UPDATE: Navistar Sees 11% Improvement In 2010 Truck Sales
2009年9月11日 - 1:37AM
Dow Jones News
Commercial truck and engine maker Navistar International Corp.
(NAV) expects no better than a modest improvement in commercial
truck sales next year, as the shipping industry stages a halting
recovery.
Navistar on Thursday predicted North American commercial truck
sales will increase by about 11% next year, discounting the
likelihood of a robust upturn in consumer and manufacturing
activity that would require a significant expansion of truck
fleets.
The Illinois company expects industrywide retail sales of
medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses in the U.S. and Canada to
be in a range of 175,000 to 215,000 vehicles in 2010. With the
midpoint of that range at 195,000 trucks, that's about an 11%
improvement over this year's sales range midpoint, which is a
45-year low.
Navistar expects to see improved order volume at the start of
its 2010 fiscal year Nov. 1 but anticipates demand softening by the
middle of the year before gradually increasing again toward the end
of 2010. The company said the bulk of its truck orders are coming
from large trucking lines.
"Only the big guys are buying," said Chairman and Chief
Executive Daniel Ustian during a conference call with analysts,
adding that "80% of our orders are from high-volume fleets. When
will the small guys buy? We have not put that into our
forecast."
Navistar is the leading producer of medium-duty trucks by sales
and currently holds a second-place share of the heavy-duty truck
market.
The company late Wednesday reported an unexpected loss for its
fiscal third quarter and lowered its fiscal-year earnings target
for the second-straight quarter.
The news sent Navistar's shares down 7.6% to $42.19 in recent
trading.
The loss largely stemmed from a decline in truck sales,
resulting in a $28 million operating loss in the company's
truck-making segment. Navistar's truck operations were idle for 39
days in the quarter beyond the regularly scheduled summer
shutdown.
Navistar has been able to offset lower revenue from trucks
during the three-year long slump in commercial truck sales with
military truck orders. The company said it expects military truck
revenue to come in at $2.7 billion this year. But Navistar lost two
major military truck contracts this summer to rival truck builder
Oshkosh Corp. (OSK).
"We were disappointed to say the least," Ustian said about the
contracts. "Even without that, we have a sustainable
$2-billion-a-year [military] business." Navistar has filed a
protest with the Department of Defense over the contract awarded to
Oshkosh for a medium-sized tactical truck. Ustian said the company
has questions about the cost evaluations used by the Pentagon.
"We were beaten and not just by a little amount," Ustian said.
"It doesn't make sense to us."
-By Bob Tita, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4129;
robert.tita@dowjones.com