nowwhat2
3年前
https://ceo.ca/dan?80327da5a69a
@EpsteinResearch I can't understand why $DAN is not moving higher. A Moroccan phosphate rock benchmark price is up to $176.67/tonne at 12/31/21 from a low of $70.75/tonne on 4/30/20, +150%. Inflation is running hot (good for hard assets / commodities), and Arianne is funded through 2022, and well into 2023. The cycle for most food commodities like corn & soybeans has turned positive along with fertilizer prices. After the Omicron wave passes, we could see a strong Spring planting season, further supporting prices.
Arianne has been approached by more than 1 battery supplier and/or Auto OEM about supplying high-purity phosphate concentrate to the LFP battery market for electric vehicles. This is a segment with demand growing at a 25%+ CAGR that didn't even exist when Arianne did its BFS/DFS back in 2013. There is only a handful of phosphate rock projects in the world that have similar concentrate grades & size. Mgmt. claims to have the single largest & single purest (concentrate) in one of the safest jurisdictions. Regarding purity, very low radioactive & heavy metal content vs. peer projects.
ESG mandates suggest that Arianne's production will readily find a home in the U.S. & Canada -- edging out less secure supply from Asia, northern Africa, & the Middle East. Arianne's output of 3M tonnes/yr. will NOT flood the market, but would generate ~C$500M/yr. in EBITDA at current prices. With the help of a strong strategic/financial partner, this project could be in production in 2024 or 2025.
Does N. America want to rely on security of supply over the next few decades from N. Africa & the Middle East, where 75% of phosphate rock currently comes from? This seems like a no brainer, trading at under 10% EV/after-tax (NPV(8%). I challenge anyone to find a cheaper valuation for a BFS/DFS stage company! A company with 2 off-takes, signed First Nation agreements and a fully permitted project, with expected strong support from the Quebec gov't & various investment funds active in Quebec & in Canada. What am I missing?
0 12 Jan 2022, 08:22
@InvestThor I have enough shares until the approaches lead to something 0 12 Jan 2022, 08:30
@fl @EpsteinResearch where are you getting your numbers from? North America (US since no domestic production in Canada) is a net exporter of phosphate. Fertilizer commodities are primarily driven by logistics to market.
the cork
5年前
Arianne Phosphate (.4601) developing the Lac à Paul phosphate deposits located approximately 200 km north of the Saguenay/Lac St. Jean area of Quebec, Canada. These deposits will produce a high quality igneous apatite concentrate grading 39% P2O5 with little or no contaminants (Feasibility Study released in 2013). The Company has 105,803,943 million shares outstanding.
2018 saw approval for a maritime facility on the north shore of the Saguenay River which, will allow for global shipping of our product.
In April 2018, the Company announced that it received a grant of $1.5 million from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Quebec. This funding has been provided as part of the Government’s plan to help advance the Quebec phosphate (apatite) sector
In 2018, Arianne was able to conclude two offtake agreements that, not only demonstrate commercial interest in our product but, at premium prices that account for the high-quality nature of our concentrate.
Website: http://www.arianne-inc.com/en/
TSX: https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=dan
Pinksheets: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/DRRSF/overview
IHUB: https://investorshub.advfn.com/Arianne-Phosphate-Inc-DRRSF-21004/