Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level
since February after the latest CPI report showed inflation
cooling. Still, pending home sales posted their biggest decline in
eight months
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing
payment was $2,722 during the four weeks ending July 14, $115 lower
than April’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s
despite home prices sitting just about $100 shy of last week’s
record high.
Daily average mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level
since February after last week’s cooler-than-expected inflation
report, bringing homebuyers a bit of relief.
A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $450,000
home with a 6.8% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average as of
July 17. That buyer has gained about $25,000 in purchasing power
since rates hit a five-month peak in April, when they could have
bought a $425,000 home with a 7.5% rate.
Rising supply is another piece of promising news for homebuyers,
with new listings up 6.4% year over year and the total number of
listings near its highest level in almost four years. More
homeowners are selling because they’re tired of waiting for rates
to drop significantly; it has been more than two years since they
started rising from pandemic-era lows.
Buyers have yet to react strongly to falling rates and
increasing inventory. Pending sales are down 5.6% year over year,
the biggest decline in eight months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand
Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services
from Redfin agents—is down 15%. Mortgage-purchase applications are
down 3% week over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s
despite mortgage rates falling year over year; the 6.83% daily
average as of July 17 is down from 6.9% a year ago. Some buyers are
sitting on the sidelines because they’re hoping mortgage rates will
decline more.
“Now that it’s looking increasingly likely the Fed will cut
interest rates by the end of the year, some house hunters believe
mortgage rates will fall more and are waiting for that to happen
before they buy,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead.
“But they may be waiting in vain; it’s unlikely mortgage rates will
drop much lower in the next few months, as markets are already
pricing in the expectation of a rate cut in September, followed by
several more at the end of 2024 and into 2025. In fact, now may be
the right time for house hunters to get serious about making offers
before prices increase even more and they lose some power. Plus,
there are more homes to choose from, and many listings are growing
stale, giving buyers an opportunity to negotiate.”
Another reason for slow demand is extreme heat in some parts of
the country preventing house hunters from touring. Nashville, TN
Redfin Premier agent Kristin Sanchez said: “Severe heat waves are
making people feel pretty much locked in their houses. They don’t
want to come out to see homes because it’s miserable outside; open
houses haven’t been getting much traffic.”
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market,
please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.83% (July 17)
Lowest level since February; down
from 7.14% 2 weeks earlier
Down from 6.9%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.89% (week ending July 11)
Down from 6.95% a week
earlier
Down from 6.96%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Decreased 3% from a week earlier
(as of week ending July 12)
Down 14%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 3% from a month earlier (as of
week ending July 14)
Down 15%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a
measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from
Redfin agents
Touring activity
Up 26 from the start of the year
(as of July 14)
At this time last year, it was up
19% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring
technology company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of
July 15)
Down 20%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July
14, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending July 14,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$396,379
4.4%
Just about $100 shy of last
week’s all-time high
Median asking price
$404,998
5.2%
Median monthly mortgage
payment
$2,722 at a 6.89% mortgage
rate
6.1%
$115 below all-time high set
during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
81,297
-5.6%
Biggest decline in 8 months
New listings
93,676
6.4%
Active listings
977,230
18.4%
Smallest increase in 3 months
Months of supply
3.6
+0.7 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in
two weeks
39.1%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
32
+4 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
31.6%
Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.7%
+1.8 pts.
Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.5%
-0.5 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending July 14, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest
year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest
year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Detroit (16.3%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (14.4%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.9%)
Providence, RI (13.4%)
New Brunswick, NJ (12.3%)
Dallas (-2.3%)
Austin, TX (-2.1%)
Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (9.6%)
San Francisco (7.1%)
Boston (4.5%)
Newark, NJ (3.5%)
Cincinnati, OH (2.4%)
Houston (-24.4%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%)
Minneapolis (-16.2%)
Virginia Beach, VA (-13.4%)
Atlanta (-12.9%)
Increased in 7 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (30.3%)
Las Vegas (19.7%)
Miami (18.9%)
Jacksonville, FL (17.4%)
Seattle (15.6%)
Atlanta (-13.1%)
Houston (-6.6%)
Warren, MI (-5.1%)
Detroit (-4.5%)
Minneapolis (-3.2%)
Declined in 8 metros
To view the full report, including charts, methodology and
metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-mortgage-rates-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240718406458/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite
press@redfin.com
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
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