Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc (AGO) 銘柄情報

Short bond insurers, they are just trying to survive and keep their fat paychecks coming. Broken business models after Puerto Rico. Lawyers going to continue to get rich. IMO.

Short bond insurers, make money. All bond insurers to go much lower. IMO.

I shorted some more today of the bond insurers. Dying industry going forward. They can prop them up for only so long. I’m patient. IMO.

All bond insurers to hit 52 week low, sooner not later. IMO.

Now, us shorts make money. Going much lower. IMO.

Short the bond insurers. Make money. IMO.

Bond insurers are a safe short bet. IMO.

Still short the bond insurers. Even AGO. Due your own DD. IMO.

New York Insurance Regulator Approves Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Plan to Repurchase Shares Valued at $300 Million from Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (11/28/16)

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM), an indirect subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL)(NYSE:AGO), today announced that the New York State Department of Financial Services has approved its request to implement a stock redemption plan.

Under the plan, AGM will repurchase shares from its direct parent, Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc., for approximately $300 million.

AGL will use these funds predominantly to repurchase its publicly traded common shares. Share repurchases can be made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. As of close of business on November 25, 2016, AGL had approximately $325 million remaining under its current share repurchase authorizations.

At September 30, 2016, AGM’s claims-paying resources totaled $5.7 billion (excluding its investment in its affiliate Municipal Assurance Corp.) and its leverage ratios of outstanding par and outstanding debt service to claims-paying resources were 20.8 to 1 and 32.0 to 1, respectively.

AGM is an operating subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd., a publicly traded Bermuda-based holding company whose operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161128006125/en/York-Insurance-Regulator-Approves-Assured-Guaranty-Municipal

MBIA Inc. Announces Financing Commitment for MBIA Insurance Corporation (11/28/16)

PURCHASE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) (the Company) today announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, MBIA Insurance Corp. (MBIA Corp.), has accepted a binding commitment letter dated November 25, 2016, from certain holders of 14% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Surplus Notes of MBIA Corp., and from the Company, pursuant to which the surplus noteholders or their affiliates have agreed, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions, to provide senior financing of up to $325 million and the Company has agreed to provide subordinated financing of $38 million to MBIA Corp. (the Facility). MBIA Corp. will use the proceeds of the Facility, together with approximately $60 million from its own resources, to pay an anticipated claim on its insurance policy insuring certain notes (Zohar II Notes) issued by Zohar II 2005-1, Limited and Zohar II 2005-1 Corp. (Zohar II), which mature on January 20, 2017. In addition to the $38 million of subordinated financing to be provided by the Company described above, the Company has agreed to provide up to an additional $50 million of subordinated financing to MBIA Corp. under the Facility, if needed, to provide additional liquidity to MBIA Corp. The Facility will be secured by MBIA Corp.’s rights to reimbursement and recovery with respect to the claim it paid under its policy insuring the class A-1 and A-2 notes issued by Zohar CDO 2003-1, Limited Zohar I, and its rights to reimbursement and recovery with respect to any claim paid under its policy insuring the Zohar II Notes.

Anthony McKiernan, MBIA Corp.’s President and Chief Financial Officer noted, “This financing, together with MBIA Corp.’s acquisition of the Zohar II Notes from Assured and the use of its own resources, will enable MBIA Corp. to satisfy its obligations on the Zohar II Notes on January 20, 2017. The Zohar I Notes defaulted in November 2015 and the Zohar II Notes are expected to default in January, which represents approximately $1.3 billion in defaulted Zohar notes. We remain prepared to work with Patriarch Partners and the collateral manager of the Zohar entities to institute a transparent and comprehensive plan to sell or refinance the assets owned by the Zohar entities in an orderly manner to ensure that their obligations are fully satisfied. While we believe that a consensual approach is preferable and in the interest of all parties, in the absence of the implementation of a good faith plan, we will continue to aggressively seek to enforce our rights to the full reimbursement of the insurance claims we paid.”

The Company currently owns Zohar II Notes with an outstanding principal amount of $38 million, and expects those notes to be paid in full on the maturity date, subject to consummation of the Facility. The Company concluded that, from an investment perspective, the return and risk profile of the subordinated financing it has agreed to provide were acceptable, taking into account the economic terms of the financing, the substantial level of collateral that will secure the financing and the expected payment at maturity of the Zohar II Notes it owns, and that it was in the Company’s interest to provide the subordinated financing described above in order to enable MBIA Corp. to pay its obligations under the Zohar II Notes insurance policy and to provide additional liquidity to MBIA Corp.

The closing of the Facility and of the sale of MBIA UK Insurance Limited (MBIA UK) are expected to enable MBIA Corp. to successfully address its insurance obligations relating to its insurance policy insuring the Zohar II Notes. The closing of the Facility is subject to specified conditions, including, but not limited to, MBIA Corp. acquiring the Zohar II Notes with an outstanding principal amount of approximately $347 million from Assured Guaranty Corp. in connection with the sale of MBIA UK, as previously disclosed; receipt of any required regulatory approvals from the New York State Department of Financial Services; and the execution of final documentation. The closing of the Facility is expected to occur no later than January 20, 2017. There is no assurance, however, that the conditions precedent to the closing of the Facility or to the sale of MBIA UK will be satisfied and that such transactions will be consummated.

The material terms of the Facility and the potential consequences of the failure to consummate the closing of the Facility or the sale of MBIA UK are described in the Form 8-K filed by the Company today with the Securities Exchange Commission and which is also available on the Company’s web site at www.mbia.com.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20161128005287/en/MBIA-Announces-Financing-Commitment-MBIA-Insurance-Corporation

Short AGO and all the bond insurers. IMO.

In a few AGO Puts, they are on the Hook!

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-11/detroit-s-20-percent-offer-jeopardizes-insurers-recovery-muni-credit

Detroit going BK?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/18/detroit-prepares-bankruptcy-filing-friday/2552819/

Well, bam; great news trumps being skillful with charts and stuff.

Threatening HOY; strong chart.

~ Monday! $AGO ~ Earnings posted, pending or coming soon! In Charts and Links Below!

~ $AGO ~ Earnings expected on Monday *
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One or more of many earnings sites has alerted this security has or will be posting earnings on or around the day of this message.








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*If the earnings date is in error please ignore error. I do my best.

They took a hit today cause a tow in PA. filed BK and AGO insures the muni bonds there .

AGO $11s..

I hate all holidays and weekends . I have known for a week the market was closed today but I still checked my phone till NOON before I remembered .DAMN IT MAN

Today was crazy though. set some records I hear but it was a good set of events that caused it . Somethings up big time , I have butterflys from the general feeling im getting . Not the stock per say but the whole bowl o wax seems to be acting oddly. Strange times

Just wait till all the states like wisconsin get out of hock. That and the stigma attached to ALL insurers of OBAMA care . Is there people who still look at a company as a company and not just part of a sector?

Chart is looking for a turn around here! Great upside potential here

The bond insurance industry, which in 2010 was solely represented by Assured Guaranty Ltd., guaranteed 1,701 issues totaling $26.96 billion.

That represents 6.2% of the entire market, or 9.8% of tax-exempt issuance. Compared to 2009, the market for bond insurance fell by 23.8%.

Given the recent downgrades of Assured and its former rival, MBIA Inc., Holmes said there is no sign that wrapping bonds will rebound in 2011. The business has been in free fall since the financial crisis erupted in mortgage-backed securities.

“Over the next couple of years, the bond insurance market, to me, is not going anywhere,” he said. “The five-year or 10-year horizon is a different story, but in the near term I don’t think too much is going to change.”

http://www.bondbuyer.com/issues/120_2/new_issue_volume-1021711-1.html

Bermuda-based Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) will one day go the way of the woolly mammoth, or in financial parlance, the way of Lehman Brothers. Why? Because its services are no longer required.

Assured Guaranty is one of the only municipal bond insurers standing after the destruction of its competition during the financial crisis, but that won't be enough to save it. The business of insuring municipal bonds is quickly dying, as shown by the decreasing number of new municipal bond issues that have insurance. With only a little more than $18 billion in total assets, Assured Guaranty doesn't seem like much of an insurance policy compared to projections of a combined budget deficit of $140 billion for all 50 states in 2012.

If that wasn't enough, Assured Guaranty recently had its credit rating lowered because of expected losses from toxic mortgages, which is exactly what led to the obliteration of Assured's competitors. In other words, if you're a C student, then working with an A student will average you out to a B. There isn't much incentive to work with a B student, since you wouldn't get much of a bump. Well, Assured Guaranty, formerly an A student, just got demoted to a B student. So there won't be many suitors for its services in the future.

Gerard Torres, Fool contributor

Assured Guaranty Responds to S&P’s Rating Change of Assured Guaranty Corp. & Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. from AAA Nega...
Date : 10/25/2010 @ 12:50PM
Source : Business Wire
Stock : Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Quote : 19.35 -1.93 (-9.07%) @ 1:57PM


Assured Guaranty Responds to S&P’s Rating Change of Assured Guaranty Corp. & Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. from AAA Nega...
Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Monday 25 October 2010
In response to the change by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P) of the financial strength ratings of bond insurers Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM) from AAA Negative Outlook to AA+ Stable Outlook, Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (“the Company” or “Assured Guaranty”), today made the following statement:

“We are surprised by this rating action, which comes on the heels of S&P’s affirmation of our AAA ratings in June 2010 and at a time when we are seeing positive developments in our market share and new business production in the U.S. municipal business and achieving significant success in our loss mitigation efforts. We believe our GAAP and statutory capital resources and portfolio meet AAA standards. These new ratings represent changes in S&P’s AAA criteria and market outlook rather than any material change in our credit profile or capital position. Further, in assigning these new ratings, S&P did not provide us with critical assumptions and key sensitivities used in their analysis of certain risks in our RMBS and TruPS portfolios or quantify their view of the extent of our AAA capital shortfall, all of which we believe is required under the Dodd-Frank Act.

“Through the most challenging economic environment in recent memory, we have earned operating income in every quarter since our initial public offering in 2004. Furthermore, we expect that our third quarter 2010 operating earnings per share will exceed the consensus estimate of $0.80 per share, as reported by Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters. Additionally, as of mid-October, mortgage loan originators that have breached representations and warranties have repurchased or agreed to repurchase a cumulative total of $412 million of loans, of which $111 million were in the third quarter alone. We continue to find a significant amount of defective loans and expect to continue to make substantial recoveries.

“We are committed to obtaining the highest ratings available and will continue to work with S&P to achieve that goal. Additionally, we are dedicated to putting our capital behind our credit assessments and providing cost savings to issuers and security to investors, and we believe we have the capital, people and ratings to add significant value in our markets.”

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's forward-looking statements regarding its capital resources, its market penetration and its representation and warranty putback efforts could be affected by adverse development in its insured portfolio, lower market demand for its product, further ratings downgrade, resolution of legal actions initiated by the Company in connection with potential insurance loss recoveries in a manner adverse to the Company’s position, developments in the world's financial and capital markets, changes in the world's credit markets, more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of Assured Guaranty's loss reserve, the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of our contracts written in credit default swap form, reduction in the amount of reinsurance portfolio opportunities available to the Company, decreased demand or increased competition, changes in accounting policies or practices, changes in laws or regulations, other governmental actions, difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy, contract cancellations, Assured Guaranty's dependence on customers, loss of key personnel, adverse technological developments, the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, natural or man-made catastrophes, other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time, management's response to these factors, and other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are made as of October 25, 2010. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly-traded Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on the Assured Guaranty family of companies can be found at: www.assuredguaranty.com

AGO DROPS A BIT ON RATING CHANGE S 19
12:52PM Assured Guaranty expects Q3 operating EPS to exceed the consensus estimate of $0.80; Responds to S&P's rating change (AGO) 18.88 -2.41 : Co stated "Additionally, as of mid-October, mortgage loan originators that have breached representations and warranties have repurchased or agreed to repurchase a cumulative total of $412 million of loans, of which $111 million were in the third quarter alone. We continue to find a significant amount of defective loans and expect to continue to make substantial recoveries." Co also stated regarding ratings change "We are surprised by this rating action, which comes on the heels of S&P's affirmation of our AAA ratings in June 2010... We believe our GAAP and statutory capital resources and portfolio meet AAA standards. These new ratings represent changes in S&P's AAA criteria and market outlook rather than any material change in our credit profile or capital position. Further, in assigning these new ratings, S&P did not provide us with critical assumptions and key sensitivities used in their analysis of certain risks in our RMBS and TruPS portfolios or quantify their view of the extent of our AAA capital shortfall, all of which we believe is required under the Dodd-Frank Act."

AGO, on complete lack of news, has lost significant ground over the past few trading sessions. From highs around the 18.50 mark to a current of hovering around $15 - essentially where it was prior to the upgrade, good Q numbers and 2M share buy back announcement. AGO follows the major indices down but is slow to recover without additional equity specific fundamental motivations. While volume is sustaining at the average, most of the indicators are bottoming out. Stochastic shows way oversold at a 3.93. RSI at 24.42 and declining. MACD cross to the negative, ADX negative though with a weak trend line. BBands opening up as the stock breaks lower over the past 7 sessions. While we bounced off this level in July, a stronger support is around the $13 level. Given the recent news this would be a ridiculously low entry point.

While I remain long term positive about AGO, at the current time there is no fundamental nor technical reason to believe this stock will make a recovery in the near term. If you are a long term investor this does appear to be the bottom, or close to it, short of broader market declines.

Since the board is basically just me, I am going to post what I see in the technicals. I encourage other points of view (ya, like anyone will read this...)

AGO Trading at 17.90 now. Above the 20SMA (16.81), 50SMA(15.42), 100SMA(17.66) Has a way to go to break the 200SMA(19.54). On the Daily, the Stochastic(8,10,3) is 63.69 (declining), RSI (9) is at 61.68 and rising, MACD & ADX positive, but not strongly so. Average volume is up. Overall, it is in a a positive upswing, but not yet at a strong break out point.

If the overall market holds we should be trading in mid 18.00's by close Friday.

Resistance exists at both the 19.50 area and the 20.30 area. Support (weak) around 17.57 and stronger at around 16.50.

Assured Guaranty Could Double if U.S. Cities, States Manage to Avoid Default

http://seekingalpha.com/article/219727-assured-guaranty-could-double-if-u-s-cities-states-manage-to-avoid-default?source=yahoo

The DOW is down 221 points (2.08%) right now, but AGO is up 1.28% (.23). Safe to say the upgrades, stock buyback and strong numbers are working for this company.

Hello Everyone. I have volunteered at the Moderator here. I do so only because there was no moderator (actually no one else either...) and the iBox needed some updating. I have added a few things to hopefully help new investors start their DD on the company. I have a long position in AGO and I believe in their growth - but I am not here to pump (or bash for that matter) - just here to present as much information as possible.

Best of Luck to All

Nice site
AGO
http://www.assuredguaranty.com/

AGO chart, Assured Guaranty Ltd. Announces 2.0 Million Share Repurchase Program


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Assured-Guaranty-Ltd-bw-983438011.html?x=0&.v=1

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Announces 2.0 Million Share Repurchase Program

Quarterly Dividend of US$0.045 Per Common Share Declared


Press Release Source: Assured Guaranty Ltd. On Wednesday August 4, 2010, 4:10 pm EDT
HAMILTON, Bermuda--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO - News) today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a new 2.0 million share repurchase program. This program replaces a prior program, which was completed in May 2010.

Dominic Frederico, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd., commented, “This new program will support our continuing commitment to manage our capital efficiently and to utilize capital where we see accretive opportunities. We will continue to evaluate our capital options while adhering to our priorities of ratings improvement, portfolio acquisition, reinsurance recapture, purchasing insured securities and share repurchases.”

Assured Guaranty Ltd. also declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.045 per common share. The dividend is payable on September 2, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 19, 2010.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly-traded Bermuda-based holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets. More information on the Assured Guaranty family of companies can be found at www.assuredguaranty.com.

Any reason you don't put a link with your statement to support your due diligence

Let me look for you and post.

Looked like we were going to pop to 17 today...but that didnt hold up.

All the good news and it DROPS 2.11% ? Why?

Announced a 2 Million Share Buy Back

Upgraded to a BUY from HOLD by S&P

Watching this dip.

Nice break above 15 today.

Good surge EOD.

Good day here again.

ANother nice move so far today. Play the dips.

Nice increase this morning. Add on the dips and sit back and relax.

This is one to look at for long term.

This may be the horse to ride long term.

Increase market share in triple A...

May bounce.

Big drop.

I love it when plan comes together!

check the post.....

Posted by: analogdog
In reply to: None
Date:11/5/2007 12:05:35 PM
Post #of 7

There ya go. First white candle day... bounce in motion... entry to be considered IMO.

Since then... up more than 50% and still going.