Bitcoin Forming A Signal That’s Usually “Very Bullish,” Analyst Says
2024年7月19日 - 9:00AM
NEWSBTC
An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin is back above the cost basis
of the short-term holders, a sign that can be bullish for the
asset. Bitcoin Is Back Above The Realized Price Of Short-Term
Holders As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a
new post on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Price of the
short-term holders. The “Realized Price” here refers to an
indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of
the investors in the Bitcoin market. When the value of this metric
is greater than the cryptocurrency’s spot price, the average holder
in the sector can be assumed to be carrying some unrealized profit.
On the other hand, the indicator being under the BTC price implies
the dominance of losses in the market. Related Reading: XRP Surges
39% As Sharks & Whales Push Supply Share Past 85% In the
context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire
userbase isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the
short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors
who purchased their tokens within the past 155 days. This cohort
makes up one of the two main divisions of the BTC sector based on
holding time, with the other part of the market being known as the
long-term holders (LTHs). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend
in the Bitcoin Realized Price specifically for this cohort over the
past year: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price
had plunged under the Realized Price of the STHs last month,
meaning that this group had gone into a state of net loss. After
spending some time below the line, though, the cryptocurrency has
risen above the metric with the latest rally, thus bringing this
cohort back into profit. “This is usually a very bullish sign,”
notes Maartunn. The chart shows that the last time the asset broke
back above this level after an extended stay below it was last
October. This surge back above the line kicked off a run that would
eventually result in the coin setting a new all-time high (ATH). As
for why BTC breaking above the STH Realized Price has historically
been something bullish, the answer lies in investor psychology. The
STHs, who are relatively inexperienced hands, can be sensitive to
price movements. More specifically, they are likely to show a
reaction when their average cost basis undergoes a retest. When
these investors are bearish, they may decide to sell when the price
rises to their cost basis, as they may worry that the surge won’t
last. Similarly, they react by accumulating further instead during
bullish periods, as they could see their cost basis as a profitable
point for buying more. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: NVT
Golden Cross Suggests BTC Oversold As BTC has been able to surge
past this line recently, it wouldn’t appear that the STHs are
offering resistance right now, and thus, a bullish sentiment is
still dominant among them. BTC Price Bitcoin had recovered above
$66,000 yesterday, but the coin has since seen some pullback as its
price is now down to $64,800. Featured image from Dall-E,
CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Mina (COIN:MINAUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 9 2024 まで 10 2024
Mina (COIN:MINAUSD)
過去 株価チャート
から 10 2023 まで 10 2024