Deere and Co (DE) オプション

it's called a blow off top

DE, new 52/week high

Bad guidance,  tariffs,  farmers winng lawsuits against deere and company.    You have been warned.   Deere subscriptions are getting taken over by a small company....It absolutely cracks me up.   Big loses incoming. 

Thanks for quoting me :- )

John Deere $502 ATH. "This is just an amazing stock." True.

DE, new 52=week high

DE rebounds to_within_a_hair of all-time high, despite the tepid outlook on yesterday’s FY1Q15 CC (#msg-175802670). This is just an amazing stock.

DE FY1Q25 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-q1-2025-earnings-call-181515732.html

DE reports FY1Q25* results—maintains FY2025 EPS guidance with a proviso:

https://investor.deere.com/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/DE-1Q25-News-Release.pdf

Background: FY2023 was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024 was a down year. DE expects FY2025 to be another down year, closer to mid-cycle than to the peak for the ag business.

Details: FY2025 net income is expected to be $5.0-5.5B, down from $7.1B in FY2024 and $10.2B in FY2023. However, DE’s FY2025 guidance does not take into account any impact from tariffs.

Based on an estimated 270M diluted shares, the FY2025 net-income guidance equates to FY2025 GAAP EPS of $18.52-20.37. At the current share price (~$460 as I’m typing), the guidance represents a forward P/E of 22-25x.

Based on all of the above, the share price is down about 3% today. The stock was recently trading at an all-time high, but uncertainty about macroeconomic trends tariffs appear to be driving today’s selloff. DE is major buyer of steel, and the new 25% tariff on imported steel will raise the price of both imported and domestic steel in the US market. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs by other countries against US agricultural exports could put a dent in US farmers’ ability to pay for new and upgraded machinery.


FY1Q25 CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/DE-1Q25-Earnings-Call-Presentation_Final.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on the last Sunday in October. FY1Q25 ran from 10/28/24 to 1/28/25, essentially the Nov/Dec/Jan period.

~bought 2/14 $540 calls @.15c

No...reality will set in...Agriculture has been in a recession for over 2 years now.   Look at history.   Everytime Ag goes in recession the rest of the country is 2 years behind.   And Ag isn't coming out of recession this year.   Deere has poked the farmer to much and you can ask any farmer.  I may be bias....but my bias is based on reality.   Not what some bank tells me what they think.

You might be just a little biased, LOL.

you're on.....quality control has gone to hell.   What used to be good engines are now shit. Combines dont last 2 years without a major performance issue.    Those on the ground know.   Even the floor men know.   Cheap is all they know.   

DE! New all time high

BRK buying? ~$474 Makes a lotta sense. BRK owned DE shares a few years ago.

DE hits all-time high.

it's toast and we can't stop it....50% haircut is happening....the dirty accounting needs to be backed by sales.    Sales tell the tale.

I would take the other side of that bet, LOL.

lol...down she goes....200 incoming 

DE, not going to zero

Deere and Co. Q. Divs back to 1972 (.02 cents)
Scroll Down
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Sep 30, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Jun 28, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Jun 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Mar 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Dec 30, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Jun 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Mar 28, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Dec 28, 2018 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Jun 28, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Mar 28, 2018 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Sep 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2014 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Sep 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Jun 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Mar 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Sep 26, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Jun 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Mar 28, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Dec 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Sep 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Jun 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Mar 29, 2011 0.35 Dividend
Dec 29, 2010 0.35 Dividend
Sep 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Jun 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Mar 29, 2010 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Sep 28, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Sep 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2008 0.25 Dividend
Dec 27, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Sep 26, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Jun 27, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Mar 28, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Dec 27, 2006 0.22 Dividend
Sep 27, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Jun 28, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Mar 29, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Dec 28, 2005 0.20 Dividend
Sep 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Jun 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Mar 29, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Dec 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Sep 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Jun 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Mar 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Dec 29, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Mar 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Jun 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Mar 28, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Sep 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1997 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 1997 0.10 Dividend
Jun 26, 1997 0.10 Dividend
Mar 26, 1997 0.10 Dividend
Dec 27, 1996 0.10 Dividend
Sep 26, 1996 0.10 Dividend
Jun 26, 1996 0.10 Dividend
Mar 27, 1996 0.10 Dividend
Dec 27, 1995 0.10 Dividend
Sep 27, 1995 0.10 Dividend
Jun 28, 1995 0.09 Dividend
Mar 27, 1995 0.09 Dividend
Dec 23, 1994 0.09 Dividend
Sep 26, 1994 0.09 Dividend
Jun 24, 1994 0.08 Dividend
Mar 25, 1994 0.08 Dividend
Dec 27, 1993 0.08 Dividend
Sep 24, 1993 0.08 Dividend
Jun 24, 1993 0.08 Dividend
Mar 25, 1993 0.08 Dividend
Dec 24, 1992 0.08 Dividend
Sep 24, 1992 0.08 Dividend
Jun 24, 1992 0.08 Dividend
Mar 25, 1992 0.08 Dividend
Dec 24, 1991 0.08 Dividend
Sep 24, 1991 0.08 Dividend
Jun 24, 1991 0.08 Dividend
Mar 22, 1991 0.08 Dividend
Dec 24, 1990 0.08 Dividend
Sep 24, 1990 0.08 Dividend
Jun 25, 1990 0.08 Dividend
Mar 26, 1990 0.08 Dividend
Dec 26, 1989 0.08 Dividend
Sep 25, 1989 0.06 Dividend
Jun 26, 1989 0.06 Dividend
Mar 27, 1989 0.05 Dividend
Dec 23, 1988 0.05 Dividend
Sep 26, 1988 0.02 Dividend
Jun 24, 1988 0.03 Dividend
Mar 25, 1988 0.02 Dividend
Dec 24, 1987 0.02 Dividend
Sep 24, 1987 0.01 Dividend
Jun 24, 1987 0.01 Dividend
Mar 25, 1987 0.01 Dividend
Dec 24, 1986 0.01 Dividend
Sep 24, 1986 0.02 Dividend
Jun 24, 1986 0.02 Dividend
Mar 24, 1986 0.04 Dividend
Dec 24, 1985 0.04 Dividend
Sep 24, 1985 0.04 Dividend
Jun 24, 1985 0.04 Dividend
Mar 25, 1985 0.04 Dividend
Dec 26, 1984 0.04 Dividend
Sep 24, 1984 0.04 Dividend
Jun 25, 1984 0.04 Dividend
Mar 26, 1984 0.04 Dividend
Dec 27, 1983 0.04 Dividend
Sep 26, 1983 0.04 Dividend
Jun 24, 1983 0.04 Dividend
Mar 25, 1983 0.04 Dividend
Nov 23, 1982 0.04 Dividend
Aug 25, 1982 0.08 Dividend
May 24, 1982 0.08 Dividend
Feb 22, 1982 0.08 Dividend
Nov 23, 1981 0.08 Dividend
Aug 25, 1981 0.08 Dividend
Aug 24, 1981 0.00 Dividend
May 22, 1981 0.08 Dividend
Feb 24, 1981 0.08 Dividend
Nov 21, 1980 0.08 Dividend
Aug 25, 1980 0.08 Dividend
May 27, 1980 0.08 Dividend
Feb 26, 1980 0.08 Dividend
Nov 26, 1979 0.08 Dividend
Aug 27, 1979 0.07 Dividend
May 24, 1979 0.07 Dividend
Feb 23, 1979 0.06 Dividend
Nov 27, 1978 0.06 Dividend
Aug 28, 1978 0.06 Dividend
May 24, 1978 0.06 Dividend
Feb 23, 1978 0.05 Dividend
Nov 25, 1977 0.05 Dividend
Aug 26, 1977 0.05 Dividend
May 25, 1977 0.05 Dividend
Feb 23, 1977 0.05 Dividend
Nov 24, 1976 0.05 Dividend
Aug 25, 1976 0.05 Dividend
May 25, 1976 0.04 Dividend
Feb 24, 1976 0.04 Dividend
Nov 21, 1975 0.04 Dividend
Aug 25, 1975 0.04 Dividend
May 23, 1975 0.04 Dividend
Feb 25, 1975 0.04 Dividend
Nov 22, 1974 0.03 Dividend
Aug 26, 1974 0.03 Dividend
May 24, 1974 0.03 Dividend
Feb 25, 1974 0.03 Dividend
Nov 26, 1973 0.03 Dividend
Aug 27, 1973 0.04 Dividend
May 25, 1973 0.02 Dividend
Feb 23, 1973 0.02 Dividend
Nov 27, 1972 0.02 Dividend

Here comes the pain

For some reason, they issued the 8-K filing before the press release.

I had trouble finding that Deere div news but here it is:

"Deere & Company Raises Quarterly Dividend"

"MOLINE, Ill., Dec. 3, 2024 /CNW/ -- The Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) Board of Directors today declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share payable February 10, 2025, to stockholders of record on December 31, 2024.

The new quarterly rate represents an additional 15 cents per share over the previous level of $1.47.

SOURCE John Deere Company"

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/deere-amp-company-raises-quarterly-dividend-855371733.html#:~:text=MOLINE%2C%20Ill.%2C%20Dec.,the%20previous%20level%20of%20%241.47.

"Unstoppable Dividend Stock Is Up 21% in 3 Months. Here's Why It's Still a Great Buy in December."

"After going practically nowhere for more than three years, shares of Deere (NYSE: DE) finally blasted to a new all-time high on Nov. 25 after the company reported its fiscal fourth-quarter and 2024 results (for the periods ended Oct. 27). But Deere's net income fell by more than 30% in fiscal 2024, and management is projecting even lower earnings in fiscal 2025."

"Expectations are everything

Understanding the importance of expectations is an essential skill for becoming a great investor. A prime example would be Nvidia, which on Nov. 20 reported blowout third-quarter results and raised its outlook for the year. Despite that, the stock price has fallen since then because investors' expectations for the GPU powerhouse had been even higher."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unstoppable-dividend-stock-21-3-100000027.html

Hey, thank's DD. I never chase high dividend stocks. I buy low or moderate div ones (around market rate or currently ~1.4%) and sit tight. More tax efficient that way. But Deere has been stunning for the fairly short time I've had it.

DE raises dividend again:

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000315189/000155837024015982/de-20241203x8k.htm

The new annualized payout is $6.48 (up from $5.88). At the current share price (~$460), the new payout equates to a yield of 1.4%. Although the current yield is not that high, DE has more than doubled the dividend during the he past 5 years.

John Deere shares doing great, raising payouts.

You have to have sales to move higher....local dealer of 7 stores just slashed 30% of their workforce...hmmm.   If DE can make that kind of money on no sales than we are all in trouble. 

DE new 52 week high

Deere is my newest holding. Had it for just a few years. I'll see if I can find div numbers going back further.

DE

Growing yields...🚜

Well stated!!! "Great Quarterly Dividend Grower"

Thanks for sharing that dividend history from 1997 to present.

I was not aware of that dividend trajectory...

Deere, What a Great Quarterly Dividend Grower

Sep 30, 2024 $1.47 Dividend
Jun 28, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Mar 27, 2024 1.47 Dividend
Dec 28, 2023 1.47 Dividend
Sep 28, 2023 1.35 Dividend
Jun 29, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Mar 30, 2023 1.25 Dividend
Dec 29, 2022 1.20 Dividend
Sep 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Jun 29, 2022 1.13 Dividend
Mar 30, 2022 1.05 Dividend
Dec 30, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Sep 29, 2021 1.05 Dividend
Jun 29, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Mar 30, 2021 0.90 Dividend
Dec 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Sep 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Jun 29, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Mar 30, 2020 0.76 Dividend
Dec 30, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Jun 27, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Mar 28, 2019 0.76 Dividend
Dec 28, 2018 0.76 Dividend
Sep 27, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Jun 28, 2018 0.69 Dividend
Mar 28, 2018 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2017 0.60 Dividend
Dec 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Jun 28, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Mar 29, 2016 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Sep 28, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2015 0.60 Dividend
Dec 29, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Sep 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Jun 26, 2014 0.60 Dividend
Mar 27, 2014 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Sep 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Jun 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Mar 26, 2013 0.51 Dividend
Dec 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Sep 26, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Jun 27, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Mar 28, 2012 0.46 Dividend
Dec 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Sep 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Jun 28, 2011 0.41 Dividend
Mar 29, 2011 0.35 Dividend
Dec 29, 2010 0.35 Dividend
Sep 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Jun 28, 2010 0.30 Dividend
Mar 29, 2010 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Sep 28, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2009 0.28 Dividend
Dec 29, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Sep 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Jun 26, 2008 0.28 Dividend
Mar 27, 2008 0.25 Dividend
Dec 27, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Sep 26, 2007 0.25 Dividend
Jun 27, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Mar 28, 2007 0.22 Dividend
Dec 27, 2006 0.22 Dividend
Sep 27, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Jun 28, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Mar 29, 2006 0.20 Dividend
Dec 28, 2005 0.20 Dividend
Sep 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Jun 28, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Mar 29, 2005 0.16 Dividend
Dec 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Sep 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Jun 28, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Mar 29, 2004 0.14 Dividend
Dec 29, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 2003 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Mar 26, 2002 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Jun 27, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Mar 28, 2001 0.11 Dividend
Dec 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Sep 27, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 2000 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Jun 28, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Mar 29, 1999 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Sep 28, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Jun 26, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Mar 27, 1998 0.11 Dividend
Dec 29, 1997 0.11 Dividend
Sep 26, 1997 0.10 Dividend
Jun 26, 1997 $0.10 Dividend

DE FY4Q24 CC transcript:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-q4-2024-earnings-call-230018573.html

Hilarious.

"That post did not age especially well."

That post did not age especially well.

DE issues soft FY2025* guidance—>share price rockets 9%:

https://www.deere.com/assets/pdfs/common/news/deere-4q24-earnings-release.pdf

Background: FY2023* was a peak-cycle year in the agriculture-equipment market (which comprises ~70% of DE’s profits), and hence FY2024* was a down year. DE expects FY2025* to be another down year; on today’s CC, DE described the outlook for FY2025 as “80% of mid-cycle.”

Details: FY2025 net income is expected to be $5.0-5.5B, down from $7.1B in FY2024 and $10.2B in FY2023. Based on an estimated 260M diluted shares, the FY2025 net-income guidance equates to FY2025 GAAP EPS of $19.23-21.15, down from $25.62 in FY2024 and $34.63 in FY2023.

At the current share price (~$440 as I’m typing), the guidance for FY2025 EPS represents a forward P/E of 21-23x.

Based on all of the above, the share price today is +9% to within a hair of its all-time high of $450 in 2023. Why does this make sense? Because DE is a rather different company than it was only a few years. It is now more of a tech company—with material recurring service revenues—than the “boring” cyclical industrial it used to be.


FY4Q24 CC slides:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/253594569/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/DE-4Q24-Earnings-Call-Presentation.pdf

*DE’s fiscal years end on the last Sunday in October. FY4Q24 ran from 7/31/24 to 10/27/24, essentially the Aug/Sep/Oct period.

Nasty drop today.

The farmers have quit buying , we have not seen anything yet

jmho

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-announces-more-layoffs-iowa-203459869.html

ah would you look at that....even more layoffs....they were done.  It's about to get painful.

Thanks for the additional color. I presume that many customers have had a better experience with DE's technology subscriptions than you did.

They do but they are now pricing it where it's unaffordable.   Everything is a subscription.   You don't own it and the year over year costs are way to expensive.   Half the time you have to have a tech out to re sync the system.   Cuts in and out everytime a fault code pops up.  It really is out of hand.

Trump threatens DE with_steep tariff on_equipment_imported_from Mexico:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-vows-call-xi-elected-194518506.html Deere earlier this year said it would lay off 503 workers in Illinois and 310 in Iowa as it faces rising operational costs and declining demand. It’s also acquiring land in Mexico to shift some production previously done in the US.

…“I’m just notifying John Deere right now, if you do that, we’re putting a 200% tariff on everything that you want to sell into the United States,” Trump said Monday, citing reports about the company shifting manufacturing to Mexico. DE was -1.5% in AH trading.

Thanks. DE claims it has superior technology for automated operation. (See #msg-169159692 for related info.)

AGCO...Fendt

Whose equipment will you buy instead?

This I know. I am or should I said was a loyal customer. We farm enough acres to afford 2 combines. We have owned deere equipment for 7 decades. They have made impossible to own their equipment anymore. It isn't reliable and parts are never in stock and they mark up the parts 4 and 500%....

1 combine to trade yoy was 60k 3 years ago, It jumped to 80k 2 years ago and to trade for 2025 it is now 120k....They are doing it to every customer. The inflation jumps they have taken have priced them out of the market. Prepare from a major backlash from the farming consumer. Belts have been tightened.

Construction accounts for ~25% of DE's profits. The ag business is much more consequential for DE.