badgerkid
4日前
GMH, good points. The major funds along with WR have mostly added to their positions since approval, so that's an indication to me of what they're seeing. Agreed that some traders have moved on to different pastures, but I won't go as far as to say greener. If it's daily action that they're looking for, IOVA may no longer be that stock for some of them.
We do know there are numerous upcoming events that if timed properly will allow for some trades in IOVA, but we've also recently seen that the share price is still open to the vagaries of a fickle market and the abuses of hedge funds and market makers that can play the stock price as opportunities present themselves. Back to $8 is great if you're still trying to build a position, it's also potentially good if you're swing trading, but it's frustrating if expectations were we'd never see these prices again following a very solid Q3.
Referencing a friend (you know who you are) who's been preaching the need for the market to see 3-4 full Q's of earnings with reasonable revenue growth along with solid 2025 guidance offered with the Q4 results, at that point we should see more stability in the stock price and likely higher highs as well. The good news is that's when many of my shares will be long term capital gains should I decide to sell a few. Personally I expect the much bigger share price numbers to start appearing later in 2025, and by bigger I mean 3-5x or more from where we're at now (the upper range of the analysts' price targets) so why sell too soon?
GMH. keep sharing, it's always appreciated.
Good luck to the longs.
BK
GMH*
4日前
At the beginning of this year, IOVA was considered a clinical biotech start-up. Starting in Q1 2024, IOVA is now considered as a commercial biotech. That shift is similar to the ones you get when a company goes from a high growth company to a value company. As a clinical stage biotech, the valuation is based solely on the pipeline and trial readouts and buyout potential. As a commercial stage biotech, there is going to be a shift for people looking more to the financials. I am wondering if we are not range-bound until the company can show continued top-line growth, margin improvement and road to profitability. I think IOVA is making good progress in that regard, but I suspect you do get a bit of a shift in investor base in moving between those 2 stages. I have found that clinical stage biotechs are always simply trades as you just move from catalyst to capital raise, rinse, repeat with the hopes of a buyout at the end. Commercial stage biotechs have the 3rd option of moving towards a viable stand alone company. This does not mean that a buyout will never happen, but it doesn't need to be the only endpoint.
badgerkid
1週前
JDC, you moderate a board for a stock that is trading sub 1 cent and you're here to protect us from posters who may celebrate this investment from time to time. We were all "unsuspecting newbies" at one time, and yet here we are, succeeding (sometimes just surviving) in this shark infested water of investing.
Lesson one, do not rely on any message board for accuracy of info. Lesson two, if someone tells you they're here of their own free will to protect you from some other poster, question their intentions.
Message boards are great places to share ideas and to encourage additional due diligence prior to any investing decision. We've all inadvertently posted incorrect information, even when we had no intention of pumping or lying. Feel free to stay and share, but please don't presume to save us from ourselves. Nearly everyone here has already learned the lesson that they are personally responsible to verify information shared by others.
Personal responsibility - your money, your rules.
JDC, since you're a moderator, maybe revisit what you've agreed to do and to not do when you accepted that role. As for sharing individual trades, lead by example if that's what you believe is of great importance.
Good luck to the IOVA longs.
badgerkid
1週前
GMH, that was more of a statement, and yes, fully aware of that. My point was one of implication - meaning since WR has not reported any purchases, he may be locked out due to having MNPI - material non-public information. If he's involved in any on-going discussions with possible suitors for the company, he would not be able to buy or sell. That's all I meant by stating it the way I did. As always, thanks and have a great weekend. BK
badgerkid
1週前
GMH, if you want to see some unexpected put risk, take a peak at today's SMCI options. There's a lot of new shareholders today that thought they were totally safe when they sold those puts that were way out of the money a while back.
When I sell puts, I like to limit my exposure to shares I'm willing to buy anyway even if my expectations are that I won't ever see those shares. I did sell a handful more today on IOVA for Jan and Mar with a willingness to add those shares if necessary. I do have some puts that I sold a while ago that are currently underwater, but I suspect they won't be at expiration. It's always possible that they could put those shares to me sooner, but not likely as there is still some premium attached to those contracts. Again, I'm okay with that as I'm still accumulating shares, but I certainly didn't expect these levels would be seen once more.
Today was a very healthy pullback across the board and especially in this sector (see XBI) on fear and uncertainty. As for Iovance, all the reasons to be long haven't changed. Whether you bought at $14 or $7 (I've done both), the future of this company will make both of those prices seem like good deals in time.
Have a great weekend. Good luck to the longs.
GMH*
2週前
For valuations on these pre- or early revenue companies, I try to create a pro-forma P&L looking out 3-5 years (to estimated peak sales). I then adjust the parameters as facts emerge. For a lot of biotechs, you hear people say "but they have an approved drug/treatment", but if the target patient population is too small, they will never get to profitability, even with a treatment at $2+M. People also always over-estimate adoption. Even for IOVA, people say "these patients are dying, of course they will treat", but even looking at my mom, who is 92 and relatively healthy (for 92), if she developed MM, I am 100% sure she would not treat, even if she was eligible. This is critical to getting to the "real" treatment population.
Having said that, I think IOVA does tick the boxes. For US population, I estimate peak patients at 1,800 for L2+. RoW should add about about 2,200 patients (ramping end 2025), but at a 15% price discount, for a total incoming at 4,000. Hitting about 100 patients/month should allow IOVA to hit efficiency to get to GM target of 70% (ultimately I think they can get to 75%-80%). This also assumes a drop rate moving down to 20% (which was where the trials were but higher FDA cell count requirement in the Assay hurt that). These two alone, get to a $35-40 price, assuming IBB PE and a PEG of 1.5. I think EU/RoW approval at 90%+ since CAR-T was approved. Adding L1, other IND including NSCLC only leverages the bottom line up and the SP would be multiples of the price noted.
Bottom line, for my core holdings, it only matter where I bought it (ave $9.90) and where I sell it (I expect much much higher). On the pullbacks and events, I use options to "play the game", just need to make sure I do not over do it so I can stay in the game.
badgerkid
2週前
GMH, Perceptive did add a small amount, MHR is unchanged. Updates will be posted on the company website soon enough. Perceptive's filing posted today: https://ir.iovance.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/sc-13ga/0001193125-24-258737 .
JE, MHR, and WR do seem to be in lockstep with each other based on share totals. WR with the most, Vanguard now 2nd on the list, JE of Perceptive 3rd, and MHR currently 4th. I'm unaware of any other major changes coming that would knock any of these 4 off the top spots.
The top 10 institutions have controlling interest of Iovance with over 54% of the shares for whatever that may mean. It won't take much to get agreement should the time come for a vote of the shareholders.
All still looks solid and stable amongst the top owners, but share price is still frustrating regardless. I still interpret this to mean that they're all on the same page as to what the future holds for Iovance, whatever that future may be - whether a buyout or to go it alone, a possible partnership or even an acquisition of another company. My guess is they all understand the plan as it was explained earlier on when they took large positions.
Just my opinion, of course.
badgerkid
2週前
Surf, nothing wrong with caution especially when preserving capital is important at a certain stage in life. I'm invested a bit more than I had originally planned, but I also have an eye on the what if...
I don't want to have to make my wife go back to work at her age, although she still can outwork most of the younger kids. Dang, maybe I should send her back, lots of companies need good employees. If we were in the Philly market, I hear Iovance is hiring.
Here's a little gem of a note: Hood River Capital Management LLC increased their holdings to 8.14 million shares, an increase of 5.41 million shares as of 9/30/24.
Best of luck to us.
badgerkid
2週前
Surf, actually, we've seen increases for Vanguard Group, State Street, Black Rock, and even Perceptive added a few more shares. Some new big positions and a couple big increases, but certainly a few that had sold down some shares probably right after the rise following Q2 earnings back in August. Some updates will appear in a day or two, but here's what's currently listed:
https://ir.iovance.com/stock-information/ownership-summary
As for how this stock gets beat around - it does seem well organized to a point. I'm guessing there's plenty of money being made selling the calls and puts and then wiping them all out just in time for options expiration. I've seen this game played on other stocks I've owned while the company was growing its business. But in the end, the good companies do win out and the share holders are rewarded. Options players have to take their chances on timing the moves properly - that's not such an easy task with a young commercial company.
Good luck to the longs.
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