
reach for many Americans, leading some would-be homebuyers to rent
instead.
Prediction 2: Mortgage Rates Will Remain Near 7%
Mortgage rates are likely to remain in the high-6% range
throughout 2025, with the weekly average rate fluctuating
throughout the year but averaging around 6.8%. Investors are
anticipating that if President-elect Donald Trump implements a
significant portion of his proposed tax cuts and tariffs, and the
economy stays strong, the Fed will only cut its policy rate twice
in 2025, keeping mortgage rates high. Tariffs could be
inflationary, and enacting more tax cuts would increase the U.S.
deficit, both of which would push mortgage rates up. High mortgage
rates are the second part of the equation that will keep homebuying
unaffordable.
However, mortgage rates could drop to the low-6% range if the
economy weakens and/or if plans for tariffs and tax cuts are dialed
back. Any year in which the presidential administration changes is
unpredictable, and this one may be especially unpredictable.
Prediction 3: There Will Be More Home Sales in 2025 Than
2024
Redfin expects existing home sales to tick up next year, ending
2025 at an annualized rate of between 4.1 million and 4.4 million.
That represents a year-over-year increase of between 2% and 9%.
Redfin is presenting an unusually wide sales range this year
because while high housing costs may price out some would-be
buyers, there’s also a fair amount of pent-up demand in the
market.
If sales post just a small increase, it will be because of high
mortgage rates and low inventory, as homeowners continue to hang
onto their homes.
Sales may post a bigger increase if mortgage rates decline more
than expected, and/or if the recent burst in homebuying demand
continues. Homebuying demand jumped in the weeks after the November
election despite mortgage rates sitting around 7%. That was partly
because buyers were waiting for uncertainty to pass before making a
big purchase, and partly because many people felt more financially
confident with the promise of a Republican-led administration. Even
before the election, Redfin’s data showed that rising mortgage
rates didn’t deter buyers as much as expected, likely in part
because many Americans have grown accustomed to high mortgage
rates. If the economy stays strong and enough people can afford
next year’s high housing costs, that would push up sales.
Prediction 4: 2025 Will Be a Renter’s Market
Many Americans will remain renters or become renters. While the
cost of buying a home will increase, rental affordability will
improve. Redfin predicts the median U.S. asking rent will remain
flat year over year in 2025. That will make rent payments more
affordable to the typical American because wages will rise.
There will also be more new rentals coming on the market, with
many of the units builders started working on during the pandemic
apartment-building boom coming to fruition. This will create more
supply than demand, motivating landlords to offer concessions like
free parking, a free month of rent, more amenities or a hiatus on
rent increases in order to retain residents.
Prediction 5: Fewer Construction Regulations Will Lead to
More Homebuilding
Redfin predicts homebuilders will construct more single-family
homes in 2025, though it will take a few years for the increase in
homebuilding to make buying a house significantly more affordable.
The Republican sweep of the White House, Senate and House has
improved builder confidence by bringing renewed optimism that
regulatory burdens may ease. Builders will also bank on the fact
that the mortgage-rate lock-in effect will put a lid on the amount
of existing inventory competing with new builds.
Easing regulations should also lead to a rebound in multifamily
housing starts. That will be a reversal from 2024, when builders
pulled back on apartment starts because of the glut of supply.
The caveat is that there are a few headwinds for builders. One,
interest rates are likely to stay high. Two, the incoming
administration has said it will cut back on immigration, which
would likely lead to less residential construction, as immigrants
make up about 30% of the country’s construction work force.
Prediction 6: Wealthy People Will Pay Less to Buy and Sell
Homes As Commissions Decline Slightly
In the first full year under the new National Association of
Realtors (NAR) commission rules, Redfin expects real estate
commissions to come down slightly. That’s true especially for
luxury homes where agents have the most room to reduce their fees,
and in competitive housing markets, where fees are increasingly a
point of negotiation in a bidding war. It remains to be seen how
much antitrust enforcers in the incoming administration will press
additional real-estate industry reforms. The Department of Justice
said in a recent filing that it “continues to scrutinize policies
and practices in the residential real estate industry that may
stifle competition,” but it’s unclear if it will take any formal
action.
Prediction 7: The Real Estate Industry Will
Consolidate
Under the new administration, the Federal Trade Commission will
be more likely to approve mergers and acquisitions among large
companies. Unlike other industries with a few dominant players, the
U.S. real estate industry has long been fragmented with multiple
real estate search sites and brokerages of all sizes and business
models competing for agents and customers. While it’s not uncommon
for larger brokerages to have affiliated mortgage or title
services, we’re likely to see more roll-ups of brokerages, lenders
and title companies looking to generate more business from every
customer.
Prediction 8: Climate Risks Will Be Priced Into Individual
Homes, Especially in Coastal Florida
The risk of natural disasters will start pushing down home
prices or slowing price growth in climate-risky places, like
coastal Florida, wildfire-prone parts of California and
hurricane-prone parts of Texas. Homebuyers and their agents will,
by necessity, get more knowledgeable about the riskiness of each
individual property. More homebuyers will move to comparatively
affordable places in the Midwest and Northeast, which offer
relative protection from climate-driven disasters.
Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton were a turning point for
many middle- and lower-income Florida homeowners. More homebuyers
looked to leave Florida this fall than a year earlier, and fewer
out-of-town buyers looked to move into the state. Coastal Florida
could become a place where only wealthy people who can pay sky-high
insurance premiums or have the cash to rebuild can afford to live.
Redfin predicts the coastal Florida luxury market will stay
strong.
Prediction 9: Mayors in Blue Cities Will Help Reverse the
Flight From Urban Centers
San Francisco elected a pro-business Democrat as its new mayor
this year, Portland, OR elected a mayor who pledged to end
unsheltered homelessness, and several other big cities in blue
states are enacting tough-on-crime policies to revive their
downtowns and retain residents. Those political factors, along with
many big companies—including tech firms—bringing their workers back
into the office, may start a reversal of the flight from big
coastal cities.
This will be especially true in California. Many Golden State
residents will be motivated to stay because housing supply will
continue to improve, curbing price growth; specifically, the ADU
building boom in places like Los Angeles and the Bay Area should
continue to provide more housing. Additionally, it no longer makes
as much sense to chase housing affordability in the desert, as home
prices in places like Phoenix and Las Vegas have gotten higher
while climates have gotten hotter.
Prediction 10: Gen Z Will Rewrite the American Dream, Cutting
Homeownership From the Script
Lower-priced homes will boom in 2025 compared to higher-priced
homes, but that won’t be because young Americans or working-class
people are breaking into homeownership. Instead, affordable homes
will be snapped up by older buyers who are priced out of higher
price tiers. Gen Zers, meanwhile, will keep living with family or
renting until well into their 30s, opting to build wealth in other
ways.
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-predictions-2025
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the
country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business
empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for
rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6
billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across
the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241204855336/en/
Contact Redfin Redfin Journalist Services: Ally Forsell,
206-588-6863 press@redfin.com
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
過去 株価チャート
から 12 2024 まで 1 2025
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
過去 株価チャート
から 1 2024 まで 1 2025
