Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMA) 銘柄情報

No

Rumor down at the Titty Twister. ( Hagerty)

Good think about Bessent is that he did not work for GS or other broker/dealer/underwriter and he does not seem to have any mortgage industry connections. Seems like he will fall in line with DJT Agenda as far as the GSEs goes? Whoever is picked will probably do what DJT wants?

Why do I think Bessent would be a second coming of Mnuchin? People need to use their heads for more than a hat rack.

And the unicorn fart/pixie dust crowd pumps commons 200 times/day. Do you want to know what my agenda is? I'll tell you. I want to remind people of what I'm saying will happen so when it likely does happen I can come back here and laugh my ass off......and you'll hate me more because you'll know I was right the whole time and you should have been more objective than continuously pumping sunshine.

25% gain

Holy crap now GasBag says it will be Bessent.

If Hagerty could mean 60% gain imo

I've seen this a million times. FNMA moves on news and the short sellers come out to play. I expect the spammers to hit this board hard trying to make a buck. Nothing changes, the GSE will be release but the real payday is still going to take time.

"I think the Kthomp spammer is Maxine waters."

Nope, Maxine is so ignorant I would doubt she could string two sentences together. He/she/it may be Gasbag.

TS will be announced today after the market close.  I am very certain it will be Hagerty.

I would say that this saga would make a fascinating case study in bagholder behavior, but there are so many other historical examples that FnF commons will be just another entry in the list.

There are many examples such as Enron, etcetera, but this one will certainly be entertaining for nothing else but to see the reaction of the pumpers when release hits the fan.

Pointing it out 200 times a year???  Sure. No agenda..  agrees

Sorry to hear about your cheeky primate condition. Sounds like you need to visit the proctologist if you've got monkeys up your keester.
FNMA

I think the Kthomp spammer is Maxine waters.

Is it going to be a daily shakeout from here on?

Still trying and unable to convince folks.. Poor sales skills

I'm not trying to convince anyone to do anything. I'm just pointing out the way a release will happen.

Personally I hope all you pumpers load up on commons. Good luck with that.

I am just respecting what Mr. Market is saying

No you aren't. Your take on prevailing market prices is schizophrenic. On one hand you think that current market prices are an indication of where the shares will trade at later, but on the other hand you think that the commons have more upside than the juniors given current market prices.

If Mr. Market really thought that the commons had more upside, the commons would trade at a higher price until that supposed premium vanished. That is, the FNMAS:FNMA ratio would be lower than the 3.35:1 or so that it currently sits at.

That ratio implies that if FNMAS hits what you think is its ceiling of $25, FNMA won't be worth any more than $7.46 (= 25 / 3.35). You can't have it both ways.

This is not a bankruptcy.

You keep focusing on the wrong term.

In a standard bankruptcy, it isn't the bankruptcy itself that wipes out shareholders. It's the restructuring that happens before the exit from bankruptcy.

It's the restructuring that FnF common shareholders should be nervous about because that is when the dilution will happen.

You keep on saying this is a bankruptcy which it is not and DJT doesnt think it is either

Calabria and Mnuchin used the word restructuring many times, and DJT's own letter said his administration would have sold its common stock at a huge profit. How would Treasury have gotten that common stock? That's right, a restructuring.

Whoever becomes Treasury Secretary will have to come to terms with the implications of the 8-0 Jury Trial.

No. Treasury was not a defendant in that case. No court has found that Treasury did anything wrong at all with respect to FnF.

I believe that the common law contract violation caused by the unjust liquidation preference will create a choice of two options

"Unjust liquidation preference" is not at all what the jury found. Again, their verdict had nothing whatsoever to do with Treasury's actions. It was the companies that were found to have breached the implied covenant, and it is the companies that will pay the damages.

I don't see any realistic option of Treasury taking another 400billion in profits for themselves in a Trump administration that has a public mandate to drain the swamp.

Something you could have easily said, and been wrong about, 8 years ago.

You are also implying that any further money Treasury makes will come from the companies, which is totally false. The money they get from selling their common stock will come from outside investors, not the companies. No profits will be taken or stolen.

JPS holders think in probabilities, not possibilities.
Common holders think in possibilities, not probabilities.

Now that's a great line. Bravo.

This is not a bankruptcy. Fastest way to get a deal done is to write of the SPS and give common 20%. Since they need to raise capital let JPS vote to convert and sell new shares along with the UST Stake over several years to reach required cap levels. Not much new capital will be needed if the GSEs would have 3-5 years of retained earnings. They can afford to pay a dividend and retain earnings for the capital raise over a 3 to 5 year period. You keep on saying this is a bankruptcy which it is not and DJT doesnt think it is either. He thinks the USG stole private investor money - how much do the shareholders deserve to compensate them for the theft. Rodney thinks it is 100% but obviously DJT thinks it is less because he thing the UST will have a "huge" profit.

No, I have never said this was a bankruptcy, I said it's WORSE than a bankruptcy case. You know nothing about restructurings, that's obvious.

Write off the SPS and 'give' common 20%? A monkey will fly out of my ass before that ever happens.

The delusion is strong here.

Once again. FNMA is capped at a ratio of 1 to 3.5 FNMAS
There isn't enough clarity for JPS to be trading beyond 50% of PAR which implies there is a Three Fifty wall.

Three 50 cents will remain until after TSY/FHFA confirmation.

The ratio dipped to 3:1 before bouncing back to 3.5:1 yesterday, and 3.35:1 now. Still, it's unlikely to get too far out of whack. If it gets too low then funds can do the long junior prefs/short common pair trade and make a good profit in the end.

If Calabria was just following the Law - why isnt he touting his legal interpretation set out in his 2015 Paper vs just saying that the UST has no discretion in the compromise of debts under CFR 302.2?

Huh? What on earth are you talking about?

You seem to be conflating a lot of things together. Calabria's book only reported that in late 2020 Treasury believed a writedown of the LP would be illegal. The CFR 302.2 part came from the August 2020 CBO report, and Calabria's 2015 paper had to do with the NWS.

Let me know when you think Fannie will be entering chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring.

They entered into administrative bankruptcy (conservatorship) over 16 years ago.

It's not the entry you need to worry about, it's the restructuring at the exit (release from conservatorship). That's when all the dilution happens.

Seems pretty wild when they’ve got newly $90 billion cash and are generating $16-20 billion in cash every single year.

That only gives Treasury more incentive to convert the seniors to commons rather than writing the seniors off. There's a reason that John Paulson said they will have 90-95% of the common rather than 80%.

Shakeout in progress.  Pluck the low lying fruit.

All I want for Christmas is the twins' release!!!

You had better wish for a lot more than that if you own FnF commons.

1) Senior prefs are written off
2) Junior prefs are not offered an exchange for commons
3) FnF are allowed to be released without raising capital

All of these are required in order for the commons to be a better investment than the juniors right now. Good luck threading that needle. It would take a true Christmas miracle.

Someone please sticky Navy's post!

Why? There are too many examples of completely irrelevant citations to sticky them all.

Judge Wheeler's finding of illegal exaction was vacated on appeal (page 3):

We therefore vacate the Claims Court’s judgment that
the Government committed an illegal exaction and re-
mand with instructions to dismiss the equity-acquisition
claims that seek direct relief.

Wheeler's decision has exactly as much precedential power as the Fifth Circuit en banc panel's opinion from 2019 that the NWS violated the APA: zero.

Common shareholders are the Thanksgiving turkey who can't believe how much they are being fattened up, not knowing the grisly fate on the horizon.

THERE SHOULD BE NO NEED TO RAISE ANY NEW CAPITAL - REPEAT THAT TO YOURSELF ... NO NEW CAPITAL ...

This could be true but not at all for the reasons that you stated.

Fannie Mae has a $141B deficit to its core capital requirement, makes up about $4B of that deficit each quarter by retaining earnings, and $121B of it will disappear once the senior prefs are exchanged for commons. That means Fannie can hit its core capital requirement by the end of 2025 without raising any capital.

If Fannie has to hit its risk-based capital requirement as well in order to exit then Fannie will have to raise some capital, though not nearly as much as they would have had to in 2019-2020.

Freddie will need to do a capital raise to meet either the core or risk-based capital requirement if Freddie wants to exit before 2029.

hold the treasury accountable for what they have done

Who is it that you expect to do this? Treasury has won every court case that it has faced.

hold Wall Street accountable for the 2008 financial crisis

Oh, so this is just more useless pounding-the-pulpit moralizing to the choir. Carry on, I suppose.

My sense is that there's no public pick for FHFA under the new admin as the agency will likely cease to exist - prior transactions reverted and retained earnings restated swiftly under Executive Order.

Uh, what? Abolishing FHFA would take an act of Congress; the administration doesn't have the Constitutional authority to do that on its own. And what does it mean to restate retained earnings? That reads like a word salad.

The "IPO" Fox Business is mentioning is technically an uplist

It would be an offer for some of Treasury's newly-acquired common shares. An uplist would probably happen alongside it because new investors aren't all that likely to want to own so many shares of OTC companies.

Still a chance they'll go the capitalization route anyway

A chance? It's the only way for FnF to get out of conservatorship and stay out. The capital classifications in 12 USC 4614 are law, which again can't be abolished by administrative fiat.

Shareholders from .50 .40

Government won’t give up money, if they do how much money will they receive up front, speculating

Wonder $000

3.25

Wonder where headed

Interesting stock

What sucks about that case is that while the taking was deemed illegal there were no ramifications because AIG was about to go bankrupt.

It's worse than that. Judge Wheeler's finding of illegal exaction was overturned on appeal, which means his finding was completely vacated.

You seem to have made the mistake of assuming that the poster you responded to actually knows what he's talking about. Quoting a ruling that was vacated is quite literally useless at best.

You'll lose and I'll laugh.

You don't need to wait that long. I had a few pretty good laughs reading the post you responded to.

The best part was that it was some huge rant against the warrants! That should be the least of legacy common shareholders' concerns. The hurricane of dilution that a senior pref conversion represents has already formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is quickly ramping up to a category 5, and yet all the armchair QBs are just sitting there berating the weatherman rather than packing up and evacuating.

I would say that this saga would make a fascinating case study in bagholder behavior, but there are so many other historical examples that FnF commons will be just another entry in the list.

The time has come. The first 100 days of the new administration is the opportune time to serve.

The time to serve is today. Or better yet, 3-4 years ago. Why on earth have you waited this long?

I am working on defensive strategies. Rule 12 defenses, collateral estoppel, comity, standing, Statute of limitation and continuing claim doctrine. I am not a lawyer

This is probably the most you thing you have ever said. Comedy gold.

Also if anyone on the board would like to help figure out what the shares would be worth today if warrants and the LP of the seniors were ruled to be a statutorily prohibited fee or charge in connection to a sale of a security (illegal exaction)

People have been doing that for years. You're going to get some asinine number like $100 per share, or even more depending on the poster's inebriation level.

And thank you to all the postors here for keeping the discussion of GSEs alive through all these years.

You're welcome.

Also, if you're so negative on the commons, what FNMA do you hold and why?

I own various series of the juniors, mostly FNMAS and FMCKJ but the rest is spread around.

I am negative on the commons given the current price level of the commons and the juniors. If FNMAS traded at $25 and FNMA at $0.50 my views would change.

I see no realistic path for the commons to have more upside than the juniors from here, and much more possible downside for the commons.

Don't know how many times I have to say it. Legacy commons WILL get a rights offering.

That's just another form of dilution. It also is no guarantee at all that the final, fully diluted share price won't be under $1 (adjusted for reverse splits).

And what makes you so certain of this anyway? There are many more ways to skin this particular cat than having to do a rights offering.

TDS

wrong board and not true. He starts his elected job in January, no facts, lousy opinion.
hey ill start one as false as that, Matt gonna be FHFA director.

LOL, gaetz is finished. No longer in Govt at all...trump sycophants never learn do they?

Don’t forget the tens of billions paid to FnF for “toxic mortgages being sold to them by the too big too fail banks….. What did the FHFA do with the money?? Price rigging on bonds???

https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-banks-paid-110-billionin-mortgage-related-fines-where-did-the-money-go-1457557442
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-20934751
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/dealbook/nomura-found-liable-in-us-mortgage-suit-tied-to-financial-crisis.html
https://www.abi.org/feed-item/federal-government-sues-major-american-banks-over-mortgage-backed-securities
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=a7b9d952-6baa-46ca-9aad-f7660fa756cd
https://money.cnn.com/2013/11/19/investing/jpmorgan-mortgage-settlement/
https://www.reuters.com/article/business/big-banks-settle-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-bond-rigging-litigation-in-us-idUSKBN1YL1RJ/#:~:text=NEW%20YORK%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Thirteen,Freddie%20Mac%20for%20a%20decade.

tanking now

Most important tidbit I've read lately:

"The combined agencies have about half the $300 billion in capital that the Biden administration said they need to go public, though a Trump appointee could waive that."

Or, the Trump appointee could get back from Treasury the funds stolen from the GSEs by the Obama administration of thieves and we have instant capital requirements!

mnuchin the scumbag would not negotiate in good faith with Calabria. He can't so shit without treasury.

Analyst Coil's Recommendation for FNMA and FMCC

Strong Buy