Labor Forecast Predicts 9.3% Decrease in Demand for Temporary Workers in 2024 Third Quarter
2024年8月1日 - 1:22AM
Demand for temporary workers in the United States is expected to
decrease 9.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the 2024 third
quarter, when compared with the same period in 2023, according to
the Palmer Forecast™, released today.
The Palmer Forecast™ indicated a 6.6% decrease in
temporary help for the 2024 second quarter. Actual results as
reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came in slightly
lower, at a decrease of 7.2%.
The BLS reported a decrease of 88,500 temporary
help jobs for the 2024 in second quarter. Temp help jobs decreased
by 48,900 in June 2024. To date, 98,000 jobs have been lost in
2024, an average of 13,000 jobs per month. There was a decline of
217,000 temp jobs in 2023, and a decline of 106,000 temp jobs in
2022. Temp help jobs growth in 2021 was strong, with a total gain
of 352,000 jobs, and an average of 29,300 jobs added per month,
compared with the prior two years, when 201,000 temp jobs were lost
in 2020, and 27,000 temp jobs were lost in 2019, according to the
BLS. In 2018, more than 99,000 temp help jobs were added over
2017.
A total of 8.1 million open jobs were reported by
the BLS as of July 2, 2024. The BLS also reported that non-farm
payroll employment increased by 206,000 jobs in June 2024, which
was in line with consensus estimates. For the 2024 second quarter,
there were 177,000 non-farm jobs added per month. For the 2023
full year, there were 2.96 million non-farm jobs added, an average
of 247,000 jobs per month. There were 4.5 million non-farm jobs
added in 2022, and 6.4 million jobs added in 2021. To put this in
perspective, there were 9.4 million jobs lost in 2020, and 2.1
million total jobs added for 2019. For 2018, a total of 2.6 million
new jobs were created, versus 2.1 million new jobs in 2017.
The key categories of jobs created in March are as
follows:
- Total Non-Farm:
+206,000
- Private Sector:
+136,000
- Healthcare:
+82,000
- Government:
+70,000
- Constructions:
+27,000
- Leisure and
Hospitality: +7,000
- Retail Trade:
-8,500
- Professional and
Business Services: -17,000
- Temp Help:
-48,900
In June 2024, the labor participation rate was up
10 bps from May 2024, at 62.6%, and it has been in a narrow range
of 64.4% to 61.9% since June of 2020. The U3, commonly referred to
as the unemployment rate, increased 10 bps to 4.1% in June versus
May.
As reported by the BLS, the rate of unemployment
for workers with college degrees in June 2024 increased 30 bps to
2.4%, from May 2024. The unemployment rate for workers with less
than a high school education was unchanged at 5.9%. The U6
unemployment rate, which tracks those who are unemployed, as well
as those who are underemployed and are working part-time for
economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.4% in June from May. The U6
rate is considered the rate that most broadly depicts those most
affected by the last economic downturn and measures the rate of
discouraged workers.
“Further signs of a slow-down are evident in the
temp employment market, and until GDP growth resumes to a stronger
level and interest rates start declining, growth will be
nonexistent, and temp help demand will remain soft,” said Greg
Palmer, founder and managing director of G. Palmer &
Associates, an Orange County, California-based human capital
advisory firm that specializes in workforce solutions. “Another
indicator to watch is the temp help penetration rate, which
measures temp help as a percentage of total employment. In June
2024, the temp help penetration rate decreased slightly to 1.68% of
the total labor market, compared with an all-time high of 2.08%,
achieved in February 2022, and a pre-pandemic level of 1.57%, which
serves as another indication of temporary jobs lessening.
“The American Staffing Association (ASA) Staffing
Index also was down, closing at a value of 88 on July 14, 2024,
which was 10.6% below the same period last year,” Palmer added.
About the Palmer Forecast™The Palmer
Forecast™ is based, in part, on BLS and other key indicators. The
model was initially developed by the A. Gary Anderson Center for
Economic Research at Chapman University and serves as an indicator
of economic activity. Companies that employ temporary staff use the
forecast as a guide to navigate through fluctuating economic
conditions in managing their workforce to meet business
demands.
About G. Palmer & AssociatesG. Palmer
& Associates, founded in 2006, provides advisory services in
the human capital sector. Founder Greg Palmer has served on the
board of the American Staffing Association and was president and
chief executive officer of RemedyTemp, Inc., one of the nation’s
largest temporary staffing companies, prior to its sale in June
2006. For more information,
visit www.GPalmerandAssociates.com.
Contact:
Roger Pondel/Judy Lin
PondelWilkinson Inc.
310.279.5980
Philip Boronow, Analyst
G. Palmer & Associates
949.201.7296
www.GPalmerandAssociates.com