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2週前
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Could Bounce Off Bullish Trendline
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | February 26, 2025
• Netflix stock could climb back towards its recent peak
• Options are affordable for those who want to speculate
The shares of streaming giant Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) pulled back alongside the broader market, logging losses in the past four sessions after hitting a Feb. 14 record high of $1,064.50. However, the security was last seen 2.3% higher to trade at $998.53, approaching a historically bullish trendline that fueled its climb to that peak and could provide additional tailwinds.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rock White, NFLX is nearing its 50-day moving average after spending a significant stretch above it. Specifically, 80% of the past two months, and eight of the last 10 trading days. In the last three years, the stock triggered this signal nine times, with a one-month gain occurring 67% of the time and averaging a 5.8% return. A similar move would place NFLX back above $1,050.
Despite the recent dip, the stock remains a strong performer, boasting an 12.2% year-to-date lead and a 66.3% gain over the past 12 months. The equity has climbed higher every month since August and is on track for its seventh consecutive monthly win.
Bearish bets have been piling up over the past two weeks, with Netflix stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranking in the 88th percentile of its annual range. This suggests an unusually high preference for puts over calls among traders, even as the equity trades near record highs.
Meanwhile, options appear to offer an attractive way to speculate on NFLX's next move. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 31% ranks in the 16th percentile of its annual range, indicating relatively low volatility expectations -- a boon for premium buyers.
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2月前
Netflix’s Record Surge
By: TrendSpider | January 23, 2025
Key Takeaways
• Record Growth: Netflix added 18.9M subscribers in Q4 2024, reaching 301M+ globally—a 16% YoY increase.
• Financial Surge: Revenue hit $10.25B (+16% YoY), EPS doubled to $4.27, & stock rose 15% to $953.99, boosting market cap to $370B.
• Strategic Wins: Price hikes and hit content like Squid Game and live events drove record sign-ups and solidified market dominance.
Netflix Achieves Record-Breaking Growth
NFLX (Netflix) reported unprecedented success in Q4 2024, adding 18.9 million new subscribers, significantly surpassing Wall Street’s expectation of 8.9 million. This brought its total subscriber base to over 301 million, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. This quarterly growth eclipsed Netflix’s previous record of 15 million subscribers in Q1 2020 during the pandemic.
On the financial side, revenue surged 16% YoY to $10.25 billion, while earnings per share jumped to $4.27, more than doubling prior figures. The company has raised its revenue forecast for 2025 to between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, projecting approximately 14% growth.
Strategic Initiatives and Market Impact
Netflix’s strategic focus on price adjustments and content diversification drove these results. Subscription prices were raised in key markets, with the popular U.S. plan increasing to $17.99/month. Content like Squid Game and live events, including the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing match, attracted record viewership and sign-ups.
The announcement triggered a nearly 15% surge in Netflix’s stock, peaking at $988 and closing at $953.99, boosting its market capitalization to $370 billion—$50 billion more than Disney and Warner Bros Discovery combined. With a robust content strategy, higher revenue per user, and a strong financial outlook, Netflix is positioned for continued growth and dominance in the streaming industry.
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2月前
Netflix Q4 results top estimates after blowout subscriber numbers
By: Investing | January 21, 2025
Netflix surged in afterhours trading Tuesday after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results as subscriber adds soared.
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares rose more than 9% in afterhours trading.
In the three months ended Dec. 31, Netflix reported earnings of $4.27 a share on revenue of $10.25B, topping estimates of $4.27 on revenue of $10.13B.
The streaming giant raked in 18.9M users in Q4, well above the 9.2M estimated, underpinned by a strong content slate and growing demand for its ads tier membership.
In Q4, the company's ads tier accounted for over 55% of sign-ups in its ads countries and membership on its ads plan grew nearly 30% quarter over quarter.
"A top priority in 2025 is to improve our offering for advertisers so that we can substantially grow our advertising revenue," the company said.
Looking ahead, the company projects 2025 revenue of $43.5B to $44.5B, $0.5B higher than its prior forecast range, compared with analysts estimates for $43.6B.
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2月前
NFLX (Netflix) heads into earnings week with a history of delivering strong average returns...
By: TrendSpider | January 17, 2025
• Netflix heads into earnings week with a history of delivering strong average returns—over 7% over the past decade and over 10% since 2005. Expectations are high, with Q4 earnings projected at $4.20 per share (+69.2% YoY), $10.12B in revenue (+13.5% YoY), and a record 290.9M subscribers. Notably, Netflix will discontinue reporting quarterly subscriber numbers after this release, shifting focus to revenue and profit metrics.
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2月前
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Earns Upgrade Ahead of Earnings
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 16, 2025
• Netflix will report fourth-quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday, Jan. 21
• NFLX could see a wave of bull notes if the streaming giant reports upbeat earnings
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, January 21. The streaming giant is looking to follow up its October post-earnings surge with another strong performance.
Historically, Netflix stock has had a mixed bag of post-earnings reactions, finishing four out of eight next-day sessions higher over the past two years. After its October report, the stock soared 11.1%. This time around, options traders are pricing in a 9.4% move for NFLX, regardless of direction, slightly more than the 8.6% average post-earnings swing over the last eight reports.
Shares are up 1% to $856.50 at last glance, receiving a boost from an upgrade to "buy" from Seaport Research Partners. BMO and Oppenheimer have chimed in with price-target hikes of their own to $1,000 and $1,040, respectively, from $825 and $1,065. Despite the 25% gain in the past three months and an all-time high of $941.75 on Dec. 11, Netflix stock is down 3.8% year-to-date.
An outstanding earnings report could shake loose some of the analysts on the fence. Of the 41 brokerages covering Netflix, 17 maintain a "hold" or worse rating.
Options traders are showing a preference for puts ahead of earnings. NFLX's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.02 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range. This indicates an unusually high demand for puts in the last two weeks, and these traders could be forced to capitulate in the event of a post-earnings move to the upside.
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2月前
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Could Soon Stage a Rebound
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | January 7, 2024
• Netflix stock has pulled back to its bullish 50-day moving average
• The stock pulled back from last month's record highs, but has support in place
Streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has pulled back from its recent Dec. 11 record high of $941.75, last seen down 0.3% at $879.32 and headed for its seventh loss in the last eight days. The shares are still up 81.2% year over year, however, and could soon bounce back from their short-term drop.
Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rock White, NFLX is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average after a lengthy period above it (defined by White as 80% of the time over the past two months and 8 of the last 10 trading days). The stock has seen eight similar signals over the past three years, after which it was higher one month later 63% of the time with an average 4.6% gain.
There is plenty of room for upgrades that could give the stock a boost, as 17 of the 31 analysts in coverage carry a "hold" or worse rating. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $858.29 is still a slight discount to current levels, which could bring price-target hikes.
A shift in the options pits could provide tailwinds as well, as options traders have been more bearish than usual. This is per NFLX's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.11 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than 97% of readings from the past year.
Options look like a good way to go when weighing in on Netflix stock, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SV) of 27% that ranks in the 9th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.
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3月前
Netflix Stock Could Be Next in Line for a Split After it Hits $1,100
By: 24/7 Wall St. | November 29, 2024
If there’s a mega-cap tech titan out there that’s overdue for a stock split, it’s Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). After an impressive parabolic surge, NFLX shares now find themselves flirting with $900 per share.
Undoubtedly, having the stock hit such a level would have been difficult to imagine two and a half years ago when the name bottomed out in the $180 range after suffering a devastating crash that saw over 74% in value wiped out.
With so much momentum behind the stock, which has more than tripled in two years (210% gain), perhaps the streaming giant was far more magnificent than we gave it credit for during its post-pandemic decline. Apart from retaining its streaming crown in the face of stiff industry competition by sticking with its unmatched content strategy, the company has demonstrated it’s more than willing to take a risk to transform itself in the new streaming era that includes live sporting events.
Key Points About This Article
• As Netflix live streaming helps power shares to $1,100, a stock split seems warranted.
• The Paul vs. Tyson fight shows the magnitude of demand to be had for live sports.
• If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.
The massive silver lining to the technical difficulties experienced during Paul vs. Tyson
Undoubtedly, jumping into less familiar territory (live streaming for Netflix) can cause one to fumble the ball in a big way. Most notably, the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match in November frustrated many fans when a profound number of viewers (around 107 million globally) caused buffering issues and outages. Perhaps Jake Paul put it best: the vast number of fans “broke the site.” Despite the horrid technical issues that plagued the event, however, shares reacted positively.
Simply put, demand was off the charts, and more similar live events may be key to boosting growth. Further, technical difficulties can be conquered. And if there’s a firm that can learn the ropes (no pun intended), it’s Netflix, which rose to glory by navigating far outside its comfort zone, making a few mistakes along the way. Such mistakes are more than forgivable, in my view, especially as Netflix learns and grows its new drivers.
Whether such new growth, like that experienced in live-streaming events, can help propel NFLX stock well into the quadruple-digits to warrant a split in the new year remains to be seen.
Either way, today’s share price, $872, and change per share seems quite hefty for a new retail investor who’s just starting out.
Of course, the advent of buying partial shares at some brokerages enables many to start a diversified portfolio, including shares of companies with very high prices, with a smaller investable sum. That said, stock splits are never a bad thing, especially in this environment where retail demand has grown to become quite lofty.
This bullish analyst sees NFLX stock soaring to $1,100. A split could follow shortly after.
Recently, Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak hiked his price target on NFLX stock to $1,100, citing technical shortcomings of the Paul vs. Tyson fight as nothing more than a “successful learning experience.” He’s right. If Tyson were to fight Logan Paul, the brother of Jake Paul, next, I’m sure we’ll all be tuning back in despite bad experiences with the quality of the previous stream.
Though it’s hard to tell what the next big live event will be, I think it’s safe to say that Netflix now knows the magnitude of what it faces. And with that, it’ll (hopefully) have the improvements in place to deliver a more seamless stream. Up ahead, Mr. Wlodarczak is also bullish on the potential to be had in sports. He’s right on the money. Netflix knows how to draw in viewers. And if it can support them, I’d bet they’d be that much more willing to not only stick with their subscriptions but pay higher prices.
Up ahead, Netflix has two NFL games to stream on Christmas Day. And shortly after that, some WWE Monday Night Raw will be up to the plate. Though I don’t expect either live event to draw in the crowds that Paul vs. Tyson did, I do find that each event will help strengthen Netflix’s live-streaming muscles.
Who knows? Perhaps they’ll grow to become strong enough to support more than 100 million concurrent viewers come the next big live fight event. Whether it features Mike Tyson and one of the Pauls remains to be seen.
Either way, strength in live-streaming sports is real. And as Netflix stock makes a move to $1,100, one has to think a split will be penciled in at some point.
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4月前
Netflix Stock Reverses Losses on Beyoncé Halftime Buzz
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 18, 2024
• NFLX is brushing off glitches during its broadcast of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight
• NFLX sports a 69.5% lead for 2024
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is up 0.3% at $825.41 at last glance, amid news that Beyoncé will perform the halftime show in the Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans Christmas Day game that the company will exclusively stream. Shares are reversing premarket losses that followed several glitches during its broadcast of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight on Saturday -- its biggest live sports event ever.
The equity has taken a breather from its Nov. 14, record closing high of $837.26, but is still on track for its fifth win in the last six sessions. NFX is trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average after a brief dip below it in mid-October, and sports are up 69.5% lead for 2024.
Short-term options traders lean bearish. This is per Netflix stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.34 that sits higher than 94% of readings from the last 12 months.
Now looks like a good time to weigh in on NFLX's next moves with options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23% stands in the 2nd percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in extremely low volatility expectations at the moment.
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