eastunder
1年前
The 93% Plunge in This Stock Proves Artificial Intelligence (AI) Doesn't Guarantee Positive Returns for Investors
Anthony Di Pizio, The Motley Fool
Sat, February 24, 2024 at 5:30 AM MST·5 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c071edba-4bb3-3c5e-a0b4-ee364dab52de/the-93%25-plunge-in-this-stock.html
Stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, C3.ai, and Advanced Micro Devices (to name a few) have surged over the past year. Much of those returns have been driven by one thing: artificial intelligence (AI).
In fact, Goldman Sachs says a record-high 36% of all companies in the S&P 500 mentioned AI in their conference calls with investors in the fourth quarter of 2023. Clearly, there's a belief this technology will attract investors.
However, Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) proves AI isn't always a magic bullet. Its stock went public in 2020 at $20 per share. It surged over 2,000% to an all-time high of $401 in less than a year, but it has since lost 93% of that value to trade at just $26.19 as of this writing -- despite being one of only a few companies successfully monetizing AI.
I'll explain the decline below, and whether the steep drop in Upstart stock could be a buying opportunity.
AI can't overcome surging interest rates
Banks and financial institutions tend to use the FICO credit scoring system when assessing the creditworthiness of a potential borrower, but Upstart believes that approach is outdated. After all, FICO only factors in five metrics like a person's repayment history and existing debts. Upstart's AI-driven models, on the other hand, measure 1,600 different data points to gain a better understanding of overall creditworthiness.
As a result, Upstart says its algorithm approves 44% more loans, at an interest rate that is 36% lower than traditional assessment methods. Plus, 89% of approvals are instant and entirely automated, which is a win for Upstart's bank partners, because analyzing over 1,000 data points manually (with human assessors) would be incredibly time-consuming and expensive.
As a loan originator, Upstart doesn't lend any money itself. Instead, the company uses its technology to approve loans for more than 100 banks. Upstart's models were originally trained to assess unsecured personal loans, but the company has expanded into car loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and that list will probably continue to grow.
Unfortunately, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from 0.25% to 5.50% between Mar. 2022 and Aug. 2023, which sent loan demand plummeting among consumers. Borrowing money is now much harder and more expensive than it was just a couple of years ago.
Upstart originated 437,659 loans in 2023, which was down a whopping 61% from 1.1 million loans in 2022 -- and that number was already down 5% from 2021.
Upstart's revenue plunged in 2023 as a result
Upstart delivered $560.4 million in revenue during 2023, down 38% from the previous year. That forced the company to drastically adjust its cost structure. It slashed 20% of its workforce at the start of 2023 and reduced its marketing spending 63% for the year. Any time a company cuts costs -- especially marketing expenses -- it becomes even harder to generate growth.
Unfortunately, those reduced expenses weren't enough to prevent Upstart's net loss from more than doubling to $240 million in 2023. Falling revenue and soaring losses are a surefire recipe for a lower stock price.
Upstart's management team expects the broader economic conditions to normalize in 2024, which will be a tailwind for its business. The Fed is also forecasting three interest rate cuts this year, and Wall Street thinks there could be as many as four cuts. That would take some pressure off consumers and likely reignite demand for credit.
Some of that optimism is baked into Upstart's forecasts. It expects to deliver $125 million in revenue for the first quarter, which would be a 21% increase year over year.
Is Upstart an AI stock to buy on the dip?
Despite the turbulent year in 2023, Upstart's technology is a game changer. The company said 92% of automatically approved applications converted to funded loans in the fourth quarter of 2023 -- that's more than 3x higher than the industry average of 27%.
Consumers tend to go cold when dealing with lengthy approval processes, so automation can lead to substantially more loans for Upstart's bank partners.
Plus, the addressable opportunity in the lending industry is enormous. Around $3 trillion worth of loans are originated in the U.S. each year across four categories: personal loans, car loans, mortgages, and small business loans. Upstart is active in the first two, and it has exposure to the home loan segment through its HELOC product, which is now active in 12 states.
The company has a long and potentially slow recovery ahead, but Wall Street thinks its full-year revenue will return to a modest growth rate of 8% in 2024. Current estimates also point to an acceleration to 23% growth in 2025.
Therefore, given the steep 93% drop in Upstart stock from its all-time high, now could be a great time to buy -- not just because of its AI pedigree but because its business might genuinely be on the upswing. However, investors should be mindful of the stock's severe volatility, which can be unnerving.
eastunder
1年前
Is Upstart About to Solve Its Biggest Problem?
Jeremy Bowman, The Motley Fool
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7937b29f-9abd-38d4-968f-eece2eb52cf5/is-upstart-about-to-solve-its.html
Sat, February 17, 2024 at 5:55 AM MST
Few companies have suffered as much from the Federal Reserve's interest rate campaign as Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST). Shares of the AI-based consumer lending company have fallen as much as 97% from peak to trough and are still down more than 90% from their peak in 2021. During the heady days of the pandemic, Upstart was growing at a blistering pace with revenue more than tripling, and it reported mid-teens profit margins even on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis.
However, the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control have quashed demand for Upstart's loans, and the regional banking crisis also made its lending partners more cautious about taking on its loans.
Investors have had to be patient as Upstart's business has been down while rates remain high, and they got some more bad news in the company's fourth-quarter earnings report after Upstart beat estimates but offered disappointing first-quarter guidance. The stock was down by double-digit percentages in after-hours trading on Tuesday.
Upstart's wheels are still spinning
Overall, the results showed the business is in a steady but weak state due to the macroeconomic challenges above. Revenue in the quarter was $140.3 million, which was down 4% on a year-over-year basis, but up 4% on a sequential basis. That beat the consensus of $134.9 million.
Upstart originated 129,664 loans for a total of $1.3 billion, down 19% from the quarter a year ago, which reflects weak demand. On the bottom line, it eked out an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) profit of $0.6 million, but reported a GAAP loss of $42.4 million. On an adjusted basis, it lost $9.7 million, or $0.11 a share, which was slightly better than estimates at a per-share loss of $0.14.
Upstart's guidance was the real problem for investors. Management said it saw revenue slowing to $125 million in the first quarter of 2024 and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $33 million. That forecast indicates that Upstart isn't expecting to get any help from the Fed or macro conditions to start the year.
Something needs to change at Upstart
Ostensibly, Upstart's technology is still effective. Every quarter, it trots out data showing how much better its AI model performs against Fair Isaac's FICO score in assessing default risk.
However, what seems to be a competitive advantage hasn't been enough to drive new business to the platform or attract lending partners.
Given those challenges, it may be time for Upstart to try something new. There's no guarantee that interest rates will fall this year, despite the Fed's earlier forecast calling for three rate cuts, and considering the low unemployment and overall strength of the economy, Upstart may need to find a way to drive growth in a high interest rate environment.
The good news for investors is that a new product may be on the way. On the earnings call, CEO Dave Girouard said, "We've also identified a somewhat different opportunity to assist our lending partners in periods of reduced liquidity when banks tend to prioritize retaining existing customers over acquiring new ones."
Girouard also promised that the company is "increasing our innovation on the money supply," in order to find new lending partners and streamline those relationships. It also announced a deal with Ares, a leading global alternative investment manager, which will acquire $300 million of personal loans from Upstart.
Finally, Upstart is also increasing its investments in countercyclical offerings, including its HELOC product, which has reached $5 million in cumulative originations since it launched in 2023.
Can Upstart turn its stock's performance around?
Upstart stock is likely to get a boost if interest rates come down or there are signs of the economy weakening, but the company's initiatives to drive business right now may be more important for turning the stock around.
It will likely take a few quarters or more for those initiatives to show up on the bottom line, but investors should pay attention to the company's initiatives beyond loan originations as that could be key to stable profits.
If rates remain elevated, Upstart will need to pivot its business to deliver returns for investors. At the very least, management is working toward that goal.
eastunder
1年前
UPST earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2023.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/11/07/upstart-upst-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript/
Dave Girouard -- Chief Executive Officer
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our third quarter 2023 results. I'm Dave Girouard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart. While 2023 continues to be a difficult environment for consumer lending, I can state with confidence that we're making rapid progress in building the world's first and best AI lending platform.
We do this with a focus on our mission and with an optimistic eye toward the transformation of an industry that is inevitable over the next decade and beyond. In the third quarter, rates were at an all-time high in our marketplace, higher than we expected them to be, reflecting both decades high interest rates and significantly elevated risk in the consumer economy. This is not a path we would have chosen and is obviously not constructive to our growth, but it reflects the reality of operating responsibly in this environment. That said, we believe the economic trends continue in the right direction.
Inflation is waning. Interest rates, presumably, are peaking or have peaked. The jobs market remain strong, and many retailers are suggesting that consumer spending is softening. We continue to look for a return to normal for personal savings rates, which are highly correlated with risk and therefore with pricing on our platform.
From a financial perspective, we'd, of course, prefer to be growing quickly, but this is a time when it's wise to be operating in a conservative mode. In that light, we were EBITDA positive for the second straight quarter. Our contribution margins are still near record highs. And finally, we remain confident that our personal loan models are calibrated, and Upstart-powered credit is performing as expected right now.
Not only are we financially superior, we also continue to invest in our AI platform. Last quarter, we launched Model 15.0, the latest version of our core personal loan underwriting model. This new version increased our model accuracy by about 15%, the largest improvement we have seen since we began tracking improvements in 2018 by about a factor of 1.5. Our previous most impactful model launch added personalized timing curves, what we have come to call our loan-month model, for a giant accuracy improvement.
This version improves the accuracy and precision of these personalized timing curves and also adds personalized macro effects for the first time. Last week, we also launched an upgraded version of the Upstart Macro Index to account for seasonal patterns and repayment behaviors. Over the last decade, we've measured a distinct seasonal pattern with respect to loan repayments. The time from January to April represents the best seasonal loan performance in our experience, likely due to borrowers receiving extra cash in the form of state and federal tax refunds.
Performance then generally degrades marginally each month until the early fall and then flattens or modestly improve through the end of the year. With a seasonally adjusted UMI, we'll offer a more accurate lens into changes in the financial health of consumers, and that should result in less volatility in loan pricing and approvals from month to month. Our auto retail platform saw a huge boost recently as we partnered with a major OEM to implement our software in support of the launch of a new vehicle. Our technology powered their consumer reservation, deposit, and customization system for this amazing new vehicle and was implemented quickly at more than 99% of all their dealerships in the U.S.
We see this as a harbinger to a future where consumers can choose exactly the car they want online and have it delivered directly to them with none of the friction and inconvenience many associate with the car-buying experience. We're partnering with leaders in the industry to unlock this future. Separately, we also expanded our roster of car dealerships that have gone live with Upstart Lending from 61 to 69, and we've added support for rooftops in Arkansas, Maryland, and Virginia, expanding our reach to 70% of the U.S. population.
We also signed agreements with two of the largest national nonprime auto lenders to help fund our auto lending solutions. I'm also excited about the progress with our home equity product. As of today, the Upstart HELOC is available to homeowners in Colorado, Michigan, Washington, and Utah, and we expect to be live in Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Washington, D.C. in the coming weeks.
We have received encouraging feedback from applicants about how fast and easy the process is, even at this nascent stage. Our home equity product helps diversify our business in two critical ways. First, it's a very prime product with annual loss rates expected to be 1% or less. And second, it's a countercyclical to a refinance product because it's an effective way to tap equity in a home during a higher-rate environment, such as we have today.
More than 90% of HELOCs are offered by banks and credit unions today, so it's a good fit with the Upstart platform and our partners. We'll bring some pricing advantage to the HELOC market over time, but there are two predominant advantages we expect to see sooner. The first is speed and ease of access because the banks and credit unions that originate most HELOCs today take more than a month, on average, for the applicant to receive funds. We're aiming for less than five days.
Second, our existing platform unlocks customer acquisition advantages that others can't match. Each month, more than 80,000 homeowners apply for a personal loan on Upstart. Some large fraction of them can and will be better served with a home equity product that offers a lower rate. After all, personal loans and HELOCs are just two different ways to solve the same customer need.
By integrating our personal loan and HELOC application processes, which we expect to do before year end, will take a giant step toward becoming customer-centric rather than product-centric. The trade-offs between price, time, and effort will change over time and will help applicants choose the best product for them. Now let's talk about the funding side. Despite the difficult lending environment, we have seen some great success with credit unions in the last couple of years.
We attribute this to the fact that credit unions are extremely focused on delivering the products that their members want with an intense focus on the quality of experience. They also map well into current and future Upstart products with approximately $29 billion in personal loans, $266 billion in auto loans, and $82 billion in HELOCs funded by credit unions each year. So we're doubling down on credit unions by building features and capabilities that will strengthen our partnerships. In recent weeks and months, we upgraded the Upstart Performance Console to enhance visibility into originations and loan performance trends, improved connectivity to the core systems that power credit unions' financials and operations, deliver features that make it easier for new members to join the credit union, and enhanced our partners' ability to cross-sell other products to existing members.
We're also unlocking loan participation where a loan originated by one credit union can be fractionalized and sold to a network of other credit unions. This significantly improves liquidity in the system and allows us to reach the long tail of small credit unions in an economic and constructive way. On the capital market side, we continue to pursue a large number of committed funding partnerships in order to strengthen the reliability of loan funding on Upstart. With banks retrenching, paying more for deposits and likely facing even more imposing capital requirements, we believe it's important to find alternative sources of funding, even for the primest of loans.
We're in discussions about partnerships and structures that can enable at-scale funding across the entire credit spectrum and are excited to innovate in the space. Lastly, we're investing significantly in servicing and collections, a vital part of our business where improvements can go directly to the bottom line. We recently launched a new version of our funded borrower dashboard, which is the experience borrowers see while in the process of repaying a loan. We also recently launched our first mobile application, which is initially focused on loan repayment.
Servicing and collections is clearly an area where AI can lead to better results, and we believe the surface area upon which we can apply our AI expertise is broad. We've brought some incredible new talent to this aspect of our business and are excited about its potential. To wrap up my remarks today, there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about Upstart. First, even with our rates at all-time highs, we continue to grow fee revenue and invest in our teams and core AI.
Second, our models are learning and improving at an unprecedented pace, creating more separation from traditional approaches to lending. Third, the competition to serve mainstream American consumers with responsible lending products has waned considerably, given the challenges in the markets in recent years. And fourth, we believe there's an inevitable period of normalization on both rates and risk levels' return to long-term averages. That will provide Upstart with a tailwind over a multiyear period in the future.
We aren't waiting around for that period, but we'll certainly be ready when it arrives. Speaking of the future, last week, I had the privilege of participating in the U.S. Senate's AI insight forum. It was a very productive bipartisan discussion on how to maximize the benefits of AI while mitigating risks.
I focus my remarks on the lessons we've learned on our journey to use AI responsibly to help establish America as a global leader in AI-enabled lending. Hearing about the challenges other industries are facing deploying AI reinforced to me that lending is one of the most compelling examples of how AI can clearly improve the lives of all Americans. I left more excited than ever about the opportunities ahead of us. Thank you.
And I'd like now to turn it over to Sanjay, our chief financial officer, to walk through our Q3 2023 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?
Sanjay Datta -- Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We're coming off a quarter of mixed results in Q3 with narrow misses on revenue and margins against success nonetheless in maintaining a positive adjusted EBITDA and sequential growth in fee revenue. We continue to operate in a challenging and fluid macro environment. Real consumption continues to hover at levels which we believe to be unsustainable.
Incomes continue to lag consumption growth despite the positive trend in labor participation as the ongoing decline in government transfers still receding from stimulus era highs offsets any wage gains from the return to work. The residual savings rates in the economy have consequently continued to languish at historically low levels. This consumer reality continues to be reflected in elevated borrower default trends in our Upstart Macro Index, now adjusted for seasonality, which indicates a stable level of loan defaults throughout most of this past year, albeit one which remains remarkably high. Our ability to approve borrowers in this environment has remained the constraint on platform growth for most of the past quarter.
On the funding side of our business, the banks continue to manage balance sheets conservatively and seek to unwind existing asset positions in secondary markets. The decline in aggregate deposit base, which started in mid-2022, has now thankfully eased, but anemic savings rates are so far hindering a rebound in liquidity. Correspondingly, the institutional funding markets remain distracted with a bounty of trading opportunities coming from the banking sector. On the other hand, significant amounts of institutional capital has been recently raised for upcoming deployment into credit, and the volume of discussion and negotiation aimed at setting up for 2024 remains encouraging.
With these items as context, here are some financial highlights from the third quarter of 2023. Revenue from fees was $147 million in Q3, slightly below our guidance of $150 million and marginally up from $144 million last quarter. Our underwriting of primer higher-income borrowers has become more conservative over this past quarter as their loss rates accelerate and converge with the broader default trends across the borrower spectrum. This has been a headwind for our volumes and fee revenues over this past quarter versus our contemplated guidance.
Net interest income was negative $12 million in Q3, owing to continued elevated charge-offs in our R&D portfolio, as well as a one-time change in our charge-off process for loans and bankruptcy, that had the effect of pulling some charges forward into Q3. Taken together, net revenue for Q3 came in at $135 million, slightly below guidance and representing a 14% contraction year over year. The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q3 was approximately 114,000 loans, up roughly 5% sequentially and representing over 70,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of $11,000 was up 9% versus the same period last year and sequentially flat.
Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric which we define as revenue from fees, minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 64% in Q3, up 11 percentage points from 54% last year, but 1 percentage point below our guidance for the quarter. We continue to benefit from high levels of loan processing automation and fraud modeling efficacy, achieving another new high in percentage of loans fully automated at 88%. Operating expenses were $178 million in Q3, down 17% year over year but up 5% sequentially, as increasing sales and marketing spend somewhat offset continued savings in engineering and product. Altogether, Q3 GAAP net loss was $40.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $2.3 million, both roughly in line with guidance.
Adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.05 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $84.4 million. We ended the quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $776 million before the consolidation of securitized loans, down sequentially from $838 million the prior quarter. Of that balance, loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally auto loans, sat at $447 million of the total. In addition to loans owned directly, we have consolidated an additional $196 million of loans that were sold from our balance sheet into an ABS transaction earlier this quarter from which we retained a total net equity exposure of $43 million.
As described in our prior earnings call, this transaction was somewhat unusual for us and designed to serve as a visible market reset, as well as a public vote of confidence, in our current degree of model calibration. Our corporate liquidity position at the end of Q3 remains strong with $517 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and approximately $425 million in net loan equity at fair value. We continue to watch for signs of moderating consumption, improved savings rates, and reduced credit defaults in our economy as precursors to a broader normalization of consumer fiscal health. Until we see such signals, our operating assumption is that the macro environment will remain constant.
And in such a scenario, our business growth will predominantly come from model upgrades and from improved underwriting accuracy, both of which we consider to be squarely in our set of core technical competencies and ones in which we have demonstrated a strong historical record of delivering growth over the years. With this context in mind, for Q4 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $135 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $150 million and net interest income of approximately negative $15 million, contribution margin of approximately 62%, net income of approximately negative $48 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $14 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately zero, and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 85.6 million shares. That is all for our prepared remarks this afternoon. A shout-out to all of the Upstart teams who have kept their heads down and their results strong over the course of the past year spent in an expecting external environment.
Our business today is a much stronger one in a number of very tangible ways than it was before the onset of this post stimulus hangover. And when the winds eventually settle, your work will be manifest and brightly shine. With that, Dave and I are happy to open up the call to any questions. Operator?
Continued at
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/11/07/upstart-upst-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript/
eastunder
2年前
1 Unstoppable Stock Down 85% You'll Regret Not Buying on the Dip
By Anthony Di Pizio – Jul 25, 2023 at 6:10AM
(This feels a little pumpish ...but it also has some info in it I was unaware of.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/705b9915-0fbd-3672-ba01-67941926c8f4/1-unstoppable-stock-down-85%25.html
KEY POINTS
Shares of Upstart have traded as high as $401 and as low as $12 over the last three years.
Investors were excited by the company's AI-driven lending models in 2021, before concern set in last year.But Upstart's models, and its business, appear to be holding up well, leading to a surge in its stock in 2023.
Shares of Upstart have surged some 350% in 2023, but there could be more upside ahead.
Shares of Upstart (UPST 16.96%) are sitting on a whopping gain of 353% in 2023, yet they are still trading 85% below their all-time high. How is that possible?
(It was making money then and now it's not? )
The stock listed publicly in 2020 at $20, surged as high as $401 in 2021, and then collapsed to a low around $12 late last year. Therefore, its 2023 return has come off an extremely low base relative to where the stock has traded previously.
You might be wondering what triggered that roller-coaster ride in the span of just three years. I'll tell you -- and explain why Upstart stock might be a buy now.
(Please do)
Upstart is disrupting the lending business
Upstart is an artificial intelligence (AI) software company focused on helping banks and financial institutions measure the creditworthiness of potential borrowers more accurately. It's no easy task; the company is up against Fair Isaac's FICO credit scoring system, which has been entrenched in the banking industry for more than three decades.
Unhooking lenders from the comfort of what they know is a real challenge, but Upstart's proposition is attractive. Its AI models can assess 1,600 different data points on a borrower so quickly that 84% of approvals are instant and fully automated, with no human intervention.
By comparison, FICO looks at just five core data points, and it can take a human assessor days or even weeks to come to an approval decision.
At the height of the poandemic during 2020 and 2021, interest rates were adjusted to record lows and the U.S. government flooded the economy with stimulus money. Consumers took full advantage and went on a borrowing binge.
Upstart processed a record number of loan originations, and its revenue more than tripled year over year in 2021. Its stock price followed along and hit an all-time high of $401.
But the tide turned in 2022 when those conditions reversed. Surging inflation forced the Federal Reserve to embark on the most aggressive campaign to hike interest rates in its history, and investors grew concerned that Upstart's AI models hadn't been battle tested in such a harsh economic environment.
All the while, consumer demand for credit plunged, which caused Upstart's revenue growth to flatten out.
It triggered a collapse in the stock price, sending shares as low as $12. But investors weren't the only ones panicking; Upstart's funding sources dried up, forcing the company to absorb some loans on its own balance sheet. That added a whole new dimension of risk to the business.
But Upstart is almost out of the woods
The company embarked on a mission to prove its AI models were holding up just fine. It has published a series of data points over the past year showing they're still significantly more accurate than traditional methods of assessment.
In summary, 53% fewer Upstart loans end in default compared to loans assessed by the big banks. That means Upstart's AI can write 173% more loans at the exact same default rate.
Those figures are likely to improve over time because the company continues to train its models on data generated from 90,000 new loan repayments each day. AI algorithms are like living neural networks: When those borrowers either make their repayments or default, Upstart's models learn and adjust accordingly as risks evolve.
That has profound social impacts, too. Upstart's algorithm approves 43% more Black borrowers and 46% more Hispanic borrowers than traditional methods of assessment. Plus, it approves them at a significantly lower interest rate. Not only is that great for those consumers, but it also creates an opportunity for Upstart's funding partners to access new markets that previously fell through the cracks.
This has culminated in a series of wins for the company in 2023. First, it had 99 total funding partners in the first quarter (ended March 31), which was almost double the number it had a year ago. Some of those partners committed more than $2 billion in funding, which will ensure Upstart won't have to put its balance sheet at risk again.
Second, in May, an investment fund called Castlelake agreed to buy $4 billion worth of Upstart consumer loans in a massive vote of confidence.
Why Upstart stock is a buy now
Buying a stock after it plunges 85% from its all-time high is never easy. But Upstart has stabilized its business and is in a great position to capitalize when consumers' demand for credit eventually reignites.
On that note, the company is eyeing a series of lucrative long-term opportunities. Right now, it operates in the personal loan and auto loan segments, which see about $946 billion in originations each year. For context, Upstart has originated only $32 billion loans in its history, so it hasn't even scratched the surface of those addressable markets.
But it gets better. Upstart has highlighted a $644 billion annual opportunity in small-business loans and a whopping $2.7 trillion annual opportunity in the mortgage market. The company hasn't entered either segment, but doing so would quadruple its current addressable opportunity.
Wall Street analysts expect Upstart to deliver $549 million in revenue in 2023, which would be a 34% drop compared to 2022. But the company's recent growth struggles might end there, because the Street predicts revenue will bounce back 41% to $773 million in 2024.
Considering Upstart's lending models have just proved their durability in one of the worst interest-rate shocks in history, the company could be poised for growth long into the future. That makes the 85% discount in its stock price an attractive risk-reward proposition.
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