double_m
4週前
Zacks Equity Research
Mon, February 10, 2025 at 9:55 AM EST 4 min read
Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) closed the last trading session at $9.02, gaining 0.6% over the past four weeks, but there could be plenty of upside left in the stock if short-term price targets set by Wall Street analysts are any guide. The mean price target of $11.33 indicates a 25.6% upside potential.
The mean estimate comprises nine short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $3.11. While the lowest estimate of $4.50 indicates a 50.1% decline from the current price level, the most optimistic analyst expects the stock to surge 66.3% to reach $15. It's very important to note the standard deviation here, as it helps understand the variability of the estimates. The smaller the standard deviation, the greater the agreement among analysts.
While the consensus price target is highly sought after by investors, the ability and unbiasedness of analysts in setting price targets have long been questionable. And investors making investment decisions solely based on this tool would arguably do themselves a disservice.
But, for ACHR, an impressive average price target is not the only indicator of a potential upside. Strong agreement among analysts about the company's ability to report better earnings than they predicted earlier strengthens this view. While a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions doesn't gauge how much a stock could gain, it has proven to be powerful in predicting an upside.
Here's What You Should Know About Analysts' Price Targets
According to researchers at several universities across the globe, a price target is one of many pieces of information about a stock that misleads investors far more often than it guides. In fact, empirical research shows that price targets set by several analysts, irrespective of the extent of agreement, rarely indicate where the price of a stock could actually be heading.
While Wall Street analysts have deep knowledge of a company's fundamentals and the sensitivity of its business to economic and industry issues, many of them tend to set overly optimistic price targets. Are you wondering why?
They usually do that to drum up interest in shares of companies that their firms either have existing business relationships with or are looking to be associated with. In other words, business incentives of firms covering a stock often result in inflated price targets set by analysts.
However, a tight clustering of price targets, which is represented by a low standard deviation, indicates that analysts have a high degree of agreement about the direction and magnitude of a stock's price movement. While that doesn't necessarily mean the stock will hit the average price target, it could be a good starting point for further research aimed at identifying the potential fundamental driving forces.
That said, while investors should not entirely ignore price targets, making an investment decision solely based on them could lead to disappointing ROI. So, price targets should always be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
Why ACHR Could Witness a Solid Upside
Analysts' growing optimism over the company's earnings prospects, as indicated by strong agreement among them in revising EPS estimates higher, could be a legitimate reason to expect an upside in the stock. That's because empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.
Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased 2.2%, as one estimate has moved higher compared to no negative revision.
Moreover, ACHR currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on four factors related to earnings estimates. Given an impressive externally-audited track record, this is a more conclusive indication of the stock's potential upside in the near term. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>
Therefore, while the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of how much ACHR could gain, the direction of price movement it implies does appear to be a good guide.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-analysts-think-archer-145510619.html
double_m
2月前
Archer Aviation is on a promising trajectory
By Justin Pope – Jan 22, 2025 at 8:15AM
When a company doesn't yet generate revenue, investors focus on product development and execution. To Archer Aviation's credit, the company is steadily progressing on its milestones and targets. Just over the past six months, Archer Aviation has:
Secured a contract manufacturing partnership with financial backer Stellantis to help produce Archer Aviation's Midnight aircraft.
Delivered a prototype aircraft to the United States Air Force as part of a contract worth up to $142 million.
Conducted its 400th test flight four months ahead of schedule.
Completed its production facility in Georgia for volume manufacturing (company aims to increase build rate to two aircraft p/month by EOY).
Plans to begin commercial air taxi operations in Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates) as early as this year's Q4.
Additionally, Archer Aviation has $1.5 billion in available funds, including $500 million in cash and zero long-term debt on its balance sheet. The company burned through about $415 million over the past four quarters, so that should buy it time to get its commercial operations off the ground (no pun intended). Archer Aviation has business lined up with early customers, partners, and investors, totaling $6 billion in orders as of Q3 2024.
Analysts anticipate the company will generate around $261 million in revenue in 2025 and steadily build to $1.1 billion in 2028. That could easily change if the company lands additional orders.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/01/22/should-you-buy-archer-aviation-while-its-below-10/
IronSeer69
2月前
I continue to research….
I found this article:
https://evtolinsights.com/2024/05/interview-with-joby-founder-and-ceo-joeben-bevirt/
The article states:
“The feature leads with the catchy headline “Manhattan to JFK in 7 minutes in ‘Affordable’ electric air taxi.” It is interesting to note the term ‘Electric Air Taxi’ is beginning to be used more within the media compared to descriptions like Flying Taxi, eVTOL and, thank goodness, Flying Car.
Gombar begins the interview, “Leaving New York often starts with the long slog out to JFK. Joby Aviation wants to change that and says it is set to launch its electric air taxi service next year at a price that is comparable to a conventional premium cab.” She then quotes Bevirt, “A trip will be cost competitive with the Uber Black service initially and will become an increasingly more affordable service.”
Gombar explains the initial rides will likely take passengers from the centre of New York or Los Angeles to the airport, pointing out that an Uber Black taxi from Midtown Manhattan to JFK costs around USD200, followed by a series of quotes from Bevirt before the main interview begins.”
I checked the approximate mileage on google earth from Manhattan to JFK: it is approximately 14 miles as the crow flies
That is substantially more than $3-5/mile. If Uber Black is $200.00, that makes the per mile rate at least $14-15/mile for Joby, And I highly doubt the initial price offerings will be that low. Remember, they have significant R&D, etc., to recoup before realizing a “profit.”
Thank you all for your insight and input.
The research continues….
IronSeer69
2月前
I saw that - an investor group put together to buy the assets of Lilium. But the deal has not closed from what I have been able to find, but it is expected to sometime this month. And I also see that Archer, Joby, EHang, Vertical Aerospace, and just a few others, are the real players remaking.
I still think that Archer, Joby, EHang, etc. will make it to the market. And maybe even this year in extremely limited capacity. And then start to ramp up after that. But profitability is a long way off while they scale up. And the stock will see lots of ups and downs. A big “up” in my opinion will be when they get their Type Certificate from the FAA for their first models. And Archer and Joby are ahead of the pack with that process from what I can find. And that process is ardurous, to say the least. And. Although it appears to becoming, they are behind, again, from what I can find out there, on their timetables. Which is not hard to believe because everything in aviation takes longer than initially anticipated.
Is there any information out there as to pricing of a typical ride for the consumer? Will it be $100.00 for a 10 mile flight or $1,000? I would love to see this part of their business plan.
Still doing research on the industry. There is a lot of information out their to sift through.
Is anyone out there with a source for this information?
blackcat
2月前
Here's a bit of comp on Helos vs. eVTOLs. (ACHR gets a mention)
When examining the emerging eVTOL (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) market against the established helicopter industry, the question of cost becomes central. eVTOLs represent a new class of aircraft designed to take advantage of advances in electric propulsion, autonomous systems, and lighter materials. These vehicles promise a new mode of urban and regional transportation, but how do they stack up in terms of price against the tried-and-true helicopter?
Initial acquisition costs
The price tags of eVTOLs and conventional helicopters are one of the most straightforward comparisons, yet they reveal intriguing insights into the economics of new versus established technologies. A typical new light helicopter, such as the Bell 407, can cost between $2.5 million and $3 million. For medium-sized helicopters like the Airbus H145, the price often escalates to around $10 million or more. Heavy-lift helicopters, like the Sikorsky S-92, can exceed $27 million.
In contrast, eVTOLs are expected to enter the market at a significantly lower cost, with estimates ranging between $1 million and $5 million. The variance largely depends on the complexity of the eVTOL system, the battery capacity, and the autonomous features. Archer Aviation, for instance, has targeted a price of around $1 million for its first production model. This difference suggests that eVTOLs might be more accessible, especially for urban operators looking for a less expensive entry point into vertical flight.
Operating expenses and maintenance
Beyond the initial purchase price, operating costs are a critical factor in determining the total cost of ownership. Conventional helicopters are notorious for their high operational expenses. Fuel consumption is significant, with turboshaft engines requiring large amounts of aviation fuel (which is both expensive and has a substantial environmental impact). Maintenance for helicopters is frequent and costly, often involving inspections after every 100 hours of flight, along with more extensive overhauls after 1,000 hours.
eVTOLs, in contrast, benefit from electric propulsion systems that are simpler, with fewer moving parts than a helicopter’s complex gearbox and rotor system. This simplicity translates to potentially lower maintenance costs and longer intervals between servicing.
Furthermore, the cost of electricity is generally lower than that of aviation fuel, reducing operational expenses. However, the cost and lifespan of batteries remain a variable. While lithium-ion batteries have improved, they still represent a significant portion of the eVTOL’s operating costs, both in terms of initial investment and eventual replacement.
Insurance and regulatory costs
Insurance is another area where costs diverge. Helicopters, due to their long-established use and extensive safety data, have relatively predictable insurance premiums. eVTOLs, being new to the market, might face higher premiums initially as insurers gauge the risks associated with these aircraft. The regulatory environment also plays a role.
Helicopters are fully integrated into the current aviation regulatory frameworks, whereas eVTOLs will need to navigate new certification processes, which could incur additional costs. However, if eVTOLs prove to be safer, as some proponents suggest, insurance premiums could decrease over time, potentially making them more competitive than helicopters.
The impact of scale and production methods
Production methods and economies of scale are crucial in determining costs. Helicopters are typically produced in small numbers, which keeps prices high. eVTOLs promise to disrupt this model by leveraging automotive-style production lines. Companies like Joby Aviation and Lilium are aiming for high production volumes, which could dramatically reduce unit costs. If successful, this approach might not only make eVTOLs cheaper to buy but also to maintain, as mass-produced parts are usually less expensive than bespoke components.
Market dynamics and future projections
It’s important to consider that the eVTOL market is still in its infancy. Prices for eVTOLs are speculative at this stage and subject to change as the industry matures. The current helicopter market is relatively stable, with prices reflecting decades of refinement, supply chains, and economies of scale. The eVTOL market could experience significant price adjustments as technologies evolve, production scales up, and regulatory hurdles are overcome.
Additionally, the cost-benefit analysis of eVTOLs versus helicopters will heavily depend on the specific use case. eVTOLs are expected to excel in short-range, urban environments where their lower operating costs and zero-emission profiles provide distinct advantages. However, for longer-range missions or heavy-lift capabilities, conventional helicopters may retain their dominance due to their proven reliability and versatility.
https://flyingcarsmarket.com/comparing-the-cost-of-evtols-and-conventional-helicopters/
double_m
2月前
Valid concerns that can only be appreciated. One thing I will say though is that this 'pending' sector will be more comparible to the helicopter service sector than private fixed wing aircraft sector. I looked into helicopter flight costs in LA and NYC, and I found prices between $300 and $500 for tours that last 30-45 min. This sector is intended to be one of mere convenience, short distances (10-20 min) from a central hub (Southwest/United/Japan Airlines with Archer and Delta's plans with J*BY) to surrounding areas like suburbs, boroughs, internal city areas that would take a significant amount of travel time otherwise due to traffic conditions. I can speak for NYC where it takes sometimes between 1-2 hours to travel less than 30 miles. Absolute chaos and a horrendous journey to get from one place to the next, every single day!
I can't speak to what operating costs would look like initially or if it would rival inner city helicopter transportation, but I suspect those costs would be significantly cut in time. Also, as time progresses and the size of the fleet increases, customer pricing will be figured out. I say that to say that I don't believe you have to be a millionaire to utilize this mode of transportation.
The thing that's most interesting isn't just the big names investing in the success of the company, but the ones that have purchase orders in for aircraft - currently ~$6B for aircrafts that cost about $5M each. I don't put too much faith in the Air Force and Anduril as a near term significant source of revenue, but the deal with Future Flight Global alone is a different story. This is a purchase agreement for 116 and based on my research of them, this UK-based company is already building a huge network to launch their air taxi services here in the US and overseas in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. So it's not simply a case of Archer having a business model of production and utilization, but sales. That's a huge plus! Besides, I have more faith in overseas markets than I do in US because of bureaucracy and pushback when it comes to launching a new sector and/or disrupting another.
Archer seems to be leading the way right now, with J*BY close behind, and there is plenty of market for both to successfully coexist. I'm optimistic you won't be disappointed holding for significant growth in this sector. GLTY!!!
IronSeer69
2月前
So, I made a mistake. I bought a few shares, not much, and made a few bucks and sold. I forgot I had a buy order in at a lower price that I forgot to cancel and it executed. Dang. And now I am in it and losing a few bucks as I write this.
I am a private pilot and love the aviation world. I have known a couple of people in the aviation business and one time, when I was considering doing a small business venture with someone, I got the best advice from someone about it. He told me this: “If you want to make a small fortune in aviation, start with a large one!”
I believe these air taxi’s have limited income potential. John Doe’s will never be able to afford them and there are only so many millionaires out there that will. They will be a novelty for some time but eventually, they will be for the rich. And that market will be limited. Just like private air travel. I used to own a single engine plane and that field of aviation is dying because of cost. All of my pilot friend have almost, but not quite, quit flying. Why? Because a flight in their lanes cost at least 5x’s more than commercial. Not kidding. Fuel, insurance, maintenance. Yes, it is more fun and convenient. But. The money is ridiculous.
So, I will wait it out and when Archer and Joby get some good FAA news, I think we shall see a significant rise from where we are right now, and then I think many people will get out.
Maybe just venting at my stupidity, but these are my thoughts.
double_m
2月前
Analysts playing their games with $ACHR again. Sad how they can manipulate price action with these so-called ratings!
___________________________________________
Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR)
Analyst Upside as of January 14, 2025: 33%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 24
Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) is a rapidly growing aircraft company with a mission to develop high-performing vertical take-off and landing aircraft in urban networks. Over the past few months, the company has accelerated its certification processes and signed partnerships, positioning it as an emerging leader in aircraft technology. For instance, on December 19 the company announced the completion of a high-volume aircraft manufacturing facility, emphasizing what 2025 has in store for the stock.
On January 8, analyst firm Canaccord raised its price target for ACHR to $14 from $11, maintaining a buy rating on the stock. The rationale behind such is that the analyst firm believes in the transformative technology under development at Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR). This explains why the company is rapidly enforcing crucial partnerships, accelerating its inevitable product launch. Aligning with the goal, on December 12, Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE:ACHR) announced a strategic partnership with Anduril to make hybrid vertical take-off and landing aircraft.
Overall, the stock has shown great performance and is quite promising as it takes on large companies and the government as clients. Analysts are also bullish on the stock and their median price target implies an upside of 33% from current levels.
Overall, ACHR ranks 10th on our list of stocks that will go to the moon according to Reddit. While we acknowledge the potential of ACHR to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that certain AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ACHR but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/is-archer-aviation-achr-the-stock-that-will-go-to-the-moon-according-to-reddit/ar-AA1xgsCg?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=8431f225f16e4910a7828f26f36e7e62&ei=45
double_m
2月前
Archer Aviation: From Air Taxis to Aerial Warfare
Story by Jeffrey Neal Johnson, MarketBeat • 5h •
Archer Defense: Entering a New Strategic Airspace
Archer Aviation has taken a decisive step to diversify its revenue streams by establishing Archer Defense, a division dedicated to developing military-grade VTOL aircraft. This strategic move is a significant shift for the company, expanding its focus beyond the commercial eVTOL market.
Buyback Initiative: A Bullish Signal From the Top
CEO Adam Goldstein's directive to his team to explore aggressive stock buyback options sends a powerful message to the market. This initiative signals management's belief that Archer Aviation's stock is currently undervalued and represents a compelling investment opportunity. A stock buyback can reduce the number of outstanding shares, potentially increasing earnings per share and boosting investor confidence. This move, coupled with the establishment of Archer Defense, indicates a proactive approach to enhancing shareholder value and driving growth.
Financial Fortitude and Strategic Alliances
Archer Aviation's financials are healthy, enabling the company to execute its ambitious growth strategy. A recent $430 million equity raise, backed by existing partners Stellantis and United Airlines and new institutional investors like Wellington Management and Abu Dhabi's 2PointZero, brings the total capital raised to nearly $2 billion. This substantial influx of capital not only solidifies Archer's balance sheet but also provides the financial resources to advance the development and commercialization of its eVTOL aircraft.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/archer-aviation-from-air-taxis-to-aerial-warfare/ar-AA1wUgnm?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=fa623b892078487099f2f7c8821fecf6&ei=89
double_m
2月前
Sector took another hit today. I wonder if and/or how news like this effects the overall sentiment.
_________________________________________________________________________________
This eVTOL Startup Has Filed for Bankruptcy
The promised air taxi future appears to be slowly giving way to a robotaxi reality, but some investors remain confident.
By Jay RameyPublished: Jan 02, 2025 10:56 AM EST
Germany's Volocopter has entered insolvency proceedings in its home country after a number of successful prototype demos in recent months.
The startup's craft uses a large number of individual propellers arranged around an overhead ring structure, as in a hobby drone, while featuring a small helicopter-style cabin.
Air taxis in development are now thought to see a serious challenge from robotaxis, as driverless car tech spreads and becomes more affordable to scale.
As the eVTOL industry approaches a moment of truth, and a growing robotaxi market, those that have made it this far are now facing a difficult transition period.
Days after German eVTOL startup Lilium was able to find new investors to save itself at the last minute, another German eVTOL startup, Volocopter, has filed for insolvency proceedings.
"With one of the lowest burn rates in the industry, Volocopter has successfully operated in an extremely difficult financial environment," the company said in a statement. "However, despite recent intensive fundraising efforts, finding a viable solution to maintain regular operations outside of insolvency proceedings has not been possible." ...
https://www.autoweek.com/news/a63322209/volocopter-evtol-startup-bankrupt/
double_m
2月前
Why Archer Aviation Stock Skyrocketed Today
Story by Keith Noonan • 5h • 3 min read
Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) stock posted explosive gains in Tuesday's trading, which saw the market close at 1 p.m. for the Christmas Eve holiday. The company's share price ended the abbreviated daily trading session up 15.1%.
Archer Aviation surged today following some big news in the defense industry. According to a report from The Financial Times, Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) is teaming up with defense-tech innovator Anduril to form a new consortium that aims to make big waves in the defense space -- and it could have implications for Archer.
Are Palantir and Anduril about to shake up the defense industry?
Palantir and Anduril are reportedly aiming to create a new power block in the defense industry. The FT's report says the two companies are talking to businesses including OpenAI, SpaceX, Scale AI, and Saronic to form a defense consortium that aims to challenge industry stalwarts, including RTX, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing.
Palantir and Anduril are innovation-focused players in the defense industry, with the former company being a leader in artificial intelligence (AI) software and the latter working on unmanned vehicles and robotics. The list of companies that the two partners are said to be approaching for their consortium suggests they're aiming to build a network of disruptive, next-gen tech players with the ability to outcompete current industry leaders in emerging categories. Archer Aviation investors are understandably excited.
What comes next for Archer Aviation stock?
On Dec. 12, Archer published a press release announcing that it had entered a partnership with Anduril to develop flying electric vehicles for the defense industry. Anduril has already won U.S. defense contracts, and the team-up has the potential to be a powerful catalyst for Archer. While Archer wasn't specifically named as a potential partner approached for the proposed defense consortium with Palantir, it seemingly makes for a natural candidate.
Archer Aviation recently said that it expects to begin production at its Georgia plant in the beginning of 2025, and CEO Adam Goldstein has said he expects commercial flights to begin next year. With a promising outlook on the defense front and the potential for commercial flights to kick off next year, Archer stock could keep rallying.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/why-archer-aviation-stock-skyrocketed-today/ar-AA1wrvh5?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=f41e0b729ee94750934318753c60a585&ei=6
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