TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Down Slightly Yet Industry Stable Reaching Over 17M SAAR for Second Consecutive ...
2019年4月25日 - 10:00PM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,381,835 units in
April, down 2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of active selling days in 2018. This month’s seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an
estimated 17.1 million units for the month, the second consecutive
month this year to reach the 17M SAAR milestone. Excluding fleet
sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light
trucks to be 1,113,309 units, a decrease of 5.4% from a year ago.
“In line with the trend this year, the auto industry continues
to show some struggles in retail sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief
Economist of TrueCar’s ALG. “Nevertheless, reaching 17M SAAR for
the second consecutive month is an indicator of health and
stability and consumers continue to remain confident in a robust
economic environment.”
Average incentive spending by automakers should reach an
estimated $3,488 per vehicle in April down $152 or 4.2% from a year
ago, and down 4.2% from March 2019. For April, ALG estimates
average transaction price (ATP) for new light vehicles was $34,319,
up 2.9% from a year ago, while incentives as a percentage of ATP
was at 10.2% down 6.9% year-over-year.
While most automakers continued the downward trend in incentive
spending, Honda and Subaru bucked the trend and raised incentive
spend this month.
“Honda’s flagship CR-V is likely increasing incentives in order
to gain a pricing advantage over a newly re-designed RAV4,” said
Cari Crane, Director of Industry Insights at TrueCar’s ALG. “This
would indicate that the battle for the compact-SUV segment leader
is already heating up.”
ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) assessed whether OEMs are
gaining market share through consumer demand or through incentives.
Luxury utility leaders Mercedes, BMW and Audi are all expected to
be down in this month’s RHI.
“Tier one luxury brands may be raising incentives in order to
hold market share and offset increases in ATP. Tariff uncertainty
could also be playing into this decision, with automakers
attempting to get ahead of tariff decisions that could drive down
consumer demand,” added Crane.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes
in retail market share relative to
changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge
whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven.
An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance
of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding
incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing
incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
Forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume:
Total Unit Sales (adjusted for
same number of selling days as 2018). Tesla forecast include since
March 2019.
Manufacturer |
April 2019 Forecast |
April 2018 |
YoY %Change |
BMW |
28,900 |
27,324 |
1.5% |
Daimler |
29,229 |
30,115 |
-6.8% |
FCA |
174,048 |
184,149 |
-9.3% |
Ford |
196,313 |
203,856 |
-7.6% |
GM |
240,568 |
236,116 |
-2.2% |
Honda |
133,168 |
125,701 |
1.7% |
Hyundai |
57,158 |
55,035 |
-0.3% |
Kia |
53,551 |
50,585 |
1.6% |
Nissan |
94,305 |
87,764 |
3.2% |
Subaru |
56,108 |
53,170 |
1.3% |
Tesla |
15,000 |
4,250 |
238.8% |
Toyota |
195,521 |
192,348 |
-2.4% |
Volkswagen
Group |
58,411 |
53,762 |
4.3% |
Industry |
1,381,835 |
1,354,237 |
-2.0% |
|
|
|
|
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit April2019 Forecast |
Incentive per UnitApril 2018 |
Incentive ChangeYOY |
BMW |
$5,467 |
$5,481 |
-0.2% |
Daimler |
$5,685 |
$5,745 |
-1.0% |
FCA |
$4,133 |
$4,354 |
-5.1% |
Ford |
$4,078 |
$4,401 |
-7.3% |
GM |
$4,799 |
$5,239 |
-8.4% |
Honda |
$2,120 |
$1,632 |
29.9% |
Hyundai |
$2,447 |
$2,755 |
-11.2% |
Kia |
$3,396 |
$3,775 |
-10.0% |
Nissan |
$3,532 |
$3,099 |
14.0% |
Subaru |
$1,459 |
$1,344 |
8.6% |
Toyota |
$2,205 |
$2,249 |
-2.0% |
Volkswagen
Group |
$3,545 |
$3,578 |
-0.9% |
Industry |
$3,488 |
$3,640 |
-4.2% |
|
|
|
|
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
April 2019Forecast |
April 2018 |
March2019 |
YOY %change |
MOM %change |
BMW |
$56,533 |
$52,205 |
$55,335 |
8.3% |
2.2% |
Daimler |
$64,418 |
$60,752 |
$64,468 |
6.0% |
-0.1% |
FCA |
$36,259 |
$34,090 |
$35,637 |
6.4% |
1.7% |
Ford |
$39,183 |
$37,404 |
$38,692 |
4.8% |
1.3% |
GM |
$35,911 |
$34,768 |
$37,299 |
3.3% |
-3.7% |
Honda |
$28,072 |
$27,991 |
$28,655 |
0.3% |
-2.0% |
Hyundai |
$22,901 |
$22,701 |
$23,684 |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
Kia |
$23,915 |
$23,027 |
$22,770 |
3.9% |
5.0% |
Nissan |
$27,404 |
$27,736 |
$27,884 |
-1.2% |
-1.7% |
Subaru |
$29,305 |
$27,918 |
$29,237 |
5.0% |
0.2% |
Toyota |
$32,358 |
$32,309 |
$32,375 |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
Volkswagen
Group |
$37,081 |
$36,289 |
$37,311 |
2.2% |
-0.6% |
Industry |
$34,319 |
$33,340 |
$34,383 |
2.9% |
-0.2 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is
not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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