4G Wireless Technology Seen Bringing Changes In Speed, Prices
2010年3月13日 - 3:59AM
Dow Jones News
The next generation of wireless communications technology won't
just change how quickly you can wirelessly download your favorite
Lady Gaga music video. It also may affect your wallet.
The latest in the alphabet soup of technology acronyms comes in
the form of Long-Term Evolution, or LTE--a fourth-generation, or
4G, wireless standard supported by many major telecommunications
companies around the world.
If you haven't heard of it, you will, as the standard becomes
more available over the next year. The 4G hype machine already has
pumped out promises of higher wireless downloading speeds, thanks
largely to advertisements from Sprint Nextel Corp. (S). Verizon
Wireless also has started to beat its chest over the potential
benefits of LTE.
Skeptics, however, say it still isn't clear just how fast the
network will be once more people start using it, and warn against
relying on the early speed claims. More importantly, though, the
progression to 4G from the currently used third-generation, or 3G,
technology may allow the carriers to implement something for which
they have long been angling: A tiered pricing structure that
enables them to charge heavy data users more money.
"The move to 4G gives them an excuse to play with the pricing
model," said Rory Altman, a partner at consulting firm Altman
Vilandrie & Co.
With mobile Internet traffic growing exponentially, carriers are
increasingly dealing with individuals who drag down the network
with their excessive usage. AT&T Inc. (T) says 3% of its
subscriber base, likely armed with an Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone,
make up 40% of the carrier's data traffic. AT&T Chief Executive
Randall Stephenson said he expects the wireless industry eventually
to move to a variable pricing model, but he hedged when asked if 4G
would be the catalyst.
"I don't know what the exact trigger is," he told Dow Jones
Newswires on Thursday.
The sentiment is one of the few things that Verizon Wireless,
which is jointly owned by Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and
Vodafone Group PLC (VOD), shares with its rival. On Wednesday,
Chief Technical Officer Anthony Melone told The Wall Street Journal
that unlimited-use pricing plans "is the big issue that has to
change."
Many expect a tiered pricing model, in which consumers pay
according to how much data they consume each month. It's similar to
the monthly bandwidth cap of five gigabytes--the equivalent of
downloading 14 half-hour television shows--that the telcos place on
wireless data cards for laptop computers.
Initially, Verizon Wireless plans to sell data cards for its LTE
network. But those caps, or some other tiered structure, may also
apply to LTE phones. The carrier said LTE phones would hit the
market by mid-2011.
One potential complication comes from customer confusion over
how much data they are using. Phones don't usually provide a
read-out of current data usage, and customers aren't used to
keeping track of how many emails they're sending or how often they
surf the mobile Web and watch videos.
Why would consumers pay more? With advertising for 4G hitting
the airwaves, many could be convinced to pay the premium because
they understand that the change represents an improvement in
service.
On Monday, Verizon Wireless released an update to its LTE
trials, claiming that the connection speeds were faster than the
carrier had anticipated. The headline numbers: Peak download rates
of 40 megabits to 50 megabits per second, or seven times faster
than the fastest available 3G connection, were achieved. But peak
rates are an example of ideal conditions, and the carrier followed
up with the more realistic average download rate of five megabits
to 12 megabits per second. A 3G connection at Verizon Wireless has
a typical speed of around 1.4 megabits per second.
Beware the speed claims, industry observers say. It isn't clear
whether consumers will get those rates, particularly as more people
start to use LTE and as outside factors such as possible
interference, distance to cell towers, and the number of users in
the area are factored into the equation.
"As I look at LTE, it's much more about preserving experience
that end users have now," said William Davidson, who runs global
marketing for Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). "I haven't seen a lot of people
guaranteeing a lot of speed."
LTE backers boast of the technology's ability to deliver faster
coverage to more people at a lower cost. In the beginning, the few
people on LTE will see blazing speeds. However, as with 3G
technology, the addition of more people to LTE service will begin
to bog down the benefits of the network. The wild card comes from
just how broadly it will be used.
"You can either get more speed or more people," said Harjot
Saluja, vice president of product management at Airvana Inc.
(AIRV). "The [speed] experience goes down with more people."
Rival AT&T, which will begin commercial trials of LTE next
year, is skeptical of Verizon Wireless's claims.
"It's a little early for anyone to declare victory," said
AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel.
Verizon Wireless expects to have LTE available in 25 to 30
markets by the end of the year, while smaller pre-paid wireless
provider MetroPCS Communications Inc. (PCS) expects to have LTE
available to many of its cities by year's end.
-By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2153;
roger.cheng@dowjones.com
(Niraj Sheth and Doug Cameron contributed to this article.)
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