DiscoverGold
5日前
Will Gold Mining Seasonality Win Out This Month?
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | March 4, 2025
• Gold mining stocks are entering a historically bullish month
• Gold prices may cool, but there's long term appeal amid rampant volatility
Certainty is at a premium right now. In the blink of an eye, stock market sentiment has shifted beneath investors’ feet, and contrarian traders must now be prepared to put what few certainties are out there under the microscope. Thanks to 11 record highs in 2025, the word is out that bullion could be a beacon of stability amid a volatile economic outlook. Global uncertainty is just one piece of the puzzle though; speculation also depends on how and when the inflation overhang is resolved. On Friday afternoon, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), came in-line with expectations, a good-but-not-great metric that likely keeps the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern with interest rate cuts.
A cautious Fed and persistent inflationary environment validates investors who have suddenly become risk-averse. With all eyes on gold right now, how should a contrarian investor assess the sector’s sprawling landscape? The answer is, in keeping with the times, uncertain.
The World Gold Council reports that global investment demand for bullion increased 25% in 2024. Last year was gold prices’ biggest one-year rise on record, and the safe-haven asset has added 8.2% in 2025, more than the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq combined. Gold prices have enjoyed a major boost in demand since 2022, thanks in large part to central banks across the world buying up the asset to diversify out of the U.S. dollar, in response to the U.S. and allies freezing Russia’s central bank assets after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China in particular has been loading up, with the People’s Bank of China boosting its gold reserves in January, the third-straight month of doing so after a brief pause last year.
Big banks are also loving gold right now. Goldman Sachs hiked its gold price target to $3,100, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America view the looming trade war as a tailwind for gold in 2025. How can an investor focused on equities or without means of getting their hands on gold take advantage? Gold is an independent asset without expenses, and mining companies have to incur costs and therefore tend to straggle behind gold prices. Therefore, the rap on gold mining stocks is that they severely lag behind actual gold prices and thus don’t offer a ton of lucrative appeal to investors as anything other than a hedge. However, consider the chart below from a Bloomberg report aptly titled “Gold Stocks Glitter as Worries Around Inflation, Tariffs Flare.” This year though, so far, gold miners are answering the call.
The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) exchange-traded fund (ETF) is 6.4% higher year-to-date and boasts a 53% year-over-year gain. March also tends to be a historically bullish month for the ETF; per Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, GDX averages a 3.4% return in March and a 70%-win rate, going back 10 years. This is the best average 10-year return of any ETF we track. And there’s even some contrarian potential to be mined, amid a heavy put bias. The fund’s 10-and 50-day buy-to-open call/put volume ratios of 1.56 and 1.42 rank in the 92nd and 99th percentile of their annual ranges, respectively.
GDX’s top holding and the U.S.’ largest gold miner, Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), is 13% higher year-to-date and up 41% year-over-year while also entering a period of bullish seasonality. White’s data shows Newmont stock with an average March return of 4.8% and a win rate of 80%, going back 10 years. This is a welcome sign for bulls, considering gold prices spent the last week retreating away from that vaunted $3,000 marker, heading for their first weekly loss of the year as the U.S. dollar strengthens. GDX is also heading toward a 5.7% weekly loss of its own.
That March seasonality is impressive considering how often rate-cut rhetoric has been the dominant discussion at Fed meetings lately, yet only one cut has been announced this month in the last decade. If the Fed does signal future rate cuts– there’s a 54.6% chance the Fed cuts rates in June, per CME’s Fed Watch Tool, it would help erase the overdue correction bullion is undergoing this week.
There are two headwinds battling seasonality and momentum. In President Trump’s first term, tariffs were more of a negotiation tool and less of an actual policy. The administration has shown greater resolve to actually implement them this time around; this is a big factor in gold’s rise the last six months. But if Trump once more reels in the trade war threats, it would be a massive reprieve for markets and dull the appeal of safe-haven assets. Combined with inflation potentially receding, this scenario would mean anyone taking a flier on gold now would have missed the train. Secondly, the U.S. dollar could also spoil gold’s rapid rise. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is lower in 2025 but heading for a weekly win. A firmed-up dollar as the result of tariff pressures could take a great deal of shine out of gold prices.
Since bullion is such a complicated web to untangle, perhaps its more helpful to drill down to individual mining stocks. It’s always worth flagging when a company reports relatively upbeat earnings, but the stock moves lower that day, for whatever reason. Newmont is fresh off a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat earlier last month, but the stock shed 5.7% in response and has only gained once since then. Sector peer Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE:AEM) reported a top-line beat of its own but suffered a post-earnings drawdown of 5.4%. Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) was the only major gold miner to walk out of the earnings confessional with its stock higher, melting up 6.4% on Feb. 12. NEM, AEM, and GOLD all boast similar technical profiles; course-correcting in recent weeks after torrid runs up the charts to start the year.
With inflows into gold still humming and seemingly stable corporate ledgers from industry leaders, this current pullback presents an intriguing entry point for gold mining stocks, heading into a historically bullish month.
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7日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28485 and is trading up about 7.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28970 and support forming below at 27671. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29740 to 28441. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25890 and 29394. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29740. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 28580 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27035 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28022. Additional support is to be found at 27156. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 268.7k, down 15.8k.
Gold bugs are clearly not in a mood to catch their breath. They have been rallying the metal since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. This week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce. This was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.
The yellow metal touched as high as $2,973 intraday Thursday – just past last week’s high of $2,969.
Concurrently, in five of the last eight sessions, gold has found sellers at $2,960s. Not surprisingly, the technicals are overbought – the daily particularly. Continued failure at this resistance will open the door toward a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 29532 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29734 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28899 and overhead resistance forming above at 29565. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 17th at 29734, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29734 to 28876. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29734 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29734. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29394 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
GDX’s Dozen-Year Breakout
By: Adam Hamilton | February 21, 2025
The major gold stocks are on the verge of a momentous technical event, a dozen-year secular breakout. With their leading index just single-digit percentages away, that could happen any day now. Gold stocks surging to decade-plus highs should generate much bullish financial-media coverage and trader interest. That will attract more capital inflows into this still-deeply-undervalued sector, accelerating upside momentum.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF is this sector’s pioneering and dominant benchmark. Launched way back in May 2006, its first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead. GDX’s $14.2b of net assets midweek dwarfs all competitors. The next-dozen-largest US gold-stock ETFs combined only have $8.2b, with over 6/10ths in GDXJ alone! That of course is GDX’s little-brother mid-tier gold-stock ETF.
As GDX is in a league of its own, traders overwhelmingly view gold stocks’ performance through its lens. While you wouldn’t know it with this sector still flying under most traders’ radars, gold stocks are having a great year. At best in this young 2025, GDX soared 25.4% year-to-date as of last Thursday! That amplified gold’s own surge by 2.2x, in the normal historical range of major-gold-stock leverage to gold of 2x to 3x.
Nothing attracts speculators and investors like strong upside momentum, which they just love piling in to chase. They become aware of it through some combination of persistent rallying, big gains, and major highs. That also attracts more and increasingly-bullish reporting by the financial media, quickly spreading awareness of surging stocks or sectors. So more traders deploy capital to ride that upside, amplifying it.
Last Thursday GDX surged to $42.51, and this Thursday as I pen this essay GDX is right back up there. That was its best close since late October, a 3.7-month high. At that point GDX had powered up 70.2% in the preceding 12.6 months to $44.09, which was a 4.2-year secular high. That in turn was merely a trivial 0.9% under GDX’s early-August-2020 peak of $44.48. Any close above heralded a momentous breakout.
To find higher GDX levels than that, we have to go all the way back to late January 2013. GDX regaining $44.50+ would’ve been an 11.8-year secular high then, and a 12.1-year one now! Midweek GDX was only 6.6% under that dozen-year breakout. That’s nothing for high-potential gold stocks, a couple days of good rallying. GDX soared 4.3% on November 18th, 4.2% on January 2nd, and 4.0% on January 30th.
I’ve long preferred to look for decisive breakouts, closes 1%+ above previous ones. That helps weed out unsuccessful challenges such as double-toppings. GDX’s psychologically-huge secular breakout would become decisive over $44.92, which we may as well round to $45. The major gold stocks forging over those GDX levels ought to really accelerate a popular sentiment shift back to bullish, attracting big buying.
There are four points I’d like to discuss about GDX’s imminent dozen-year breakout today. How bullish sentiment shifts fuel huge gold-stock gains, the perspective from GDX’s current technicals, why that long-awaited secular breakout failed in late October, and why gold stocks will almost certainly punch through this time around. There’s a great recent illustration of how fast traders’ perceptions of miners can change.
One of GDX’s smaller holdings is SSR Mining, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a more out-of-favor gold stock until recently. Just over a year ago, disaster struck SSRM’s second-largest gold mine in Turkey. A heap-leach pile of crushed ore on a hill catastrophically failed, burying nine miners who tragically died! I can’t remember a worse loss of life in a modern gold mine, and Turkey’s government swiftly shut it down.
That news hitting in mid-February 2024 was apocalyptic even before missing employees were reported. SSRM’s stock cratered 53.7% that day, plummeting as much as 61.3%! That very morning, SSR Mining had just issued full-year-2024 guidance, projecting midpoint gold production of 455k ounces. But with that crippled mine offline since, SSRM only managed to mine 275.0k ounces in 2024 for a huge 40% shortfall.
Not surprisingly SSR Mining was damaged-goods most of last year. Its stock did grind higher, but was only trading at $5.28 in early November compared to $9.72 the day before that tragedy. But SSRM has taken off like a rocket in 2025, soaring 52.3% YTD! In early December it bought another gold mine to bring back growth, then in mid-January a review of that failure implied little negligence on SSR Mining’s part.
That heap-leach pad was constructed to specifications provided by a third-party engineering firm, which were flawed. They overestimated the shear strength of the liner. While that won’t bring back the dead miners, it increases the odds Turkey’s regulators will allow that mine to reopen sooner rather than later. So SSRM has gone from zero to hero among gold-stock traders, their herd sentiment can shift to bullish fast.
SSR Mining’s meteoric recovery was partially enabled by this year’s big sector gains evident in GDX. The major gold stocks have quickly regained nearly 6/7ths of the losses in their recent sharp selloff. This strong upside momentum is already winning new converts, enticing more traders to deploy capital in this sector. Note the small difference between GDX’s current levels and that $45+ decisive dozen-year breakout.
As a super-volatile high-potential sector, it’s easy to get lost in all the day-to-day gold-stock noise. But realize the major gold stocks have been powering higher on balance in a nice bull-market uptrend since way back in late-September 2022! GDX has gradually carved both higher lows and higher highs in that secular span, getting ever-closer to that key dozen-year breakout. It is inevitable if this uptrend persists.
And there’s certainly no reason it shouldn’t with gold’s own extraordinary monster upleg continuing to advance to more nominal records. Gold stocks are highly levered to gold prices, as they overwhelmingly drive miners’ profits. Since mining costs are largely fixed before construction when mines are planned, they only tend to climb gradually. That enables higher gold prices to fuel much-higher earnings for miners.
This is easy to illustrate with hard data. For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results of the 25 largest GDX gold miners. The latest reported numbers are Q3’24’s, which I discussed in a popular mid-November essay. Q4’24’s earnings season is just getting underway this week, but won’t be finished for another month or so. I can’t wait to dig into those new results...
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold & Gold Stocks Due for a Pause
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | February 17, 2025
Last week, we wrote about the Near Perfect Setup in gold stocks but that a correction or pause was likely before a sustainable breakout.
Gold closed the week at $2900 after trading as high as $2968. It has measured upside targets of $3000 and $3050.
It is overbought, which is a long-term positive, but can be a short-term negative.
Gold is a little extended from the average of the four best cyclical moves. It could move sideways for over four months and still maintain the average line.
The average reveals that the two points of acceleration are in July 2025 and January 2026.
The gold stocks have rallied up to important, multi-year resistance.
That includes seniors and large caps (GDX, XAU), mid-tiers (GDXJ), and juniors (GOEX).
A pause or correction is a reasonable outcome and does not do anything to change the larger technical setup, which is very bullish.
Short-term breadth indicators for GDX and the HUI reached extreme overbought readings while medium to intermediate term breadth indicators remain at healthy levels.
We plot GDX below and a number of breadth indicators.
On Thursday, 94% of HUI stocks (similar to GDX, excluding royalty companies) closed above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while 73% closed above the 200-day moving average.
The other breadth indicators (new 52-week Highs, Golden Cross, and Bullish Percentage Index) have more room to move before indicating the threat of a significant correction.
On Thursday, 100% of the Top 33 stocks in GDXJ closed above the 20-day moving average, while 95% closed above the 50-day moving average. That is a short-term extreme.
The 20-day exponential moving average of new 52-week highs and the percentage of those Top 33 stocks above the 200-day moving average are not at extreme levels.
The big picture remains very bullish for precious metals.
Gold is following a bullish path, and gold stocks have the potential for a significant breakout. While breadth and sentiment are growing more bullish, they are not yet at the extreme levels that would cause a significant correction.
However, the risk of a pause or a short-term correction is rising.
Gold is overbought, and gold stocks are testing multi-year resistance. As of Thursday, short-term breadth indicators were extremely overbought.
Whether a correction materializes or sector momentum continues, it is best to focus on individual companies and identify the best values. It’s another way to sidestep corrections.
We are already positioned in the leading companies but are actively uncovering more companies that could lead the next move higher.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 16, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 11, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 284.5k, down 18k.
Gold’s upward momentum continued this week, but not before showing signs of fatigue. Up 0.5 percent this week to $2,901/ounce, it has rallied for seven consecutive weeks. The metal ticked $2,608 on December 30.
The yellow metal essentially went parabolic for a month and a half. This likely is coming to an end – not the move itself but the parabolic side to it. This Tuesday – a spinning top session – gold rallied as high as $2,969, but the bulls failed to keep the gains. As a result, a shooting star developed on the weekly. Weakness lies ahead.
Gold remains overbought on several timeframes. Ahead lies a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
3週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 15, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 28637. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 2.50%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. At the moment, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 28045 settling at 29454. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 29045 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 28637. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 29045
Previous... 28045
Tomorrow... 28637
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 29685. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28761 and overhead resistance forming above at 29070. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 10th at 29685, which was up 13 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29685 to 28799. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29685 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25596 and 29060. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29685. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 29346 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26970 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
4週前
2 Gold Mining Stocks to Watch Amid Higher Prices
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | February 12, 2025
• Gold prices are fresh off a record-setting run
• Barrick Gold stock is surging after earnings today
Fears surrounding higher interest rates reemerged after today's hotter-than-expected inflation data for January. While the reading is also impacting gold prices, the precious metal is fresh off a record-setting run in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, which boosted demand for the safe-haven commodity as investors monitor a potential trade war. Below, let's check in with two gold mining giants amid corporate earnings.
GOLD Eyes Best Day Since August
Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) stock is up 6.1% to trade at $18.11 at last glance -- its highest level since November -- after the company beat fourth-quarter profit estimates and unveiled a $1 billion share buyback program. On track for its best day since August, GOLD sports a 28.7% year-over-year lead, and earlier conquered its 100-day moving average.
Options volume is running at triple the intraday average volume today, with 69,000 calls and 18,000 puts exchanged so far today. The most popular contract by far is the March 80 call.
NEM Gears Up for Earnings
Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) will announce fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday, Feb. 20. The security was last seen up 1.9% to trade at $46.37, and sports a 44.1% year-over-year lead, with 24% added just this year. The shares started the week with a pop to their highest level since late October, and are consolidating above their own 100-day trendline.
Newmont stock has a mixed history of post-earnings reactions, finishing four of its last eight next-day sessions higher, and four lower. This includes a 14.7% drop after its most recent earnings report. The security averaged a move of 6.2% over the past two years, regardless of direction, and this time the options pits are pricing in a larger swing of 8.1%.
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4週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 8, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 4, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 302.5k, up 3.1k.
Gold tried to unwind the overbought condition it was in by beginning with Monday’s intraday weakness ticking $2,802, and that was bought. This was a successful test of the prior highs of $2,802 posted on October 30 and $2,803 on January 29. By Friday, the yellow metal ticked $2,911 intraday – a fresh high – to end the session at $2,888/ounce. For the week, it jumped 1.9 percent. This was a sixth consecutive weekly gain.
Momentum is strong, although the daily remains extended. Should weakness develop, gold bugs will be tested if they can defend $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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4週前
NY Gold Futures - Pressing Higher »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 8, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28876 and is trading up about 9.33% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29106 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 28771.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 3rd at 29106, which was up 12 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29106 to 28022. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29106 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29106. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 28456 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4週前
Gold-Stock Valuation Anomaly
By: Adam Hamilton | February 7, 2025
The gold miners’ stock prices have largely decoupled from their metal, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. This fundamental disconnect has spawned a shocking valuation anomaly, with gold stocks far too low relative to gold. But this aberration won’t last, as markets abhor extreme deviations from precedent. Mean reversions and proportional overshoots soon follow, so gold stocks will soar to reflect their record earnings.
Across stock markets throughout history, stock prices ultimately gravitate towards reasonable multiples of their underlying corporate profits. Those valuations vary with sectors, and herd sentiment can force them away from averages for some time. But eventually they always normalize, with mean reversions being an immutable market force. Visualize sector valuations like sine waves oscillating around long-term averages.
From a high-level valuation perspective, gold mining is a simple business. Miners excavate, haul, and crush gold-bearing ores, process them to recover the gold, then sell it usually at prevailing market prices. Profits are the difference between those and the costs of bringing that gold to market. While the metal can surge fast as this past year’s monster upleg proved again, mining costs lag way behind climbing slowly.
That’s because they are largely fixed when mines are being engineered, well before construction. The mills processing ores have limited throughput capacities, costing about the same to run quarter after quarter. All-in sustaining costs are gold miners’ primary way of measuring overall operating expenses. Interestingly mines’ average AISCs over their entire lives are forecast ahead of those mine-builds starting.
Most gold miners report full financial results quarterly, including their AISCs and profits. Averaging the former from the world’s leading gold miners then subtracting that from quarterly-average gold prices is an excellent proxy for sector unit earnings. For the past 34 quarters I’ve been doing that with the top-25 gold miners in the dominant GDX gold-stock ETF. They haven’t reported Q4’24 yet, so Q3’24 is the latest data.
That quarter the GDX-top-25 gold miners averaged all-in sustaining costs of $1,431 per ounce. With gold averaging $2,477 on close, that made for near-record sector unit profits of $1,046. Those soared 74.0% year-over-year from Q3’23’s levels, amplifying the big 28.6% average-gold-price gains in that same span by 2.6x! Over the last four reported quarters, that profits leverage to gold has run 3.0x, 3.7x, 4.6x, and 2.6x.
Gold-stock prices have long mirrored this inherent leveraged relationship between gold prices and gold-mining earnings. The major gold stocks of GDX normally see their stock prices amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. That not only reflects underlying profits growth, but compensates investors for gold stocks’ big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks heaped on top of gold price trends.
Just breaking out again to new record highs, gold’s monster upleg has grown to huge 57.3% gains over 16.1 months! This is an extraordinarily-large and -long upleg. Based on that historical 2x-to-3x leverage of GDX to gold, it should’ve soared 115% to 172% in that span. In the quarters since this gold upleg was born in early October 2023, GDX-top-25 implied unit profits have skyrocketed 42%, 35%, 84%, and 74% YoY!
Yet dumbfoundingly, GDX was merely up 58.4% midweek for no upside leverage at all. If gold stocks can’t outperform their metal, they’re not worth owning since they are much riskier. Even at best within this monster gold upleg in late October, GDX was only up 70.2% to gold’s 51.0% then making for 1.4x leverage. Gold stocks have lagged way behind their metal, spawning a shocking valuation anomaly still in force.
This sector-valuation-proxy chart illustrates that gaping disconnect. It looks at GDX’s prices divided by the leading-and-dominant GLD gold ETF’s. Gold-stock-to-gold ratios distill down valuation trends over time, making them very useful for analyses. Here the blue GDX/GLD-ratio line is superimposed over the raw GDX in red. Juxtaposing these in recent years reveals the extreme valuation anomaly over this past year.
For well over a decade now, I’ve periodically updated this GGR chart and analyzed it in essays. Across the great majority of that span, GGR multiples closely tracked the underlying GDX. The blue and red lines mostly meandered tightly together like in 2022 and 2023. But late that year as gold’s current upleg began marching, a fundamental disconnect started opening. It gaped to crazy-anomalous proportions since!
Arguably the last quasi-normal market years were 2019 to 2021, where the GGR averaged 0.199x which may as well be rounded to 0.20x. 2022 was crazy, witnessing the Fed’s most-violent hiking cycle in its entire century-plus history. It raised its federal-funds rate an extreme 350 basis points in just 6.0 months! That fueled an epic 16.7% moonshot in the benchmark US Dollar Index to an extreme 20.4-year secular high!
That parabolic dollar slammed gold a proportional 20.9% lower on heavy gold-futures selling. That in turn crushed gold stocks to extreme stock-panic-level lows in late September. While both gold and the miners rebounded strongly from that anomaly, those wild markets were far from normal. At worst the GGR fell to 0.145x in its dark heart. Nothing like that had been seen since March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic.
You probably remember fear was off the charts during that event. No one yet knew how lethal COVID-19 would prove, and the lockdowns risked spawning a full-blown depression. Astoundingly then in just over a month, the flagship US S&P 500 stock index plummeted 33.9%! Gold stocks get sucked into extreme selloffs, and at worst the GGR plunged to 0.133x then which was a 4.1-year low. Keep that nadir in mind...
* * *
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1月前
Gold Ratios Progressing, Gold Miners to Benefit
By: Gary Tanashian | February 5, 2025
• Gold Ratios are indicating our projected countercycle is slowly coming to be and that is to the benefit of the gold mining industry.
Gold ratios such as those to Oil/Energy and Copper/Industrial metals are trending up, and that is not good for the formerly inflated economy (as manufactured in Q1, 2020 under the Fed’s monetary panic regime and Trump’s fiscal regime). *
But it is good for one unique, counter-cyclical industry, fundamentally.
First, a Look at Yield Curves
There has been a long and very slow gyration from an inflated cyclical to a counter-cyclical environment, which is still not obviously in view yet. But the “bust” side of the boom/bust continuum awaits as the 10yr-3mo Yield Curve has long-since joined the 10yr-2yr in steepening.
A majority of hopeful people and the media tending them continue to tout the wrong-headed idea that since the curves de-inverted, we have avoided a recession. Why, on December 18th Fed chief Powell actually said so after the FOMC meeting previous to this week’s, calling into question his competence (or his forthrightness).
The article linked above strongly begs to differ with our confident Fed chief and backs it up with facts.
* Relax partisans, the inflation problem was cooked up under Trump. Fact. Biden did nothing to help it and in fact, extended it.
Gold Ratios and the Counter-Cycle
On to gold ratios and their signals, using the related ETFs. Since the post-2020 correction (which logically came amid ramping macro inflation signals) gold is trending up vs. commodities. That is disinflationary signaling. See chart below.
In still going sideways vs. US headline stock indexes, the picture is not quite complete (it should be noted, however, that gold is firmly trending up in relation to the balance of global stocks, ex-US). Give it time. I expect Gold/SPX to break its 8-year bottoming/base before long…
…and unify the counter-cyclical macro view.
Here is a daily chart view of disinflationary macro signaling as gold rises vs. commodities. In other words, as its “real” price, as measured in those commodities, gently rises. For good measure, I have added the miners of gold (GDX) vs. the producers of Energy (XLE) and copper (COPX). Those trends are also turning up.
Why gold mining? Why should long-suffering gold bugs actually believe that the gold mining industry could once again provide the positive leverage to gold that it has mostly failed to exhibit since 2004? Because for the most part, the 2004-2022 era was mainly antagonistic to the miners, fundamentally.
As I’ve been saying since the Continuum (most recently viewed here) busted the limiters back in 2022, we are “changing the macro”. That is the long-term play and legions of robotic Cramer fans, among many others in the public, will have none of it (until much later when it is time for them to FOMO, MOMO and buy our over-valued shares). It’s a slow process, but being on the right side of it will be well worth in that far off time when Cramer’s herd be lecturing us about the virtues of gold and a bearish stock market view.
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1月前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 1, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 28, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 299.4k, down 1.4k.
One more week and one more new high for the yellow metal!
Friday, gold peaked at $2,863 intraday before weakening to close the session at $2,835/ounce, up two percent for the week.
Gold has now rallied for five consecutive weeks. Last week, with Friday’s intraday high of $2,795, gold bugs seriously went after $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). A breakout seemed imminent, and this has happened.
The daily is extended. Immediate support lies just north of $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.
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DiscoverGold
1月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 1, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 28350 and is trading up about 7.34% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27948.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 27th at 28629, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28629 to 27320. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28629 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25218 and 28632. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28629. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27678 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1月前
An Enticing Gold Mining Stock with a Strong SCTR Score
By: StockCharts | January 31, 2025
• Gold stocks have been rising, which has helped gold mining stocks.
• This gold mining stock is close to its all-time high.
• In this article, we will present an analysis of the monthly and daily charts.
Gold stocks have risen, even after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. So it wasn't surprising to find a few gold mining stocks filtered in my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan. (This scan was created using StockCharts' Advanced Scan Workbench and can be found at the end of the article for reference.)
I selected Alamos Gold, Inc. (AGI), a gold mining stock in the materials sector for further analysis. Gold mining stocks have been rising, as have gold prices, and, with AGI trading at around $21, the stock is worth considering as an addition to a portfolio.
A Deep Dive Into Alamos Gold
AGI has had an interesting run since late 2022, after it broke out of a shallow downward-sloping sideways range. The stock rode higher, moved sideways for almost a year, and then continued its upward trend. It pulled back again from late October 2024 to January 2025; it is now trading above its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and challenging its all-time highs.
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD MINING STOCK ALAMOS. The stock has been trending higher since early 2024 and is now battling with its all-time highs.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
When a stock reaches its all-time high, that could be an incentive to go even higher. But there needs to be momentum. There are a handful of momentum indicators you could use, such as the relative strength index (RSI), moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), and average directional index (ADX).
Let's look at the daily chart of AGI to identify potential entry points.
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF ALAMOS GOLD. The SCTR score is 82.50, the price is very close to its 52-week high (in this case, an all-time high), and RSI is almost 70. The stock is also trading well above its 15-day EMA.
Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.
The Distance to 52-Week Highs indicator in the lower panel shows AGI is close to its 52-week high. The SCTR score is above 80, volume is picking up, the stock is trading above its 15-day EMA, and the RSI has been trending higher, just shy of 70. All indicators point to AGI retaining its bullish move.
AGI failed to close at a new all-time high on Thursday. It's worth monitoring the stock's momentum to see if it can close at a new high and push through it. If not, consider catching it on a pullback and trying to ride the wave up. It could be a golden opportunity.
However, as we know too well, things can change. If the dynamics of AGI start shifting -- i.e. the SCTR score falls, the stock price moves closer to its 15-day EMA, or the RSI reverses and approaches the 50 line -- then it may be time to exit the stock.
As always, if any of the indicators start reversing, which would suggest that the stock's strength is declining, you may be better off moving on to find more promising investments.
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1月前
Agnico Eagle (AEM) Increases Production, Share Value
By: Lucas Downey | January 29, 2025
• Shares of Canadian mining company Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) shine.
Based in Toronto, AEM’s business is the exploration, development, and production of precious metals. It has mines in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, with exploration and development activities focused on Canada, Australia, Europe, Latin America, and the U.S. Gold is a focus for the company, and its facilities are in some of the best gold producing areas in the world. AEM also increased its production capacity through a recent acquisition, allowing it to expand a large mining project in Canada.
For the third quarter of fiscal 2024, AEM increased its revenue to $2.2 billion, a jump of 31% from a year earlier. It delivered record per-share earnings of $1.14, while also having a record $620 million on hand, a nearly sevenfold increase from the prior year. Gold production was 863,000 ounces. Lastly, the company greatly decreased its debt, from $1.5 billion at the start of the year to $490 million.
It’s no wonder AEM shares are up more than 82% in a year – and they could rise more. MAPsignals data shows how Big Money investors are betting heavily on the forward picture of the stock.
Big Money Digs Agnico Eagle Shares
Institutional volumes reveal plenty. Recently, AEM has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.
Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in AEM shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Plenty of materials names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Agnico Eagle.
Agnico Eagle Fundamental Analysis
Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, AEM has had strong sales and earnings growth:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+29.1%)
• 3-year earnings growth rate (+44.4%)
Source: FactSet
Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +26.3%.
Now it makes sense why the stock has been powering to new heights. AEM has a track record of strong financial performance.
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.
Agnico Eagle has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report multiple times in the last year. The blue bars below show when AEM was a top pick…generating gains along the way:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.
This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.
Agnico Eagle Price Prediction
The AEM rally isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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DiscoverGold
1月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 25, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27789 and is trading up about 5.22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27948 while it is still trading above last month's high of 27613.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. Nonetheless, the market has rebound quite strong and is trading within 1% of the previous high. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 27620.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 20th at 27948, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27948 to 27156. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to strengthen since the previous low at 25415 made 10 weeks . The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 20th reaching 27948 has exceeded the previous high of 27613 made back during the week of December 9th.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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1月前
Gold Miners’ Best Quarter Ever
By: Adam Hamilton | January 24, 2025
The gold miners will soon report their best quarter ever, smashing all records! Profits will skyrocket on the highest gold prices ever witnessed combined with stable or lower mining costs. Yet gold stocks are still trading as if both their earnings and gold were way lower, an extreme valuation anomaly. Upcoming stellar Q4 and 2024 results should help reverse that, growing investors’ interest in this high-flying sector.
Quarterly earnings seasons are an essential fundamental reality check on stock prices. These results dispel the sentimental fogs usually enshrouding stocks, revealing how companies are actually faring. As most operate on calendar years, Q4 results are included in way-more-comprehensive annual reports. While the extra data and analyses are welcome, those take longer to prepare stretching out reporting deadlines.
After normal quarters not ending reporting years, US-listed and Canadian-listed stocks are required to file full results within 40 and 45 calendar days. But those are extended to 60 and a whopping 90 following quarters ending reporting years! So most gold miners’ Q4 operational and financial results are released slower and later than earlier quarters’. That’s unfortunate, affecting the timeliness and utility of this data.
For the past 34 quarters in a row, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from the 25 largest component stocks in the leading benchmark GDX gold-stock ETF. These are detailed in quarterly essays right after earnings seasons. Those are published in the second halves of the second months after quarter-ends for Q1s, Q2s, and Q3s, but the middle of the third months for Q4s ending years.
Mostly thanks to Q4’24’s stupendous record gold prices, the gold miners’ latest results are going to prove epic. But sadly we have to wait until mid-March or so to collate and study them all. Yet after spending the better part of a decade analyzing every quarterly earnings season, how gold miners are actually doing is predictable. While much data feeds my massive GDX-top-25-results spreadsheet, it can be distilled down.
The best proxy I’ve found for how gold miners are faring is their implied sector unit profits. That construct simply takes the quarterly-average gold prices then subtracts the GDX top 25’s quarterly-average all-in sustaining costs. That results in quarterly-average earnings per ounce, which is much cleaner over time than either bottom-line profits or earnings per share. Those are often distorted due to accounting rules.
If companies believe any carrying values of assets on their books are overstated, they are required to immediately write those down and flush the resulting non-cash losses through their income statements. With 25 gold miners, nearly every quarter sees a handful record such impairment charges on deposits or mines. Their values are typically diminished by either lower gold prices or operational or geopolitical challenges.
Because of all these unusual non-recurring items distorting some varying subset of gold miners’ income statements, actual earnings and earnings per share aren’t comparable without plenty of adjustments. I do and discuss those in my quarterly-results essays. But by excluding such items which can also be big non-cash gains, implied sector unit profits are superior for comparisons. And Q4’s are going to prove epic!
Gold averaged $2,661 on close in Q4’24, soaring 34.7% year-over-year! The former is the highest gold has ever achieved, while the latter is the biggest gain in the last 34 quarters I’ve been advancing this research thread. In the previous five quarters ending Q3, gold averaged $1,926, $1,976, $2,072, $2,337, and $2,477 which surged 11.6%, 14.2%, 9.5%, 18.2%, and 28.6% YoY. Last quarter utterly trounced all that!
While Q4’s average gold price is set in stone, estimating the GDX-top-25 gold miners’ all-in sustaining costs is more involved. During those same previous five quarters, those averaged $1,325, $1,317, $1,277, $1,239, and $1,431 per ounce. Averaging those in turn results in $1,317. In their latest-reported results for Q3’24, the majority of the GDX-top-25 gold miners forecast Q4 would see their lowest AISCs of 2024.
That was mainly due to higher production with newer gold mines and expansions ramping up. AISCs are highly inversely correlated with outputs, due to the big fixed costs of gold mining. Mills processing gold-bearing ores cost about the same to operate every quarter. So more overall throughput or higher-grade ores yield more ounces to spread those expenses across, lowering unit costs. That should happen in Q4.
The first three quarters of 2024 saw GDX-top-25 AISCs averaging $1,315 per ounce. So given these major gold miners’ own Q4 guidances, it would be reasonable to expect those to drift closer to $1,300. But whenever I do estimates, I always try to be conservative with less-favorable assumptions. So for our purposes today, let’s assume these elite gold miners average considerably-worse $1,350 AISCs in Q4.
Last quarter’s record $2,661 average gold prices less $1,350 projected AISCs yields phenomenal record sector profits of $1,311 per ounce! That would make for enormous 98.8%-YoY growth from Q4’23 levels. You read that right, the major gold miners’ earnings almost certainly doubled last quarter! Yet GDX’s average share price across these same quarters merely rose 31.1%, lagging far behind soaring profits.
And massive earnings growth is nothing new for the gold miners. The previous five quarters ending in Q3 saw GDX-top-25 implied sector unit profits running $601, $659, $795, $1,099, and $1,046 per ounce. That $1,099 in Q2’24 was the previous record. These same five quarters achieved amazing year-over-year growth of 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0%! Q4’24 will be the sixth consecutive quarter of this.
Average all these, and the major gold miners have been achieving crazy 70%-YoY profits growth for the last year-and-a-half! No other sector in all the stock markets is remotely close. Q2’23 was gold stocks’ last normal quarter before this extraordinary run. Assuming my Q4’24 assumptions are in the ballpark, GDX-top-25 implied sector unit profits have soared 119% in that span! Stock prices should’ve followed.
Yet the quarterly-average GDX levels between those two quarters merely climbed 17.7%, just 1/7th of what earnings growth supported! This extreme valuation anomaly can’t and won’t last. Eventually all stock prices mean revert to some reasonable multiple of underlying corporate earnings. Odds are no other stock-market sector is more undervalued than gold stocks today, which makes them screaming buys.
The upcoming stellar Q4 gold miners’ results should help galvanize a bullish sentiment shift among all-important institutional investors. Unlike the retail guys who mostly chase momentum, the fund guys have to do their research and understand underlying fundamentals. When gold miners’ best quarter ever prods the professionals to dig deeper, the case for allocating capital into gold stocks will prove super-compelling.
With the gold miners so incongruously out of favor today, it won’t take much institutional buying to catapult them way higher. The resulting upside momentum will fuel mounting bullishness, attracting in more funds and retail investors. Interestingly GDX isn’t far from a major secular technical breakout, which should really accelerate that overdue sentiment shift. This chart illuminates GDX over the past several years or so.
Despite mostly still being ignored, the major gold stocks just carved a solid upleg. From early October 2023 to late October 2024, GDX powered 70.2% higher in 12.6 months! Yet while those would’ve been great gains for most sectors, they weren’t for high-flying gold stocks. The major gold miners of GDX usually amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. In nearly that same span, gold skyrocketed up 53.1%!
So by gold stocks’ own modern standards, GDX should’ve soared 106% to 159% leveraging gold’s huge upleg. Just 70% made for very-poor 1.3x upside leverage to their metal. That’s way too low to justify gold miners’ big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks heaped on top of gold price trends. Somewhere under 2x investors are better off reallocating any capital in the miners into gold itself.
Interestingly this past year’s gold upleg was the first achieving 40%+ monster status since mid-2020. Emerging from the pandemic-lockdown stock panic, gold soared 40.0% in 4.6 months back then. This same GDX comprised of mostly the same major gold miners at similar weightings rocketed up 134.1% in that span! That amplified gold a great 3.4x, better than normal. There’s no reason that can’t happen again...
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1月前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 25, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 21, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 300.8k, up 21.4k.
Gold bugs are hammering on $2,802, which was the intraday high posted on October 30 (last year). This Friday, the metal rallied as high as $2,795, subsequently closing at $2,779/ounce, up 1.7 percent for the week. This was the fourth up week in a row.
When gold reached its peak last October, it came in a gravestone doji week. This was then followed by two weeks of downward pressure during which the metal dropped to $2,542 by November 14. This time around, gold is hanging on to its gains – most of it anyway. This bodes well for a breakout in due course.
For now, if the bulls lose $2,750s, there is trendline support from last November’s low at $2,650. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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1月前
Investors are Pouring Into Gold Miners
By: Karl Montevirgen | January 24, 2025
• There's a renewed interest in gold mining stocks.
• Does gold outperforming miners signal an increase in mining activity and profitability?
• Miners are at a critical turning point, and the key levels discussed can help you assess whether the trend will turn bullish or bearish.
Gold mining stocks have been climbing since the end of December, a trend that usually goes unnoticed unless gold — often dismissed as an "old relic" — undergoes one of its periodic shifts into a timely and relevant asset.
Recently, gold has been in the public spotlight, shedding its "relic" skin to reveal itself, once again, as a safe haven asset. If you haven't been following the yellow metal, here's what you might have missed:
• Gold prices have been rising, making mining a profitable venture.
• Central banks worldwide have ramped up gold purchases, driving prices higher.
• Several mining mergers have taken place, improving efficiency.
• Safe-haven demand, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, has fueled gold investment.
• Gold mining can also mean silver extraction (along with other metals), which is in short supply.
A glance at the5-day MarketCarpets' Bullish Percent Index (BPI) view on Thursday shows that next to healthcare, gold miners have the second largest lead over other indices and sectors.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPERTS BPI CHART. Gold miners have the second-highest BPI reading among other sectors and indices.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
This 5-day BPI reading tells you that over 41% of gold mining stocks exhibit Point & Figure buy signals. This suggests a surge in buying activity relative to the other sectors on the list.
As StockCharts' PerfCharts below show, rising gold and silver prices have been fueling gold mining activity and investment (note that this isn't always the case, as various operational factors can impact mining companies independently of the metal prices they produce). We'll use the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as our industry proxy.
FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF GDX,GLD, AND SLV. The metals are leading miners and driving mining activity and investment.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Taking a look at GDX's weekly chart, you can see the relative performance between gold mining stocks and the yellow metal.
FIGURE 3. WEEKLY 5-YEAR CHART OF GOLD MINERS. Note how gold prices are now leading the collective performance of the gold mining industry.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
For years, gold mining stocks led the price of gold (represented by the blue line), but, over the past year, gold has begun outperforming miners. This suggests a few possibilities:
• Investors might have been concerned about rising operational costs and weaker profit margins in the mining sector, favoring gold over the companies that produce it.
• Now, the renewed interest in mining stocks suggests that investors might be anticipating improved profitability in miners as gold prices continue to rise.
But is investing in miners a wise move or a trap? As the daily chart below shows, it can be either. It all depends on how the index reacts at critical technical levels.
FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF GDX. Keep a close eye on resistance at $38 and support at $33.
Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
GDX has pulled back from its high of $43.71. Is this a pullback or the beginning of a more significant trend reversal Whether the rally continues or reverses into a downtrend depends on whether the price breaks above resistance at $38 or falls below support at $33.
This notion rests on the simple principle that an uptrend consists of consecutive higher highs and lows and that a downtrend consists of consecutive lower lows and highs. The ZigZag line effectively highlights this trend movement, especially the current swing high ($38) and low ($30).
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2月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 18, 2025
This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened lower and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 27592. Therefore, this closed lower and it was holding still for the close.
Up to now, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 27890.
Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 26749. Initial support lies at 27087. This market has exceeded intraday 1 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 27410 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Up to now, the projected extreme resistance stands at 27709 and 28173.
During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 26689 settling at 27509. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 27168 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 27281. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 27292 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 26669 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal that a sharp decline is possible.
Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 27168
Previous... 26689
Tomorrow... 27281
This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 27613. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27350 and overhead resistance forming above at 27613. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 6.257%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2月前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | January 18, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 14, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 279.4k, up 24.5k.
Gold has rallied the last three weeks, with this week adding 1.2 percent to $2,749/ounce. This brings the metal to an important juncture, as $2,750s has seen a genuine bull-bear duel the past three months. Last October, gold did proceed to rally past this level and tag $2,802 – a record – on the 30th, but only to then soon lose momentum. By November 14, gold was down to $2,542, before rallying. A rising trendline from that low extends to $2,640s, which is the line in the sand should gold bugs fail to reclaim $2,750s and the yellow metal comes under pressure. After this, other support levels include $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
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2月前
Options Traders React to Barrick Gold's Mali Setback
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 15, 2025
• Barrick Gold suspended operation in Mali, after the government seized 3 metric tons of gold
• Options traders are targeting GOLD at 4 times the intraday average volume
Options traders are zeroing in on Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) stock, as the company faces turbulence following the suspension of operations in Mali. The decision comes after the Malian government seized approximately 3 metric tons of gold, valued at $245 million, from the company’s Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex. This action, tied to a dispute over revenue shares owed to the state, underscores escalating military pressure on foreign mining companies as Mali asserts greater control over its mineral resources.
Shares of Barrick Gold were last seen 0.3% higher at $15.75, but remain down 21.1% over the past three months. GOLD faces resistance at the $16 level and its 30-day moving average, though the $15 mark has recently provided support to limit further losses.
Unusual options activity is accompanying the news, with 56,000 calls and 50,000 puts exchanged so far today -- four times the average intraday volume. The most active contracts are the January 14.5 call and 14.5 put, while new positions are opening at the weekly 1/31 16-strike call and put.
While puts and calls are evenly matched today, bearish bets have dominated over the past 10 weeks. According to the security's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.57 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), this figure sits in the 99th percentile of its annual range. In other words, although calls outpace puts overall, traders have been picking up puts at an unusually high rate recently.
For investors looking to join in on the action, Barrick Gold stock has consistently rewarded premium buyers. This is reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 86, indicating the stock has tended to deliver larger-than-expected moves relative to the options market’s low volatility expectations.
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2月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 11, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27150 and is trading up about 2.80% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26810.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 5.325%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26246.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 4, 2025
Next Monday is Martin Luther King, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 26547 and is trading up about 0.51% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Currently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during November 2024. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26546 and overhead resistance forming above at 26758. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 3.246%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26497. Additional support is to be found at 26053. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in October 2024 at 28018. After a twelve month rally from the previous low of 26188, it made last high in October. Since this last high, the market has corrected for twelve months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in January, this market has held above last month's low of 25967 reaching 26361.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2月前
Gold Stocks’ Revaluation Year
By: Adam Hamilton | January 3, 2025
The gold miners’ stocks are limping into 2025 seriously oversold, deeply undervalued, and really out of favor. While that doesn’t sound very bullish, this is a fantastic contrarian setup for a big revaluation year. This sector’s stock-price levels are far too low to reflect gold miners’ massive record earnings with these high prevailing gold prices. Gold-stock prices need to normalize with underlying profits, which is likely in 2025.
Sometimes price levels experience major paradigm shifts in condensed periods of time. Unfortunately we’re all experiencing this on the inflation front. General prices for pretty much everything are stabilizing at much-higher levels than they were before 2020’s pandemic-lockdown chaos. This is a revaluation, as prices almost certainly won’t return to 2019 levels. The Fed’s extreme pandemic easing is the main reason.
In just over a month into March 2020, the flagship S&P 500 stock index collapsed 33.9% in the pandemic-lockdown panic! Top Fed officials feared a depression, so they redlined their monetary printing presses. Over the next 25.5 months, the Fed ballooned its balance sheet a radically-unprecedented 115.6% or $4,807b! That’s effectively the monetary base underlying the US dollar supply, which more than doubled.
While the Fed has been gradually shrinking that since, as of the latest data last week its balance sheet is still 65.6% or $2,727b higher than February-2020 levels! With vastly-more money remaining to bid up the prices of goods and services, they surged proportionally and held. The same is true of gold. It averaged $1,394 in 2019 before central bankers around the world panicked, and has revalued much higher since then.
But that process sure hasn’t been linear. Gold did soar dramatically in 2020 as money flooded into the system, averaging $1,773 for a 27.2% surge. But in 2021 and 2022 gold barely moved, averaging just $1,798 and $1,801. 2023 was better with a 7.9% gain to $1,943, but gold still wasn’t reflecting the huge global inflation in fiat-currency supplies. After lagging for a few years, gold finally revalued again in 2024.
Last year gold averaged $2,391, 23.0% better than prior-year levels. And compared to 2019’s average, that was 71.5% higher in line with money-supply growth per the Fed’s balance sheet! Before 2024, gold had never closed above $2,077. So a year ago this week, sentiment was fairly-bearish. Then I wrote a contrarian essay predicting gold’s 2024 breakout upleg. Prevailing gold prices revalued to much-higher levels.
That drove a major paradigm shift in how traders perceive gold prices. A year ago even $2,500 seemed impossibly high, yet today that feels low. And gold’s fantastic 27.2% gains in 2024 accrued despite bearish headwinds. During that remarkable year, gold powered higher through bouts of extreme overboughtness, exceedingly-overextended spec gold-futures positioning, and American stock investors ignoring it!
With the metal that overwhelmingly drives their profits normalizing in new much-higher-price territory, gold-stock prices will inevitably follow. 2025 will likely prove a major-paradigm-shift revaluation year for the gold miners. Their stock prices are wildly too low for their massive record earnings, an anomaly that markets never allow to persist for long. Examples of gold stocks’ enormous disconnect with gold are legion.
As gold soared 27.2% last year, the leading GDX major-gold-stock ETF clocked in at merely 9.4% gains! That made for terrible 0.3x leverage to gold, compared to GDX’s historical range running between 2x to 3x. Because gold stocks heap big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks on top of gold prices, they have always way outperformed their underlying metal to compensate traders for those added risks.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold soared 53.1% higher in a monster upleg! I define those as 40%+ gains without any upleg-slaying 10%+ corrections. That was gold’s first monster-level one since mid-2020, when gold blasted up 40.0% out of that pandemic-lockdown stock panic. During that span, GDX skyrocketed 134.1% which made for outstanding 3.4x upside leverage! That’s more typical historically.
Yet at best during gold’s 2024 monster upleg, GDX only rallied 70.2%. That only amplified gold’s upside a pathetic 1.3x, seriously lagging behind precedent. During a 53% gold upleg, the major gold stocks of GDX should’ve soared 106% to 159%! From 2020 to 2024, annual average gold prices surged 34.9% as the profligate Fed ballooned the US-dollar supply. Yet average GDX prices in those years only edged up 0.4%.
Last year major gold stocks were trading at 2020 levels, when gold again averaged $1,773. Gold-stock prices should be much higher with $2,391 gold across 2024. A big gold-stock revaluation higher in 2025 is certainly supported by fundamentals. For many years now, after every quarterly earnings season I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results reported by GDX’s 25 largest stocks.
All that data can be distilled down into quarterly sector unit profits, which simply subtract the GDX top 25’s average mining costs from average gold prices. During 2020 the last time GDX averaged similar levels, the major gold miners averaged $758-per-ounce earnings. Yet in the first three quarters of 2024, that surged 29.3% to a record $980 per ounce. And Q4’s numbers being added in will push that average even higher.
This just-finished last quarter averaged dazzling record $2,661 gold prices, easily besting Q3’s previous record $2,477. In 2024’s first three quarters, the GDX-top-25 gold miners averaged all-in sustaining costs of $1,315 per ounce. Many of them have guided to lower AISCs in Q4 on better production. But even if we ignore that and conservatively assume $1,400, the major gold miners are looking at $1,261 Q4 unit profits!
That would trounce the GDX top 25’s previous $1,099 record, and boost full-year-2024 average quarterly unit profits to $1,050. That would be 39% above 2020’s levels when GDX last traded near 2024’s average! During their last five reported quarters, these GDX-top-25 sector unit profits have soared 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0% year-over-year! Q4’24 at $1,261 would achieve another 91.3%-YoY leap.
The major gold miners are earning money hand-over-fist achieving epic record profits at these awesome prevailing gold prices, yet traders are totally ignoring that. Such valuation anomalies can fester for some time in markets, but never indefinitely. All stock-market sectors and individual stocks eventually migrate to some reasonable multiple of their underlying corporate earnings. Gold stocks won’t prove any different.
Obviously a major-paradigm-shift gold-stock revaluation in 2025 will require big capital inflows, meaning traders will have to grow interested in this sector. If that didn’t happen in 2021, 2022, 2023, or very much in 2024, then why would it manifest in 2025? Because of gold’s own revaluation in 2024! A year ago gold had spent several long years failing to decisively break out above secular upper resistance around $2,050.
So the great majority of traders were apathetic, not expecting much from gold in 2024. Yet even with American stock investors totally ignoring gold to chase the AI-stock bubble, it still powered 27.2% higher last year achieving 41 nominal record closes! Other buyers saw gold’s potential and flooded in, including Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian jewelry consumers. Their capital inflows fueled gold’s revaluation.
Similarly in 2025, there’s likely to be peripheral traders who recognize gold stocks are deeply undervalued relative to much-higher gold prices. It probably won’t be individual investors who lead the charge into this sector, they are too emotional and like to chase momentum. Professional fund managers who are value investors are likely to be the gold-stock-buying vanguard. They will recognize gold miners’ record profits first.
The capital inflows from their early buying will drive GDX higher, growing awareness and interest in this high-potential sector. The longer and higher gold stocks rally, the more other traders will take notice and jump on that bandwagon accelerating those gains. As we saw in gold last year, this self-feeding-buying dynamic is very powerful. Traders will realize gold stocks shouldn’t be trading as if gold was down near $1,775.
While gold miners’ overdue revaluation higher will primarily be fundamentally-driven, GDX’s technicals are also really bullish heading into 2025. This chart covering the last several years shows gold stocks’ mounting secular uptrend. In recent weeks major gold stocks were smashed to seriously-oversold levels well under GDX’s 200-day-moving-average baseline, almost back down to their uptrend’s secular support.
While gold’s own monster upleg remains alive and well, the miners’ stocks have suffered a sharp 23.4% selloff in recent months. That has really tainted sentiment, leaving this sector deeply out of favor as 2025 dawns. The primary driver was gold’s own post-election pullback on the US dollar surging on Trump’s win portending slower Fed rate cuts. I analyzed all that a couple weeks ago in an essay on the Fed testing gold.
This latest gold-stock selling is way overdone relative to the metal itself. At worst gold merely retreated 8.0% into mid-November, well under a 10%+ correction. On New Year’s Eve, gold was only 5.8% under late October’s latest nominal-record close. So GDX plunging 23.1% in that span for huge 4.0x downside leverage is excessive. That argues a V-bounce bottoming into a sharp mean-reversion surge is imminent...
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2月前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 22, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 262k, down 13.5k.
Last week, gold added 0.6 percent but left a large upper wick; a lower high of $2,761 was formed versus a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30. The downward momentum continued this week, as the metal dropped 1.2 percent to $2,645/ounce. Gold bugs at the same time can take solace in the fact that buying interest showed up at the nearest support.
On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s. These levels can now provide support. In the last three sessions this week, bids were waiting around $2,600.
The metal can rally. If the 50-day at $2,684 is recaptured, trendline resistance from the October high lies at $2,750.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3月前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26451 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26461 and support forming below at 25858. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 26497. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26053. Additional support is to be found at 25415. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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