Quantumscape Corp (QS) オプション

I am originally from Detroit and have maintained contacts in the auto industry. No doubt solid state is going to be big. I believe it's Mercedes that already has product with Solid State battery. Others are following. VW estimate 15-17% of QS is understated. QS could easily be a ten bagger by end of year, imho. HAWK

Another interesting valuation post from Reddit.

Quantumscape valuation exercise (BEAR CASE)
Inspired by beerion's work - here goes my version (which supports his).  Beerion's  bear case breakdown is exceptionally well-reasoned. I completely agree that the downside scenario is starting to look implausible given QuantumScape’s progress, and the point about the stock’s asymmetry resonates strongly with my own analysis. I was working on my own back-of-the-envelope valuation the past few days and here are my separate thoughts, which I think just corroborate beerion's case:
 
The bear case of $5.76B-$7.26B ($10.95-$13.81/share)—derived from $3.35B in IP costs plus time-value adjustments—sets a compelling floor. I’d argue it’s conservative, and my analysis, rooted in the non-China TAM and QS’s licensing model, suggests a higher baseline. The current $2.6B market cap (sub-$5/share, \~$1.6B operating value after $1B cash) implies a near-collapse probability that doesn’t hold up. Using a 25% discount rate—standard for pre-revenue VC risk—here’s my take, factoring in a 2027-2035 ramp-up:
 
* **Non-China TAM by 2035**: Per BloombergNEF, McKinsey, and IEA, the total battery TAM is 7 TWh ($550B), split evenly between China and non-China at $275B each. QS’s non-China focus targets $275B, and a 5% capture equates to $2.5B-$3.0B annual revenue (350 GWh at \~$10/kWh)—achievable with PowerCo’s 80 GWh deal and two OEMs adding \~100 GWh each (280 GWh "committed" so far).
* **Revenue and Earnings Ramp-Up**: Revenue scales from $0.5B in 2027 (post-commercialization) to $3.5B by 2035, with $400M annual spend (all OpEx, $0 CapEx conservatively). Earnings ramp from $0.1B to $3B:
   * 2027: $0.5B revenue - $0.4B = $0.1B earnings
   * 2035: $3.5B - $0.4B = $3B earnings
   * Linear growth: \~$0.375B revenue/year. The $1B cash (per 10-K, $910.8M) is deployed by 2027, extending the runway to 2028 and supporting this ramp.
* **Present Value at 25% Discount Rate**:
   * *Discounting Terminal Valuation*: At 2035, $3B earnings × 10x = $40B terminal value. Discounted back 10 years at 25%: $40B / (1.25)\^10 ˜ $4.3B. Adding $1B cash (deployed), \~$5.2B today.
   * *Discounting Cash Flows*: Discount 2027-2035 earnings at 25%, plus perpetuity:
      * 2027: $0.1B / (1.25)\^2 ˜ $0.06B
      * 2031: $1.5625B / (1.25)\^6 ˜ $0.41B
      * 2035: $3B / (1.25)\^10 ˜ $0.32B
      * Total (2027-2035): \~$2.92B.
      * Perpetuity (2035 onward): $3B / 0.25 = $12B, discounted to today: $12B / (1.25)\^10 ˜ $1.29B.
      * Total PV: $2.92B + $1.29B ˜ $4.21B + $1B cash = $5.21B.
   * *VC Valuation*: Discount $40B at 25% to $4.3B, add $1B cash, and apply a 25%-50% premium ($1.1B-$2.1B) for IP ($3.35B R&D) and licensing traction (280 GWh = $2.8B revenue). Total: $6.4B-$7.4B.
   * *Range*: $5.2B-$7.4B today at 25%.* Note: An "IP premium valuation DCF" refers to using the Discounted Cash Flow method to value intellectual property (IP) by incorporating a premium into the projected cash flows, reflecting the added value that the IP provides beyond a standard asset due to its unique characteristics like market dominance, technological advantage, or brand recognition.
* **Market-Implied Discount**: The $2.6B cap is a 50%-65% discount to $5.2B-$7.4B, implying a \~50% failure rate. Yet PowerCo’s $130M royalty, two OEM deals, and a 2028 cash runway (per 10-K) make this laughable. Post-revenue confirmation (2026), a 25% rate could justify $20B-$35B, closer to the $25B-$30B TAM potential.
* **Lowering Discount Rates**: If licensing cash flows are confirmed for 2026-2027 and pre-revenue risks (e.g., commercialization, scale-up) start to extinguish, the 25% rate could drop to 15%-20%, lifting fair value to $20B-$35B or higher—reflecting QS’s de-risked, capital-light model.
The $3/share floor (with $2/share cash) discussed by beerion limits downside to \~30%, while my $5.2B-$7.4B at 25% offers 2-3x upside—conservative next to a $20B-$35B re-rating once licensing revenue kicks in (or is confirmed). QS’s shift to a capital-light model and 280 GWh committed capacity shred any bear case. The market’s \~50% implied rate is nuts—revenue confirmation could trigger a massive re-rating. Beerion's asymmetry nails it—looking forward to the base and bull cases.
  Just need to stay strong, be cold blooded and hold your position.
 

Very good, detailed timeline from poster on Reddit

The Hidden Story of QuantumScape and Volkswagen: A Speculative Analysis from 2022 to 2025 and Beyond

Understanding QuantumScape’s (QS) true progress requires a different way of thinking than just taking their public statements at face value. The company, like any highly scrutinized tech firm, carefully controls its communication. They follow a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that major breakthroughs are often hinted at in earnings calls but only officially announced 1-2 quarters later.

This means that by studying past communication patterns, we can predict what has already happened behind closed doors but has not yet been disclosed. When we overlay this method with Volkswagen’s own shifting EV strategy, we begin to see a clearer picture of what’s really going on.

**Introduction: How to Read Between the Lines**

QuantumScape’s (QS) journey is not just a story of technological breakthroughs—it is a story of corporate strategy, controlled communication, and hidden clues within public disclosures.

Unlike many companies that openly promote progress, QS follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, where key milestones—while hinted at in earnings calls—are only officially announced one or two quarters later.

This means that to truly understand QS’s trajectory, we must track how discussions in earnings calls translate into later confirmations in shareholder letters. When we overlay this with Volkswagen’s shifting EV strategy, a clearer picture emerges of where QS stands today and where it is likely headed.

**2022: The Over-Promise, the Lawsuits, and the Start of Controlled Messaging**

QuantumScape entered 2022 with immense investor expectations, driven by the promise that its solid-state battery technology could revolutionize the EV industry. However, the gap between ambition and execution led to investor lawsuits, leadership changes, and a shift in communication strategy.

**1. The Lawsuits and How They Changed QS’s Messaging**

QuantumScape was sued by investors in early 2022 for allegedly misrepresenting how close it was to commercialization. This led to a clear shift in how the company communicated progress:

* **Before 2022**, QS proactively forecasted its future goals.

* **After 2022**, QS only confirmed milestones after they were fully validated, meaning that if something was mentioned in an earnings call, it had likely already been achieved months before.

**2. Leadership Change: Why Did Jagdeep Singh Step Down?**

Throughout 2022, Jagdeep Singh was the face of QuantumScape, but his departure in early 2023 was a pivotal moment.

* Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023): Jagdeep was prominently featured, but discussions became more focused on execution rather than vision.

* Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024): By mid-2023, Jagdeep had stepped down, and Dr. Siva Sivaram had taken over as CEO—a clear move toward an execution-oriented leadership team.

* Why It Matters: Jagdeep was the visionary who got QS to this point, but Siva was brought in to industrialize the technology—a sign that QS was shifting toward practical commercialization.

**3. Volkswagen’s Strategic Pivot: PowerCo’s Creation**

At the same time, Volkswagen launched PowerCo, its in-house battery subsidiary, marking a shift from investing in battery startups to directly managing battery production.

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2022):** PowerCo was briefly mentioned as an R&D partner.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024):** PowerCo evolved into a full-fledged industrialization partner, with QS integrating PowerCo engineers into its production process.

This meant that QuantumScape was no longer just a research project for Volkswagen—it was now a key part of their future EV roadmap.

**2023: The Silent Acceleration — Progress That Was Hidden in Plain Sight**

By mid-2023, QuantumScape had entered what we now recognize as the silent acceleration phase. While the company publicly downplayed progress, it was quietly reaching major milestones behind the scenes.

**1. QS-0: The First Sign of Real Production**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023):** QS-0 was first hinted at as a pilot production line.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024):** QS-0 was later confirmed as QuantumScape’s first real step into industrial-scale production.

Implication: If QS-0 was mentioned in transcripts before being confirmed in letters, then other major manufacturing developments (like Cobra) are likely already further along than QS admits.

**2. PowerCo’s Growing Involvement**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2023):** PowerCo was described as a collaborator, but no clear role was defined.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2024):** By early 2024, PowerCo had evolved into a strategic industrialization partner, with engineers embedded inside QS’s facility.

**Implication:** Volkswagen wasn’t just testing QS’s technology anymore—it was preparing for real production.

**2024: PowerCo’s Deal and Volkswagen’s EV Retreat—But Not from Solid-State**

By mid-2024, Volkswagen’s PowerCo officially signed a $130 million licensing deal with QuantumScape to industrialize QS’s battery technology.

**1. The PowerCo Deal Was Signed Earlier Than Announced**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024):** PowerCo was described as "expanding its collaboration" with QS.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024):** By mid-2024, the PowerCo deal was officially announced—meaning it was likely finalized months earlier.

**2. Cobra Production Equipment: Another Case of Delayed Confirmation**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q2-Q3 2024):** Cobra was hinted at as a manufacturing enabler, but QS avoided specifics.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2024):** Cobra was confirmed to be operational, proving that its impact was already being felt before QS disclosed it.

**Implication:** If Cobra was downplayed before being confirmed, then the B1 sample program is likely already further along than QS admits.

**2025: What Has Already Happened But Hasn’t Been Announced Yet**

Based on QS’s historical pattern of delayed confirmations, we can logically infer what has likely already happened behind the scenes but has yet to be publicly disclosed.

**1. Cobra Will Be Fully Ready for Scaled Production by Late 2025**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS confirmed Cobra was operational but avoided discussing its throughput capacity.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3-Q4 2025):** Cobra will likely be confirmed as fully scaled by late 2025.

* **Why This Matters:** Cobra is the final missing piece for high-throughput separator production, a prerequisite for mass production in 2026.

**2. B1 Samples Are Already Functional**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS stated that B1 samples were a goal for 2025 but did not confirm performance.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q2-Q3 2025):** Given past patterns, B1 samples are likely already functional, and QS is waiting for external validation before announcing success.

**3. Mass Production Will Start in 2026, Not 2028**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS maintains a **2027-2028 mass production timeline**.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2025):** If PowerCo is already preparing production infrastructure, mass production is likely to start in 2026, not 2028.

**Final Takeaways: 2025 Will Be the Year of Confirmations**

QuantumScape is further along than it appears, and 2025 will be the year that confirms it.

* B1 samples are already functional—confirmation expected mid-2025.

* Cobra will be fully scaled by late 2025, enabling mass production.

* At least one major OEM deal is finalized—announcement likely by mid-2025.

* Mass production will start in 2026, not 2028—expect an acceleration announcement in late 2025.

**The key to understanding QS is seeing what was discussed in transcripts first and later confirmed in letters. Now let's move to Cobra and PowerCo:**

**Speculating on PowerCo’s Cobra Orders and Installations: The Missing Piece**

Up to this point, we have established that QuantumScape follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that key developments are first hinted at in earnings calls, then officially confirmed in shareholder letters a quarter or two later. This pattern applies to everything from leadership changes (Jagdeep to Siva), the QS-0 pilot line, AI-driven Raptor defect detection, and the PowerCo licensing deal.

However, one major missing piece is whether PowerCo has already ordered and begun installing Cobra equipment for separator production—a critical step in bringing QuantumScape’s solid-state battery technology to mass production.

**The Case for PowerCo Already Ordering and Installing Cobra**

**1. QuantumScape Has Already Delivered and Installed Cobra at Its Own Facility**

* **Q2-Q3 2024 Earnings Calls:** Cobra was mentioned vaguely as a next-generation separator processing tool but without clear installation details.

* **Q4 2024 Shareholder Letter:** Cobra was officially confirmed to be operational at QuantumScape’s facility.

**Pattern Match:** Given that Cobra was declared operational by Q4 2024, it was likely functional earlier in 2024, even before the PowerCo licensing deal was announced.

If Cobra was already working at QuantumScape, PowerCo would have been aware of its capabilities before signing the licensing deal in July 2024.

**2. PowerCo’s Licensing Deal Implies a Pre-Existing Plan for Cobra Integration**

In July 2024, PowerCo finalized a licensing deal with QuantumScape to manufacture up to 40 GWh annually, with an option to expand to 80 GWh.

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024):** PowerCo’s involvement was described as “expanding collaboration” with QS.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024):** The licensing deal was officially announced, confirming PowerCo’s commitment to industrialization.

**Pattern Match:** Since PowerCo would need to scale separator production to meet its manufacturing targets, it would not have signed the deal without knowing that Cobra was ready for deployment.

**3. Volkswagen’s “Walk Back” on Broader Battery Investments, Except QS**

In 2024, Volkswagen scaled back some of its EV battery investments, postponing PowerCo’s IPO and reducing commitments to conventional lithium-ion gigafactories.

However, Volkswagen continued to move forward with QuantumScape, integrating PowerCo engineers directly into QS’s facility.

**Pattern Match:** If PowerCo was slowing down other battery investments but staying aggressive with QuantumScape, this suggests that they already had a clear timeline for bringing Cobra online.

PowerCo likely did not commit to licensing QS’s technology unless it had already planned its own Cobra installations.

**4. Cobra’s Scaling Timeline and PowerCo’s Likely Orders**

If we apply the historical delay between QS’s internal deployments and public confirmations, we can reverse-engineer when PowerCo likely placed its orders:

* **Q1-Q2 2024:** QuantumScape was already testing and refining Cobra internally (but had not confirmed it publicly).

* **Q2-Q3 2024:** PowerCo negotiated and signed the licensing deal, knowing that Cobra would be crucial for scaling separator production.

* **Q4 2024:** QuantumScape confirmed Cobra’s operational status, meaning it had likely been functional for months.

* **Q1-Q2 2025 (Speculative):** PowerCo has already placed orders for Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it at its facilities.

**5. Why Cobra’s Deployment at PowerCo Hasn’t Been Publicly Confirmed Yet**

* QuantumScape does not confirm developments until they are fully locked in.

* PowerCo operates within Volkswagen, which does not typically reveal procurement details in real-time.

* If PowerCo is already installing Cobra, they would wait until the system is fully functional before announcing it.

**Speculative Conclusion: PowerCo’s Cobra Installations Are Likely Underway**

Given QS’s pattern of delayed confirmations, the PowerCo licensing agreement, and Volkswagen’s continued commitment to solid-state despite broader EV slowdowns, the most logical conclusion is that PowerCo has already ordered Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it.

**What This Means for the 2025 Timeline**

* Q2-Q3 2025: PowerCo’s Cobra installations should be completed, allowing for scaled separator production.

* Q4 2025: PowerCo publicly confirms Cobra deployment, coinciding with a likely update on B1 sample progress and mass production timelines.

* 2026: First large-scale solid-state production begins at PowerCo’s facilities.

**Final Thought: We Are Closer to Mass Production Than People Think**

If PowerCo has already ordered and installed Cobra, then QuantumScape’s technology is much closer to real-world deployment than publicly disclosed.

The key question now is: **Will QuantumScape accelerate its 2027-2028 production timeline to 2026?** If the speculation holds true, the answer is likely **yes**.

 

QS>>>Fyi on solid state batteries. QS has a chance to be the pick for VW EVs. Just a FYI.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/anode-free-solid-state-batteries-could-provide-more-than-500-miles-of-ev-range-on-a-charge/ar-AA1AhRdK?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=821486d608b84aaca1e9c8b111075819&ei=65

On Bloomberg minutes ago. Guest says "Trump folding on tariffs". Will be in his address tonight. Just a FYI. HAWK

The sad part is that we've seen how this plays out:
When the US imposed the "Smoot-Harley Tariff" in the 1930s, The tariff was intended to protect American businesses and farmers. Other countries responded to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff by raising their own tariffs on American goods.

The tariff collapsed world trade by two-thirds.

And we had the Great Depression.

I agree, it's time to watch and there will be a time to buy/average down - based on your average.

Everything is heading south. I'll be buying soon. New administration is causing uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. HAWK

QS new 52/week low

QS battery being tested by sever big EV makers. VW owns over 15% of QS. TWT if QS is chosen. TWT. HAWK

I know I'm losing my faith in this. I have many shares in pinky land also, and most have this much volume. I know pinky land isn't the same game, but I have too much money here, for it to be acting like pinky land.

HUGE increase in volume. It is said volume precedes price. TWT. HAWK

10X ADV today??

AmericanBulls has a BUY on QS. Just a FYI. HAWK

QS Info from Motley Fool analysis. VW owns somewhere around 15% of QS. I think they could be a buyout candidate. Just a FYI. Just received from a friend. HAWK

"Management says that it expects to begin baseline production for its Cobra solid-state battery separator equipment and build out its manufacturing capacity this year. The company also says that it anticipates shipping samples of its QSE-5 B1 battery this year for a potential launch through an automaker in 2026.

Given their existing relationship, it's possible that this customer could be Volkswagen. If new information emerges that suggests QuantumScape is on track to see its batteries begin commercial sales next year, the company's share price could rise far above its current range."

EV's will be adopted when solid state batteries allow for much shorter charge times and much longer cycle miles.  Even if the Biden administration remained in office and continued building out infrastructure -- that's putting the cart before the horse.  Once the technology provides reason for significant demand increase -- whoever is in charge will be forced to continue the build out of infrastructure.  Need the battery technology improved significantly.  QS is working on that.

I'm just wondering, with the new wave at the White House, will EV's be the future?

3 No-Brainer EV Stocks to Buy Right Now for Less Than $1,000
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/30428106/3-no-brainer-ev-stocks-to-buy-right-now-for-less-than-1000 $QS $NIO

Reading up on solid state battery range estimates. From a low of 600 miles to as high as 900 miles range on a single charge. This is "huge". Not sure where QS stands with this, but with VW said to have just over a 15% interest in the company I think they fall into the estimated range. More later. HAWK

QS rally just getting going. Much higher PPS in the near future. IMHO. HAWK

I hope so, but I'll take a wait and see approach.

KYOTO, Japan, November 21, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--QuantumScape Corporation(NYSE: QS), a leader in next-generation solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, yesterday gathered distinguished representatives, including battery equipment and materials suppliers, government leaders and automotive customers to discuss and strengthen the solid-state battery ecosystem


Who are those " Automotive Customers " in Japan?

Hyundai

https://electrek.co/2024/12/26/hyundais-all-solid-state-ev-batteries-on-verge-of-milestone/

Mass production by 2030. Another fluff article.

QS ALL OUT...LOCK IT IN KIDS...LOTS MORE PLAYS COMING

QS GAPPING HARD

Form 4 - He seems to be exercising company stock options and then selling them at the prices between $4.8 and 5.3

The Form 144 indicates He plans to sell 180,000 sh for $940k

He also disclosed his sale for close to 25k sh earlier this month. 

I hope he's putting a good chunk of that money aside for the Tax Man....

QS HERE WE GO BREAKING 6 BUCKS

Form 4 and Form 144 were filled these last days by the company's Chief Development Officer.

I'm not an expert with those filings and what they mean in this case so maybe someone else can explain what the guy is appears to be doing. 

QS READY TO BREAK 6.00

not at all but happy to ride on the name!

hope to hear news at CES should be getting some idea of first deliveries by VW in 2025, and other manufacturers exploring switching to QS from lithium batteries

QS QUANTUM PLAY

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/quantumscape-now-has-six-automakers-in-its-sampling-agreements-list-194631.html
Jul2022 - QuantumScape Now Has Six Automakers in Its Sampling Agreements List. “from global top-10 manufacturers by revenue to premium performance and luxury automakers, encompassing both pure EV and conventional OEMs.”

——-
This was 2.5years ago

The article does a lot of guessing as to whom they all are but at the end of the day when you say you have 6 and dont list them, mistrust can fester in the investors. Hopefully they keep things honest.

Toyota is rumored to be very good at marketing their plans and products in the industry. Some longer time followers are annoyed with the continual barrage of fluff pieces that generally contain no usable information.

However, there were a couple of news pieces these last few days which also seem to be fluff pieces, giving no information/details about their product or general timelines.

So MSN did publish a video yesterday for those who are unfamiliar with todays industry battery development. This vid did give time to QS at about six minute mark.

So while Zulual’s claim of what is responsible for QS’s short-lived stock movement, I can only say the QS stock tracked the rest of the marketplace in both of the rise and falls of movements. That is, no impact seemed to come from this information posting.

Note that the title of the video is not very well represented with respect to the content they released. So Yea, it was kind of slimy to title the video the way they did:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/toyota-s-revolutionary-solid-state-battery-coming-soon/vi-AA1w8kC6

What announcement? Link? 

QuantumScape (QS) is soaring today after an announcement from Toyota (TM).The Japanese auto giant plans on focusing on solid-state battery (SSB) production.This announcement is an excellent endorsement of QuantumScape’s technology.

The below notes are from silicon investor and post date, and even update, the 2017 information you posted. So as of 2021 Toyota looks to be going at it on their own with in-house development.
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33508493

Other notes from the article:

1) VW initially invested 100 million in QS bringing their total investment to $300M.
2) Bill Gates also invested in QS.
3) BMW & Ford announced they were investing 130 million in Solid Power
4) Toyota going at it on their own.

Notes not belonging to above article:
a) PowerCo subsidiary of VW motor group working with QS
b) QS Cash runway extends into 2028
c) QS Looking at lower volume production 2025

sorry meant to add the link of the search:

https://www.google.com/search?q=does+Toyota+own+any+of+Quantuscapes+patents&oq=does+Toyota+own+any+of+Quantuscapes+patents&aqs=chrome..69i57.22554j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Toyota does not own any of QS patents: see search results below

"Toyota is one of the top companies that cite QuantumScape's patents, along with Samsung and Ford. This indicates that Toyota is working on similar technologies and is following QuantumScape's technology.

No, Toyota does not own any of QuantumScape's patents, but Toyota is one of the top citing companies of QuantumScape's patents:"

Please post anything you find that contradicts these statements, along with a link to them! Thanks

QuantumScape Releases Next-Generation Solid-State Battery Separator Equipment, Cobra
December 5, 2024

Achieving this final key goal of 2024 enables the company’s higher-volume sample production in 2025SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- QuantumScape Corporation (NYSE: QS), a leader in solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, today announced that next-generation heat treatment equipment for its separator production process, Cobra, has been developed, delivered, installed and released for initial separator processing. Achieving this milestone on schedule puts the company on track to deliver higher-volume samples of its first planned commercial product, QSE-5, in 2025, and is a major step toward the commercialization of solid-state batteries for electric vehicles.Cobra represents a significant innovation in ceramic solid-state separator production, benefiting both scalability and cost efficiency. This milestone is the culmination of years of advanced R&D on QuantumScape’s fast separator production process – the core innovation that will allow its battery technology to be manufactured at gigawatt-hour scale. The company is targeting Cobra integration into its cell production baseline in 2025.“Cobra is a true breakthrough in ceramics manufacturing, and it will pave the way for the scale up of our battery technology,” said Tim Holme, co-founder and CTO of QuantumScape. “I’m delighted with how the team has overcome challenges and kept the process roll-out on track this year.”“We set challenging and ambitious goals at the beginning of the year, and it required a focused team effort to achieve all of them,” said Dr. Siva Sivaram, CEO and president of QuantumScape. “There is a lot of work ahead of us, and with our track record of consistent execution and delivery on our milestones, I fully expect the team to continue building momentum toward gigawatt-hour scale up of our technology.”The company established four annual goals at the beginning of 2024, all focused on integrating the improvements demonstrated at the component level in 2023 into the QSE-5. With the achievement of this milestone, the company has now fulfilled all four of its key annual objectives for 2024.Prepare for Cobra production in 2025 . With today’s announcement, QuantumScape has taken delivery, installed and released for initial separator processing key equipment for its advanced separator manufacturing process, Cobra.Begin low-volume QSE-5 prototype production . In October, QuantumScape announced it had started producing and shipping the first low-volume B samples battery cells for automotive customer testing. The QSE-5 B sample features energy density of 844 Wh/L and is able to fast charge from 10% to 80% in 12.2 minutes.Ramp Raptor process . Raptor, the first stage of QuantumScape’s fast separator production process, entered the company’s baseline process in the third quarter of 2024. These films are used in the low-volume QSE-5 B samples.Ship Alpha-2 samples . Earlier in the year, the company announced it started shipping Alpha-2 samples to customers. These cells were precursors to the B samples.About QuantumScape CorporationQuantumScape is on a mission to revolutionize energy storage to enable a sustainable future. The company’s next-generation solid-state lithium-metal battery technology is designed to enable greater energy density, faster charging and enhanced safety to support the transition away from legacy energy sources toward a lower carbon future. For more information, visit www.quantumscape.com.Forward-Looking StatementsCertain information in this press release may be considered “forward-looking statements,” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including, without limitation, statements regarding QuantumScape’s plans and objectives for future operations and growth, including the production and timing of higher-volume battery samples, the performance and integration of the new production equipment, the performance and scale up of its technology and its applications, and the potential impacts of QuantumScape’s technology, among others. These forward-looking statements are based on QuantumScape management’s current expectations, assumptions, hopes, beliefs, intentions and strategies regarding future events and are based on currently available information as to the outcome and timing of future events. Because forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, some of which cannot be predicted or quantified, you should not rely upon forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. The events and circumstances reflected in the forward-looking statements may not be achieved or occur and actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including due to the building out of high volume processes and otherwise to achieve scale, the achievement of the quality, consistency, reliability, safety, cost and throughput required for commercial production and sale, changes in economic and financial conditions, and other factors, including those discussed in the section titled “Risk Factors” in QuantumScape’s Annual Report and Quarterly Reports and other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. Except as otherwise required by applicable law, the company disclaims any duty to update any forward-looking statements.https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/news-details/2024/QuantumScape-Releases-Next-Generation-Solid-State-Battery-Separator-Equipment-Cobra/default.aspx

i remember Toyota invested about 20M to QS in 2017, if I remembered correctly.
So Toyota should have reviewed all QS's technical designs and all its patents QS got. 
Can Toyota develop its own SSB once reviewed QS technology, or they just cooperate each other, let's wait and see.

The newer technology looks promising.

QuantumScape’s QSE-5 solid-state battery has a weight energy density of approximately 301 Wh/kg, and a volumetric energy density of 844 Wh/L.

Factorials’ competitive battery named Solstice is said to have a weight density of 450 Wh/kg however they provide no other details, including milestones to production other than the fact they have been feeding Mercedes Benz sample batteries for testing. (Same way as QS does for Volkswagen)

Chinese CATL/Huawei claim a SS battery small scale production timeline “by 2027” for reported energy density of 500 Wh/kg.


Note: Todays Li formulation batteries are on the order of 350 Wh/kg

So it seems QS is behind in the density development curve of their competitors. At the same time this density appears to be slightly less than a standard Li battery.

QS is at least is activity marketing themselves as being closest to actual EV deployment.

Caveat- the accuracy of this information is dependent on both the article link that was just posted in combination with CGPT quieres to harvest the other competitors details. Ive caught CGPT of giving inaccurate information in the past so if you know for sure any of these details are incorrect please feel free to post corrections and provide a link if possible.

"Quantumscape scaled the production of its sample cells" 

Dang article can't even get it right, they did indeed scale the production... But they SHIPPED B-Samples to their OEM partners... 

B-Samples are big and nobody seems to care. 

QS mentioned in this article. At the end. Getting close to a big move UP iimho.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/600-mile-range-mercedes-backed-firm-s-solid-state-ev-battery-hits-40ah-energy-density/ar-AA1vOoGd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=072dc30b641f4608a7c0c140baf2f8ae&ei=60

QSI BLOWING UP

Production in 2025... The QSE-5 B sample features energy density of 844 Wh/L and is able to fast charge from 10% to 80% in 12.2 minutes.
$6.50- $7.88 a profit zone above for now $5.35 to $6.25 

Thanks for the update. Last I saw it was 17%. HAWK

Ownership: the latest I could find was from a site that did not state their source:

Quantumscape (NYSE: QS) is owned by 25.43% institutional shareholders, 41.06% Quantumscape insiders, and 33.51% retail investors. Volkswagen Group Of America Investments LLC is the largest individual Quantumscape shareholder, owning 68.24M shares representing 13.32% of the company.

The site was WallStreetZen - they don't say where they got their information. Other sites will quote the last Quarterly and say VW owns 17%.

A couple of notes regarding the future:

1) All 3 majors in the US, (Stellantis - GM/GMC - Ford/Lincoln) - have already spent billions in development and retooling of factories, that are only recoverable if they sell EVs or EV/Gas Hybrids. Q3 of 2024 saw EV ownership at 8.9% of the market. This percentage has been on a steady upward trend.

2) Mercedes, BMW, Audi (VW group) and Stellantis (owners of Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram) have all made commitments and allocated the funding for a transition. At this point it would appear we'll see a lot of hybrids first followed by all-electric cars.

3) Toyota has announced that every model they make will have a hybrid option (small gas engine with a battery. No later than 2025.

4) Ram just recently announced they will have their first hybrid truck (1500 REV) which will have a 6 cylinder gas engine acting as a generator to keep the battery charged. They said the range will be at least 500 miles.

The point is that all of these companies are already in the process of retooling manufacturing lines and will probably NOT throw out that investment so that they can retool for gas engines. Add to that, expect Elon to bend Trumps ear on this issue.

The two big reasons most often expressed, as to why Americans don't want to buy an EV are the following: 1) lack of charging stations (think gas stations for EVs) and 2) Range anxiety.

Several recent events might change that. A) Private companies have announced, this year, several hundreds of millions in private investments to build out the infrastructure (just in the US), B) the current administration announced (last January) $623mil in grants to build out the US charging charging infrastructure. C) Ford announced this year their BlueOval SK (Korean company) Battery Park in Kentucky. At 3.9 million sq/ft it will be the largest battery facility in the world. Construction has already begun.

I assume everyone already knows the benefits of Solid State batteries, one of which will address the range issue. I expect to see them in the 2027 model year. I know everyone, including QS seems to think it will be earlier but I prefer to lower my expectations and then hope I am wrong.

I think the "new" administration will be big on talk (like when they promised to replace the existing healthcare system with a new improved one) Trump then had to admit that "no one knew how difficult it would be to replace the current system." And subsequently did nothing.

He might be able to slow it down but he has two people on his team, Elon and RFK Jf who believe in Global Warming. He'll find a way to say he forced everyone to build Hybrids and then move onto some other social issue. IMO

Drill baby drill and go backwards or will Musk push for more on EVs? VW owns 17% of QS and they are constructing a factory to produce batteries. "IF" QS is their choice pps will soar. TWT. HAWK

Wonder how this will go with the new regime coming in?