U.S. Middle Market Performance Remains Consistent
2024年7月10日 - 6:30AM
ビジネスワイヤ(英語)
Private equity backed companies show solid
revenue and earnings growth, consistent with the last 7
quarters.
The Golub Capital Altman Index can provide
early insight into financial performance of public companies and
GDP in advance of earnings season.
Middle market private companies in the Golub Capital Altman
Index grew earnings by 11% during the first two months of the
second quarter of 2024. Revenue grew 7% during the same period.
Lawrence E. Golub, CEO of Golub Capital, said, “Q2 2024
performance was once again strong, marking the seventh consecutive
quarter of robust median revenue and earnings growth for companies
in the Golub Capital Altman Index. That said, there was notable
divergence between the relatively less strong performance of the
Consumer sector and the double-digit earnings growth of the
Healthcare, Industrials and Technology sectors. We have been
anticipating a reduced growth rate in the Consumer sector as the
effects of pandemic-era stimulus and excess savings continue to run
off. These numbers are actually a little better than expected in
that context, as wage growth, job creation, immigration and low
unemployment have kept consumer spending reasonably healthy. We
believe the balance of headwinds and tailwinds facing consumers
will be an important dynamic for investors to watch in the second
half of 2024.”
Dr. Edward I. Altman said, “The strong Q2 2024 performance of
Healthcare, Industrial and Technology companies in the Golub
Capital Altman Index sample is an encouraging sign heading into
public company earnings season. At the same time, we would caution
against over-optimism; recent macroeconomic data has been mixed,
with strong June jobs growth appearing alongside weakness in areas
like housing starts and the ISM Services index. Another economic
headwind in the first half of 2024 was the challenge to many firms
to meet escalating interest payments on their higher levels of
debt. We believe it’s prudent for investors to remain humble about
risk and uncertainty in today’s environment and to focus on
investments and strategies that are likely to perform well across a
wide range of potential scenarios.”
The Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which is produced by
Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I.
Altman, is the first and longest-running index based on actual
revenue and earnings (defined as earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortization, or “EBITDA”) for middle market
companies. It measures the median revenue and earnings growth of
approximately 110–150 private U.S. companies in the loan portfolio
of Golub Capital, a leading middle market lender. Reported shortly
before public company quarterly earnings season, the GCAI has
served as a reliable indicator of the overall growth rates in
revenue and earnings of public companies in market indexes such as
the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600 (“S&P 600”), as well
as quarterly Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”), according to
statistical back-testing dating back to 2012, when data began to be
tracked.
The size and diversity of the Golub Capital loan portfolio
ensure that the confidentiality of all company-specific information
used in the index is maintained in both the aggregate and industry
segment data.
We believe the results (1) are representative of the general
performance of middle market companies, which are a major
contributor to U.S. private sector employment; (2) can be easily
compared to the performance of the public companies that make up
major stock indexes; (3) are relevant to the aggregate economic
performance of the U.S. economy and (4) provide timely information
for the investment community.
The companies in the GCAI operate in a wide range of industries.
Results are provided for the total universe of GCAI constituents
and by industry segment. Given the index’s limited exposure to
Financials, Utilities, Energy and Materials, comparisons are made
to the S&P 500 and S&P 600 as well as to “adjusted”
versions of those indexes that exclude the aforementioned
sectors.
About the Golub Capital Middle Market Report
The Golub Capital Middle Market Report analyzes the results of
the Golub Capital Altman Index (“GCAI”), which measures the median
revenue and earnings growth of approximately 110–150 privately
owned companies in the Golub Capital loan portfolio for the first
two months of each calendar quarter. It compares these results to
the financial performance of well-known market indexes, including
the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. The GCAI is produced by
Golub Capital in collaboration with credit expert Dr. Edward I.
Altman. Effective Q2 2022, the GCAI excludes Golub Capital
portfolio companies that have recurring revenue-based credit
facilities. The data referenced herein may not reflect all
companies in the loan portfolio of Golub Capital during the time
periods indicated.
About Golub Capital
Golub Capital is a market-leading, award-winning direct lender
and experienced private credit manager. We specialize in delivering
reliable, creative and compelling financing solutions to companies
backed by private equity sponsors. Our sponsor finance expertise
also forms the foundation of our Broadly Syndicated Loan and Credit
Opportunities investment programs. We nurture long-term, win-win
partnerships that inspire repeat business from private equity
sponsors and investors.
As of April 1, 2024, Golub Capital had over 925 employees and
over $70 billion of capital under management, a gross measure of
invested capital including leverage. The firm has offices in North
America, Europe and Asia. For more information, please visit
golubcapital.com.
About Dr. Edward I. Altman
A leading expert on credit markets, Dr. Edward I. Altman is the
Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the NYU Stern School
of Business, and Director of Research in Credit and Debt Markets at
the NYU Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions. He
is currently an advisor to several foreign central banks. Professor
Altman has published or edited two-dozen books and over 150
articles in scholarly finance, accounting and economic journals. He
has been inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of
Fame, served as President of the Financial Management Association,
was an FMA Fellow, and was amongst the inaugural inductees into the
Turnaround Management Association Hall of Fame. He received his MBA
and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los
Angeles.
Important Disclosure
The Golub Capital Altman Index is provided as an indicator only
and does not constitute investment advice or the offer to sell or a
solicitation to buy any security. Some of these statements
constitute forward-looking statements, which may be predictions
about future events, future performance, or future financial
conditions. Some of these statements reflect opinions based upon
the data presented in the Index, and these opinions may be
incorrect. Actual results could vary materially from those implied
or expressed in such forward-looking statements for any reason. The
Golub Capital Altman Index has been created on the basis of
information provided by third-party sources that are believed to be
reliable, but the information has not been verified independently
by Golub Capital. Golub Capital makes no warranty or representation
as to the accuracy or completeness of such third-party
information.
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