Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) オプション

Something not discussed often is the amount of trials and patients actively enrolling. It’s a hefty part of cash burn and resources. Once TILVANCE-301 and LUN-202 are finished, it’s going to reduce a lot of that cash burn. END-201 and GM1-201 are small trials. As will be COM-202-3D.

GMH, I won't disagree with that, but I do think a spike in Amtagvi sales is right around the corner where some exponential growth will start to occur, but no reason to guide for that as of yet. Once more ATCs earn their stripes, we'll see that accelerated growth. I think Q1 to Q2 growth will take a lot of investors by surprise based on comps with CAR-T and such (Kymriah, Yescarta for example). I do think Iovance will be able to update and increase guidance after Q1 (don't know if they will).

Back to your main point, timing of cash raises has been terribly timed imo.

That’s an understatement. They should’ve been hammering it like hell throughout approval and for a few months after.

These guys have to be the worst at timing their stock sales.

I think the latter. The average was mid 5s. They’re going to dilute once or twice more before they’re at breakeven which I think is late next year.

ATCs are slow to ramp up and it’s going to take a year before the existing 70 are all at peak operations. Only a few of them currently are. That’s why I think the first half of this year will be rough. They can only be efficient when they’re manufacturing alot of TILs. They can have the capability and the demand but without slots it doesn’t work.

Thankfully all the US + ex-US ATCs will rely on manufacturing at the ICTC and as it scales up the efficiency will scale with it.

And of course by then frontline will be around the corner to secure sufficient demand for profitability for many years.

I’ll wait to talk about it later but I’m quite bullish on LUN-202 data as well.

Thanks - so 22M shares sold since Jan 1, Hope it was early and they sold in the 7+ range before the stock tanked... or maybe cause the stock to tank.

Ah GMH they did use ATM. Share count is 327M and their runway is until end of 2026 now.

What a rough yesterday and the hangover continues today. My broker texted me after the earnings release to say that Iovance had put out a problematic quarter. I responded with "why? they beat revenue, reiterated guidance and cash runway is good for another year."

His response was "they are not meeting their data points, that is all that matters"

what does this mean. INFUSIONS... not enough growth and they are being punished for it until they can prove otherwise.

street was expecting way more than the 95 they reported, i cant remember exactly but they were wanted/expected 107-120?

response below is from stocktwits - 6MILFHUNTER9

Street consensus for Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 infusion numbers are likely 141, 176, 216, and 247 patients respectively.

What mgmt is guiding from this earnings call is infusion numbers of 107, 142, 184, 227 respectively.

Why didn't they disclose Q1 infusion numbers at this time?

They likely only had around ~71 infusions.

When? Where do you see that? Yes, they have an ATM, but I do not think they hit it. Share count as of 9/30/24 was 304,620,000 and share count as of 12/31/24 was 304,890,000, most likely increase was stock grants. Any raise would have had to occur in Jan/Feb, but I do not see any statement saying that.

They had an open ATM that they hit. same thing as an offerng

Company on the verge of merger/acquisition.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175821245

GMH, check out page 1 of the 10-K at the bottom. https://ir.iovance.com/financial-information/sec-filings

"The aggregate market value of the registrant’s common stock held by non-affiliates on June 30, 2024, the last business day of the registrant’s most recently completed second fiscal quarter, was approximately $2.1 billion. Shares of common stock held by directors and executive officers and any ten percent or greater stockholders and their respective affiliates have been excluded from this calculation, because such stockholders may be deemed to be "affiliates" of the Registrant. This is not necessarily determinative of affiliate status of other purposes. As of February 21, 2025, there were 327,876,694 shares of the registrant’s common stock outstanding."

Not certain if this answers the question specifically as I haven't dug any further.

I have seen several posts stating that they raised cash thru a dilution, but I cannot find anything to support that. The share count increased modestly (under 1M shares) and I did not see any statement that they raised funds since year-end. Can someone please point me to the source where you are seeing dilution?

Theory, well, most cylinders anyway. There's a few cylinders that could be firing a bit better, but they're definitely working on them. Their new Chief Commercial Officer is already correcting for a few things that were lagging. GL

Largely agree with this. The 2027+ outlook is incredibly bright. To me this is a pseudo clinical commercial stage company with some income from 2L MM but it’s frontline MM, NSCLC, and endometrial that are the future. And most importantly IOV-5001. I have no optimism until lung data but I’m also not remotely worried here. I also didn’t over extend myself and so I don’t ever need the money I put here. And I’ll be slowly adding more as well.

The only way IOVA succeed is to arm it with DC Vaccine combination!!
Otherwise is just a hype IMO....

What changes investor sentiment more than anything? Decline in share price. Got a lot of arm chair QBs trying to justify the decline in price and blaming execution. The last time i checked the company is firing on all cylinders.

You gotta ignore that noise.

FWIW, I did add a few shares today below $4. For everyone that wants to blame the shorts, why do you now blame the company?

This was a very successful short attack, conditions were perfect for such an action. Negative sentiment in the sector, Iovance mostly met their guidance but didn't beat investor's expectations, 2025 guidance wasn't raised (yet), perception/belief that the company is not growing fast enough, money raised through dilution (somewhat expected and predicted, but still not a positive for most investors), but the short attack was happening before the market went into after hours trading and the full report was known.

I'm going to say this was fully preplanned and orchestrated. Not happy, but such is life in the stock market. Shorts may have seen a chance to start covering especially if they've arrived at the belief that Iovance is going to succeed. If that's the case, they needed to act aggressively and in unison to shake loose a lot of shares.

Good luck to the longs. I believe Iovance still has a very bright future, cancer patients will benefit as a result as will we as investors.

Yeah i'm in agreement. They are setting targets and knocking them down. It sucks having connected guy controlling the stock, but it what it is. You see this liquidity yesterday and today.......this is exit liquidity for the large 60M plus short interest. I think the worst is behind us here.

did you not respond to my post???

You are in my head? Don't flatter yourself. I have no room for trash.

GMH, maybe no holiday slow down was perceived because they had a maintenance shut down (I believe) that may have covered for what could have been viewed as seasonality. Not 100% certain on the dates, but either way, there was some disruption in production timing is my guess. Q1 may be tracking just fine, maybe even very fine which would also be reason not to share infusion numbers to date as it may be skewed a bit too high for the first month which would give an unrealistic view of the full Q. Just thoughts, don't know

Sunman, you never really learn. I'm a pied piper? No. Cheerleader? That one is probably true. But delusional? Certainly not.

Current stock price sucks. I bought more today below $4. Future is still very bright. The company is performing as expected based on their words and guidance, but well below what I and many wanted and expected. Who's at fault? The company or are we for expecting more than what was likely for a new never before marketed commercial TIL therapy product that is now just 1 year old.

Both is my belief. The company isn't the best at messaging and adding detail to their comments, and we're guilty of expecting a rational marketplace for this stock.

My average cost is significantly higher, but I also expect that the time necessary to see my shares worth substantially more is still within a 1-2 year window. Not as soon as I had previously thought, but not even remotely out of the comparative running of successful early stage commercial companies.

Buy, sell, your money, your rules, your decisions. I'll be responsible for mine.

Good luck to the longs.

no i understand there is more to investing than science unlike yourself. but keep talking man i guess i live rent free in your head.

You came to BS on this board too. You are just a clueless minion having no respect for science.

no we aren't in purgatory. this was a move by those that control the stock. added sub $4.

Not a chance... we are in purgatory (or maybe hell) for at least another 6 months.

Can we see $5.00 today?

I calculate it at about 32 ($9.1M / ($515k x (1-45% GM). That would mean the drop rate is about 25% (32/(95+32). Room for improvement as I think long term target should be about 15%.

Other point of note is that Work in Progress and Finished Goods both increased substantially at Q4 ($4M and $5M respectively). Since they shipped so much Proleukin, seems this may be cells in production/ready or already shipped but not infused. If so, that would indicate another 18 patients (but Fred said no holiday slow-down so may be grasping at straws here.

Demand sucks. Sneaky Dilutions are unending. Float is 330 million. This one is being run to the ground. You are all wrong about this one. Just stop pumping it non-stop. Stop it. The sky is falling and some folks keep pumping. Must have their head buried in sand or have incentive to keep pumping and playing pied piper.
This is dead money in 2025. Everyone got played by a bunch of manipulators. What a shit show.

This played out exactly. Added after hours and will continue building my position. I put in multiple orders increasing in size down to the all time low. I think this is the last leg down, and will consolidate and chop sideways. Going to scale out of position at any bump up to $6 and up. That’s my plan. Good luck guys

New corporate updates and a new corporate deck.

Stay up to date with Iovance and IOVA. Here's some source material to help with your due diligence.

The Iovance corporate presentation: https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/a829b645-572a-407d-8a9c-325a07d6e3f3

Iovance is a fast growing company with a lot of career opportunities: https://www.iovance.com/current-opportunities/

Iovance events and presentations: https://ir.iovance.com/news-events/events-presentations

Who owns Iovance? : https://ir.iovance.com/stock-information/ownership-summary

Here's the approved TIL therapy for Melanoma: https://www.amtagvi.com/

Share the company, share the news, and most definitely share with friends and family that may be dealing with cancer. Numerous other trials for solid tumor cancers are going on at this time: https://www.iovance.com/patients/

Good luck to the longs. Good health for friends and family.

GMH, wouldn't that equate to 18 more infusions? Or is this a reasonable amount for that metric? Not certain what's acceptable.

Patient drop off / Manufacturing OOS was $9.1M so this was not the reason for the drop in revenue. I do question if they get revenue for IL2 and then charge R&D the same for IL2, but that is just and accounting thing. You say stock is really cheap, but I am now thinking that is for a reason. Only hope is that WIP/Finished Products is an indication of Q1 infusions. Just wish they had an answer for why the low revenue rate, but being circumspect, just leads to doubt.

Hicham, there's several catalysts yet to come this year, and one additional thing that could easily help is a change in the biotech sector sentiment. Currently out of favor and any reversal in that sentiment will work wonders for the better dogs in the fight - Iovance.

Good luck and stay well. We'll be here for a while longer.

This is disappointing. While nothing has changed as far as the company is concerned, the qualification of  "being long" did. Patience is measured as far as IOVA is concerned in years and not months, I fear that there will be no significant change in SP before 2026.

SB, with a deeper dive, I think Q1 is actually going to be just fine and based on cash burn and expected revs for 2025, Q4 of this year is still in the running to be our first profitable quarter. It may only be a cent or two, but the numbers work based on the expected growth of sales Q over Q for all of 2025.

This beat down on the stock price stinks of being orchestrated and preplanned. Everyone knew what the numbers were going to be, or at least the total revs number, so it would have taken a big surprise beat or some unexpected data release to sway the powers that be from crushing the stock price given the overall negative sentiment at this time in this sector. IMHO of course.

Good luck to the longs. The ride took a dramatic turn today from a stock price perspective, but I'm still on board knowing where this ride we call Iovance is headed.

Looking at 2025, it’s clear that data readouts and ex-US expansion are the most important catalysts.

It’s indisputable Q4 was and Q1 will be quite pathetic for growth but there were several factors at play:

- they’re running a lot of trials and dedicating resources to them as well as towards commercialization of amtagvi
- holiday clearly affected ATC operations
- majority of ATCs recently part of network are not yet running and many more ATCs still ramping up
- some amount of ICTC downtime late last year or during Q1

I think these will all improve quarter after quarter and year over year.

Their manufacturing capacity is increasing, already at 1200/yr. There will be enough demand and manufacturing next year to bring this very close to break even. Sometime in 2027 at the latest.

And when frontline is approved, that demand in melanoma alone will not be going anywhere for many years.

But lastly I think it’s going to be a long year. I’m not bothered because I was always looking at ~2028 and a reasonable valuation. Nothing I saw today made me question that.

I would not take that as a bad sign as they stated that they were moving away from giving infusions numbers so it make sense to not give numbers to date this quarter.

Here is the start of this breakdown....could see this coming from a mile away. going to start nibbling.

GMH, the total billable infusions was a stumble, but do we know what the OOS percentage was? There was a reference to still getting paid for Proleukin even when the OOS product couldn't be billed even though it does get used for an infusion. I would appreciate it if Iovance management would offer more detail so that we can understand just what is going on in total and what the future looks like as more of these process improvements take place.

Proleukin sales imply growth and a likely increase in guidance is coming if the % of OOS product continues to drop (improved manufacturing success). My guess is we'll get that guidance update after the Q1 for any number of reasons including improved community outreach and patient totals (sales).

Stock price is ridiculously cheap regardless. Cash runway is healthy, more dilution occurred, but not enough to justify this drop in price.

Did you get the impression that they were trying to not disclose that 95 infusion number?
The first question from GS asked about the number of patients infused so far this quarter and they said they would not be disclosing this metric. However near the end of the call when they were asked about patients infused in Q4 they were forthcoming with the number.

And the fact that they did not give the Q1 infusions to date is also a bad sign. I just do not buy the "we didn't think people found that metric useful" BS line,
The (after hours) market seems to agree with that.

And the fact that they did not give the Q1 infusions to date is also a bad sign. I just do not buy the "we didn't think people found that metric useful" BS line,

I see. Ok that is what is causing the sell off. Market does not care about proleukin sales. Al they want to see is growth of patients infused. So they only added 13 patients Q/Q. I will be interested to see how this opens tomorrow, but of course we are in a macro sell off currently which always weighs on speculative small caps. IMO - the market agrees that this therapy is life changing, they are questioning its commercial viability. The shorts have been right on this one. They have been huge in numbers and convicted to their positions. Oh and IMO, They really need to move on from an interim CEO.

Questions- Did perceptive reduce their position in IOVA?
Did you get the impression that they were trying to not disclose that 95 infusion number?

I think consensus was 107-118 from the analyst community.

Share price dump says it all. It’s a sad day for IOVA believers and long shareholders.
$4 stock with an innovative therapy. $8 would be 100% gain. Will it happen in 2025?

Wow. This is straight up rough. So what was the number of infusions that would have been satisfactory growth?
It sounded like they did 95 which was an increase from 82?

Sorry longs... 🫠 I feel your pain

Beat was due to Proleukin stocking, not patient infusions.

Report looks good. They did as well or better on the projections. So why is the PPS tanking?

Significant Demand for Amtagvi® (Lifileucel) Continues with Total Product Revenue of $73.7M in 4Q24 and $164.1M in FY24, Achieving Upper End of FY24 Guidance Range of $160M-$165M

Reaffirming FY25 Total Product Revenue Guidance of $450M-$475M

FY25 Cash Burn Anticipated to be Under $300M

2025 Regulatory Approvals for Amtagvi Expected in the UK, EU, and Canada

Enrollment Accelerating Across Global Registrational Trials in Frontline Advanced Melanoma and Previously Treated Advanced NSCLC

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/02/27/3034267/0/en/Iovance-Biotherapeutics-Reports-Financial-Results-and-Corporate-Updates-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024.html