NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) オプション

The article on Yahoo does a very good job of explaining the actual problem Nvidia is having. In essence this is what I took from the Q presentation:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-supply-snags-hurting-deliveries-021326781.html

"There's the risk that the bottlenecks worsen rather than improve, and that could damage revenue projections," said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital.
"We're at the beginning of our production ramp, which always comes with opportunities for yield improvement," Huang told Reuters on Wednesday. "We are ramping Blackwell from zero to something extremely large. By definition, the laws of physics would say that there's a limit to how fast you can ramp."

In the short term, the production ramp-up is expected to pressure gross margins.

Nvidia executives warned investors the company's margins would sink several percentage points to the low-70% range until production kinks are ironed out.
So at this time the demand does remain high but how long will it take to improve production. They use the word short term but it will limit the yield, keep profits at a lower level, and who knows how long it will take. That's why Jensen spent a lot of his time on demand.. So until they can get their yields up, the demand will remain high for now. The longer the yield remains a problem, the greater the chance of companies going to other sources to fulfill their requirements. There are chips which are equal or better than the Hopper which will become more available in first quarter 2025 at a lower cost and lower power consumption. The majority of these chips will be made by TSMC.

So, I'm not expecting anything better for the next Q report and possibly worse until their yield situation is significantly improved.

with a market cap at $3.7 trillion, this is the top, you just cant see it yet :)
even if they shrink the float over time, the market cap may never see $4 trillion, so this is the time to sell

all stocks that rise like this eventually tumble, even if still great company.

BOOK those PROFITS and wait for $90

so NVDA just said they own the AI market. and they told you that it just started and next 18 months will be positive. so Im gunna go invest in something else... LOL SMH people just have no idea how large this idea is.

it is incredible to me that people do not understand the change. everything is changing - not on a small scale -- on a large scale and Nvidia is the backbone of the scale of change. its insane that people can't grasp this . Institutions asking stupid questions about profit on the Q3 - so stupid. they don't see the big picture.

humans no longer create code. anyone hear that in the Q3? jees. institutions asking about net profit. LOL

this is world changing - no one sees it. SMH

will open on my toenail and finish on my scalp.

Thanks Oleblu - good video. 5X. yea boii. nvidea is stacked. holding long.

Where will it open in the morning?

Nvidia Results Will Spur a Santa Claus Rally, Ives Says

all the institutions are asked a ton about gross profit on particular products to be all fluffy and in the know. .72 to .74 to .75 like they really are investing on that? weird they are looking at the numbers in like 2% points- and they don't see the big opportunity. I get it - that the job - check the box. but they are missing the big idea. what ever - the institutions are all boring as fu*k

Best Report in 2 Years': NVIDIA Earnings Crushes Expectations Again

trading at 142, would be a $60+ gain, eh?

I thought it was another good earnings call it is hard to remember call to call but it seemed to me Colette was asked more questions than usual. I think the street is having a hard time modeling the hopper versus Blackwell breakdown. I'm not a financial guy it seems they don't give the analyst a lot to go on it is great they actually have to do something. Jensen did say next quarter will have more Blackwell than originally thought so I guess several several billion dollars worth. I thought Jensen answered the over heating question good in his roundabout way where afterwards you're thinking did he answer that and was there a problem:) Anyway I predicted earlier this was going up after earnings don't know we'll see but regardless the chart will continue upward to the right. 

agree with sentiment on this thread - I personally was very energized by future opportunities. Im long and and a long investor. I care not so much to month to month. Tell me - please - anyone - what company has anything like Nvidia? The answer is - no one is even close. $1 trillion data centers need to be overhauled? anyone hear that from Jensen in the Q3 call? its a no brainer - That's pure gold. sell all you want - it will be bought up.

by now we all accept knowledge is power. jensen's ai is currently the ultimate in such and developing at breakneck speed.
those who don't own some nvidia or want more, want the price to go down and then buy it because they are smarter than the sellers.
all companies want ai advantage and ability to predict with greater certainty the correct moves to make in business.
if you were a cave man without fire, you'd want the guy with the fire to give up on it and move on so you could get it.
the only reticence might be the potential for war, which if anyting makes ai even more important. smarter bombs/smarter defenses/ better drones and where to ue them, etc.
they didn't even mention dod want an ai network and potential segue with other government desires. if i did anything, i'd look to add agentic ai and orchetrator ip company to portfolio. nvidia is a mainstay.

What a great problem to have………not enough supply to satisfy your customers orders. It is, however, a serious problem and may direct customers to a competitive offering. Connectivity and secure interoperability would certainly suffer if that happens. Therefore what is the solution? No one other than TSMC has the current capabilities to make NVDA’s current chip configurations.

It is what it is.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings!

Whatever happens tomorrow, the overall outlook is very bright for NVDA.

I understand your point. You want him to mute his optimism somewhat. And maybe he should. He’s a guy who started NVDA at a table at Denny’s in collaboration with two other engineers. They quit their jobs at Sun Microsystems and gambled all of their possessions to build a new business.

Fast forward to inventing a GPU and going after graphic improvement for video games. Fast forward further to betting your successful business on an unknown project called Artificial Intelligence.

He’s now known as “the Godfather” of AI and has built an ecosystem comprised of software/hardware that is currently impenetrable. He built a revolutionary/evolutionary business that hyperscalers and data centers currently can’t get enough of his product that enables the future benefits of AI.

He certainly deserves the platitudes and respect that is bestowed on him. As such his hubris probably gets to him at times. That being said he has stated his main concerns are meeting his customers needs with demand outstripping supply by a ratio of 15:1. Therefore demand is off the charts and is staggering. Should he state that? Apparently not.

“The market” will adjust. If things are good people will act so it doesn’t matter what Jensen says in the short term. I don’t get the expectations game but considering the stock didn’t tank after earnings tells me it’s going up from here. Not saying there won’t be a short term reaction but it’s looking good.

Nasdaq Traders Brace for Volatility as Nvidia’s Q4 Guidance Signals Supply Constraints
By: James Hyerczyk | November 20, 2024

Key Points:

• Nvidia Q3 revenue surged 94% to $35B, with AI chip demand driving data center revenue up 112% to a record $30.8B.
• Supply constraints for Nvidia’s Blackwell AI chips could last into 2026, limiting near-term growth despite robust demand.
• Nvidia’s Q4 guidance disappointed, with a $37.5B revenue target narrowly exceeding analyst estimates of $37.1B.
• Options traders expect Nvidia stock volatility, with potential 9% moves equating to $310B in market cap shifts.
• Nvidia’s market impact extends to major indices, influencing tech-heavy benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Why Did Nvidia’s Stock Drop After Strong Earnings?

Nvidia (NVDA) delivered a stellar third-quarter earnings report, highlighting its dominance in the AI chip market. Adjusted earnings came in at $0.81 per share, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $0.75. Revenue surged 94% year-over-year to $35.08 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $31.3 billion. Data center revenue, the backbone of Nvidia’s AI business, jumped 112% to $30.8 billion.


Daily NVIDIA Corporation

Despite these robust results, Nvidia shares fell 1.7% in after-hours trading. The decline was attributed to its fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $37.5 billion, which narrowly exceeded the $37.1 billion consensus estimate. This cautious guidance dampened investor enthusiasm, particularly in light of ongoing supply chain challenges for Nvidia’s new Blackwell AI chip.

How Are Supply Constraints Affecting Nvidia’s Outlook?

Nvidia CFO Colette Kress noted that while Blackwell shipments are set to begin this quarter, the company anticipates supply constraints to persist into fiscal 2026. The overwhelming demand for Blackwell and Hopper chips, which power AI applications, highlights Nvidia’s market leadership but also underscores its production limitations.

CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that demand remains “staggering,” driven by a global AI boom across industries. While Nvidia is working to scale production, these constraints could limit near-term growth opportunities, even as the company solidifies its position as a cornerstone of the AI revolution.

What Does This Mean for Options Traders?

Options traders are bracing for heightened volatility, with implied moves suggesting potential price swings of 9% in either direction following the earnings release. With a $3.5 trillion market cap, this could translate into $310 billion of value added or lost. Given Nvidia’s weight in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, any significant price movement will likely impact broader market benchmarks, amplifying volatility across the tech sector.

How Will This Impact Broader Market Sentiment?

Nvidia’s Q3 performance reinforces its dominance in the AI market but raises concerns about its ability to meet explosive demand. Investor sentiment toward Nvidia often spills into the broader tech sector, making its guidance a key signal for other AI and semiconductor stocks. Short-term uncertainty around supply constraints could weigh on the stock, but the broader demand story remains intact, supporting a positive long-term outlook.

Market Forecast: A Balanced View

• Short-Term Outlook: Bearish, as supply constraints and cautious guidance weigh on near-term sentiment.
• Long-Term Outlook: Bullish, driven by Nvidia’s unmatched leadership in the AI chip market and sustained demand for its products.

Traders should watch Nvidia’s supply chain developments closely, as they will likely influence stock momentum in the months ahead.

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold

I agree. The reaction is muted. Sometimes from my experience, the great news doesn't catch up until the next day. We'll just have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.

NVDA should be hitting $200 or $210s based on these numbers and future business.
That ii is down is CRAZY/NUTS/INSANE. NVDA is one of the greatest companies right now.
One really can't be any better. Elon Musk is going to be buying $billion in NVDA chips for his new AI supercomputer. And those needing chips is the entire world.
It is what it is. But that it is down is crazy.

I'd rather have a CEO that is positive but not overly so.

Jensen could say something like " we expect numbers to improve next quarter" or something akin to that - instead of saying things like "Demand is off the charts and staggering!".

Then we see NVDA beat analyst numbers by the amount they did today, the stock would take off....not lag because some group of talking heads "whispers" numbers much higher.

He is great for teaching. High energy and interesting orator. He explains it all in detail. Makes easy to understand whatever he is talking about.

Enthusiastic and very likeable on stage. I like the man. Genuine and frank.

However, lacking in politics or organizing planned/strategic selling, in my opinion.

I’d rather have an optimistic CEO versus one whose other job is as a cadaver. Last quarter he beat by 6% and beat by 8% this quarter. He’s not the problem. Analysts have never seen a stock perform like NVDA and they were embarrassed and left in the dust circa 22-23. Now they act like their Magic 8 ball is infallible.

They have "smashed" it before and apparently it wasn't "smashed" ENOUGH. This happens almost routinely now.

I do agree - topping analyst numbers by that amount should be looked at as a "smash". But NVDA carries with it unrealistic expectations.

Just saying....look at what has happened! These idiot "whisper numbers" are what people are looking at. And when the actual "beat" doesn't measure up to the "whispers"??? This is what happens.

Stupid as hell but it is what it is.

Dan Ives is still super bullish ..".its only 9,30 at the AI party " but MSFT Ceo more cautious near term ” While I am optimistic over the next several years on the AI buildout, I have also been thinking there will be a temporary AI digestion phase for the industry in the first half of 2025 due to ROI concerns.
Kiwi

You do have a point but if he keeps quiet then people will think the forecast won't be good. It's like you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. So I personally think embellishment is apropos. Maybe he should think about using the simple philosophy of "kiss" and spend some time on a good forward looking statement. Facts are facts which were presented by the CFO but how about a good and simple forward looking statement. The majority of people he is speaking to aren't genius's. There was a comment made by the CFO which related to % profits in relation to high or low expectations. I think she tried to elaborate a little to much in her response and left it more open for interpretation. A response of something like a normal profit for us would be xx percent to xx percent.

And I haven't seen companies with that good of results get so decimated by supposed disappointment

After taking profits several times, my current average cost is $105.35.

I am ahead in profits by about 38%.

I wish tomorrow share price goes lower down to $140, or even lower for me to buy more shares.

Should it go higher, like closer about $150, that would be an opportunity to sell some.

Great earnings call in process for those who want to learn more about NVDIA's products, goals, releases.

My past comments about the possibility of Nvidia having a SP of over 160 seems more and more the norm. I don't think there is a number in the way of revs or EPS to get us above that point. Also if there is more and more pressure from external sources to keep the price down and not achieving the higher estimates, then why keep the stock. There are better investments if that's the case.

They SMASHED it. They said demand is "STAGGERING". I've never seen those words before have you?

So the belief is by being in range, Nvidia should not be that much ahead of competition and the demand should not be excessive. I mean that's my perspective but didn't sound that way from the Jensen standpoint which means Nvidia is basically being punished for being so good.

Jensen just needs to keep his mouth SHUT. He is half the problem of people having unrealistic earnings expectations.

In my opinion, that is an unrealistic expectation.

Many have said that NVDA carries with it a bunch of unrealistic expectation as far as investors go. They think, not only should NVDA beat analyst expectations, but they should ALWAYS SMASH THEM. When they simply beat them, it isn't good enough. So, the stock price suffers.

Those that are in this for the "quick $200 rise" and then out? Forget it. The size of the OS base and the unrealistic expectations are against that. This will be a "hold for higher prices" type of thing now. And there will be slumps and spikes along the way.

so , now jensen needs to tell us how much money nvidia makes with the care and feeding and medical plan for the architecture and also if he struck a deal with the client customers to share in the rewards of their discoveries/profit...profit sharing.........do you just give it away for a once in a lifetime bonanza?

subscription, maintenance contracts, share of the profits or money saved?

bottom line there is a lot of quality dollars going to be main in the care, monitoring, fixing, teaching, getting fresh data for the beast. do you watch the goldrush show? you can have all the equipment and people set up but if you don't have good dirt with some gold in it. sometimes it takes a knowledgeable human to take a look see ....so the ai needs to get that into itself. starship troopers, , the head insects each the brains of their captives for the knowledge.

NVDA should be up $55 right????!!!!????

now we need to see if cuda-q and other non hardware can cover the hi and low's of hardware..they buy it but need to organize it, install it, network it, run it, optimize it, and then repeat on 2 year cycle if we can infer from jensen's referring to 2 year hardware cycles of new chips things....and with with it new capabilities while maintaining, dynamic networking, routing, and such as the architecture entity learns from old, current, and new data and data forms/configurations, physics, sensors, actuators. bottom like this is going to be akin to a living and learning whole which must be cared for, and helped and tested on it's work by itself, other machines, and humans. guesses.

many of us wonder what the proof of work/mining was all about. i wonder if it's a micro test to see if the new ip gets the same answer but much quicker.....better if they both get the same answer to same problem or there is a huge mountain top to obtain.

Down over $3 in aftermarket. Huh? Shouldn't NVDA be up $55 or even $100? Huh?

Not worth selling the 80 I bought for a measly $20 gain. Going to hold it till next quarter.

Already bouncing ah. Like someon else said they want to keep this in range or market will tank. To much reliance on one stock

Supply constraints. At 15:1 why would this be new news?

Reading the board and I have to say BS. We’re witnessing perfection being punished Beat predictions from company by $2 billion. Still maintaining 75% GP and 62% free cash flow. Forecast of almost a $4 billion increase from this report.

What other company can do this? None

Too many sources want to keep Nvidia's SP down and under $150. I doubt the EPS will ever be good enough or they find something else to drive the stock down. It's if they have a target on their back

Will go again on upcoming launch. Dip opp

Bottom line have to keep NVDA stable or the whole stock market falls down rapidly. Keep the range $138-$150 and all is well in paradise 

Well, if after hours is any indication, stock performance won't be good. Volume (delayed 15 minutes) is 35M and climbing. The bad thing is it's all red.

For those wondering why it is dropping even though revs doubled. Guidance came in weaker than expected.